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James Morley

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Tino Berger & Paul David Boll & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2021. "Cyclical signals from the labor market," CAMA Working Papers 2021-91, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Annual Review 2021
      by noreply@blogger.com (David Stern) in Stochastic Trend on 2021-12-30 06:11:00
  2. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Reproducing business cycle features: what for?
      by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2009-06-29 23:22:00

Working papers

  1. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & James Morley, 2022. "A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate," Working Papers 170, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Carlos Molina, 2021. "Estimating Shadow Policy Rates in a Small Open Economy and the Role of Foreign Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 915, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.

  2. James Morley & Trung Duc Tran & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "A Simple Correction for Misspecification in Trend-Cycle Decompositions with an Application to Estimating r," CAMA Working Papers 2022-02, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, revised Mar 2023.

    Cited by:

    1. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).

  3. Morley, James & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2716, European Central Bank.

    Cited by:

    1. Haderer, Michaela, 2022. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Expectations about the Timing and Nature of Liftoff from the Lower Bound," Working Papers 2022-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    2. Tino Berger & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2023. "Cyclical consumption," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-064/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Granados, Camilo & Parra-Amado, Daniel, 2024. "Estimating the output gap after COVID: How to address unprecedented macroeconomic variations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).

  4. Tino Berger & Paul David Boll & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2021. "Cyclical signals from the labor market," CAMA Working Papers 2021-91, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Tino Berger & Christian Ochsner, 2022. "Tracking the German Business Cycle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202212, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    2. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    3. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.

  5. Güneş Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "Have the driving forces of inflation changed in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Working Papers 896, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Günes Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "What drives inflation in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 21-36, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Reichold, Karsten & Wagner, Martin & Damjanovic, Milan & Drenkovska, Marija, 2022. "Sources and Channels of Nonlinearities and Instabilities of the Phillips Curve: Results for the Euro Area and Its Member States," IHS Working Paper Series 40, Institute for Advanced Studies.

  6. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2020. "Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Discussion Paper Series 2001, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.

    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Alexander Beames & Mariano Kulish & Nadine Yamout, 2022. "Fiscal Policy and the Slowdown in Trend Growth in an Open Economy," Working Papers 143, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    3. Fernando Delbianco & Andrés Fioriti & Fernando Tohmé, 2021. "Markov Chains, Eigenvalues and the Stabilityof Economic Growth Processes," Working Papers 88, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    4. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & James Morley, 2022. "A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate," Working Papers 170, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    5. Francesco Furlanetto & Antoine Lepetit & Ørjan Robstad & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Pål Ulvedal, 2021. "Estimating Hysteresis Effects," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Baquedano, Felix & Zereyesus, Yacob Abrehe & Christensen, Cheryl & Valdes, Constanza, 2021. "COVID-19 Working Paper: International Food Security Assessment, 2020-2030: COVID-19 Update and Impacts of Food Insecurity," Administrative Publications 309399, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    7. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    8. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2023. "Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    9. Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
    10. Antonio Fatás & Sanjay R. Singh, 2023. "Supply or Demand? Policy Makers' Confusion in the Presence of Hysteresis," Working Paper Series 2023-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
    12. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar & Dimitrije Ruzic, 2023. "The Productivity Slowdown in Advanced Economies: Common Shocks or Common Trends?," Working Paper Series 2023-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    13. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2024. "Time-varying investment dynamics in the USA," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2024_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    14. Bram van Os & Dick van Dijk, 2020. "Accelerating Peak Dating in a Dynamic Factor Markov-Switching Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 20-057/VI, Tinbergen Institute, revised 14 Dec 2020.
    15. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2021. "Recession-specific recoveries: L’s, U’s and everything in between," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    16. Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli, 2020. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand vs. Supply," 2020 Papers pma2978, Job Market Papers.
    17. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2023. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability, Cyclical Sensitivity and Hysteresis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 238-267, February.
    18. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2021. "Debt-Secular Economic Changes and Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 21-14, Bank of Canada.
    19. Adam Check & Jeremy Piger, 2021. "Structural Breaks in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 1999-2036, December.
    20. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.

  7. Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the output gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Christiane Baumeister & Pierre Guérin, 2020. "A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth," NBER Working Papers 28014, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Tino Berger & Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Government spending effects on the business cycle in times of crisis," CQE Working Papers 10022, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    4. Klein, Paul-Olivier & Turk-Ariss, Rima, 2022. "Bank capital and economic activity," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    5. Gao, Jiti & Peng, Bin & Wu, Wei Biao & Yan, Yayi, 2024. "Time-varying multivariate causal processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 240(1).
    6. Granados, Camilo & Parra-Amado, Daniel, 2024. "Estimating the output gap after COVID: How to address unprecedented macroeconomic variations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    7. Paul-Olivier Klein & Rima Turk-Ariss, 2022. "Bank capital and economic activity," Post-Print hal-03955630, HAL.
    8. Matteo Iacopini & Aubrey Poon & Luca Rossini & Dan Zhu, 2022. "Bayesian Mixed-Frequency Quantile Vector Autoregression: Eliciting tail risks of Monthly US GDP," Papers 2209.01910, arXiv.org.
    9. Giovanni Pellegrino & Efrem Castelnuovo & Giovanni Caggiano, 2021. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy during the Great Recession," CESifo Working Paper Series 8985, CESifo.
    10. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2023. "Global and local components of output gaps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2301-2331, November.
    11. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2024. "Time-varying investment dynamics in the USA," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2024_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    12. Dubbert, Tore & Kempa, Bernd, 2024. "Nowcasting the output gap with shadow rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    13. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2024. "Macro‐financial linkages in the high‐frequency domain: Economic fundamentals and the Covid‐induced uncertainty channel in US and UK financial markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1581-1608, April.
    14. Morley, James & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2716, European Central Bank.
    15. Yfanti, Stavroula & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zopounidis, Constantin & Christopoulos, Apostolos, 2023. "Corporate credit risk counter-cyclical interdependence: A systematic analysis of cross-border and cross-sector correlation dynamics," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 813-831.
    16. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    17. Heather Anderson & Giovanni Caggiano & Farshid Vahid & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Sectoral Employment Dynamics in Australia and the COVID‐19 Pandemic," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 53(3), pages 402-414, September.
    18. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    19. Ioannis D. Vrontos & John Galakis & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Spyridon D. Vrontos, 2024. "Forecasting GDP growth: The economic impact of COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1042-1086, July.

  8. Yunho Cho & Aarti Singh & James Morley, 2019. "Household Balance Sheets and Consumption Responses to Income Shocks," 2019 Meeting Papers 788, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Koval, Pavel & Polbin , Andrey, 2020. "Evaluation of permanent and transitory shocks role in consumption and income dynamics in the Russian Federation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 57, pages 6-29.
    2. Kartik B. Athreya & Ryan Mather & Jose Mustre-del-Rio & Juan M. Sanchez, 2019. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Household Financial Distress Matters," Working Papers 2019-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 11 Sep 2023.
    3. Jorge Miranda-Pinto & Daniel P. Murphy & Kieran Walsh & Eric Young, 2020. "Saving Constraints, Debt, and the Credit Market Response to Fiscal Stimulus," Working Papers 20-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Kartik B. Athreya & Ryan Mather & Jose Mustre-del-Rio & Juan M. Sanchez, 2019. "Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel," Research Working Paper RWP 19-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

  9. Hartigan, Luke & Morley, James, 2019. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2019-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2019.

    Cited by:

    1. James Graham & Avish Sharma, 2024. "Monetary Policy and the Homeownership Rate," CAMA Working Papers 2024-43, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2024. "Can we Use High‐Frequency Data to Better Understand the Effects of Monetary Policy and its Communication? Yes and No!," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 100(328), pages 3-43, March.
    3. Le, Thi Ngoc Lan & Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Huynh, Toan Luu Duc, 2023. "Capital requirements and banks performance under Basel-III: A comparative analysis of Australian and British banks," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 146-157.
    4. Matthew Read, 2023. "Estimating the Effects of Monetary Policy in Australia Using Sign‐restricted Structural Vector Autoregressions," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(326), pages 329-358, September.
    5. Jorge Fornero & Markus Kirchner & Carlos Molina, 2021. "Estimating Shadow Policy Rates in a Small Open Economy and the Role of Foreign Factors," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 915, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Jonathan Hambur & Qazi Haque, 2023. "Can we use high-frequency yield data to better understand the effects of monetary policy and its communication? Yes and no!," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2023-03 Classification-E4, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.

  10. Cho, Yunho & Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2019. "Marginal propensities to consume before and after the Great Recession," Working Papers 2019-11, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Sep 2021.

    Cited by:

    1. Koval, Pavel & Polbin , Andrey, 2020. "Evaluation of permanent and transitory shocks role in consumption and income dynamics in the Russian Federation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 57, pages 6-29.
    2. Kartik B. Athreya & Ryan Mather & Jose Mustre-del-Rio & Juan M. Sanchez, 2019. "The Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Household Financial Distress Matters," Working Papers 2019-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 11 Sep 2023.
    3. Jorge Miranda-Pinto & Daniel P. Murphy & Kieran Walsh & Eric Young, 2020. "Saving Constraints, Debt, and the Credit Market Response to Fiscal Stimulus," Working Papers 20-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Fiona Price & Benjamin Beckers & Gianni La Cava, 2019. "The Effect of Mortgage Debt on Consumer Spending: Evidence from Household-level Data," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2019-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    5. Kartik B. Athreya & Ryan Mather & Jose Mustre-del-Rio & Juan M. Sanchez, 2019. "Consumption in the Great Recession: The Financial Distress Channel," Research Working Paper RWP 19-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.

  11. Kevin Lee & James Morley & Kian Ong & Kalvinder Shields, 2019. "Measuring the fiscal multiplier when plans take time to implement," CAMA Working Papers 2019-13, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Kevin Lee & James Morley & Kalvinder Shields & Madeleine Sui-Lay Tan, 2018. "The Australian real-time fiscal database: An overview and an illustration of its use in analysing planned and realised fiscal policies," Discussion Papers 2018/11, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).

  12. James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," CAMA Working Papers 2017-46, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C. C. Chan & Xuewen Yu, 2022. "Fast and Accurate Variational Inference for Large Bayesian VARs with Stochastic Volatility," Papers 2206.08438, arXiv.org.
    2. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    3. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "A century of gaps: Untangling business cycles from secular trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    4. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Tino Berger & Tore Dubbert, 2022. "Government spending effects on the business cycle in times of crisis," CQE Working Papers 10022, Center for Quantitative Economics (CQE), University of Muenster.
    6. Tino Berger & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2023. "Cyclical consumption," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-064/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    8. Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the output gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    9. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
    10. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," MPRA Paper 91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2023. "The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real‐time reliability tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1101-1111, November.
    12. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    13. G. Cubadda & S. Grassi & B. Guardabascio, 2022. "The Time-Varying Multivariate Autoregressive Index Model," Papers 2201.07069, arXiv.org.
    14. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2020. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity," Working Paper 2020/7, Norges Bank.
    15. Dubbert, Tore & Kempa, Bernd, 2024. "Nowcasting the output gap with shadow rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    16. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Němec, Daniel, 2022. "Assessing uncertainty of output gap estimates: Evidence from Visegrad countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Morley, James & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2716, European Central Bank.
    18. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    19. Ochsner, Christian & Other, Lars & Thiel, Esther & Zuber, Christopher, 2024. "Demographic aging and long-run economic growth in Germany," Working Papers 02/2024, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.
    20. Manuel González-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2022. "When are trend–cycle decompositions of GDP reliable?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(5), pages 2417-2460, May.
    21. Christian Ochsner & Christopher Zuber, 2022. "Die Konjunkturbereinigung der Schuldenbremse: ein Plädoyer für methodische Reformen [The Cyclical Adjustment Procedure of the German Debt Brake: a Plea for Methodical Reforms]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 102(11), pages 822-825, November.
    22. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2023. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability, Cyclical Sensitivity and Hysteresis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 238-267, February.
    23. Alessandro Barbarino & Travis J. Berge & Han Chen & Andrea Stella, 2020. "Which Output Gap Estimates Are Stable in Real Time and Why?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-102, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. Ioannis D. Vrontos & John Galakis & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Spyridon D. Vrontos, 2024. "Forecasting GDP growth: The economic impact of COVID‐19 pandemic," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 1042-1086, July.

  13. Chatterjee, Arpita & Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2017. "Estimating Household Consumption Insurance," Working Papers 2017-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Jul 2019.

    Cited by:

    1. J. Carter Braxton & Kyle F. Herkenhoff & Jonathan L. Rothbaum & Lawrence Schmidt, 2021. "Changing Income Risk across the US Skill Distribution: Evidence from a Generalized Kalman Filter," NBER Working Papers 29567, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dirk Krueger & Fulin Li & Harald Uhlig, 2024. "Neoclassical Growth Transition Dynamics with One-Sided Commitment," NBER Working Papers 32880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. James Bullard & Aarti Singh & Jacek Suda, 2024. "Optimal Macroeconomic Policies in a Heterogeneous World," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(3), pages 991-1041, September.
    4. Yunho Cho & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2024. "Did marginal propensities to consume change with the housing boom and bust?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 174-199, January.
    5. Anastasia Petaykina, 2023. "Estimation of Sensitivity of Russian Household Consumption to Permanent and Transitory Income Shocks Using Kalman Filter," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 82(3), pages 110-127, September.

  14. James Morley & Irina B Panovska, 2016. "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?," Discussion Papers 2016-12, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Aslim, Erkmen Giray & Panovska, Irina & Taş, M. Anıl, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of maternity leave legislation in emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    2. Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," CAMA Working Papers 2017-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    4. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2023. "Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    6. Gonzalo Castañeda & Luis Castro Peñarrieta, 2022. "A Customized Machine Learning Algorithm for Discovering the Shapes of Recovery: Was the Global Financial Crisis Different?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 69-99, March.
    7. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2021. "Recession-specific recoveries: L’s, U’s and everything in between," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    8. Tihana Skrinjaric & Maja Bukovsak, 2022. "Improving The Calibration Of Countercyclical Capital Buffer: New Indicators Of Credit Gap In Croatia," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 31(2), pages 541-568, december.
    9. Steven M. Fazzari & James Morley & Irina B. Panovska, 2017. "When Do Discretionary Changes in Government Spending or Taxes Have Larger Effects?," Discussion Papers 2017-04, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    10. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2018. "U.S. wage growth and nonlinearities: The roles of inflation and unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 273-292.
    11. Wada, Tatsuma, 2022. "Out-of-sample forecasting of foreign exchange rates: The band spectral regression and LASSO," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    12. Biolsi, Christopher, 2023. "Do the Hamilton and Beveridge–Nelson filters provide the same information about output gaps? An empirical comparison for practitioners," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

  15. Güneş Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2016. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson filter," BIS Working Papers 584, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "Reconciling output gaps: unobserved components model and Hodrick-Prescott filter," CAMA Working Papers 2016-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2023. "Modelling output gaps in the Euro Area with structural breaks: The COVID-19 recession," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1046-1058.
    3. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    4. Cláudia Duarte & José R. Maria & Sharmin Sazedj, 2019. "Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions," Working Papers w201918, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    5. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "A century of gaps: Untangling business cycles from secular trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    6. Marco Cozzi, 2024. "An Aggression-Consistent Implementation of the Hamilton Filter," Department Discussion Papers 2401, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    7. Günes Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "What drives inflation in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 21-36, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Mihnea Constantinescu & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "Unemployment or Credit: Who Holds The Potential? Results From a Small-Open Economy," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 4, Bank of Lithuania.
    9. Hartigan, Luke & Morley, James, 2019. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," Working Papers 2019-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Nov 2019.
    10. Schüler, Yves S., 2020. "On the credit-to-GDP gap and spurious medium-term cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    11. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2019. "Okun’s Law Across Time and Frequencies," NIPE Working Papers 13/2019, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    12. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2023. "Monitoring Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 253-287, June.
    13. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    14. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    15. Tino Berger & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2023. "Cyclical consumption," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-064/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    17. Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the output gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Morley, James & Wong, Benjamin, 2018. "Estimating and Accounting for the Output Gap with Large Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2018-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2019.
    19. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I extract the output gap?," Working Paper Series 386, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    20. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 31 May 2024.
    21. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2023. "Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    22. Quast, Josefine & Wolters, Maik H., 2019. "Reliable Real-time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203535, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    23. Matthijs Breugem & Stefano Colonnello & Roberto Marfè & Francesca Zucchi, 2020. "Dynamic Equity Slope," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 626, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    24. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," MPRA Paper 91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Michael Ryan, 2020. "A Narrative Approach to Creating Instruments with Unstructured and Voluminous Text: An Application to Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers in Economics 20/10, University of Waikato.
    26. Dmitrij Celov & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2022. "Business Cycles in the EU: A Comprehensive Comparison Across Methods," Advances in Econometrics, in: Essays in Honour of Fabio Canova, volume 44, pages 99-146, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    27. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2020. "Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Discussion Paper Series 2001, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    28. Amy Y. Guisinger & Michael T. Owyang & Hannah Shell, 2018. "Comparing Measures of Potential Output," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 100(4), pages 297-316.
    29. Julien Champagne & Guillaume Poulin‐Bellisle & Rodrigo Sekkel, 2018. "The Real‐Time Properties of the Bank of Canada's Staff Output Gap Estimates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1167-1188, September.
    30. Tino Berger & Christian Ochsner, 2022. "Tracking the German Business Cycle," MAGKS Papers on Economics 202212, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    31. Tommaso Proietti, 2020. "Peaks, Gaps, and Time Reversibility of Economic Time Series," CEIS Research Paper 492, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 17 Jun 2020.
    32. Josefine Quast & Maik H. Wolters, 2023. "The Federal Reserve's output gap: The unreliability of real‐time reliability tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(7), pages 1101-1111, November.
    33. Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli, 2021. "Identifying the sources of the slowdown in growth: Demand vs. supply," Working Paper 2021/9, Norges Bank.
    34. Mr. Jiaqian Chen & Lucyna Gornicka, 2020. "Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?," IMF Working Papers 2020/024, International Monetary Fund.
    35. Szafranek, Karol, 2021. "Disentangling the sources of inflation synchronization. Evidence from a large panel dataset," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 229-245.
    36. Xianglong Liu, 2023. "Towards Better Banking Crisis Prediction: Could an Automatic Variable Selection Process Improve the Performance?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 288-312, June.
    37. James Morley & Irina B Panovska, 2017. "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?," Discussion Papers 2016-12A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    38. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
    39. Luke Hartigan & Tom Rosewall, 2024. "Nowcasting Quarterly GDP Growth during the COVID-19 Crisis Using a Monthly Activity Indicator," Working Papers 2024-15, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    40. Sun Xiaojin & Tsang Kwok Ping, 2019. "What cycles? Data detrending in DSGE models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(3), pages 1-23, June.
    41. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    42. Harris, David & Kew, Hsein & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2020. "Level shift estimation in the presence of non-stationary volatility with an application to the unit root testing problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 354-388.
    43. Biolsi, Christopher, 2021. "Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    44. Berger, Tino & Ochsner, Christian, 2022. "Robust real-time estimates of the German output gap based on a multivariate trend-cycle decomposition," Discussion Papers 35/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    45. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2023. "Systematic monetary policy in a SVAR for Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    46. Camila Figueroa & Jorge Fornero & Pablo García, 2019. "Hindsight vs. Real time measurement of the output gap: Implications for the Phillips curve in the Chilean Case," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 854, Central Bank of Chile.
    47. Yiming Chang & Xiangyuan Yu & Wei Shan & Fang Wang & Yinying Tao, 2023. "Impact of Financial Market Development, Financial Crises and Deposit Insurance on Bank Risk," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(1), pages 1-25.
    48. Leonel Muinelo-Gallo & Ronald Miranda, 2020. "The Behaviour of Social Transfers over the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence of Uruguay," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 233(2), pages 25-54, June.
    49. Luke Hartigan & Michelle Wright, 2021. "Financial Conditions and Downside Risk to Economic Activity in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2021-03, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    50. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2020. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability and Cyclical Sensitivity," Working Paper 2020/7, Norges Bank.
    51. Canova, Fabio, 2020. "FAQ: How do I measure the Output gap?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    52. Arčabić, Vladimir & Škrinjarić, Tihana, 2021. "Sharing is caring: Spillovers and synchronization of business cycles in the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 25-39.
    53. Michael Ryan, 2020. "An Anchor in Stormy Seas: Does Reforming Economic Institutions Reduce Uncertainty? Evidence from New Zealand," Working Papers in Economics 20/11, University of Waikato.
    54. Rémi Odry & Roman Mestre, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," Working Papers hal-04159759, HAL.
    55. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Němec, Daniel, 2022. "Assessing uncertainty of output gap estimates: Evidence from Visegrad countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    56. Canova, Fabio & Ferroni, Filippo, 2020. "A hitchhiker guide to empirical macro models," CEPR Discussion Papers 15446, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    57. Cansin Kemal Can, 2023. "Estimating Bohn's Fiscal Sustainability Model with Temporal Variation: Evidence from Turkey," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2023(1), pages 61-83.
    58. Morley, James & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2716, European Central Bank.
    59. Alfred A. Haug & India Power, 2022. "Government Spending Multipliers in Times of Tight and Loose Monetary Policy in New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(322), pages 249-270, September.
    60. Melolinna, Marko & Tóth, Máté, 2019. "Trend and cycle shocks in Bayesian unobserved components models for UK productivity," Bank of England working papers 826, Bank of England.
    61. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    62. Patrick M. Crowley & David Hudgins, 2021. "Okun’s law revisited in the time–frequency domain: introducing unemployment into a wavelet-based control model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(5), pages 2635-2662, November.
    63. Jaeho Kim & Sora Chon, 2022. "Bayesian estimation of the long-run trend of the US economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 461-485, February.
    64. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2023. "Credit-to-GDP Gap Estimates in Real Time: A Stable Indicator for Macroprudential Policy Making in Croatia," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(3), pages 582-614, September.
    65. Güneş Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "Have the driving forces of inflation changed in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Working Papers 896, Bank for International Settlements.
    66. Tihana Skrinjaric & Maja Bukovsak, 2022. "Improving The Calibration Of Countercyclical Capital Buffer: New Indicators Of Credit Gap In Croatia," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 31(2), pages 541-568, december.
    67. Nicolo Maffei-Faccioli, 2020. "Identifying the Sources of the Slowdown in Growth: Demand vs. Supply," 2020 Papers pma2978, Job Market Papers.
    68. Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih, 2019. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of Output Gap and Real Exchange Rate Cycles for Turkey," MPRA Paper 94698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    69. Francesco Furlanetto & Kåre Hagelund & Frank Hansen & Ørjan Robstad, 2023. "Norges Bank Output Gap Estimates: Forecasting Properties, Reliability, Cyclical Sensitivity and Hysteresis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(1), pages 238-267, February.
    70. Ademmer, Martin & Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Carstensen, Kai & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Rossian, Thies & Stolzenburg, Ulrich, 2019. "Schätzung von Produktionspotenzial und -lücke: Eine Analyse des EU-Verfahrens und mögliche Verbesserungen," Kieler Beiträge zur Wirtschaftspolitik 19, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    71. Biolsi, Christopher, 2023. "Do the Hamilton and Beveridge–Nelson filters provide the same information about output gaps? An empirical comparison for practitioners," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    72. Adam Check & Jeremy Piger, 2021. "Structural Breaks in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(8), pages 1999-2036, December.
    73. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2024.
    74. Martin Boďa & Mariana Považanová, 2023. "How credible are Okun coefficients? The gap version of Okun’s law for G7 economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 1467-1514, June.

