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Bayesian Estimation of NOEM Models: Identification and Inference in Small Samples

In: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments

Author

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  • Enrique Martínez-García
  • Diego Vilán
  • Mark A. Wynne
Abstract
Open-Economy models are central to the discussion of the trade-offs monetary policy faces in an increasingly more globalized world (e.g., Marínez-García & Wynne, 2010), but bringing them to the data is not without its challenges. Controlling for misspecification bias, we trace the problem of uncertainty surrounding structural parameter estimation in the context of a fully specified New Open Economy Macro (NOEM) model partly to sample size. We suggest that standard macroeconomic time series with a coverage of less than forty years may not be informative enough for some parameters of interest to be recovered with precision. We also illustrate how uncertainty also arises from weak structural identification, irrespective of the sample size. This remains a concern for empirical research and we recommend estimation with simulated observations before using actual data as a way of detecting structural parameters that are prone to weak identification. We also recommend careful evaluation and documentation of the implementation strategy (specially in the selection of observables) as it can have significant effects on the strength of identification of key model parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Martínez-García & Diego Vilán & Mark A. Wynne, 2012. "Bayesian Estimation of NOEM Models: Identification and Inference in Small Samples," Advances in Econometrics, in: DSGE Models in Macroeconomics: Estimation, Evaluation, and New Developments, pages 137-199, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    • Handle: RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-9053(2012)0000028007
    DOI: 10.1108/S0731-9053(2012)0000028007
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    Cited by:

    1. Pancrazi, Roberto & Seoane, Hernán D. & Vukotić, Marija, 2020. "Welfare gains of bailouts in a sovereign default model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Martínez-García, Enrique, 2021. "Get the lowdown: The international side of the fall in the U.S. natural rate of interest," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    3. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Rudi Steinbach, 2014. "A mediumsized open economy DSGE model of South Africa," Working Papers 6319, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Enrique Martínez-García, 2015. "The Global Component of Local Inflation: Revisiting the Empirical Content of the Global Slack Hypothesis with Bayesian Methods," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Monetary Policy in the Context of the Financial Crisis: New Challenges and Lessons, volume 24, pages 51-112, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2019_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Pancrazi, Roberto & Seoane, Hernán D. & Vukotić, Marija, 2020. "Welfare gains of bailouts in a sovereign default model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Perazzi, Elena, 2022. "Sovereign Bailouts: Are Ex-Ante Conditions Useful?," MPRA Paper 113462, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Rangan Gupta & Hylton Hollander & Rudi Steinbach, 2020. "Forecasting output growth using a DSGE-based decomposition of the South African yield curve," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 351-378, January.
    9. Enrique Martínez-García & Mark A. Wynne, 2014. "Assessing Bayesian Model Comparison in Small Samples," Advances in Econometrics, in: Bayesian Model Comparison, volume 34, pages 71-115, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Zhang, Ren & Martínez-García, Enrique & Wynne, Mark A. & Grossman, Valerie, 2021. "Ties that bind: Estimating the natural rate of interest for small open economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    11. Ivashchenko, Sergey & Mutschler, Willi, 2020. "The effect of observables, functional specifications, model features and shocks on identification in linearized DSGE models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 280-292.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global slack hypothesis; new open economy macroeconomics; Phillips curve; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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