  16. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2016. "Estimating DSGE models with Zero Interest Rate Policy," Discussion Papers 2014-32B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2021. "Identification at the Zero Lower Bound," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2855-2885, November.
    3. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2019. "A New Approach to Measuring Economic Policy Shocks, with an Application to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1082, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Jean-Guillaume Sahuc & Sarah Mouabbi, 2019. "Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies," EconomiX Working Papers 2019-2, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    5. Schorfheide, Frank & Aruoba, Boragan & Cuba-Borda, Pablo & Hilga-Flores, Kenji & Villalvazo, Sergio, 2020. "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 15388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Haderer, Michaela, 2022. "An Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Expectations about the Timing and Nature of Liftoff from the Lower Bound," Working Papers 2022-05, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    7. Georgios Georgiadis & Ben Schumann, 2019. "Dominant-Currency Pricing and the Global Output Spillovers from U.S. Dollar Appreciation," Globalization Institute Working Papers 368, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    8. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & James Morley, 2022. "A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate," Working Papers 170, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    9. Hirokuni Iiboshi & Mototsugu Shintani & Kozo Ueda, 2018. "Estimating a Nonlinear New Keynesian Model with a Zero Lower Bound for Japan," Working Papers e120, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.
    10. Böhl, Gregor & Goy, Gavin & Strobel, Felix, 2020. "A structural investigation of quantitative easing," IMFS Working Paper Series 142, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    11. Christoffel, Kai & Mazelis, Falk & Montes-Galdón, Carlos & Müller, Tobias, 2020. "Disciplining expectations and the forward guidance puzzle," Working Paper Series 2424, European Central Bank.
    12. Ascari, Guido & Mavroeidis, Sophocles, 2022. "The unbearable lightness of equilibria in a low interest rate environment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 1-17.
    13. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2018. "What do we know about the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy? A brief survey of the literature on fiscal multipliers," CAMA Working Papers 2018-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Data: How to Do It and What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 1081, Barcelona School of Economics.
    15. Christopher Gibbs & Nigel McClung, 2023. "Online Appendix to "Code and data files for "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?"," Online Appendices 22-197, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    16. McClung, Nigel, 2020. "E-stability vis-à-vis determinacy in regime-switching models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    17. Boehl, Gregor & Strobel, Felix, 2024. "Estimation of DSGE models with the effective lower bound," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    18. Belongia, Michael T. & Ireland, Peter N., 2022. "A reconsideration of money growth rules," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    19. Böhl, Gregor & Strobel, Felix, 2020. "US business cycle dynamics at the zero lower bound," Discussion Papers 65/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    20. Damioli, Giacomo & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel, 2021. "Diplomatic relations and cross-border investments in the European Union," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2021-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    21. Terry Fitzgerald & Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2024. "Is There a Stable Relationship between Unemployment and Future Inflation?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 114-142, October.
    22. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & Daniel M. Rees, 2022. "International spillovers of forward guidance shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 131-160, January.
    23. Nikolaos Charalampidis, 2020. "The U.S. Labor Income Share And Automation Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(1), pages 294-318, January.
    24. Harrison, Richard & Waldron, Matt, 2021. "Optimal policy with occasionally binding constraints: piecewise linear solution methods," Bank of England working papers 911, Bank of England.
    25. Callum Jones, 2023. "Aging, Secular Stagnation, and the Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1580-1595, November.
    26. Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of unconventional monetary policy: Comparing euro area and US models with shadow rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    27. Khalil, Makram & Strobel, Felix, 2024. "US trade policy and the US dollar," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    28. Castelnuovo, Efrem & Pellegrino, Giovanni, 2018. "Uncertainty-dependent effects of monetary policy shocks: A new-Keynesian interpretation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 277-296.
    29. Yunjong Eo & Denny Lie, 2019. "Changes in the inflation target and the comovement between inflation and the nominal interest rate," CAMA Working Papers 2019-30, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    30. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Fei Tan, 2023. "DSGE-SVt: An Econometric Toolkit for High-Dimensional DSGE Models with SV and t Errors," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 69-111, January.
    31. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2022. "Priors and the Slope of the Phillips Curve," Working Papers 165, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    32. Germán Gutiérrez & Callum Jones & Thomas Philippon, 2019. "Entry Costs and the Macroeconomy," NBER Working Papers 25609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    34. Sun, Xiaojin & Tsang, Kwok Ping, 2023. "Yield curve and the macroeconomy: Evidence from a DSGE model with housing," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    35. Wu, Jing Cynthia & Zhang, Ji, 2019. "A shadow rate New Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    36. Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco, 2021. "Efficient and robust inference of models with occasionally binding constraints," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2021-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    37. Masolo, Riccardo M. & Winant, Pablo E., 2019. "The Stochastic Lower Bound," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 54-57.
    38. Afsar, Atahan & Gallegos, José-Elías & Jaimes, Richard & Silgado-Gómez, Edgar, 2024. "A behavioral hybrid New Keynesian model: Quantifying the importance of belief formation frictions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    39. Nsafoah, Dennis & Dery, Cosmas, 2024. "Effect of conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks on housing prices in Canada," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    40. Gutiérrez, Germán & Jones, Callum & Philippon, Thomas, 2021. "Entry costs and aggregate dynamics," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(S), pages 77-91.
    41. Hollmayr, Josef, 2018. "Fiscal regimes and the (non)stationarity of debt," Discussion Papers 11/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    42. Hatcher, Michael, 2022. "Solving linear rational expectations models in the presence of structural change: Some extensions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    43. Girstmair, Stefan, 2024. "The effect of new housing supply in structural models: a forecasting performance evaluation," Working Paper Series 2895, European Central Bank.
    44. Siddhartha Chib & Minchul Shin & Fei Tan, 2020. "High-Dimensional DSGE Models: Pointers on Prior, Estimation, Comparison, and Prediction∗," Working Papers 20-35, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    45. Fang‐Shuo Chang & Shiu‐Sheng Chen & Po‐Yuan Wang, 2020. "Politics and the UK's monetary policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 67(5), pages 486-522, November.
    46. Gibbs, Christopher G. & McClung, Nigel, 2019. "Does my model predict a forward guidance puzzle?," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 19/2019, Bank of Finland.
    47. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Shadow-rate VARs," Discussion Papers 14/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    48. Yong Ma & Yiqing Jiang, 2023. "Gradual financial integration and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging market economies: evidence from China," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 18(2), pages 275-310, April.
    49. S. Bogan Aruoba & Pablo Cuba-Borda & Kenji Higa-Flores & Frank Schorfheide & Sergio Villalvazo, 2021. "Online Appendix to "Piecewise-Linear Approximations and Filtering for DSGE Models with Occasionally Binding Constraints"," Online Appendices 20-14, Review of Economic Dynamics.
    50. Gregor Boehl & Philipp Lieberknecht, 2021. "The Hockey Stick Phillips Curve and the Zero Lower Bound," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2021_266, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    51. Böhl, Gregor & Lieberknecht, Philipp, 2021. "The hockey stick Phillips curve and the effective lower bound," Discussion Papers 55/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    52. Isabel Cairó & Hess T. Chung & Francesco Ferrante & Cristina Fuentes-Albero & Camilo Morales-Jimenez & Damjan Pfajfar, 2023. "Endogenous Labor Supply in an Estimated New-Keynesian Model: Nominal versus Real Rigidities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-069, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    53. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    54. Eo, Yunjong & McClung, Nigel, 2021. "Determinacy and E-stability with interest rate rules at the zero lower bound," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 14/2021, Bank of Finland.
    55. Forster, Robert & Sun, Xiaojin, 2022. "Taming the housing crisis: An LTV macroprudential policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    56. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2018. "Macroeconomic Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Back to Keynes?," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 51(1), pages 70-86, March.
    57. Calo, Silvia & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel & Petracco Giudici, Marco & Rancan, Michela, 2021. "Has the Comprehensive Assessment made the European financial system more resilient?," JRC Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2021-08, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.

  17. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2015. "Debt and Financial Market Contagion," Discussion Papers 2015-02, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2024. "Financial contagion and networks among the oil and BRICS stock markets during seven episodes of crisis events," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    2. Neha Seth & Monica Sighania, 2017. "Financial market contagion: selective review of reviews," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 391-408, November.
    3. Aboagye, Ernest & Ko, Stanley Iat-Meng & Lo, Chia Chun & Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Peng, Liang, 2024. "A contagion test with unspecified heteroscedastic errors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    4. Samuel Tabot Enow, 2023. "Financial Contagion and Duration: Evidence from International Financial Markets," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(4), pages 1-7, July.
    5. Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Yang, Rui & Zheng, Xin & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2023. "Evaluations of policy contagion for new energy vehicle industry in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    6. Imen Bedoui-Belghith & Slaheddine Hallara & Faouzi Jilani, 2023. "Crisis transmission degree measurement under crisis propagation model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-27, January.
    7. Xing, Xiaoyun & Xu, Zihan & Chen, Ying & Ouyang, WenPei & Deng, Jing & Pan, Huanxue, 2023. "The impact of the Russia–Ukraine conflict on the energy subsector stocks in China: A network-based approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Cevik, Emrah Ismail & Caliskan Terzioglu, Hande & Kilic, Yunus & Bugan, Mehmet Fatih & Dibooglu, Sel, 2024. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk: Evidence from global stock markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    9. Greenwood-Nimmo, Matthew & Nguyen, Viet Hoang & Shin, Yongcheol, 2023. "What is mine is yours: Sovereign risk transmission during the European debt crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

  18. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2015. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Chatterjee, Arpita & Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2017. "Estimating Household Consumption Insurance," Working Papers 2017-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Jul 2019.
    2. Arpita Chatterjee & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2017. "Full Information Estimation of Household Income Risk and Consumption Insurance," Discussion Papers 2017-07, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

  19. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2015. "The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2015-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Nicolas Moumni & Benaissa Nahhal, 2014. "Impact of Liquidity Level on the Monetary Policy Transmission Effectiveness of the Moroccan Central Bank (Bank Al Maghrib)," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 801-818.
    2. Li, Huan & Ni, Jinlan & Xu, Yueli & Zhan, Minghua, 2021. "Monetary policy and its transmission channels: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    3. Jorge David Quintero Otero, 2015. "Impactos de la política monetaria y canales de transmisión en países de América Latina con esquema de inflación objetivo," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 33(76), pages 61-75, April.
    4. Lombardi, Domenico & Siklos, Pierre L. & Xie, Xiangyou, 2018. "Monetary policy transmission in systemically important economies and China’s impact," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 61-79.
    5. Borrallo Egea, Fructuoso & Hierro, Luis Ángel, 2019. "Transmission of monetary policy in the US and EU in times of expansion and crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 763-783.
    6. Afsin Sahin, 2019. "Loom of Symmetric Pass-Through," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-25, February.
    7. Fatih OKUR & Ömer AKKUŞ & Atakan DURMAZ, 2019. "The effectiveness of the monetary transmission mechanism channel in Turkey," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 10, pages 161-180, June.
    8. Evans, Olaniyi, 2021. "The Curious Case of Petro-Monetary Transmission Mechanism in Oil-Producing Countries: An Analysis of the Effect of Oil Price on Inflation in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 118198, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Luigi Oddo & Mile Bosnjak, 2021. "A comparative analysis of the monetary policy transmission channels in the U.S: a wavelet-based approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(38), pages 4448-4463, August.

  20. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2015. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Chatterjee, Arpita & Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2017. "Estimating Household Consumption Insurance," Working Papers 2017-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Jul 2019.
    2. Kenneth D. West, 2017. "Hansen and Sargent's Recursive Models of Dynamic Linear Economies: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 55(1), pages 173-181, March.
    3. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2011. "Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2011-07, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    4. Arpita Chatterjee & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2017. "Full Information Estimation of Household Income Risk and Consumption Insurance," Discussion Papers 2017-07, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    5. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2022. "The great moderation: updated evidence with joint tests for multiple structural changes in variance and persistence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1193-1218, March.
    6. Richard Higgins, C., 2020. "Financial frictions and changing macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Higgins, C. Richard, 2017. "Estimating general equilibrium models with stochastic volatility and changing parameters," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 163-170.

  21. Donayre, Luiggi & Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2014. "Improving Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Intervals for Threshold Parameters in Finite Samples," Working Papers 2014-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Takatoshi Sasaki & Hiroki Yamamoto & Jouchi Nakajima, 2023. "Nonlinear Input Cost Pass-through to Consumer Prices: A Threshold Approach," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 23-E-9, Bank of Japan.
    3. Nebot, César & Beyaert, Arielle & García-Solanes, José, 2019. "New insights into the nonlinearity of Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 202-210.

  22. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating the Expected Duration of the Zero Lower Bound in DSGE Models with Forward Guidance," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2014n16, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.

    Cited by:

    1. Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2019. "A New Approach to Measuring Economic Policy Shocks, with an Application to Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy," Working Papers 1082, Barcelona School of Economics.
    2. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating DSGE models with forward guidance," Discussion Papers 2014-32A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    3. Eric Gaus, 2014. "Adaptive Learning, Heterogeneous Expectations and Forward Guidance," Working Papers 14-03, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    4. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2018. "Measuring Exchange Rate, Price, and Output Dynamics at the Effective Lower Bound," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1243-1266, December.

  23. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Enders, Walter & Li, Jing, 2015. "Trend-cycle decomposition allowing for multiple smooth structural changes in the trend of US real GDP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 71-81.

  24. Mariano Kulish & James Morley & Tim Robinson, 2014. "Estimating DSGE models with forward guidance," Discussion Papers 2014-32A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Masolo, Riccardo M. & Winant, Pablo E., 2019. "The Stochastic Lower Bound," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 54-57.
    2. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Implementing the zero lower bound in an estimated regime-switching DSGE model," Working Paper 2016/3, Norges Bank.
    3. Eric Gaus, 2014. "Adaptive Learning, Heterogeneous Expectations and Forward Guidance," Working Papers 14-03, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    4. Tolga Özden, 2021. "Heterogeneous Expectations and the Business Cycle at the Effective Lower Bound," Working Papers 714, DNB.
    5. Dmitry Kreptsev & Sergei Seleznev, 2018. "Forecasting for the Russian Economy Using Small-Scale DSGE Models," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(2), pages 51-67, June.
    6. Andrew Binning & Junior Maih, 2016. "Forecast uncertainty in the neighborhood of the effective lower bound: How much asymmetry should we expect?," Working Paper 2016/13, Norges Bank.
    7. Gregor Bäurle & Daniel Kaufmann, 2018. "Measuring Exchange Rate, Price, and Output Dynamics at the Effective Lower Bound," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 80(6), pages 1243-1266, December.

  25. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2014. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27C, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Mr. Bernardin Akitoby & Mr. Jiro Honda & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2019. "Countercyclical Fiscal Policy and Gender Employment: Evidence from the G-7 Countries," IMF Working Papers 2019/004, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Kim, Hyeongwoo, 2018. "Fiscal Policy, Wages, and Jobs in the U.S," MPRA Paper 89763, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi & Anderson, Emily, 2013. "Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Julien Albertini & Stéphane Auray & Hafedh Bouakez & Aurélien Eyquem, 2019. "Taking off into the Wind: Unemployment Risk and State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers," Post-Print halshs-02418060, HAL.
    5. Jean-Jacques Durand & Guillaume L'Oeillet, 2020. "Fiscal consolidation : What differences between shock therapy and soft adjustment ? [Consolidation budgétaire : Quelles differenes entre thérapie de choc et ajustement graduel ?]," Post-Print hal-03081956, HAL.
    6. U. Devrim Demirel, 2020. "Labor Market Effects of Tax Changes in Times of High and Low Unemployment: Working Paper 2020-05," Working Papers 56522, Congressional Budget Office.
    7. Hristov, Atanas, 2022. "Credit spread and the transmission of government purchases shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    8. Restrepo-Ángel, Sergio & Rincón-Castro, Hernán & Ospina-Tejeiro, Juan J., 2022. "Multipliers of taxes and public spending in Colombia: SVAR and local projections approaches," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).
    9. Charles, Sébastien, 2019. "Le multiplicateur budgétaire endogène au cycle dans un modèle macroéconomique post-keynésien [The state-dependent fiscal Multiplier in a Post-Keynesian Macroeconomic Model]," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 26.
    10. Pascal Goemans, 2022. "Historical evidence for larger government spending multipliers in uncertain times than in slumps," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1164-1185, July.
    11. Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 89-114, Spring.
    12. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "What drives the short-run costs of fiscal consolidation? Evidence from OECD countries," BIS Working Papers 553, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Balleer, Almut & Noeller, Marvin, 2023. "Monetary policy in the presence of supply constraints: Evidence from German firm-level data," Ruhr Economic Papers 1060, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    14. Mr. Nooman Rebei, 2017. "Evaluating Changes in the Transmission Mechanism of Government Spending Shocks," IMF Working Papers 2017/049, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Almut Balleer & Marvin Noeller, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10261, CESifo.
    16. Fleischhacker, Jan, 2024. "Fiscal policy and the business cycle: An argument for non-linear policy rules," MPRA Paper 122497, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Saccone, Donatella & Posta, Pompeo Della & Marelli, Enrico & Signorelli, Marcello, 2022. "Public investment multipliers by functions of government: An empirical analysis for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 531-545.
    18. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
    19. Di Serio, Mario & Fragetta, Matteo & Gasteiger, Emanuel, 2020. "The government spending multiplier at the zero lower bound: Evidence from the United States," ECON WPS - Working Papers in Economic Theory and Policy 04/2020, TU Wien, Institute of Statistics and Mathematical Methods in Economics, Economics Research Unit.
    20. IMK Düsseldorf & OFCE Paris & WIFO Wien, 2013. "Crisis continues to smoulder," IMK Report 80e-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    21. Mishel Ghassibe & Francesco Zanetti, 2021. "State Dependence of Fiscal Multipliers: The Source of Fluctuations Matters," Economics Series Working Papers 930, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    22. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    23. Nöller, Marvin & Balleer, Almut, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-level Data," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277638, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    24. Gilles Dufrénot & Aurélia Jambois & Laurine Jambois & Guillaume Khayat, 2016. "Regime-Dependent Fiscal Multipliers in the United States," Post-Print hal-01447865, HAL.
    25. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    26. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
    27. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim, 2018. "What do we know about the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy? A brief survey of the literature on fiscal multipliers," CAMA Working Papers 2018-59, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    28. Philipp Heimberger, 2016. "Did Fiscal Consolidation Cause the Double-Dip Recession in the Euro Area?," wiiw Working Papers 130, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    29. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok, 2023. "Household indebtedness and the macroeconomic effects of tax changes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 22-52.
    30. Charles J. Whalen & Felix Reichling, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier And Economic Policy Analysis In The United States," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(4), pages 735-746, October.
    31. Mark Setterfield, 2015. "Time variation in the size of the multiplier: a Kalecki-Harrod approach," Working Papers 1522, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2017.
    32. Sergio Restrepo-Ángel & Hernán Rincón-Castro & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro, 2020. "Multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público en Colombia: aproximaciones SVAR y proyecciones locales," Borradores de Economia 1114, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    33. IMK Düsseldorf & OFCE Paris & WIFO Wien, 2013. "Die Krise schwelt weiter," IMK Report 80-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    34. Hyeongwoo Kim & Shuwei Zhang, 2022. "Policy Coordination and the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2022-01, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    35. Alice Albonico & Guido Ascari & Alessandro Gobbi, 2018. "The debt multiplier," Working Papers 396, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 20 Dec 2018.
    36. Biolsi, Christopher, 2017. "Nonlinear effects of fiscal policy over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-87.
    37. Buchheim, Lukas & Watzinger, Martin & Wilhelm, Matthias, 2020. "Job creation in tight and slack labor markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 126-143.
    38. Ansgar Belke & Pascal Goemans, 2021. "Uncertainty and nonlinear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: a SEIVAR-based analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 623-646, May.
    39. Goemans, Pascal & Belke, Ansgar, 2019. "Uncertainty and non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in the US: A SEIVAR-based analysis," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203538, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    40. Dufrénot, Gilles & Jawadi, Fredj & Khayat, Guillaume A., 2018. "A model of fiscal dominance under the “Reinhart Conjecture”," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 332-345.
    41. Leila E. Davis & Charalampos Konstantinidis & Yorghos Tripodis, 2017. "A proposal for a federalized unemployment insurance mechanism for Europe," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 14(1), pages 92-116, April.
    42. Topal, Pinar, 2015. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility," SAFE Working Paper Series 90, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    43. Stamegna, Marco & Bonaiuti, Chiara & Maranzano, Paolo & Pianta, Mario, 2024. "The economic impact of arms spending in Germany, Italy, and Spain," MPRA Paper 120608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Karaki, Mohamad B. & Safieddine, Hadi, 2023. "Do defense news crowd out private investment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    45. Albonico, Alice & Ascari, Guido & Gobbi, Alessandro, 2021. "The public debt multiplier," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    46. Aursland, Thor Andreas & Frankovic, Ivan & Kanik, Birol & Saxegaard, Magnus, 2020. "State-dependent fiscal multipliers in NORA - A DSGE model for fiscal policy analysis in Norway," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 321-353.
    47. Sayed O. M. Timuno & Joel Hinaunye Eita & Lanouar Charfeddine, 2020. "Towards an effective fiscal stimulus: Evidence from Botswana," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1790948-179, January.
    48. Hiroshi Morita & Hidekazu Niwa, 2021. "An Effect of Population Aging on the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy: Analysis using a panel VAR model," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 17(3), pages 1-20, November.
    49. Konstantinou, Panagiotis Th. & Partheniou, Andromachi, 2021. "The Effects of Government Spending Over the Business Cycle: A Disaggregated Analysis for OECD and Non-OECD Countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 809-822.
    50. Valeriu Nalban, 2016. "Sentiment-Driven Asymmetries in Romanian Monetary Policy Transmission," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 251-270, May.
    51. Hussain, Syed M. & Malik, Samreen, 2016. "Asymmetric Effects of Exogenous Tax Changes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 268-300.
    52. Mencinger, Jernej & Aristovnik, Aleksander & Verbič, Miroslav, 2017. "Asymmetric effects of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 448-461.
    53. Rozina Shaheen & Paul Turner, 2020. "Fiscal multipliers and the level of economic activity: a structural threshold VAR model for the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(17), pages 1857-1865, April.
    54. Berge, Travis & De Ridder, Maarten & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2021. "When is the fiscal multiplier high? A comparison of four business cycle phases," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    55. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
    56. Francesco Lamperti & Clara Elisabetta Mattei, 2016. "Going Up and Down: Rethinking the Empirics of Growth in the Developing and Newly Industrialized World," LEM Papers Series 2016/01, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    57. Ageliki Anagnostou & Piotr Krajewski & Katarzyna Pilat, 2020. "Regional Specific Idiosyncrasies and Fiscal Policy: Evidence from 47 Regions of the Central and Eastern European Countries," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 1), pages 936-954.
    58. Panagiotis Konstantinou & Andromachi Partheniou, 2019. "The Effects of Government Spending Over the Business Cycle: A Disaggregated Analysis for OECD and Non-OECD Countries," DEOS Working Papers 1904, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    59. Achim Truger, 2014. "Austerity, cyclical adjustment and the remaining leeway for expansionary fiscal policies in the Euro area," IMK Working Paper 140-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    60. Christian R. Proaño & Christian Schoder & Willi Semmler, 2013. "Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Nonlinear Dynamic Panels," Working Papers 1304, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    61. Yingxin Shi & Mototsugu Fukushige, 2013. "Long-Run Fiscal Multiplier for Autonomous Prefectures in China," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-10, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    62. Han, Zhao, 2021. "Low-frequency fiscal uncertainty," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 639-657.
    63. Makrelov, Konstantin & Arndt, Channing & Davies, Rob & Harris, Laurence, 2020. "Balance sheet changes and the impact of financial sector risk-taking on fiscal multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 322-343.
    64. Goemans, Pascal, 2020. "Government Spending in Uncertain and Slack Times: Historical Evidence for Larger Fiscal Multipliers," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224642, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    65. Louis-Philippe Beland & Bulent Unel, 2015. "The Impact of Party Affiliation of U.S. Governors on Immigrants' Labor-Market Outcomes," Departmental Working Papers 2015-01, Department of Economics, Louisiana State University.
    66. Gustav A. Horn & Sebastian Gechert & Katja Rietzler & Kai D. Schmid, 2014. "Streitfall Fiskalpolitik," IMK Report 92-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    67. Sébastien Charles & Thomas Dallery & Jonathan Marie, 2015. "Why the Keynesian Multiplier Increases During Hard Times: A Theoretical Explanation Based on Rentiers' Saving Behaviour," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 66(3), pages 451-473, July.
    68. Mora, Jose U Mora & Acevedo, Rafael A, 2019. "Fiscal Policy Effects and Capital Mobility in Latin American Countries," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 34(1), pages 159-188.
    69. Kevin XD Huang & Nam T Vu, 2019. "Rare but Long-lasting Liquidity Traps and Fiscal Stimulus," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 19-00014, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    70. Jia, Bijie, 2018. "Second Thoughts on Estimating Expansionary Fiscal Policy E ffects in the United States," MPRA Paper 90298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    71. Christoph Boehm & Nitya Pandalai-Nayar, 2020. "Convex Supply Curves," NBER Working Papers 26829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    72. AMENDOLA, Adalgiso & DI SERIO, Mario & FRAGETTA, Matteo, 2018. "The Government Spending Multiplier at the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from the Euro Area," CELPE Discussion Papers 153, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
    73. Bossie, Andrew, 2020. "The asymmetric response of the economy to tax changes before and after 1980," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    74. Haug, Alfred A. & Sznajderska, Anna, 2024. "Government spending multipliers: Is there a difference between government consumption and investment purchases?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    75. Pragidis, I.C. & Tsintzos, P. & Plakandaras, B., 2018. "Asymmetric effects of government spending shocks during the financial cycle," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 372-387.
    76. Dallari, Pietro & Ribba, Antonio, 2020. "The dynamic effects of monetary policy and government spending shocks on unemployment in the peripheral Euro area countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 218-232.
    77. Luis Ayala-Cañón & María Jesús Delgado-Rodríguez & Sonia De Lucas-Santos, 2022. "Synchronization and cyclicality of social spending in economic crises," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 1153-1187, November.
    78. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2018. "Downward nominal wage rigidity and state-dependent government spending multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 11-26.
    79. Richard McManus & F. Gulcin Ozkan & Dawid Trzeciakiewicz, 2021. "Why are Fiscal Multipliers Asymmetric? The Role of Credit Constraints," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 88(349), pages 32-69, January.
    80. Sordi, Serena & Dávila-Fernández, Marwil J., 2022. "A two-stroke growth cycle model for a small open economy," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    81. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Andras Lengyel & Kaustubh Chahande, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2022/149, International Monetary Fund.
    82. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2021. "Recession-specific recoveries: L’s, U’s and everything in between," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    83. Jia, Bijie, 2017. "A Second Thought on Estimating Expansionary Fiscal Policy Effects in the U.S," MPRA Paper 89264, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Sep 2018.
    84. Giovanna Ciaffi & Matteo Deleidi & Mariana Mazzucato, 2024. "Measuring the macroeconomic responses to public investment in innovation: evidence from OECD countries," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(2), pages 363-382.
    85. El Mostafa Bentour, 2022. "The effects of public debt accumulation and business cycle on government spending multipliers," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(19), pages 2231-2256, April.
    86. Galyna Grynkiv & Lars Stentoft, 2018. "Stationary Threshold Vector Autoregressive Models," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-23, August.
    87. Dey, Asim K. & Hoque, G.M. Toufiqul & Das, Kumer P. & Panovska, Irina, 2022. "Impacts of COVID-19 local spread and Google search trend on the US stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 589(C).
    88. Zacharias Bragoudakis & Dimitrios Panas, 2021. "Investigating government spending multiplier for the US economy: empirical evidence using a triple lasso approach," Working Papers 292, Bank of Greece.
    89. Chen, Peng & Miao, Xinru, 2024. "Understanding the role of China's factors in international commodity price fluctuations: A perspective of monetary-fiscal policy interaction," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1464-1483.
    90. Shingo Watanabe, 2019. "What Do British Historical Data Tell Us About Government Spending Multipliers?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1141-1162, April.
    91. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    92. Thomas I. Palley, 2022. "The Macroeconomics of Government Spending: Distinguishing Between Government Purchases, Government Production, and Job Guarantee Programs," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 692-708, October.
    93. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina & Deleidi, Matteo, 2022. "Output determination and autonomous demand multipliers: An empirical investigation for the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    94. Kumar, Pawan & Singh, Vipul Kumar, 2022. "Systemic spillover dynamics of crude oil with Indian Financial indicators in post WPI revision and COVID era," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    95. Gustav A. Horn & Sebastian Gechert & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Sabine Stephan & Andrew Watt, 2013. "Inmitten der Krise des Euroraums - Herausforderungen für die Wirtschaftspolitik 2013," IMK Report 79-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    96. Francesco Lamperti & Clara Elisabetta Mattei, 2018. "Going up and down: rethinking the empirics of growth in the developing and newly industrialized world," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 749-784, September.

  26. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring Economic Slack: A Forecast-Based Approach with Applications to Economies in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Working Papers 451, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2014. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27C, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

  27. Ming Chien Lo & James Morley, 2013. "Bayesian Analysis of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Purchasing Power Parity Persistence Puzzle," Discussion Papers 2013-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Oladunjoye Opeyemi Nathaniel, 2019. "Validity of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Hypothesis in the Ecowas (1980–2017)," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 5(2), pages 141-156, November.
    2. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Rubaszek, Michał, 2023. "How many fundamentals should we include in the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate model?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Donayre Luiggi, 2015. "Do monetary policy shocks generate TAR or STAR dynamics in output?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 227-247, April.
    4. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2013. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    5. Meng, Xiangcai & Huang, Chia-Hsing, 2016. "Nonlinear models for the sources of real effective exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from the Republic of Korea," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 21-30.
    6. Zorzi, Michele Ca’ & Rubaszek, Michał, 2020. "Exchange rate forecasting on a napkin," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    7. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2014. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27C, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    8. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2016. "Nonlinear Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," Borradores de Economia 930, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "State-dependent exchange rate pass-through behavior," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 170-195.
    10. Bertram, Philip & Ma, Jun & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2015. "Real exchange rates and economic fundamentals: An investigation based on a Markov-STAR model," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-565, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    11. Philip Bertram & Teresa Flock & Jun Ma & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2022. "Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals in a new Markov‐STAR Model," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(2), pages 356-379, April.
    12. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Ekundayo P. Mesagan & Olorunfemi Y. Alimi & Ismaila A. Yusuf, 2018. "Macroeconomic Implications of Exchange Rate Depreciation: The Nigerian Experience," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 16(3 (Fall)), pages 235-258.
    14. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2013. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

  28. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2013. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
    2. Maria Elkhdari & Moez Souissi & Mr. Andrew Jewell, 2018. "Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria," IMF Working Papers 2018/124, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Sylvain Leduc & Daniel J. Wilson, 2012. "Should transportation spending be included in a stimulus program? a review of the literature," Working Paper Series 2012-15, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Topal, Pinar, 2015. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility," SAFE Working Paper Series 90, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    5. Christian R. Proaño & Christian Schoder & Willi Semmler, 2013. "Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Nonlinear Dynamic Panels," Working Papers 1304, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    6. Demirel, Ufuk Devrim, 2021. "The short-term effects of tax changes: The role of state dependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 918-934.
    7. Paweł Baranowski & Piotr Krajewski & Michał Mackiewicz & Agata Szymańska, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 1910-1921, August.
    8. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.

  29. Steven Fazzari & James Morley & Irina Panovska, 2013. "State-Dependent Effects of Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers 2012-27B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Rossi, Barbara & Inoue, Atsushi & Anderson, Emily, 2013. "Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9631, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Truger, Achim, 2013. "Austerity in the Euro area: The sad state of economic policy in Germany and the EU," IPE Working Papers 22/2013, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    3. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2015. "Procyclical and countercyclical fiscal multipliers: Evidence from OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 15-31.
    4. Proaño, Christian R. & Schoder, Christian & Semmler, Willi, 2014. "Financial stress, sovereign debt and economic activity in industrialized countries: Evidence from dynamic threshold regressions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 17-37.
    5. Sarah Godar & Christoph Paetz & Achim Truger, 2015. "The scope for progressive tax reform in the OECD countries: A macroeconomic perspective with a case study for Germany," IMK Working Paper 150-2015, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. IMK Düsseldorf & OFCE Paris & WIFO Wien, 2013. "Crisis continues to smoulder," IMK Report 80e-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    7. Maria Elkhdari & Moez Souissi & Mr. Andrew Jewell, 2018. "Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria," IMF Working Papers 2018/124, International Monetary Fund.
    8. IMK Düsseldorf & OFCE Paris & WIFO Wien, 2013. "Die Krise schwelt weiter," IMK Report 80-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Topal, Pinar, 2015. "Fiscal stimulus and labor market flexibility," SAFE Working Paper Series 90, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    10. Riera-Crichton, Daniel & Vegh, Carlos A. & Vuletin, Guillermo, 2014. "Fiscal multipliers in recessions and expansions : does it matter whether government spending is increasing or decreasing ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6993, The World Bank.
    11. Achim Truger, 2014. "Austerity, cyclical adjustment and the remaining leeway for expansionary fiscal policies in the Euro area," IMK Working Paper 140-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    12. Christian R. Proaño & Christian Schoder & Willi Semmler, 2013. "Financial Stress, Sovereign Debt and Economic Activity in Industrialized Countries: Evidence from Nonlinear Dynamic Panels," Working Papers 1304, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    13. Gustav A. Horn & Sebastian Gechert & Katja Rietzler & Kai D. Schmid, 2014. "Streitfall Fiskalpolitik," IMK Report 92-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    14. Sebastian Gechert & Rafael Mentges, 2013. "What Drives Fiscal Multipliers? The Role of Private Wealth and Debt," IMK Working Paper 124-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Demirel, Ufuk Devrim, 2021. "The short-term effects of tax changes: The role of state dependence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 918-934.
    16. Paweł Baranowski & Piotr Krajewski & Michał Mackiewicz & Agata Szymańska, 2016. "The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy Over the Business Cycle: A CEE Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(8), pages 1910-1921, August.
    17. Sylvérie Herbert, 2014. "Econometric analysis of regime switches and of fiscal multipliers," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2014-01, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    18. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
    19. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Gustav A. Horn & Sebastian Gechert & Alexander Herzog-Stein & Katja Rietzler & Silke Tober & Sabine Stephan & Andrew Watt, 2013. "Inmitten der Krise des Euroraums - Herausforderungen für die Wirtschaftspolitik 2013," IMK Report 79-2013, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

  30. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2015. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/903, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Karimova, Amira & Simsek, Esra & Orhan, Mehmet, 2020. "Policy implications of the Lucas Critique empirically tested along the global financial crisis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 153-172.
    3. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Kyung Hwan Yoon, 2015. "Time-varying effect of oil market shocks on the stock market," CAMA Working Papers 2015-35, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2015. "The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2015-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    5. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "The Evolution of US Monetary Policy: 2000-2007," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 882, Boston College Department of Economics.
    6. Hou, Chenghan, 2017. "Infinite hidden markov switching VARs with application to macroeconomic forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1025-1043.
    7. Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2022. "Oil shocks and global economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    8. Antonio Pacifico, 2021. "Structural Panel Bayesian VAR with Multivariate Time-Varying Volatility to Jointly Deal with Structural Changes, Policy Regime Shifts, and Endogeneity Issues," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-35, May.

  31. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2015. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/903, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    2. Yuelin Liu, 2014. "How Structural Is Unemployment in the United States?," Discussion Papers 2014-42, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    3. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2015. "The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2015-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    4. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "The Evolution of US Monetary Policy: 2000-2007," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 882, Boston College Department of Economics.

  32. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Enders, Walter & Li, Jing, 2015. "Trend-cycle decomposition allowing for multiple smooth structural changes in the trend of US real GDP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 71-81.

  33. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2012. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: Are Nonlinear Dynamics a Proxy for Multivariate Information?," Discussion Papers 2012-23, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.

    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2017. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    2. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Tom Engsted & Stig V. Møller & Magnus Sander, 2013. "Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions," CREATES Research Papers 2013-13, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    4. Ahmed, Ali & Granberg, Mark & Troster, Victor & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2020. "Asymmetric Dynamics between Uncertainty and Unemployment Flows in the United States," LiU Working Papers in Economics 7, Linköping University, Division of Economics, Department of Management and Engineering.
    5. Andrea Beccarini, 2019. "Testing for the omission of relevant variables and regime-switching misspecification," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 775-796, March.
    6. Di Caro, Paolo, 2014. "Regional recessions and recoveries in theory and practice: a resilience-based overview," MPRA Paper 60300, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ahmed, M. Iqbal & Farah, Quazi Fidia & Kishan, Ruby P., 2023. "Oil price uncertainty and unemployment dynamics: Nonlinearities matter," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).

  34. Kevin Lee, James Morley and Kalvinder Sheields, 2011. "The Meta Taylor Rule," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 1131, The University of Melbourne.

    Cited by:

    1. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Manuel M. F. Martins & Maria Joana Soares, 2018. "Estimating the Taylor Rule in the Time-Frequency Domain," NIPE Working Papers 04/2018, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    2. Aristidou, Chrystalleni & Lee, Kevin & Shields, Kalvinder, 2022. "Fundamentals, regimes and exchange rate forecasts: Insights from a meta exchange rate model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Michael T. Belongia & Peter N. Ireland, 2015. "The Evolution of US Monetary Policy: 2000-2007," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 882, Boston College Department of Economics.
    4. Alex Botsis & Kevin Lee, 2022. "Nowcasting Using Firm-Level Survey Data; Tracking UK Output Fluctuations and Recessionary Events," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-20, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    5. Gross, Jonas & Zahner, Johannes, 2021. "What is on the ECB’s mind? Monetary policy before and after the global financial crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Kerry B. Hudson & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Understanding the Deviations of the Taylor Rule: A New Methodology with an Application to Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2014-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    7. Ying Chen & Hanyang Zhang & Kwok-Leung Tam & Maoguo Wu, 2018. "The Making of Contemporary Australian Monetary Policy - Backward- or Forward- Looking?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(6), pages 127-140, June.
    8. Klingelhöfer, Jan & Sun, Rongrong, 2018. "China's regime-switching monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 32-40.
    9. Aristidou, Chrystalleni, 2018. "The meta-Phillips Curve: Modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 367-379.

  35. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2011. "Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2011-07, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2014.

    Cited by:

    1. Abi Morshed, Alaa & Andreou, E. & Boldea, Otilia, 2016. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Discussion Paper 2016-019, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    2. Kenichi Shimizu, 2022. "Asymptotic properties of Bayesian inference in linear regression with a structural break," Working Papers 2022_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    3. Günes Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "What drives inflation in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 21-36, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Agiwal Varun & Kumar Jitendra & Shangodoyin Dahud Kehinde, 2018. "A Bayesian Inference Of Multiple Structural Breaks In Mean And Error Variance In Panelar (1) Model," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 19(1), pages 7-23, March.
    5. Polbin, Andrey & Fokin, Nikita, 2017. "К Вопросу О Долгосрочной Взаимосвязи Реального Потребления Домохозяйств С Реальным Доходом В Рф [A note on cointegration relationship between real consumption and real income in Russia]," MPRA Paper 82451, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Nov 2017.
    6. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2015. "The Asymptotic Behaviour of the Residual Sum of Squares in Models with Multiple Break Points," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1504, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    7. Tatsushi Oka & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Testing for common breaks in a multiple equations system," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 3/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
    8. Alessandro Casini & Pierre Perron, 2018. "Structural Breaks in Time Series," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2019-02, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    9. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2020. "Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Discussion Paper Series 2001, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    10. Eiji Kurozumi, 2018. "Confidence Sets for the Date of a Structural Change at the End of a Sample," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 850-862, November.
    11. Casini, Alessandro & Perron, Pierre, 2021. "Continuous record Laplace-based inference about the break date in structural change models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 3-21.
    12. Harris, David & Kew, Hsein & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2020. "Level shift estimation in the presence of non-stationary volatility with an application to the unit root testing problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 354-388.
    13. Donayre Luiggi & Eo Yunjong & Morley James, 2018. "Improving likelihood-ratio-based confidence intervals for threshold parameters in finite samples," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11, February.
    14. Benjamin Wong, 2015. "Do inflation expectations propagate the inflationary impact of real oil price shocks?: Evidence from the Michigan survey," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2015/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    15. Karsten Schweikert, 2022. "Detecting Multiple Structural Breaks in Systems of Linear Regression Equations with Integrated and Stationary Regressors," Papers 2201.05430, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    16. Güneş Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "Have the driving forces of inflation changed in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Working Papers 896, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2016. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 699-728, June.
    18. Abi Morshed, Alaa & Andreou, E. & Boldea, Otilia, 2016. "Structural Break Tests Robust to Regression Misspecification," Other publications TiSEM 3b21f21c-2cef-49d7-bb9b-a, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.

  36. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger & Robert H. Rasche, 2011. "Inflation in the G7: mind the gap(s)?," Working Papers 2011-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. García, Juan Angel & Poon, Aubrey, 2019. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks," Working Paper Series 2338, European Central Bank.
    2. Weber, Enzo & Gehrke, Britta, 2018. "Identifying Asymmetric Effects of Labor Market Reforms," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181513, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
    4. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    5. John A. Tatom, 2017. "Globalization and Inflation: a Swiss Perspective," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 523-545, July.
    6. Alex, Dony, 2021. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in large emerging economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    7. Alberto Montagnoli & Konstantinos Mouratidis & Kemar Whyte, 2018. "Assessing the Cyclical Behaviour of Bank Capital Buyers in a Finance-Augmented Macro-Economy," Working Papers 2018003, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.

  37. Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2009-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2015.

    Cited by:

    1. Dionysios K. Solomos & Dimitrios N. Koumparoulis, 2013. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 34-58.
    2. Solomos, Dionysios & Papageorgiou, Theofanis & Koumparoulis, Dimitrios, 2012. "Financial Sector and Business Cycles Determinants in the EMU context: An Empirical Approach (1996-2011)," MPRA Paper 43858, University Library of Munich, Germany.

  38. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "Comparing the shape of recoveries: France, the UK and the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 327-334.
    2. Bec, F. & Bouabdallah, O. & Ferrara, L., 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models," Working papers 321, Banque de France.

  39. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James C., 2008. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10372, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Cited by:

    1. Yamamoto, Yohei & 山本, 庸平, 2014. "A Modified Confidence Set for the Structural Break Date in Linear Regression Models," Discussion Papers 2014-08, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    2. Seong Yeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2013. "A Comparison of Alternative Methods to Construct Confidence Intervals for the Estimate of a Break Date in Linear Regression Models," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-010, Boston University - Department of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2015.
    3. Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2009-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    4. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2012. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    5. Luo, Sui & Startz, Richard, 2014. "Is it one break or ongoing permanent shocks that explains U.S. real GDP?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 155-163.

  40. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2006. "A Bayesian approach to counterfactual analysis of structural change," Working Papers 2004-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2007. "Technology Shocks, Statistical Models, and The Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 3589, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

  41. Thomas B. King & James Morley, 2005. "In search of the natural rate of unemployment," Supervisory Policy Analysis Working Papers 2005-05, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "An Introductory Review of a Structural VAR-X Estimation and Applications," Borradores de Economia 686, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López & Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 29(66), pages 128-173, December.
    3. Yingyao Hu & Yang Liu & Jiaxiong Yao, 2022. "Revealing Unobservables by Deep Learning: Generative Element Extraction Networks (GEEN)," Papers 2210.01300, arXiv.org.
    4. Naveen Srinivasan & Pratik Mitra, 2014. "The European unemployment problem: its cause and cure," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 57-73, August.
    5. Cuéllar-Martín, Jaime & Martín-Román, Ángel L. & Moral, Alfonso, 2017. "Natural and cyclical unemployment: a stochastic frontier decomposition and economic policy implications," MPRA Paper 76503, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    7. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    8. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    9. Valcarcel, Victor J. & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "Changes in the oil price-inflation pass-through," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 24-42.
    10. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    11. Yuelin Liu & James Morley, 2013. "Structural Evolution of the Postwar U.S. Economy," Discussion Papers 2013-15, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    12. Zhang, Chengsi & Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2011. "Output gap measurement and the New Keynesian Phillips curve for China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2462-2468.
    13. Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano & Mario A. Ramos-Veloza, 2021. "Labor Market Indicator for Colombia (LMI)," Borradores de Economia 1152, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Eva M. Koeberl & Sarah M. Lein, 2008. "The ICU and the Phillips Curve - An Approach Based on Micro Data," KOF Working papers 08-211, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    15. Valcarcel, Victor J., 2012. "The dynamic adjustments of stock prices to inflation disturbances," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 117-144.
    16. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez, 2016. "Determinants of structural unemployment in Colombia. A search approach," Borradores de Economia 969, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Findley, T. Scott, 2015. "Hyperbolic memory discounting and the political business cycle," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PB), pages 345-359.
    18. Mallick, Debdulal, 2019. "Policy regimes and the shape of the Phillips curve in Australia," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1077-1094.
    19. José R. Maria, . "Como Medir o Desemprego? Implicações para a NAIRU," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    20. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 480, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    21. Monge, Manuel, 2021. "U.S. historical initial jobless claims. Is it different with the coronavirus crisis? A fractional integration analysis," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 88-95.
    22. Naveen Srinivasan & Pratik Mitra, 2016. "Interwar Unemployment in the UK and US: Old and New Evidence," Working Papers 2016-149, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    23. Tara M. Sinclair, 2009. "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 529-542, March.
    24. Selgin, George & Lastrapes, William D. & White, Lawrence H., 2012. "Has the Fed been a failure?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 569-596.
    25. Jorge E. Restrepo, 2008. "Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile," Investigación Conjunta-Joint Research, in: Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) (ed.), Estimación y Uso de Variables no Observables en la Región, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 492-516, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA.
    26. Valerija Botric, 2011. "Structural Unemployment And Its Determinants In Southeast Europe," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 20(1), pages 81-100, june.
    27. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components: The impact of labour market reforms in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100499, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    28. Murakami, Hiroki & Sasaki, Hiroaki, 2020. "Economic development with public capital accumulation: The crucial role of wage flexibility on business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 299-309.
    29. Mihaela Simionescu, 2014. "The Kalman Filter Approach for Estimating the Natural Unemployment Rate in Romania," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 10(1), pages 148-159, February.
    30. Jorge E. Restrepo L., 2008. "Estimating the NAIRU for Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 11(2), pages 31-46, August.
    31. Hiroaki Miyamoto & Yuya Takahashi, 2008. "Productivity Growth, On-the-Job Search, and Unemployment," Working Papers EMS_2011_06, Research Institute, International University of Japan, revised Feb 2011.
    32. Benati, Luca, 2010. "Evolving Phillips trade-off," Working Paper Series 1176, European Central Bank.
    33. Jorge E. Restrepo, 2006. "Estimaciones de NAIRU para Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 361, Central Bank of Chile.
    34. Mr. Geoffrey J Bannister & Mr. Harald Finger & Siddharth Kothari & Ms. Elena Loukoianova, 2020. "Addressing the Pandemic's Medium-Term Fallout in Australia and New Zealand," IMF Working Papers 2020/272, International Monetary Fund.

  42. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "The importance of nonlinearity in reproducing business cycle features," Working Papers 2004-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. Andrew T. Levin & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson & Tack Yun, 2008. "Macroeconometric equivalence, microeconomic dissonance, and the design of monetary policy," Working Papers 2008-035, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    2. Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel & Poncela, Pilar & Camacho, Máximo, 2012. "Extracting nonlinear signals from several economic indicators," CEPR Discussion Papers 8865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Viktor Winschel, 2005. "Solving, Estimating and Selecting Nonlinear Dynamic Economic Models without the Curse of Dimensionality," GE, Growth, Math methods 0507014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Antonio Matas-Mir & Denise R. Osborn & Marco Lombardi, 2005. "The Effect of Seasonal Adjustment on the Properties of Business Cycle Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive wp2005_15, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    5. Morley James & Piger Jeremy & Tien Pao-Lin, 2013. "Reproducing business cycle features: are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 483-498, December.
    6. María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós, 2014. "The two greatest. Great recession vs. great moderation," Working Papers 1423, Banco de España.
    7. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
    8. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Paper 367, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Sep 2008.
    9. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    10. Frédérick Demers & Ryan Macdonald, 2007. "The Canadian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Models," Staff Working Papers 07-38, Bank of Canada.
    11. Shushanik Papanyan, 2015. "Digitization and Productivity: Measuring Cycles of Technological Progress," Working Papers 15/33, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    12. Mark W. French, 2005. "A nonlinear look at trend MFP growth and the business cycle: result from a hybrid Kalman/Markov switching model," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.

  43. Toni Gravelle & Maral Kichian & James Morley, 2003. "Shift Contagion in Asset Markets," Staff Working Papers 03-5, Bank of Canada.

    Cited by:

    1. John Beirne & Jana Gieck, 2014. "Interdependence and Contagion in Global Asset Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(4), pages 639-659, September.
    2. Alessandro Rebucci, 2003. "Measuring Contagion With A Bayesian Time-Varying Coefficient Model," Working Papers. Serie AD 2003-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    3. Egorov, Aleksei V. (Егоров, Алексей В.) & Borzykh, Olga A. (Борзых, Ольга А.), 2018. "Asymmetric Interest Rate Pass-Through in Russia [Асимметрия Процентного Канала Денежной Трансмиссии В России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 92-121, February.

  44. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Working Papers 2002-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Cited by:

    1. van Dijk, Dick & Hans Franses, Philip & Peter Boswijk, H., 2007. "Absorption of shocks in nonlinear autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4206-4226, May.
    2. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick J.C. van Dijk, 2011. "Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-002/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    4. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
    5. Frédérique Bec & Annabelle de Gaye, 2019. "Le modèle autorégressif autorégressif à seuil avec effet rebond : Une application aux rendements boursiers français et américains ," Working Papers hal-02014663, HAL.
    6. Nadal De Simone, Francisco & Clarke, Sean, 2007. "Asymmetry in business fluctuations: International evidence on Friedman's plucking model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 64-85, February.
    7. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2019. "Dornsbush revisited from an asymmetrical perspective: Evidence from G20 nominal effective exchange rates," Erudite Working Paper 2019-22, Erudite.
    8. Fernando Delbianco & Andrés Fioriti & Fernando Tohmé, 2021. "Markov Chains, Eigenvalues and the Stabilityof Economic Growth Processes," Working Papers 88, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    9. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2020. "An asymmetrical overshooting correction model for G20 nominal effective exchange rates," PSE Working Papers hal-02908680, HAL.
    10. Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.
    11. Jangryoul Kim, 2011. "Legacy of the Two Crises: The Case of Malaysia," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 31-48, December.
    12. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2005. "Business Cycle Phases in U.S. States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 604-616, November.
    13. Chiu, Ching-Wai (Jeremy) & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem, 2016. "Macroeconomic tail events with non-linear Bayesian VARs," Bank of England working papers 611, Bank of England.
    14. Masaru Chiba, 2023. "Robust and efficient specification tests in Markov-switching autoregressive models," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 99-137, April.
    15. Frédérique Bec & Marie Bessec, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Post-Print hal-01515613, HAL.
    16. Michael J. Dueker, 2006. "Using cyclical regimes of output growth to predict jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 88(Mar), pages 145-154.
    17. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Kiel Policy Brief 22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Frédérique BEC & Songlin ZENG, 2013. "Do Stock Returns Rebound After Bear Markets? An Empirical Analysis From Five OECD Countries," THEMA Working Papers 2013-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    19. Bradley Michael D. & Jansen Dennis W., 2018. "Nonlinear evidence on the existence of jobless recoveries," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-19, February.
    20. Kristie M. Engemann & Michael T. Owyang, 2007. "Whatever happened to the business cycle? a Bayesian analysis of jobless recoveries," Working Papers 2007-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: a reference chronology," Working Papers hal-03373425, HAL.
    22. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    23. Engel, J. & Haugh, D. & Pagan, A., 2005. "Some methods for assessing the need for non-linear models in business cycle analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 651-662.
    24. Oleg Korenok & Bruce Mizrach & Stan Radchenko, 2004. "The Microeconomics of Macroeconomic Asymmetries: Sectoral Driving Forces and Firm Level Characteristics," Departmental Working Papers 200405, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    25. Kristie M. Engemann & Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang, 2010. "Do oil shocks drive business cycles? some U.S. and international evidence," Working Papers 2010-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    26. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2014. "The way out of recessions: A forecasting analysis for some Euro area countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 539-549.
    27. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2015. "A note on banking and housing crises and the strength of recoveries," Kiel Working Papers 1984, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    28. Garrett, Thomas A. & Wall, Howard J., 2014. "Personal-Bankruptcy Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(7), pages 1488-1507, October.
    29. Hosseinkouchack, Mehdi & Wolters, Maik H., 2013. "Do large recessions reduce output permanently?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 516-519.
    30. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2023. "Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    31. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2017. "Rethinking monetary policy after the crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(PB), pages 252-274.
    32. Morley James & Piger Jeremy & Tien Pao-Lin, 2013. "Reproducing business cycle features: are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 483-498, December.
    33. Dovern, Jonas & Jannsen, Nils, 2017. "Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 760-769.
    34. Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
    35. Giordani, Paolo & Kohn, Robert & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "A unified approach to nonlinearity, structural change, and outliers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 112-133, March.
    36. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2020. "Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Discussion Paper Series 2001, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    37. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    38. Bec, Frédérique & Bouabdallah, Othman & Ferrara, Laurent, 2015. "Comparing the shape of recoveries: France, the UK and the US," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 327-334.
    39. Martha Misas & Maria Teresa Ramirez, 2007. "Depressions in the Colombian economic growth during the twentieth century: a Markov switching regime model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(11), pages 803-808.
    40. Camacho, Maximo, 2005. "Markov-switching stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(1-2), pages 135-158, January.
    41. Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 675-704, June.
    42. Mile Bosnjak, 2017. "Structural Change In Croatian Real Gdp Growth Rates," Economic Thought and Practice, Department of Economics and Business, University of Dubrovnik, vol. 26(1), pages 205-218, june.
    43. Yin, Ming, 2015. "Estimating Gaussian Mixture Autoregressive model with Sequential Monte Carlo algorithm: A parallel GPU implementation," MPRA Paper 88111, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    44. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
    45. J. W. Nevile & P. Kriesler, 2011. "Why Keynesian Policy was More Successful in the Fifties and Sixties than in the Last Twenty Years," The Economic and Labour Relations Review, , vol. 22(1), pages 1-16, May.
    46. Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2004. "Estimating Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: Linear versus Nonlinear Likelihood," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-005, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    47. James Morley & Irina B Panovska, 2017. "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?," Discussion Papers 2016-12A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    48. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2013. "Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9551, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    49. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
    50. David N. DeJong & Hariharan Dharmarajan & Roman Liesenfeld & Jean-Francois Richard, 2008. "Exploiting Non-Linearities in GDP Growth for Forecasting and Anticipating Regime Changes," Working Paper 367, Department of Economics, University of Pittsburgh, revised Sep 2008.
    51. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem, 2013. "Inventory investment and the business cycle: the usual suspect," Post-Print halshs-00846501, HAL.
    52. Tolga Omay & Rangan Gupta & Giovanni Bonaccolto, 2015. "The US Real GNP is Trend-Stationary After All," Working Papers 201581, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    53. Bosupeng, Mpho & Naranpanawa, Athula & Su, Jen-Je, 2024. "Does exchange rate volatility affect the impact of appreciation and depreciation on the trade balance? A nonlinear bivariate approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    54. Chigozie Chukwu & Aleksandar Vasilev & Shrabani Saha, 2024. "Measuring Business Cycle Stylized Facts in Selected Oil-Producing Economies: A Comparative Study," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 20(1), pages 89-121, August.
    55. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Measuring business cycles intra-synchronization in us: a regime-switching interdependence framework," Working Papers 1726, Banco de España.
    56. Bec, F. & Bouabdallah, O. & Ferrara, L., 2011. "The possible shapes of recoveries in Markov-switching models," Working papers 321, Banque de France.
    57. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    58. Lathania Brown & Robert T Greenbaum, 2017. "The role of industrial diversity in economic resilience: An empirical examination across 35 years," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(6), pages 1347-1366, May.
    59. Mishkin, Frederic S., 2010. "Monetary policy flexibility, risk management, and financial disruptions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 242-246, June.
    60. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
    61. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2013. "Some thoughts on accurate characterization of stock market indexes trends in conditions of nonlinear capital flows during electronic trading at stock exchanges in global capital markets," MPRA Paper 49921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    62. Marchese, Malvina, 2010. "Time series models of GDP: a reappraisal," MPRA Paper 36389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    63. Frédérique Bec & Othman Bouabdallah & Laurent Ferrara, 2013. "The European Way out of Recession," Post-Print hal-02980626, HAL.
    64. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2002. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2002-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    65. Gonzalo Castañeda & Luis Castro Peñarrieta, 2022. "A Customized Machine Learning Algorithm for Discovering the Shapes of Recovery: Was the Global Financial Crisis Different?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 69-99, March.
    66. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Jannsen, Nils & van Roye, Björn & Scheide, Joachim, 2009. "Weltwirtschaft: Tiefpunkt der Produktion erreicht," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 28650, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    67. Valerie Cerra & Ugo Panizza & Sweta C. Saxena, 2013. "International Evidence On Recovery From Recessions," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(2), pages 424-439, April.
    68. López-Herrera, Francisco & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2012. "Is There a Relationship between the Mexican and the US Real Business Cycles during 1930-2010?," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Espinosa-Ramírez, Rafael Salvador (ed.), Research Issues Economic Relations, volume 1, chapter 6, pages 145-160, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
    69. Jannsen, Nils, 2015. "The dynamics of business investment following banking crises and normal recessions," Kiel Working Papers 1996, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    70. MeiChi Huang & Tzu-Chien Wang, 2015. "Housing-bubble vulnerability and diversification opportunities during housing boom–bust cycles: evidence from decomposition of asset price returns," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(2), pages 605-637, March.
    71. James Morley, 2018. "The Econometric Analysis of Recurrent Events in Macroeconomics and Finance," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 94(306), pages 338-340, September.
    72. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2016. "Nonlinearities in the U.S. wage Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 19-43.
    73. Gross, Marco & Binder, Michael, 2013. "Regime-switching global vector autoregressive models," Working Paper Series 1569, European Central Bank.
    74. Jannsen, Nils & Scheide, Joachim, 2010. "Growth patterns after the crisis: This time is not different," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 47873, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    75. Camacho, Maximo, 2011. "Markov-switching models and the unit root hypothesis in real US GDP," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 161-164, August.
    76. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring economic slack in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 35-50, Bank for International Settlements.
    77. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2017. "Asymptotic Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator in Regime Switching Econometric Models," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1049, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    78. Keun Yeong Lee, 2023. "The synchronization between Korea's and Japan's business cycles," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 435-465, December.
    79. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2021. "Recession-specific recoveries: L’s, U’s and everything in between," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    80. Kalli, Maria & Griffin, Jim E., 2018. "Bayesian nonparametric vector autoregressive models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 267-282.
    81. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "Evaluating the carbon-macroeconomy relationship: Evidence from threshold vector error-correction and Markov-switching VAR models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2634-2656.
    82. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Jannsen, Nils & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2010. "The ugly and the bad: banking and housing crises strangle output permanently, ordinary recessions do not," Kiel Working Papers 1586, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    83. López-Herrera, Francisco & Ortiz-Arango, Francisco & Venegas-Martínez, Francisco, 2011. "Modelado de la volatilidad del Índice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores con cambios markovianos de régimen," Sección de Estudios de Posgrado e Investigación de la Escuela Superios de Economía del Instituto Politécnico Nacional, in: Perrotini-Hernández, Ignacio (ed.), Crecimiento y Desarrollo Económico en México, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 153-164, Escuela Superior de Economía, Instituto Politécnico Nacional.
    84. James Morley & Jeremy M. Piger, 2005. "A steady-state approach to trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes," Working Papers 2004-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    85. Maximo Camacho, 2002. "Nonlinear stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 274, Society for Computational Economics.
    86. Chevallier, Julien, 2011. "A model of carbon price interactions with macroeconomic and energy dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1295-1312.
    87. Sheida Teimouri & Taggert J Brooks, 2015. "Output Recovery After Currency Crises," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 57(1), pages 75-102, March.
    88. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2011. "Monetary Policy Strategy: Lessons from the Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    89. Rajendra N. Paramanik & Avishek Bhandari & Bandi Kamaiah, 2022. "Financial cycle, business cycle, and policy uncertainty in India: An empirical investigation," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 825-837, July.
    90. Elroukh, Ahmed W. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Panovska, Irina, 2020. "A look at jobless recoveries in G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    91. James Morley & Jeremy Piger & Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Reproducing Business Cycle Features: How Important Is Nonlinearity Versus Multivariate Information?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-003, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    92. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring Economic Slack: A Forecast-Based Approach with Applications to Economies in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Working Papers 451, Bank for International Settlements.
    93. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.

  45. Toni Gravelle & Maral Kichian & James Morley, 2002. "Detecting shift-contagion in currency and bond markets," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 58, Society for Computational Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Thomas J. Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Deren Unalmis, 2008. "On the Stability of Domestic Financial Market Linkages in the Presence of time-varying Volatility," Working Papers 0810, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    2. Lucey, Brian & Sevic, Aleksandar, 2010. "Investigating the determinants of banking coexceedances in Europe in the summer of 2008," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 275-283, July.
    3. Bua, Giovanna & Trecroci, Carmine, 2016. "International Equity Markets Interdependence: Bigger Shocks or Contagion in the 21st Century?," MPRA Paper 74771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Dungey, Mardi & Flavin, Thomas J. & Lagoa-Varela, Dolores, 2020. "Are banking shocks contagious? Evidence from the eurozone," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    5. Lopes, José Mário & Nunes, Luis C., 2012. "A Markov regime switching model of crises and contagion: The case of the Iberian countries in the EMS," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 1141-1153.
    6. Mpoha, Salifya & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2021. "Spillover effects from China and the US to global emerging markets: a dynamic analysis," MPRA Paper 109349, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2015. "Debt and Financial Market Contagion," Discussion Papers 2015-02, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    8. Doruk Kucuksarac & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2012. "Kuresel Kriz, Avrupa Borc Krizi ve Gelismekte Olan Piyasalarda Bulasicilik Etkisi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1204, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    9. Pami Dua & Divya Tuteja, 2016. "Contagion in International Stock and Currency Markets During Recent Crisis Episodes," Working papers 258, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    10. Flavin, Thomas J. & Morley, Ciara E. & Panopoulou, Ekaterini, 2014. "Identifying safe haven assets for equity investors through an analysis of the stability of shock transmission," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 137-154.
    11. Marcel Aloy & Gilles de Truchis & Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad, 2014. "Shift-Volatility Transmission in East Asian Equity Markets," AMSE Working Papers 1402, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Mar 2014.
    12. Thomas Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "International Portfolio Diversification and Market Linkages in the presence of regime-switching volatility," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp167, IIIS.
    13. Hsien-Yi LEE, 2011. "Contagion in International Stock Markets During the sub Prime Mortgage Crisis," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 8, pages 141-158, December.
    14. de Bandt,O. & Malik, S., 2010. "Is there Evidence of Shift-Contagion in International Housing Markets?," Working papers 295, Banque de France.
    15. Mandilaras, Alex & Bird, Graham, 2010. "A Markov switching analysis of contagion in the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1062-1075, October.
    16. Thomas J.Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2007. "On the robustness of international portfolio diversification benefits to regime-switching volatility," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1801007.pdf, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    17. Xiangying Meng & Xianhua Wei, 2018. "Systematic Correlation is Priced as Risk Factor," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(6), pages 1-2.
    18. Neha Seth & Monica Sighania, 2017. "Financial market contagion: selective review of reviews," Qualitative Research in Financial Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(4), pages 391-408, November.
    19. Ilyes Abid & Khaled Guesmi & Olfa Kaabia, 2013. "Does Bayesian Shrinkage Help to Better Reflect What Happened During the Subprime Crisis?," Post-Print hal-01410575, HAL.
    20. Fuchun Li, 2009. "Testing for Financial Contagion with Applications to the Canadian Banking System," Staff Working Papers 09-14, Bank of Canada.
    21. Osama M Badr & Wajih Khallouli, 2019. "Testing for Shift-Contagion Vulnerability Among MENA Stock Markets During the Turkish Financial Crisis," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(1), pages 53-63, January.
    22. Flavin, Thomas J. & Sheenan, Lisa, 2015. "The role of U.S. subprime mortgage-backed assets in propagating the crisis: Contagion or interdependence?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 167-186.
    23. Zheng, Yanting & Luan, Xin & Lu, Xin & Liu, Jiaming, 2023. "A new view of risk contagion by decomposition of dependence structure: Empirical analysis of Sino-US stock markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    24. Thomas J. Flavin and Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2007. "Detecting Shift and Pure Contagion in East Asian Equity Markets: A Unified Approach," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp236, IIIS.
    25. Christos Alexakis & Dimitris Kenourgios & Vasileios Pappas & Athina Petropoulou, 2021. "From dotcom to Covid-19: A convergence analysis of Islamic investments," Post-Print hal-03347374, HAL.
    26. Abubakar Jamaladeen & David E. Omoregie & Samuel F. Onipede & Nafiu A. Bashir, 2022. "A regime-switching skew-normal model of contagion in some selected stock markets," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(12), pages 1-20, December.
    27. Matesanz, David & Ortega, Guillermo J., 2008. "Network analysis of exchange data: Interdependence drives crisis contagion," MPRA Paper 7720, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Doruk Kucuksarac & Pinar Ozlu & Deren Unalmis, 2012. "Kuresel Kriz, Avrupa Borc Krizi ve Gelismekte Olan Piyasalarda Bulasicilik Etkisi (Global Crisis, European Debt Crisis and Contagion in Emerging Markets)," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 12(2), pages 25-35.
    29. Joshua C.C. Chan & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Renée A. Fry-McKibbin, 2013. "A Regime Switching Skew-normal Model for Measuring Financial Crisis and Contagion," CAMA Working Papers 2013-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    30. Benkraiem, Ramzi & Garfatta, Riadh & Lakhal, Faten & Zorgati, Imen, 2022. "Financial contagion intensity during the COVID-19 outbreak: A copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    31. Gerba, Eddie & Leiva-León, Danilo & Rubio, Margarita, 2024. "Inspecting cross-border macro-financial mechanisms," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    32. Essahbi Essaadi & Jamel Jouini & Wajih Khallouli, 2004. "The Asian Crisis Contagion: A Dynamic Correlation Approach Analysis," Post-Print halshs-00201220, HAL.
    33. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Hsiao & Chrismin Tang, 2014. "Contagion and Global Financial Crises: Lessons from Nine Crisis Episodes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 521-570, July.
    34. Chan Joshua C.C. & Fry-McKibbin Renée A. & Hsiao Cody Yu-Ling, 2019. "A regime switching skew-normal model of contagion," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(1), pages 1-24, February.
    35. Imen Bedoui-Belghith & Slaheddine Hallara & Faouzi Jilani, 2023. "Crisis transmission degree measurement under crisis propagation model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-27, January.
    36. Rajan Sruthi & Santhakumar Shijin, 2020. "Investigating liquidity constraints as a channel of contagion: a regime switching approach," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, December.
    37. Raza, Hamid & Wu, Weiou, 2018. "Quantile dependence between the stock, bond and foreign exchange markets – Evidence from the UK," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 286-296.
    38. Viviana Fernández, 2007. "The behavior of stock returns in the Asia-Pacific mining industry following the Iraq war," Documentos de Trabajo 243, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
    39. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Extreme spillovers across Asian-Pacific currencies: A quantile-based analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    40. Atasoy, Burak Sencer & Özkan, İbrahim & Erden, Lütfi, 2024. "The determinants of systemic risk contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    41. Lee, Hsien-Yi & Wu, Hsing-Chi & Wang, Yung-Jang, 2007. "Contagion effect in financial markets after the South-East Asia Tsunami," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 281-296, June.
    42. MeiChi Huang, 2014. "Monetary policy implications of housing shift-contagion across regional markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 589-608, October.
    43. Mierau, Jochen O. & Mink, Mark, 2013. "Are stock market crises contagious? The role of crisis definitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4765-4776.
    44. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 4264, CESifo.
    45. Takashi Miyazaki & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2016. "The determinants of a simultaneous crash in gold and stock markets: An ordered logit approach," Discussion Papers 1603, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    46. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & Vance L. Martin, 2017. "Joint tests of contagion with applications to financial crises," CAMA Working Papers 2017-65, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    47. Singh, Vikkram & Roca, Eduardo & Li, Bin, 2021. "Effectiveness of policy interventions during financial crises in China and Russia: Lessons for the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 253-277.
    48. Rudiger Ahrend & Antoine Goujard, 2012. "International Capital Mobility and Financial Fragility - Part 6. Are all Forms of Financial Integration Equally Risky in Times of Financial Turmoil?: Asset Price Contagion During the Global Financial ," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 969, OECD Publishing.
    49. Irfan Akbar Kazi & Mohamed Mehanaoui & Farhan Akbar, 2014. "The shift-contagion effect of global financial crisis and the European debt crisis on OECD Countries," Working Papers 2014-128, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    50. Patel, Ritesh & Goodell, John W. & Oriani, Marco Ercole & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "A bibliometric review of financial market integration literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    51. Krzysztof Brania & Henryk Gurgul, 2021. "Contagion effects on capital and forex markets around GFC and COVID-19 crises. A comparative study," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 31(2), pages 59-92.
    52. Thomas Flavin & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2006. "Shift versus traditional contagion in Asian markets," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp176, IIIS.
    53. Wang, Haiying & Yuan, Ying & Li, Yiou & Wang, Xunhong, 2021. "Financial contagion and contagion channels in the forex market: A new approach via the dynamic mixture copula-extreme value theory," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 401-414.
    54. Kara, Alper & Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim & Unalmis, Deren, 2021. "Financial contagion and the role of firm characteristics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    55. Meegan, Andrew & Corbet, Shaen & Larkin, Charles, 2018. "Financial market spillovers during the quantitative easing programmes of the global financial crisis (2007–2009) and the European debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 128-148.
    56. Ahrend, Rudiger & Goujard, Antoine, 2014. "Are all forms of financial integration equally risky? Asset price contagion during the global financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 35-53.
    57. Lodge, David & Manu, Ana-Simona & Van Robays, Ine, 2024. "China's footprint in global financial markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers 1/2024, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    58. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2015. "Is Loan Dollarization Contagious across Countries? Evidence from Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 200, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    59. Fernandez, Viviana, 2009. "The behavior of stock returns in the mining industry following the Iraq war," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 274-292, September.
    60. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Mpoha, Salifya, 2024. "Spillover effects from China and the United States to Key Regional Emerging Markets: A dynamic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    61. Hsien-Yi Lee, 2012. "Contagion in International Stock Markets during the Sub Prime Mortgage Crisis," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 2(1), pages 41-53.
    62. Davidson, Sharada Nia, 2020. "Interdependence or contagion: A model switching approach with a focus on Latin America," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 166-197.
    63. de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2009. "Behavioural heterogeneity and shift-contagion: Evidence from the Asian crisis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(11), pages 1929-1944, November.

  46. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Does an Interpemporal Trade Off Between Risk and Return Explain Mean Reversion in Stock Prices?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0011, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Edward Bernard Bastiaan de Rivera y Rivera & Diógenes Manoel Leiva Martin & Emerson Fernandes Marçal & Leonardo Fernando Cruz Basso, 2012. "Present value model between prices and dividends with constant and time-varying expected returns: enterprise-level Brazilian stock market evidence from non-stationary panels," Brazilian Business Review, Fucape Business School, vol. 9(4), pages 51-86, October.
    2. Ashby, M. & Linton, O. B., 2022. "Do Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models Explain Own-history Predictability in Stock Market Returns?," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2259, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    3. Kiseok Nam & Joshua Krausz & Augustine C. Arize, 2014. "Revisiting the intertemporal risk-return relation: asymmetrical effect of unexpected volatility shocks," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2193-2203, December.
    4. Osman Kilic & Joseph M. Marks & Kiseok Nam, 2022. "Predictable asset price dynamics, risk-return tradeoff, and investor behavior," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 749-791, August.
    5. Mordecai Kurz & Maurizio Motolese, "undated". "Endogenous Uncertainty and Market Volatility," Working Papers 99005, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    6. Mili, Mehdi, 2019. "The impact of tradeoff between risk and return on mean reversion in sovereign CDS markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 187-200.
    7. Akarim, Yasemin Deniz & Sevim, Serafettin, 2013. "The impact of mean reversion model on portfolio investment strategies: Empirical evidence from emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 453-459.
    8. Michael William Ashby & Oliver Bruce Linton, 2024. "Do Consumption-Based Asset Pricing Models Explain the Dynamics of Stock Market Returns?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(2), pages 1-41, February.
    9. Nelson Areal & Maria Cortez & Florinda Silva, 2013. "The conditional performance of US mutual funds over different market regimes: do different types of ethical screens matter?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 397-429, December.
    10. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2011. "Lack of consumer confidence and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 225-236, March.
    11. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Anwar, Sajid, 2014. "Time-varying exchange rate exposure and exchange rate risk pricing in the Canadian Equity Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 451-463.
    12. Ashby, M. & Linton, O. B., 2022. "Do Consumption-based Asset Pricing Models Explain Own-history Predictability in Stock Market Returns?," Janeway Institute Working Papers 2226, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Turtle, H.J. & Zhang, Chengping, 2012. "Time-varying performance of international mutual funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 334-348.
    14. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Zakaria Moussa, 2014. "The sensitivity of Fama-French factors to economic uncertainty," Working Papers hal-01015702, HAL.
    15. Azamat Abdymomunov & James Morley, 2011. "Time variation of CAPM betas across market volatility regimes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1463-1478.

  47. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Is There a Structural Break in the Equity Premium?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0024, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.

  48. James C. Morley & Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000. "Why Are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP So Different?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0013, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Guisinger, Amy Y., 2020. "Gender differences in the volatility of work hours and labor demand," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "Reconciling output gaps: unobserved components model and Hodrick-Prescott filter," CAMA Working Papers 2016-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Pierre Perron & Tatsuma Wada, 2015. "Measuring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks and Outliers: Applications to International Data," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2015-016, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    4. Chin Nam Low & Heather Anderson & Ralph Snyder, 2006. "Beverridge Nelson Decomposition With Markov Switching," CAMA Working Papers 2006-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Yue Zhao & Difang Wan, 2018. "Institutional high frequency trading and price discovery: Evidence from an emerging commodity futures market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(2), pages 243-270, February.
    7. Manuel Gonzalez-Astudillo & John M. Roberts, 2016. "When Can Trend-Cycle Decompositions Be Trusted?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-099, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    9. Tobias Hartl & Rolf Tschernig & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Fractional trends in unobserved components models," Papers 2005.03988, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    10. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2023. "Modelling output gaps in the Euro Area with structural breaks: The COVID-19 recession," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1046-1058.
    11. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    12. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
    13. Sbrana, Giacomo, 2013. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 311-316.
    14. Beyer, Robert & Milivojevic, Lazar, 2021. "Dynamics and synchronization of global equilibrium interest rates," IMFS Working Paper Series 146, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    15. Richard H. Clarida & Mark P. Taylor, 2003. "Nonlinear Permanent - Temporary Decompositions in Macroeconomics and Finance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(486), pages 125-139, March.
    16. Johann Fuchs & Enzo Weber, 2013. "A new look at the discouragement and the added worker hypotheses: applying a trend--cycle decomposition to unemployment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(15), pages 1374-1378, October.
    17. Daisuke Nagakura, 2008. "How Are Shocks to Trend and Cycle Correlated? A Simple Methodology for Unidentified Unobserved Components Models," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    18. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "On the identification of multivariate correlated unobserved components models," Working Papers 15-12, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    19. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    20. Robert Dixon & Guay Lim, 2003. "Underlying Inflation in Australia: Are the Existing Measures Satisfactory?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 878, The University of Melbourne.
    21. Ma, Jun & Nelson, Charles R., 2010. "Valid Inference for a Class of Models Where Standard Inference Performs Poorly: Including Nonlinear Regression, ARMA, GARCH, and Unobserved Components," Economics Series 256, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    22. Anni Huang & Narayan Kundan Kishor, 2019. "The rise of dollar credit in emerging market economies and US monetary policy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 530-551, February.
    23. Tino Berger & Gerdie Everaert & Hauke Vierke, 2015. "Testing for time variation in an unobserved components model for the U.S. economy," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 15/903, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    24. M.S.Rafiq, 2006. "Business Cycle Moderation - Good Policies or Good Luck: Evidence and Explanations for the Euro Area," Discussion Paper Series 2006_21, Department of Economics, Loughborough University.
    25. Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Some Reflections on Trend-Cycle Decompositions with Correlated Components," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/23, European University Institute.
    26. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai & Michael Bergman, 2003. "Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustment," CESifo Working Paper Series 924, CESifo.
    27. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Post-Print hal-00956937, HAL.
    28. Breitung, Jorg & Hafner, Christian, 2016. "A simple model for now-casting volatility series," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2016040, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    29. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2017. "Understanding the Relationship between Public and Private Commercial Real Estate Markets," MPRA Paper 83475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Tracking the slowdown in long-run GDP growth," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 81869, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    31. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Jangryoul Kim, 2011. "Legacy of the Two Crises: The Case of Malaysia," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 31-48, December.
    33. Chatterjee, Arpita & Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2017. "Estimating Household Consumption Insurance," Working Papers 2017-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Jul 2019.
    34. Dees, Stephane & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, L. Vanessa & Smith, Ron P., 2008. "Identification of New Keynesian Phillips Curves from a Global Perspective," IZA Discussion Papers 3298, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    35. Andrle, Michal, 2008. "The Role of Trends and Detrending in DSGE Models," MPRA Paper 13289, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2020. "Too many shocks spoil the interpretation," CAMA Working Papers 2020-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    37. Tommaso Proietti, 2009. "The Multistep Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_24, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    38. Vashchelyuk, N.V. (Ващелюк, Н.В.) & Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2016. "Determination of the Output Gap for the Russian Economy [Определение Разрыва Выпуска Для Российской Экономики]," Working Papers 2137, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    39. Jan R. Kim & Keunsuk Chung, 2016. "House prices and business cycles: The case of the UK," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 131-146, June.
    40. Brand, Claus & Mazelis, Falk, 2019. "Taylor-rule consistent estimates of the natural rate of interest," Working Paper Series 2257, European Central Bank.
    41. Luati, Alessandra & Proietti, Tommaso, 2009. "Hyper-spherical and Elliptical Stochastic Cycles," MPRA Paper 15169, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    42. Chen, Xiaoshan & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "Evaluating growth cycle synchronisation in the EU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 342-351, March.
    43. Guillen, Osmani Teixeira Carvalho & Issler, João Victor & Franco Neto, Afonso Arinos de Mello, 2013. "On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century and beyond," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 748, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    44. Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2015. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition Of Output And Euro Area Inflation Forecasts: A Real-Time Approach Based On Model Combination," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 363-393, March.
    45. Max Soloschenko & Enzo Weber, 2021. "Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 109-128, November.
    46. Weber, Enzo & Gehrke, Britta, 2018. "Identifying Asymmetric Effects of Labor Market Reforms," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181513, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    47. Lindblad, Hans & Sellin, Peter, 2006. "A Simultaneous Model of the Swedish Krona, the US Dollar and the Euro," Working Paper Series 193, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    48. Uwe Blien & Oliver Ludewig & Anja Rossen, 2023. "Contradictory effects of technological change across developed countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 580-608, May.
    49. Nicholas Sly & Caroline Weber, 2015. "Global tax policy and the synchronization of business cycles," Research Working Paper RWP 15-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    50. Fukuda, Kosei, 2012. "Illustrating extraordinary shocks causing trend breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1045-1052.
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  49. Charles Engel & James Morley, 2000. "The Adjustment of Prices and the Adjustment of the Exchange Rate," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0009, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Ganguly, Srideep & Breuer, Janice Boucher, 2010. "Nominal exchange rate volatility, relative price volatility, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 840-856, September.
    2. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2004. "Bubbles and Crashes in a Behavioural Finance Model," Working Paper Series 164, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai & Michael Bergman, 2003. "Dissecting the PPP Puzzle: The Unconventional Roles of Nominal Exchange Rate and Price Adjustment," CESifo Working Paper Series 924, CESifo.
    4. Shambaugh, Jay, 2008. "A new look at pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 560-591, June.
    5. Hyeongwoo Kim & Yunxiao Zhang, 2017. "Investigating Properties of Commodity Price Responses to Real and Nominal Shocks," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2017-02, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    6. Hau, Harald, 2000. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 2356, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Aloy, Marcel & Boutahar, Mohamed & Gente, Karine & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: Does one size fit all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1279-1290, May.
    8. Alfred A. Haug & Syed A. Basher, 2004. "Unit Roots, Nonlinear Cointegration and Purchasing Power Parity," Econometrics 0401006, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Nov 2005.
    9. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
    10. Hyeongwoo Kim, 2010. "VECM Estimations of the PPP Reversion Rate Revisited: The Conventional Role of Relative Price Adjustment Restored," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2010-03, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    11. Beckmann, Joscha, 2011. "Nonlinear Adjustment, Purchasing Power Parity and the Role of Nominal Exchange Rates and Prices," Ruhr Economic Papers 272, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Marianna Grimaldi & Paul De Grauwe, 2003. "Bubbling and Crashing Exchange Rates," CESifo Working Paper Series 1045, CESifo.
    13. Mr. Guy M Meredith, 2003. "Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting: What Can We Expect?," IMF Working Papers 2003/021, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Rubaszek, Michał & Beckmann, Joscha & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kwas, Marek, 2022. "Boosting carry with equilibrium exchange rate estimates," Working Paper Series 2731, European Central Bank.
    15. Balázs Világi, 2005. "Dual Inflation and the Real Exchange Rate in New Open Economy Macroeconomics," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 315-349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Maria Eleftheriou & Nikolas A. Müller-Plantenberg, 2018. "The Purchasing Power Parity Fallacy: Time to Reconsider the PPP Hypothesis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 481-515, July.
    17. Choi, Jae Hoon & Song, Seongho, 2022. "Revisiting the PPP puzzle: Nominal exchange rate rigidity and region of inaction," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    18. Raquel Almeida Ramos & Federico Bassi & Dany Lang, 2020. "Bet against the trend and cash in profits," FMM Working Paper 60-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    19. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2003. "Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Model with Noise Traders," Working Papers 162003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    20. Qian Chen & David E. Giles, 2007. "A Saddlepoint Approximation to the Distribution of the Half-Life Estimator in an Autoregressive Model: New Insights Into the PPP Puzzle," Econometrics Working Papers 0703, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    21. Stephan Schulmeister, 2005. "Purchasing Power Parities for Tradables, Exchange Rates and Price Competitiveness," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25656, March.
    22. James Morley & Tara M. Sinclair, 2005. "Testing for Stationarity and Cointegration in an Unobserved Components Framework," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 451, Society for Computational Economics.
    23. Martins Bitans, 2004. "Pass-Through of Exchange Rates to Domestic Prices in East European Countries and the Role of Economic Enviroment," Working Papers 2004/04, Latvijas Banka.
    24. Martin Mandel & Vladimír Tomšík, 2008. "Relativní verze teorie parity kupní síly: problémy empirické verifikace [Relative version of the theory of purchasing power parity: problems of empirical verification]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(6), pages 723-738.
    25. Nakagawa, Hironobu, 2010. "Investigating nonlinearities in real exchange rate adjustment: Threshold cointegration and the dynamics of exchange rates and relative prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 770-790, September.
    26. Khalifa Hassanain, 2017. "Stock Prices and Real Exchange Rate Movements in the Gulf Cooperation Council," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 92-96.
    27. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2006. "PPP in the medium run: The case of Norway," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 700-719, December.
    28. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher, 2011. "Linear or nonlinear cointegration in the purchasing power parity relationship?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 185-196.
    29. Martin Mandel & Vladimír Tomšík, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate of the Czech Koruna and the Prices of Non-tradable Goods and Services [Reálný kurz české koruny a ceny mezinárodně neobchodovatelných statků]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2008(3), pages 3-12.
    30. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    31. Arize, Augustine C. & Malindretos, John & Nam, Kiseok, 2010. "Cointegration, dynamic structure, and the validity of purchasing power parity in African countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 755-768, October.
    32. Juan Jiménez-Martin & M. Robles-Fernandez, 2010. "PPP: Delusion or Reality? Evidence from a Nonlinear Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(5), pages 679-704, November.
    33. Balázs Világi, 2004. "Dual inflation and real exchange rate in new open economy macroeconomics," MNB Working Papers 2004/5, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (Central Bank of Hungary).
    34. Anella Munro, 2004. "What drives the New Zealand dollar?," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 67, june.
    35. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg & Søren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "A Resolution of the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle: Imperfect Knowledge and Long Swings," Discussion Papers 08-31, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    36. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals in a Complex World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 549-575, August.
    37. Paul de Grauwe & Roberto Dieci & Marianna Grimaldi & Paul De Grauwe, 2005. "Fundamental and Non-Fundamental Equilibria in the Foreign Exchange Market. A Behavioural Finance Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 1431, CESifo.
    38. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007. "Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems," MPRA Paper 9174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    39. Paul R. Bergin & Reuven Glick & Jyh-Lin Wu, 2013. "The Micro-Macro Disconnect of Purchasing Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 798-812, July.
    40. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Chen, Pei-Fen, 2008. "A revisit on dissecting the PPP puzzle: Evidence from a nonlinear approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 684-695, July.
    41. Yin-Wong Cheung & Kon S. Lai, 2005. "Nominal Exchange Rate Flexibility and Real Exchange Rate Adjustment: Evidence from Dual Exchange Rates in Developing Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 1512, CESifo.
    42. Yin-Wong Cheung & Javier Gardeazabal & Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "Exchange Rate Dynamics: Where is the Saddle Path?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1129, CESifo.
    43. Winters, L Alan & Fernandes, Ana P., 2018. "The effect of exchange rate shocks on firm-level exports: evidence from the Brexit vote," CEPR Discussion Papers 13253, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    44. Paul Alagidede & George Tweneboah & Anokye M. Adam, 2008. "Nominal Exchange Rates and Price Convergence in the West African Monetary Zone," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 7(3), pages 181-198, December.
    45. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lee, Chingnun & Wang, Tzu-Wei, 2011. "A re-examination on dissecting the purchasing power parity puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 572-586, April.

  50. Chang-Jin Kim & James C. Morley & Charles Nelson, 2000. "Is There a Positive Relationship between Stock Market Volatility and the Equity Premium?," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0023, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.

    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001. "Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
    2. Laurent E. Calvet & Adlai J. Fisher, 2005. "Multifrequency News and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 11441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Miguel Martin-Valmayor, 2021. "Persistence in the market risk premium: evidence across countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 45(3), pages 413-427, July.
    4. Hui Guo & Zijun Wang & Jian Yang, 2013. "Time‐Varying Risk–Return Trade‐off in the Stock Market," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(4), pages 623-650, June.
    5. Bua, Giovanna & Trecroci, Carmine, 2016. "International Equity Markets Interdependence: Bigger Shocks or Contagion in the 21st Century?," MPRA Paper 74771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Ghysels, Eric & Guérin, Pierre & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2014. "Regime switches in the risk–return trade-off," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 118-138.
    7. Jinho Bae, 2011. "Does knowing the volatility states affect the market risk premium?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 83-94, February.
    8. Azamat Abdymomunov, 2013. "Regime-switching measure of systemic financial stress," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 455-470, August.
    9. Ender Su & John Bilson, 2011. "Trading asymmetric trend and volatility by leverage trend GARCH in Taiwan stock index," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3891-3905.
    10. Kim, Chang-Jin & Piger, Jeremy & Startz, Richard, 2008. "Estimation of Markov regime-switching regression models with endogenous switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(2), pages 263-273, April.
    11. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2014. "Risk, Return, and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Jia Liu & John M. Maheu, 2018. "Improving Markov switching models using realized variance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 297-318, April.
    13. Grillini, Stefano & Ozkan, Aydin & Sharma, Abhijit & Al Janabi, Mazin A.M., 2019. "Pricing of time-varying illiquidity within the Eurozone: Evidence using a Markov switching liquidity-adjusted capital asset pricing model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 145-158.
    14. Marco Bazzi & Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2017. "Time-Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 458-478, May.
    15. Bazgour, Tarik & Heuchenne, Cédric & Hübner, Georges & Sougné, Danielle, 2021. "How do volatility regimes affect the pricing of quality and liquidity in the stock market?," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2021038, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    16. Huang, Yu-Fan & Startz, Richard, 2020. "Improved recession dating using stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 507-514.
    17. de Bondt, Gabe & Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Santabárbara, Daniel, 2010. "Booms and busts in China's stock market: Estimates based on fundamentals," Working Paper Series 1190, European Central Bank.
    18. Shin-Yun Wang & Ming-Che Chuang & Shih-Kuei Lin & So-De Shyu, 2021. "Option pricing under stock market cycles with jump risks: evidence from the S&P 500 index," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 25-51, January.
    19. Bernard Ben Sita, 2013. "Volatility links between US industries," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(15), pages 1273-1286, August.
    20. Arshanapalli, Bala & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Nelson, William, 2013. "The role of jump dynamics in the risk–return relationship," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 212-218.
    21. Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Markov switching models in asset pricing research," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-44, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    22. Buranavityawut, Nonthipoth & Freeman, Mark C. & Freeman, Nisih, 2006. "Has the equity premium been low for 40 years?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 191-205, August.
    23. Lai, Jing-yi, 2012. "Shock-dependent conditional skewness in international aggregate stock markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 72-83.
    24. Hanna, Alan J., 2018. "A top-down approach to identifying bull and bear market states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 93-110.
    25. Francesco Guidi, 2009. "Volatility and Long-Term Relations in Equity Markets: Empirical Evidence from Germany, Switzerland, and the UK," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 7-39, June.
    26. Nelson Areal & Maria Cortez & Florinda Silva, 2013. "The conditional performance of US mutual funds over different market regimes: do different types of ethical screens matter?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 397-429, December.
    27. Bae, Jinho & Kim, Chang-Jin & Nelson, Charles R., 2007. "Why are stock returns and volatility negatively correlated?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-58, January.
    28. Ormos, Mihály & Timotity, Dusan, 2016. "Unravelling the asymmetric volatility puzzle: A novel explanation of volatility through anchoring," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 345-354.
    29. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
    30. Sei‐Wan Kim & Bong‐Soo Lee, 2008. "Stock Returns, Asymmetric Volatility, Risk Aversion, And Business Cycle: Some New Evidence," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 46(2), pages 131-148, April.
    31. Sebastian Fossati, 2017. "Output Growth And Structural Reform In Latin America: Have Business Cycles Changed?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(1), pages 62-75, January.
    32. Walentin Karl, 2010. "Earnings Inequality and the Equity Premium," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, November.
    33. Amanjot Singh & Manjit Singh, 2016. "Risk–Return Relationship in BRIC Equity Markets: Evidence from Markov Regime Switching Model with Time-varying Transition Probabilities," Metamorphosis: A Journal of Management Research, , vol. 15(2), pages 69-78, December.
    34. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2016. "Does the return-state-varying relationship between risk and return matter in modeling the time series process of stock return?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 72-87.
    35. Nauzer Balsara & Lin Zheng & Andrea Vidozzi & Luca Vidozzi, 2006. "Explaining momentum profits with an epidemic diffusion model," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 407-422, September.
    36. Hematizadeh, Roksana & Tajaddini, Reza & Hallahan, Terrence, 2022. "Dynamic asset allocation strategy using a state-dependent Markov model: Applications to international equity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    37. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Zakaria Moussa, 2014. "The sensitivity of Fama-French factors to economic uncertainty," Working Papers hal-01015702, HAL.
    38. Scott Mayfield, E., 2004. "Estimating the market risk premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(3), pages 465-496, September.
    39. Liu, Xiaochun, 2017. "Unfolded risk-return trade-offs and links to Macroeconomic Dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1-19.
    40. Kent Wang & Yuqiang Guo, 2014. "Predictability of time-varying jump premiums: Evidence based on calibration," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(3), pages 369-394, August.
    41. Kim Chang-Jin & Kim Yunmi, 2019. "A unified framework jointly explaining business conditions, stock returns, volatility and “volatility feedback news” effects," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 23(2), pages 1-14, April.
    42. Azamat Abdymomunov & James Morley, 2011. "Time variation of CAPM betas across market volatility regimes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1463-1478.

Articles

  1. James Morley & Trung Duc Tran & Benjamin Wong, 2024. "A Simple Correction for Misspecification in Trend-Cycle Decompositions with an Application to Estimating r," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(2), pages 665-680, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Morley, James & Rodríguez-Palenzuela, Diego & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2023. "Estimating the euro area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Berger, Tino & Morley, James & Wong, Benjamin, 2023. "Nowcasting the output gap," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 232(1), pages 18-34.
    • Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the output gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2022. "Debt and financial market contagion," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(4), pages 1599-1648, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2022. "Why Has the U.S. Economy Stagnated since the Great Recession?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 246-258, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Fazzari Steven M. & Morley James & Panovska Irina, 2021. "When is discretionary fiscal policy effective?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 25(4), pages 229-254, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Wifag Adnan & Kerim Peren Arin & Aysegul Corakci & Nicola Spagnolo, 2022. "On the heterogeneous effects of tax policy on labor market outcomes," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 88(3), pages 991-1036, January.
    2. Haug, Alfred A. & Sznajderska, Anna, 2024. "Government spending multipliers: Is there a difference between government consumption and investment purchases?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    3. Alfred A. Haug & India Power, 2022. "Government Spending Multipliers in Times of Tight and Loose Monetary Policy in New Zealand," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 98(322), pages 249-270, September.

  7. Arpita Chatterjee & James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2021. "Estimating household consumption insurance," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 628-635, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Luke Hartigan & James Morley, 2020. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Australian Economy and the Effects of Inflation Targeting," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 96(314), pages 271-293, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Morley, James & Panovska, Irina B., 2020. "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic In Industrialized Economies?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(6), pages 1403-1436, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  10. James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Estimating and accounting for the output gap with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(1), pages 1-18, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.

    Cited by:

    1. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2020. "Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Discussion Paper Series 2001, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    3. Donayre, Luiggi & Panovska, Irina, 2021. "Recession-specific recoveries: L’s, U’s and everything in between," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 209(C).
    4. Elroukh, Ahmed W. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Panovska, Irina, 2020. "A look at jobless recoveries in G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

  12. Günes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2018. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of the Output Gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(3), pages 550-566, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  13. Donayre Luiggi & Eo Yunjong & Morley James, 2018. "Improving likelihood-ratio-based confidence intervals for threshold parameters in finite samples," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  14. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2018. "The changing transmission mechanism of US monetary policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 959-987, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  15. Kulish, Mariano & Morley, James & Robinson, Tim, 2017. "Estimating DSGE models with zero interest rate policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 35-49.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  16. Morley, James & Panovska, Irina B. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2017. "Testing Stationarity With Unobserved-Components Models," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(1), pages 160-182, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Jmaes McNeil, 2020. "Monetary policy and the term structure of Inflation expectations with information frictions," Working Papers daleconwp2020-07, Dalhousie University, Department of Economics.
    2. Tommaso Proietti, 2021. "Predictability, real time estimation, and the formulation of unobserved components models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5), pages 433-454, April.

  17. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2016. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 699-728, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  18. James Morley, 2016. "Macro-Finance Linkages," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(4), pages 698-711, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Cody Yu-Ling Hsiao & James Morley, 2015. "Debt and Financial Market Contagion," Discussion Papers 2015-02, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    2. Elena Deryugina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Explaining the lead–lag pattern in the money–inflation relationship: a microsimulation approach," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 1113-1128, September.
    3. Li, Boyao & Wang, Yougui, 2020. "Money creation within the macroeconomy: An integrated model of banking," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Javid Iqbal & Khalid Riaz, 2022. "Predicting future financial performance of banks from management’s tone in the textual disclosures," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 2691-2721, August.
    5. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    6. Kose, M. Ayhan & Claessens, Stijn, 2017. "Asset Prices and Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Survey," CEPR Discussion Papers 12460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Krug, Sebastian, 2017. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks "lean against the wind" to foster macro-financial stability?," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-85, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Javid Iqbal & Muhammad Khalid Sohail & Aymen Irshad & Rao Aamir Khan, 2024. "Risk management disclosures and banks financial performance: evidence from emerging markets," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(1), pages 1-21, February.
    9. Caporin, Massimiliano & Costola, Michele & Garibal, Jean-Charles & Maillet, Bertrand, 2022. "Systemic risk and severe economic downturns: A targeted and sparse analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    10. Kara, Alper & Hacihasanoglu, Yavuz Selim & Unalmis, Deren, 2021. "Financial contagion and the role of firm characteristics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    11. Narcissa Balta & Bořek Vašíček, 2020. "Financial channels and economic activity in the euro area: a large-scale Bayesian VAR approach," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 431-451, May.

  19. Kevin Lee & James Morley & Kalvinder Shields, 2015. "The Meta Taylor Rule," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 73-98, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  20. Morley, James & Piger, Jeremy & Rasche, Robert, 2015. "Inflation In The G7: Mind The Gap(S)?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 883-912, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  21. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James & Piger, Jeremy, 2015. "Introduction To “Special Issue On The Empirical Analysis Of Business Cycles, Financial Markets, And Inflation: Essays In Honor Of Charles Nelson”," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(4), pages 723-727, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Feld, Lars P. & Köhler, Ekkehard A., 2015. "Is Switzerland an interest rate island after all? Time series and non-linear switching regime evidence," Freiburg Discussion Papers on Constitutional Economics 15/08, Walter Eucken Institut e.V..

  22. Kishor, N. Kundan & Morley, James, 2015. "What factors drive the price–rent ratio for the housing market? A modified present-value analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 235-249.

    Cited by:

    1. Kim, Jan R. & Lim, Gieyoung, 2016. "Fundamentals and rational bubbles in the Korean housing market: A modified present-value approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 174-181.
    2. Masud Alam, 2024. "Volatility in U.S. Housing Sector and the REIT Equity Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 505-544, October.
    3. Rizi, Majid Haghani, 2021. "What moves housing markets: A state-space approach of the price-income ratio," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 167(C), pages 96-107.
    4. Shikong (Scott) Luo & Jun Ma, 2024. "International Housing Markets and the U.S. Subprime Crisis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(2-3), pages 647-669, March.
    5. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Matei Demetrescu, 2016. "Residual-augmented IVX predictive regression," Working Papers w201605, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    6. Shi, Shuping, 2017. "Speculative bubbles or market fundamentals? An investigation of US regional housing markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 101-111.
    7. Bergman, U. Michael & Sørensen, Peter Birch, 2021. "The interaction of actual and fundamental house prices: A general model with an application to Sweden," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Plogmann, Jana & Mußhoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Ritter, Matthias, 2019. "What Moves the German Land Market? A Decomposition of the Land Rent-Price Ratio," 165th Seminar, April 4-5, 2019, Berlin, Germany 288444, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Jihee Ann & Cheolbeom Park, 2020. "Demographic Structure and House Prices in the United States: A Reconciliation Using Metropolitan Area Data," Discussion Paper Series 2005, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    10. Lee, Hung-Wei & Lin, Che-Chun & Tsai, I-Chun, 2023. "Another application of call options: Explaining the divergence between the housing market and the rental market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    11. Michael A. Flor & Torben Klarl, 2015. "On the Cyclicity of Regional House Prices: New Evidence for U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas," CESifo Working Paper Series 5471, CESifo.
    12. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2021. "The price–rent ratio inequality in Scottish Cities: fluctuations in discount rates and expected rent growth," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-15, September.
    13. Li, Yehua & Qiu, Yumou & Xu, Yuhang, 2022. "From multivariate to functional data analysis: Fundamentals, recent developments, and emerging areas," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    14. Bettina Bruggemann & Zachary L. Mahone, 2023. "Entrepreneurial Rates of Return and Wealth Inequality," Department of Economics Working Papers 2023-03, McMaster University.
    15. Pásztor, Szabolcs & Kovács, Levente, 2018. "A globális jelzálogpiac helyzete és kihívásai [The state of global mortgage markets and the challenges to them]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1225-1256.
    16. Floro, Danvee, 2019. "Testing the predictive ability of house price bubbles for macroeconomic performance: A meta-analytic approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 164-181.
    17. Robert Forster & Xiaojin Sun, 2024. "Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rates on Housing Returns: Evidence from an Interacted Panel VAR," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 477-504, October.
    18. MeiChi Huang, 2021. "Regime switches and permanent changes in impacts of housing risk factors on MSA‐level housing returns," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 310-342, January.
    19. Haozhe Zhang & Yehua Li, 2020. "Unified Principal Component Analysis for Sparse and Dense Functional Data under Spatial Dependency," Papers 2006.13489, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2021.
    20. Dieckelmann, Daniel & Hempell, Hannah S. & Jarmulska, Barbara & Lang, Jan Hannes & Rusnák, Marek, 2023. "House prices and ultra-low interest rates: exploring the non-linear nexus," Working Paper Series 2789, European Central Bank.
    21. Daniel Lo & Yung Yau & Michael McCord & Martin Haran, 2022. "Dynamics between Direct Industrial Real Estate and the Macroeconomy: An Empirical Study of Hong Kong," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-23, September.

  23. Lo, Ming Chien & Morley, James, 2015. "Bayesian analysis of nonlinear exchange rate dynamics and the purchasing power parity persistence puzzle," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 285-302.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  24. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2015. "Likelihood‐ratio‐based confidence sets for the timing of structural breaks," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 6(2), pages 463-497, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  25. Fazzari Steven M. & Morley James & Panovska Irina, 2015. "State-dependent effects of fiscal policy," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 285-315, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  26. Liu, Yuelin & Morley, James, 2014. "Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-68.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  27. Morley James & Piger Jeremy & Tien Pao-Lin, 2013. "Reproducing business cycle features: are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information?," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(5), pages 483-498, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  28. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2012. "The Asymmetric Business Cycle," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 208-221, February.

    Cited by:

    1. Carstensen, Kai & Heinrich, Markus & Reif, Magnus & Wolters, Maik H., 2020. "Predicting ordinary and severe recessions with a three-state Markov-switching dynamic factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 829-850.
    2. Joshua C.C. Chan & Angelia L. Grant, 2016. "Reconciling output gaps: unobserved components model and Hodrick-Prescott filter," CAMA Working Papers 2016-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, 2012. "Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record," Working Papers (Old Series) 1214, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    4. Fernandes, Mário Correia & Dutra, Tiago Mota & Dias, José Carlos & Teixeira, João C.A., 2023. "Modelling output gaps in the Euro Area with structural breaks: The COVID-19 recession," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1046-1058.
    5. Yu-Fan Huang & Sui Luo, 2018. "Potential output and inflation dynamics after the Great Recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(2), pages 495-517, September.
    6. Frédérique Bec & Annabelle de Gaye, 2019. "Le modèle autorégressif autorégressif à seuil avec effet rebond : Une application aux rendements boursiers français et américains ," Working Papers hal-02014663, HAL.
    7. Chang, Andrew C. & Hanson, Tyler J., 2016. "The accuracy of forecasts prepared for the Federal Open Market Committee," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 23-43.
    8. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    9. Fernando Delbianco & Andrés Fioriti & Fernando Tohmé, 2021. "Markov Chains, Eigenvalues and the Stabilityof Economic Growth Processes," Working Papers 88, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    10. Shi, Qi & Li, Bin, 2022. "Further evidence on financial information and economic activity forecasts in the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    11. Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.
    12. Kamel Helali, 2022. "Markov Switching-Vector AutoRegression Model Analysis of the Economic and Growth Cycles in Tunisia and Its Main European Partners," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(1), pages 656-686, March.
    13. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Figueres, Juan Manuel, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty and unemployment in the United States: A nonlinear approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 31-34.
    14. Thomas Chuffart & Emma Hooper, 2019. "An investigation of oil prices impact on sovereign credit default swaps in Russia and Venezuela," Post-Print hal-02194152, HAL.
    15. Michal Franta & Jan Libich, 2024. "Holding the economy by the tail: analysis of short- and long-run macroeconomic risks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(4), pages 1443-1489, April.
    16. Hiroyuki Kasahara & Katsumi Shimotsu, 2018. "Testing the Number of Regimes in Markov Regime Switching Models," Papers 1801.06862, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2018.
    17. Balleer, Almut & Noeller, Marvin, 2023. "Monetary policy in the presence of supply constraints: Evidence from German firm-level data," Ruhr Economic Papers 1060, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Frédérique Bec & Marie Bessec, 2013. "Inventory Investment Dynamics and Recoveries: A Comparison of Manufacturing and Retail Trade Sectors," Post-Print hal-01515613, HAL.
    19. Almut Balleer & Marvin Noeller, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 10261, CESifo.
    20. Guérin, Pierre & Maurin, Laurent & Mohr, Matthias, 2015. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition Of Output And Euro Area Inflation Forecasts: A Real-Time Approach Based On Model Combination," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 363-393, March.
    21. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    22. Weber, Enzo & Gehrke, Britta, 2018. "Identifying Asymmetric Effects of Labor Market Reforms," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181513, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    23. Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," CAMA Working Papers 2017-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    24. David Berger & Ian Dew-Becker & Stefano Giglio, 2017. "Uncertainty Shocks as Second-Moment News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 23796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Frédérique BEC & Songlin ZENG, 2013. "Do Stock Returns Rebound After Bear Markets? An Empirical Analysis From Five OECD Countries," THEMA Working Papers 2013-21, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    26. Panovska, Irina & Ramamurthy, Srikanth, 2022. "Decomposing the output gap with inflation learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    27. Shen, Wenyi, 2015. "News, disaster risk, and time-varying uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 459-479.
    28. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Disasters Everywhere: The Costs of Business Cycles Reconsidered," NBER Working Papers 26962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Nöller, Marvin & Balleer, Almut, 2023. "Monetary Policy in the Presence of Supply Constraints: Evidence from German Firm-level Data," VfS Annual Conference 2023 (Regensburg): Growth and the "sociale Frage" 277638, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    30. Garratt, Anthony & Mise, Emi, 2014. "Forecasting exchange rates using panel model and model averaging," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 32-40.
    31. Giovanni Caggiano & Efrem Castelnuovo & Gabriela Nodari, 2017. "Uncertainty and Monetary Policy in Good and Bad Times," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2017n09, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    32. Donayre, Luiggi, 2022. "On the behavior of Okun's law across business cycles," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    33. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
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  29. Morley, James C., 2011. "The Two Interpretations Of The Beveridge–Nelson Decomposition," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 419-439, June.

    Cited by:

    1. Blasques, F. & van Brummelen, J. & Gorgi, P. & Koopman, S.J., 2024. "A robust Beveridge–Nelson decomposition using a score-driven approach with an application," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 236(C).
    2. Álvarez, Luis J. & Gómez-Loscos, Ana, 2018. "A menu on output gap estimation methods," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 827-850.
    3. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    4. Tommaso Proietti, 2009. "The Multistep Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_24, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    5. Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," CAMA Working Papers 2017-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2015. "Trend Dominance in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Studies in Economics 1518, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    7. James McNeil & Gregor W. Smith, 2023. "The All‐Gap Phillips Curve," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(2), pages 269-282, April.
    8. Mardi Dungey & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jing Jian & Simon van Norden, 2013. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition: Implications from an Exact Structural Identification," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-23, CIRANO.
    9. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "An information diffusion-based model of oil futures price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 518-525.
    10. Donayre, Luiggi, 2014. "Estimated Thresholds In The Response Of Output To Monetary Policy: Are Large Policy Changes Less Effective?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 41-64, January.
    11. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring economic slack in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 35-50, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Morley, James & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 220-226, October.
    13. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    14. Enrique Martínez García, 2020. "Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest," Globalization Institute Working Papers 403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 20 Feb 2021.

  30. Azamat Abdymomunov & James Morley, 2011. "Time variation of CAPM betas across market volatility regimes," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1463-1478.

    Cited by:

    1. Carmine Trecroci, 2010. "Multifactors risk loadings and abnormal returns under uncertainty and learning," Working Papers 1011, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
    2. Filip Dariusz & Rogala Tomasz, 2021. "Analysis of Polish mutual funds performance: a Markovian approach," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 22(1), pages 115-130, March.
    3. Bingxin Li & Natalia Piqueira, 2019. "State-dependent size and value premium: evidence from a regime-switching asset pricing model," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 229-249, May.
    4. Yao Zheng & Peihwang Wei & Eric Osmer, 2022. "The relation between earnings and price momentum: Does it vary across regimes?," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 1145-1213, April.
    5. Jieting Chen & Yuichiro Kawaguchi, 2018. "Multi-Factor Asset-Pricing Models under Markov Regime Switches: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Nelson Areal & Maria Cortez & Florinda Silva, 2013. "The conditional performance of US mutual funds over different market regimes: do different types of ethical screens matter?," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 397-429, December.
    7. Mabekebeke Segojane & Godfrey Ndlovu, 2022. "An Investigation of the Beta Anomaly in Emerging Markets: A South African Case," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-18, May.
    8. Mamadou Cisse & Mamadou Konte & Mohamed Toure & Smael Afolabi Assani, 2019. "Contribution to the Valuation of BRVM’s Assets: A Conditional CAPM Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-15, February.
    9. Accolley, Delali, 2021. "Some Markov-Switching Models for the Toronto Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 108072, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Brandon Renfro, 2019. "The Low Beta Anomaly and Estimation Interval," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(1), pages 203-203, February.
    11. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Zakaria Moussa, 2014. "The sensitivity of Fama-French factors to economic uncertainty," Working Papers hal-01015702, HAL.
    12. Negrea, Bogdan & Toma, Mihai, 2017. "Dynamic CAPM under ambiguity—An experimental approach," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 22-32.
    13. Jiang, Minqi & Liu, Jiapeng & Zhang, Lu, 2021. "An extended regularized Kalman filter based on Genetic Algorithm: Application to dynamic asset pricing models," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 28-44.

  31. Neal Ghosh & Chris Varvares & James Morley, 2009. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Output," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 220-228, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Malek KhojastehNeghad & Raheleh Hosseini, 0. "Effects of Oil Shocks on the Unemployment: GVAR Approach," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 20(65), pages 50-69, September.

  32. Kang Kyu Ho & Kim Chang-Jin & Morley James, 2009. "Changes in U.S. Inflation Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(4), pages 1-23, September.

    Cited by:

    1. Peersman, Gert & Straub, Roland & Hofmann, Boris, 2010. "Time variation in U.S. wage dynamics," Working Paper Series 1230, European Central Bank.
    2. Gbaguidi DAVID, 2011. "Expectations Impact On The Effectiveness Of The Inflation-Real Activity Trade-Off," Theoretical and Practical Research in the Economic Fields, ASERS Publishing, vol. 2(2), pages 141-181.
    3. Myers, Robert J. & Johnson, Stanley R. & Helmar, Michael & Baumes, Harry, 2018. "Long-run and short-run relationships between oil prices, producer prices, and consumer prices: What can we learn from a permanent-transitory decomposition?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 175-190.
    4. Jinho Bae & Chang-Jin Kim & Dong Heon Kim, 2011. "The Evolution of the Monetary Policy Regimes in the U.S," Discussion Paper Series 1102, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    5. Tillmann, Peter & Wolters, Maik Hendrik, 2012. "The changing dynamics of US inflation persistence: A quantile regression approach," IMFS Working Paper Series 60, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    6. Andrés Felipe Londono & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 30(68), pages 14-71, June.
    7. Rodrigues, Paulo M.M. & Sibbertsen, Philipp & Voges, Michelle, 2019. "Testing for breaks in the cointegrating relationship: On the stability of government bond markets' equilibrium," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-656, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    8. Conrad, Christian & Eife, Thomas A., 2012. "Explaining inflation-gap persistence by a time-varying Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 419-428.
    9. Otilia Boldea & Alastair R. Hall, 2012. "Estimation and Inference in Unstable Nonlinear Least Squares Models," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 174, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    10. Martins, Luis F. & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2014. "Testing for persistence change in fractionally integrated models: An application to world inflation rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 502-522.
    11. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    12. Luis Uzeda, 2018. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Staff Working Papers 18-14, Bank of Canada.
    13. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Mohamed Boutahar & David Gbaguidi, 2009. "Which Econometric Specification to Characterize the U.S. Inflation Rate Process?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 145-172, September.
    15. Kruse Robinson & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Noriega Antonio E., 2017. "Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 1-28, June.
    16. Semih Emre Çekin & Victor J. Valcarcel, 2020. "Inflation volatility and inflation in the wake of the great recession," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1997-2015, October.
    17. Belomestny, Denis & Krymova, Ekaterina & Polbin, Andrey, 2021. "Bayesian TVP-VARX models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    18. Jaromir Baxa & Miroslav Plasil & Borek Vasicek, 2013. "Inflation and the Steeplechase Between Economic Activity Variables," Working Papers 2013/15, Czech National Bank.
    19. Fossati, Sebastian, 2014. "Output Growth and Commodity Prices in Latin America: What Has Changed?," Working Papers 2014-11, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    20. Eo Yunjong, 2016. "Structural changes in inflation dynamics: multiple breaks at different dates for different parameters," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 211-231, June.
    21. Denis Belomestny & Ekaterina Krymova & Andrey Polbin, 2020. "Estimating TVP-VAR models with time invariant long-run multipliers," Papers 2008.00718, arXiv.org.
    22. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2009. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Working Papers 2009-02, Banco de México.
    23. Pym Manopimoke & Vorada Limjaroenrat, 2016. "Trend Inflation Estimates for Thailand from Disaggregated Data," PIER Discussion Papers 51, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    24. Michael Fritsch & Alina Sorgner & Michael Wyrwich & Evguenii Zazdravnykh, 2016. "Historical Shocks and Persistence of Economic Activity: Evidence from a Unique Natural Experiment," Jena Economics Research Papers 2016-007, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    25. Michelle Chan & Silvia Matos, 2011. "Changes In Brazilian Inflationpersistence," Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    26. Chang‐Jin Kim & Pym Manopimoke & Charles R. Nelson, 2014. "Trend Inflation and the Nature of Structural Breaks in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(2-3), pages 253-266, March.
    27. Baxa, Jaromír & Plašil, Miroslav & Vašíček, Bořek, 2015. "Changes in inflation dynamics under inflation targeting? Evidence from Central European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-130.
    28. Alexander Yu. Apokin & Irina B. Ipatova, 2016. "Structural Breaks in Potential GDP Of Three Major Economies: Just Impaired Credit or the “New Normal”?," HSE Working papers WP BRP 142/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    29. Belkhouja, Mustapha & Mootamri, Imene, 2016. "Long memory and structural change in the G7 inflation dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 450-462.
    30. Gbaguidi, David Sedo, 2011. "Regime Switching in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve with Non-zero Steady-state Inflation Rate," MPRA Paper 35481, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues & Philipp Sibbertsen & Michelle Voges, 2024. "The stability of government bond markets’ equilibrium and the interdependence of lending rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2503-2538, December.
    32. Gamber, Edward N. & Smith, Julie K. & Eftimoiu, Raluca, 2015. "The dynamic relationship between core and headline inflation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 38-53.

  33. Chang-Jin Kim & James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2008. "Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 173-191.

    Cited by:

    1. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James C., 2008. "Likelihood-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 10372, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. William D. Craighead & Pao-Lin Tien, 2013. "Nominal Shocks and Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Two Centuries," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2013-002, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    3. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2011. "Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2011-07, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2014.
    4. Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2009-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    5. Norhana Endut & James Morley & Pao-Lin Tien, 2015. "The Changing Transmission Mechanism of U.S. Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2015-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    6. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae H. Kim, 2012. "Exchange-rate return predictability and the adaptive markets hypothesis: Evidence from major foreign exchange rates," Post-Print hal-00958288, HAL.
    7. Enzo Weber, 2011. "Analyzing U.S. Output and the Great Moderation by Simultaneous Unobserved Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1579-1597, December.
    8. Rizwan Khalid & Choudhry Tanveer Shehzad & Bushra Naqvi, 2023. "Impact of capital account liberalization on stock market crashes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3700-3726, October.
    9. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2015. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    10. Marcel Förster, 2013. "The Great Moderation: Inventories, Shocks or Monetary Policy?," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201348, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    11. Enders, Walter & Ma, Jun, 2011. "Sources of the great moderation: A time-series analysis of GDP subsectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 67-79, January.

  34. Morley, James & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 220-226, October.

    Cited by:

    1. Angelia L. Grant & Joshua C.C. Chan, 2017. "A Bayesian Model Comparison for Trend‐Cycle Decompositions of Output," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 525-552, March.
    2. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    3. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    4. Kim, Jaeho & Linn, Scott C., 2022. "Price discovery under model uncertainty," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    5. Eo, Yunjong & Morley, James, 2023. "Does the Survey of Professional Forecasters help predict the shape of recessions in real time?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    6. Sui Luo & Yu‐Fan Huang & Richard Startz, 2021. "Are Recoveries all the Same: GDP and TFP?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(5), pages 1111-1129, October.
    7. Yunjong Eo & James Morley, 2020. "Why has the U.S. economy stagnated since the Great Recession?," Discussion Paper Series 2001, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
    8. Sinclair Tara M, 2009. "Asymmetry in the Business Cycle: Friedman's Plucking Model with Correlated Innovations," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-31, December.
    9. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Yuanhua Feng, 2016. "Growth Trends and Systematic Patterns of Booms and Busts - Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics -," Working Papers CIE 96, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    10. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
    11. James Morley & Irina B Panovska, 2017. "Is Business Cycle Asymmetry Intrinsic in Industrialized Economies?," Discussion Papers 2016-12A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    12. James Morley, 2019. "The business cycle: periodic pandemic or rollercoaster ride?," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 425-431, August.
    13. Cremaschini, Alessandro & Maruotti, Antonello, 2023. "A finite mixture analysis of structural breaks in the G-7 gross domestic product series," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 76-90.
    14. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring economic slack in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Globalisation, inflation and monetary policy in Asia and the Pacific, volume 77, pages 35-50, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Keun Yeong Lee, 2023. "The synchronization between Korea's and Japan's business cycles," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 435-465, December.
    16. Caraiani, Petre, 2012. "Stylized facts of business cycles in a transition economy in time and frequency," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2163-2173.
    17. Elroukh, Ahmed W. & Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex & Panovska, Irina, 2020. "A look at jobless recoveries in G7 countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. James Morley, 2014. "Measuring Economic Slack: A Forecast-Based Approach with Applications to Economies in Asia and the Pacific," BIS Working Papers 451, Bank for International Settlements.

  35. James C. Morley, 2007. "The Slow Adjustment of Aggregate Consumption to Permanent Income," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(2-3), pages 615-638, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Trenkler, Carsten & Weber, Enzo, 2015. "On the identification of multivariate correlated unobserved components models," Working Papers 15-12, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    2. Anni Huang & Narayan Kundan Kishor, 2019. "The rise of dollar credit in emerging market economies and US monetary policy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 530-551, February.
    3. Ryan R. Brady & Derek Stimel, 2011. "How the Housing and Financial Wealth Effects have changed over Time," Departmental Working Papers 31, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    4. Kishor, N. Kundan, 2017. "Understanding the Relationship between Public and Private Commercial Real Estate Markets," MPRA Paper 83475, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jun Ma & Mark E. Wohar, 2013. "An Unobserved Components Model that Yields Business and Medium‐Run Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(7), pages 1351-1373, October.
    6. Mario J. Crucini & Mototsugu Shintani, 2015. "Measuring international business cycles by saving for a rainy day," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 1266-1290, November.
    7. Max Soloschenko & Enzo Weber, 2021. "Trend-Cycle Interactions and the Subprime Crisis: Analysis of US and Canadian Output," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(2), pages 109-128, November.
    8. G. Everaert, 2007. "Estimating Long-Run Relationships between Observed Integrated Variables by Unobserved Component Methods," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 07/452, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    9. Attfield, Cliff & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2010. "Balanced growth and the great ratios: New evidence for the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 937-956, December.
    10. Sinchan Mitra & Tara M. Sinclair, "undated". "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2509, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    11. He, Dong & Liao, Wei & Wu, Tommy, 2015. "Hong Kong's growth synchronization with China and the US: A trend and cycle analysis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 10-28.
    12. Hessler, Andrew, 2023. "Unobserved components model estimates of credit cycles: Tests and predictions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    13. Michael D. Bradley & Dennis W. Jansen & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "How Well Does "Core" Inflation Capture Permanent Price Changes?," CAMA Working Papers 2013-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2014. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41B, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    15. Morley, James & Singh, Aarti, 2009. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Working Papers 2009-04, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    16. Tara Sinclair & Yeuqing Jia, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World," Working Papers 2010-08, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    17. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2012. "Inventory Mistakes and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    18. Arabinda Basistha, 2009. "Hours per capita and productivity: evidence from correlated unobserved components models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(1), pages 187-206.
    19. Ivan Mendieta-Munoz & Mengheng Li, 2019. "The Multivariate Simultaneous Unobserved Compenents Model and Identification via Heteroskedasticity," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2019_06, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    20. James Morley & Irina B. Panovska & Tara M. Sinclair, 2013. "Testing Stationarity for Unobserved Components Models," Discussion Papers 2012-41A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    21. James Morley & Tara M. Sinclair, 2005. "Testing for Stationarity and Cointegration in an Unobserved Components Framework," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 451, Society for Computational Economics.
    22. Riccardo Corradini, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of Permanent Income Hypothesis Applied to Italy using State Space Models with non zero correlation between trend and cycle," Econometrics 0509009, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Stephan, Gaëtan & Lecumberry, Julien, 2015. "The German unemployment since the Hartz reforms: Permanent or transitory fall?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 49-54.
    24. Ebadi Esmaeil & Are Wasiu, 2023. "Reinvestigating the U.S. Consumption Function: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags Approach," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-22, January.
    25. Soloschenko, Max & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Capturing the Interaction of Trend, Cycle, Expectations and Risk Premia in the US Term Structure," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 475, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    26. Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2024. "Time-varying investment dynamics in the USA," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2024_01, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    27. Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2014. "Determining what drives stock returns: Proper inference is crucial: Evidence from the UK," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 371-390.
    28. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components," University of Regensburg Working Papers in Business, Economics and Management Information Systems 480, University of Regensburg, Department of Economics.
    29. Merike Kukk, 2015. "How Did Household Indebtedness Hamper Consumption during the Recession? Evidence from Micro Data," a/ Working Papers Series 1505, Italian Association for the Study of Economic Asymmetries, Rome (Italy).
    30. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N. Kundan, 2015. "Are all movements in food and energy prices transitory? Evidence from India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 92-106.
    31. Fanelli, Luca & Paruolo, Paolo, 2007. "Speed of Adjustment in Cointegrated Systems," MPRA Paper 9174, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Enzo Weber, 2011. "Analyzing U.S. Output and the Great Moderation by Simultaneous Unobserved Components," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1579-1597, December.
    33. Xuan, Chunji & Kim, Chang-Jin & Kim, Dong Heon, 2019. "New dynamics of consumption and output," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 50-59.
    34. Tara M. Sinclair, 2009. "The Relationships between Permanent and Transitory Movements in U.S. Output and the Unemployment Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(2‐3), pages 529-542, March.
    35. KARGI, Bilal, 2014. "Türkiye Ekonomisinde Sürekli Gelir Hipotezine İlişkin Kanıtlar: Zaman Serileri Analizi (2004-2012) [Evidence for Turkey's Economy Permanent Income Hypothesis: Time Series Analysis (2004-2012)]," MPRA Paper 55696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    36. Melolinna, Marko & Tóth, Máté, 2019. "Trend and cycle shocks in Bayesian unobserved components models for UK productivity," Bank of England working papers 826, Bank of England.
    37. Tobias Hartl & Rolf Tschernig & Enzo Weber, 2020. "Fractional trends and cycles in macroeconomic time series," Papers 2005.05266, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.
    38. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components: The impact of labour market reforms in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100499, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    39. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2015. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 2012-42A, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    40. James Morley & Aarti Singh, 2016. "Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 699-728, June.
    41. Han, Yang & Liu, Zehao & Ma, Jun, 2020. "Growth cycles and business cycles of the Chinese economy through the lens of the unobserved components model," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    42. Cynamon Barry Z. & Fazzari Steven M., 2008. "Household Debt in the Consumer Age: Source of Growth--Risk of Collapse," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-32, October.
    43. Gaëtan Stephan & Julien Lecumberry, 2015. "The German unemployment since the Hartz reforms: Permanent or transitory fall?," Post-Print halshs-01238494, HAL.
    44. Cortez, Willy Walter & Islas C., Alejandro, 2013. "An assessment of the dynamics between the permanent and transitory components of Mexico's output and unemployment," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), December.

  36. King, Thomas B. & Morley, James, 2007. "In search of the natural rate of unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 550-564, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  37. Gravelle, Toni & Kichian, Maral & Morley, James, 2006. "Detecting shift-contagion in currency and bond markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 409-423, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  38. Jeremy Piger & James Morley & Chang-Jin Kim, 2005. "Nonlinearity and the permanent effects of recessions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 291-309.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  39. Toni Gravelle & James Morley, 2005. "A Kalman filter approach to characterizing the Canadian term structure of interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 691-705.

    Cited by:

    1. Alex Ilek & Tanya Suchoy & Nir Klein, 2006. "Estimating the premium implicit in the yields of Treasury Bills," Israel Economic Review, Bank of Israel, vol. 4(2), pages 53-83.
    2. Fabrizio Casalin, 2007. "Single Equation Models, Co-Integration and the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Discussion Papers in Economics 07/06, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    3. Arielle Beyaert & Juan Jose Perez-Castejon, 2009. "Markov-switching models, rational expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(3), pages 399-412.
    4. Osmani T. Guillen & Benjamin M. Tabak, 2008. "Characterizing the Brazilian Term Structure of Interest Rates," Working Papers Series 158, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    5. Casalin, Fabrizio, 2013. "Testing the expectations hypothesis of the term structure with permanent-transitory component models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3192-3203.
    6. Kopchak, Seth J., 2013. "The realized forward term premium in the repo market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 253-278.
    7. Michael Gordon, 2003. "Estimates of time-varying term premia for New Zealand and Australia," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/06, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    8. Minoas Koukouritakis, 2010. "Structural breaks and the expectations hypothesis of the term structure: evidence from Central European countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 757-774, January.
    9. Long H. Vo, 2014. "Application of Kalman Filter on modelling interest rates," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(1), pages 1-15, March.
    10. K. Triantafyllopoulos, 2007. "Covariance estimation for multivariate conditionally Gaussian dynamic linear models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(8), pages 551-569.
    11. Date, P. & Canepa, A. & Abdel-Jawad, M., 2011. "A mixed integer linear programming model for optimal sovereign debt issuance," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 749-758, November.
    12. Minoas Koukouritakis & Leo Michelis, 2008. "The term structure of interest rates in the 12 newest EU countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(4), pages 479-490.
    13. Date, Paresh & Wang, Chieh, 2009. "Linear Gaussian affine term structure models with unobservable factors: Calibration and yield forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(1), pages 156-166, May.

  40. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2005. "The Structural Break in the Equity Premium," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 181-191, April.

    Cited by:

    1. Bauwens, Luc & Rombouts, Jeroen V.K., 2012. "On marginal likelihood computation in change-point models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3415-3429.
    2. S Kovács & P Bühlmann & H Li & A Munk, 2023. "Seeded binary segmentation: a general methodology for fast and optimal changepoint detection," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 110(1), pages 249-256.
    3. Wang, Cindy S.H. & Fan, Rui & Xie, Yiqiang, 2023. "Market systemic risk, predictability and macroeconomics news," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    4. Smith, Simon C., 2017. "Equity premium estimates from economic fundamentals under structural breaks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 49-61.
    5. Massimo Guidolin, 2011. "Markov Switching Models in Empirical Finance," Working Papers 415, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    6. He, Zhongfang, 2009. "Forecasting output growth by the yield curve: the role of structural breaks," MPRA Paper 28208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fukuda, Kosei, 2012. "Illustrating extraordinary shocks causing trend breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1045-1052.
    8. Mark J. Jensen & John M. Maheu, 2014. "Risk, Return, and Volatility Feedback: A Bayesian Nonparametric Analysis," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2014-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    9. Theologos Dergiades & Panos K. Pouliasis, 2023. "Should stock returns predictability be ‘hooked on’ long‐horizon regressions?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 718-732, January.
    10. Warusawitharana, Missaka, 2013. "The expected real return to equity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1929-1946.
    11. Huang, MeiChi, 2014. "Bubble-like housing boom–bust cycles: Evidence from the predictive power of households’ expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 2-16.
    12. He, Zhongfang & Maheu, John M., 2010. "Real time detection of structural breaks in GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(11), pages 2628-2640, November.
    13. Chun Liu & John M. Maheu, 2008. "Are There Structural Breaks in Realized Volatility?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 326-360, Summer.
    14. Shin-Yun Wang & Ming-Che Chuang & Shih-Kuei Lin & So-De Shyu, 2021. "Option pricing under stock market cycles with jump risks: evidence from the S&P 500 index," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 25-51, January.
    15. Missaka Warusawitharana, 2011. "The expected real return to equity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
    17. Park, Cheolbeom, 2010. "When does the dividend-price ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 81-101, January.
    18. Yoontae Jeon & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2017. "Time-Varying Window Length for Correlation Forecasts," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-29, December.
    19. Buranavityawut, Nonthipoth & Freeman, Mark C. & Freeman, Nisih, 2006. "Has the equity premium been low for 40 years?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 191-205, August.
    20. Simon C. Smith, 2020. "Equity premium prediction and structural breaks," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 412-429, July.
    21. Nima Nonejad, 2021. "Bayesian model averaging and the conditional volatility process: an application to predicting aggregate equity returns by conditioning on economic variables," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(8), pages 1387-1411, August.
    22. Maheu, John M. & McCurdy, Thomas H., 2009. "How Useful are Historical Data for Forecasting the Long-Run Equity Return Distribution?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27, pages 95-112.
    23. Benjamas Jirasakuldech & Robert Campbell & Riza Emekter, 2009. "Conditional Volatility of Equity Real Estate Investment Trust Returns: A Pre- and Post-1993 Comparison," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(2), pages 137-154, February.
    24. Chatzitzisi, Evanthia & Fountas, Stilianos & Panagiotidis, Theodore, 2021. "Another look at calendar anomalies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 823-840.
    25. MeiChi Huang, 2013. "The Role of People’s Expectation in the Recent US Housing Boom and Bust," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 452-479, April.
    26. Nonejad, Nima, 2021. "Predicting equity premium using dynamic model averaging. Does the state–space representation matter?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    27. Walentin Karl, 2010. "Earnings Inequality and the Equity Premium," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, November.
    28. Elena Andreou & Eric Ghysels, 2007. "Quality Control for Structural Credit Risk Models," University of Cyprus Working Papers in Economics 3-2007, University of Cyprus Department of Economics.
    29. Carlos Carvalho & Jared D. Fisher & Davide Pettenuzzo, 2018. "Optimal Asset Allocation with Multivariate Bayesian Dynamic Linear Models," Working Papers 123, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    30. Baciu (Boanta) Rodica & Brezeanu Petre & Adrian Simon, 2020. "The Influence of Bank Credit on Financial Structure and Financial Return for the Romanian Companies Active in Car Parts Distribution," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(2), pages 1-73, May.
    31. Farooq Malik, 2015. "Revisiting the relationship between risk and return," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 25-40, January.

  41. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C & Nelson, Charles R, 2004. "Is There a Positive Relationship between Stock Market Volatility and the Equity Premium?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 339-360, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  42. James C. Morley & Charles R. Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(2), pages 235-243, May.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  43. Morley, James C., 2002. "A state-space approach to calculating the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 123-127, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2022. "Excess shocks can limit the economic interpretation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    2. Berger, Tino & Richter, Julia & Wong, Benjamin, 2021. "A unified approach for jointly estimating the business and financial cycle, and the role of financial factors," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 415, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    3. Pankaj Kumar & Naveen Srinivasan, 2014. "Unravelling India’s Inflation Puzzle," Working Papers 2014-085, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    4. Robert Dixon & Guay Lim, 2003. "Underlying Inflation in Australia: Are the Existing Measures Satisfactory?," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 878, The University of Melbourne.
    5. Adrian Pagan & Tim Robinson, 2020. "Too many shocks spoil the interpretation," CAMA Working Papers 2020-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Tommaso Proietti, 2009. "The Multistep Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_24, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    7. ODIA NDONGO, Yves Francis, 2007. "Les sources des fluctuations marcoéconomiques au Cameroun," MPRA Paper 1308, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2019. "The impact of liquidity constraints on the cash-futures basis dynamics: Evidence from the Chinese market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 96-110.
    9. Abhiruchi Rathi & Naveen Srinivasan, 2020. "The Unnatural Rate of Unemployment: Reflections on the Barro-Gordon and Natural Rate Paradigms," Working Papers 2020-191, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    10. Gunes Kamber & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2017. "Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson Filter," CAMA Working Papers 2017-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
    12. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "A suggested framework for classifying the modes of cycle research," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 151-159.
    13. Tatsuma Wada & Pierre Perron, 2005. "Trend and Cycles: A New Approach and Explanations of Some Old Puzzles," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 252, Society for Computational Economics.
    14. Tatsuma Wada, 2012. "The Real Exchange Rate And Real Interest Differentials: The Role Of The Trend-Cycle Decomposition," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 50(4), pages 968-987, October.
    15. Katsuyuki Shibayama, 2015. "Trend Dominance in Macroeconomic Fluctuations," Studies in Economics 1518, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    16. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan & Tian, Jing & Norden, Simon van, 2012. "On trend-cycle decomposition and data revision," Research Report 12009-EEF, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    17. Tino Berger & Lorenzo Pozzi, 2023. "Cyclical consumption," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 23-064/VI, Tinbergen Institute.
    18. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    19. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    20. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    21. Sen Guo & Haoran Zhao & Huiru Zhao, 2017. "A New Hybrid Wind Power Forecaster Using the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition Method and a Relevance Vector Machine Optimized by the Ant Lion Optimizer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    22. Tino Berger & James Morley & Benjamin Wong, 2020. "Nowcasting the output gap," CAMA Working Papers 2020-78, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    23. Willie Lahari, 2011. "Assessing Business Cycle Synchronisation - Prospects for a Pacific Islands Currency Union," Working Papers 1110, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2011.
    24. Bhatt, Vipul & Kishor, N. Kundan, 2023. "(In)Stability of the relationship between relative expenditure and prices of durable and non-durable goods," MPRA Paper 117688, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. de Silva, Ashton & Hyndman, Rob J. & Snyder, Ralph, 2009. "A multivariate innovations state space Beveridge-Nelson decomposition," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 1067-1074, September.
    26. Heather M. Anderson & Chin Nam Low & Ralph Snyder, 2005. "Single source of error state space approach to the Beveridge Nelson decomposition," CAMA Working Papers 2005-11, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    27. Cayen, Jean-Philippe & van Norden, Simon, 2004. "The reliability of Canadian output gap estimates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2004,29, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    28. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2015. "The multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition with I(1) and I(2) series," MPRA Paper 66319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    29. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2019. "Bayesian multivariate Beveridge--Nelson decomposition of I(1) and I(2) series with cointegration," MPRA Paper 91979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. de Silva, Ashton, 2008. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using a structural state space model," MPRA Paper 11060, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    32. Carlos Hamilton Vasconcelos Araujo & Osmani Teixeira de Carvalho Guillén, 2008. "Previsão de inflação com incerteza do hiato do produto no Brasil," Anais do XXXVI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 36th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 200807211138520, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    33. Bhar, Ramaprasad & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2004. "Empirical characteristics of the permanent and transitory components of stock return: analysis in a Markov switching heteroscedasticity framework," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 157-165, February.
    34. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2005. "A Comparison of Alternative Asymptotic Frameworks to Analyze a Structural Change in a Linear Time Trend," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-030, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    35. Haoran Zhao & Sen Guo & Huiru Zhao, 2018. "A Multi-Stage Intelligent Model for Electricity Price Prediction Based on the Beveridge–Nelson Disintegration Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-18, May.
    36. Kim, Chang-Jin, 2008. "Markov-switching and the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition: Has US output persistence changed since 1984?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 227-240, October.
    37. N. Kundan Kishor, 2007. "Does Consumption Respond More to Housing Wealth Than to Financial Market Wealth? If So, Why?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(4), pages 427-448, November.
    38. Timo Terasvirta & Andrés González, 2006. "Modelling autoregressive processes with a shifting mean," Borradores de Economia 3230, Banco de la Republica.
    39. Mr. Ebrima A Faal, 2005. "GDP Growth, Potential Output, and Output Gaps in Mexico," IMF Working Papers 2005/093, International Monetary Fund.
    40. Mardi Dungey & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs & Jing Jian & Simon van Norden, 2013. "Trend-Cycle Decomposition: Implications from an Exact Structural Identification," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-23, CIRANO.
    41. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    42. Biolsi, Christopher, 2021. "Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    43. Kum Hwa Oh & Eric Zivot & Drew Creal, 2006. "The Relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition andUnobserved Component Models with Correlated Shocks," Working Papers UWEC-2006-16-FC, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    44. Jongrim Ha & Inhwan So, 2017. "Which Monetary Shocks Matter in Small Open Economies? Evidence from SVARs," Working Papers 2017-2, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    45. Agbeyegbe, Terence D., 2020. "Bayesian analysis of output gap in Barbados," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    46. Han, Liyan & Jin, Jiayu & Wu, Lei & Zeng, Hongchao, 2020. "The volatility linkage between energy and agricultural futures markets with external shocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    47. Huiru Zhao & Haoran Zhao & Sen Guo & Fuqiang Li & Yuou Hu, 2016. "The Impact of Financial Crisis on Electricity Demand: A Case Study of North China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-13, March.
    48. Majid Haghani Rizi & N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2019. "The dynamic relationship among the money market mutual funds, the commercial paper market, and the repo market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 395-414, March.
    49. Dungey, Mardi & Jacobs, Jan & Tian, Jing & van Norden, Simon, 2012. "On the correspondence between data revision and trend-cycle decomposition," Working Papers 12975, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics, revised 01 Mar 2012.
    50. Kim, Jinyong & Kim, Yongsik, 2023. "Which stock price component drives the Amihud illiquidity premium?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    51. Odia Ndongo, Yves Francis, 2006. "Datation du Cycle du PIB Camerounais entre 1960 et 2003," MPRA Paper 552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    52. Morley, James & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2716, European Central Bank.
    53. M. Fatih Ekinci & Gazi Kabas & Enes Sunel, 2013. "End-Point Bias in Trend-Cycle Decompositions : An Application to the Real Exchange Rates of Turkey," Working Papers 1316, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    54. Kim, Jinyong & Kim, Yongsik, 2019. "Transitory prices, resiliency, and the cross-section of stock returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 243-256.
    55. Morley, James & Piger, Jeremy, 2008. "Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 220-226, October.
    56. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
    57. Oh, Kum Hwa & Zivot, Eric & Creal, Drew, 2008. "The relationship between the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions that are popular in economics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 207-219, October.
    58. Ekinci, Mehmet Fatih, 2019. "Intuitive and Reliable Estimates of Output Gap and Real Exchange Rate Cycles for Turkey," MPRA Paper 94698, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    59. N. K. Kishor & H. A. Marfatia, 2013. "Does federal funds futures rate contain information about the treasury bill rate?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(16), pages 1311-1324, August.
    60. N. Kundan Kishor & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2017. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Housing Prices and the Macroeconomy: Evidence from OECD Countries," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 237-268, February.
    61. Joseph H. Haslag & Xue Li, 2015. "Money, Interest Rates and Output Revisited," Working Papers 1507, Department of Economics, University of Missouri.

  44. Kim, Chang-Jin & Morley, James C. & Nelson, Charles R., 2001. "Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 403-426, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Chapters

  1. Günes Kamber & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Morley, 2020. "What drives inflation in advanced and emerging market economies?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Inflation dynamics in Asia and the Pacific, volume 111, pages 21-36, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Monique B. Reid & Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "How Firms and Experts View The Phillips Curve: Evidence from Individual and Aggregate Data from South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 3355-3376, September.
    2. Dizioli, Allan & Wang, Hou, 2024. "How do adaptive learning expectations rationalize stronger monetary policy response in Brazil?," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 5(1).
    3. Wang, Xi & Liu, Ying & Chen, Zhongfei, 2022. "Monetary policy dysregulation with data distortion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

  2. Luke Hartigan & James Morley, 2018. "A Factor Model Analysis of the Effects on Inflation Targeting on the Australian Economy," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: John Simon & Maxwell Sutton (ed.),Central Bank Frameworks: Evolution or Revolution?, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Beckers, 2020. "Credit Spreads, Monetary Policy and the Price Puzzle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2020-01, Reserve Bank of Australia.

  3. James Morley & Jeremy Piger, 2006. "The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, pages 75-95, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    See citations under working paper version above.
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