[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v55y2023i29p3329-3346.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic effects of financial development on economic activity

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Duarte
  • João Sousa Andrade
  • Pedro Bação
Abstract
In this article, we provide evidence of the dynamic effects of financial development on a group of key macroeconomic variables, namely, output, consumption, investment, inflation, money, the interest rate and the exchange rate. As the measure of financial development we use a new broad measure of financial development instead of the narrow measures usually employed in the related literature. Another novelty is that we estimate the dynamic effects of financial development on economic activity in the context of a panel vector autoregressive model, comprising 36 countries observed in the period 1983–2019. Our results suggest that financial development has a positive impact on output, investment, and consumption. The results reported in this article also support the proposition that the benefits from financial development are larger in economies where the financial system is market-based. These results survive a battery of robustness checks.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Duarte & João Sousa Andrade & Pedro Bação, 2023. "Dynamic effects of financial development on economic activity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(29), pages 3329-3346, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:55:y:2023:i:29:p:3329-3346
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2022.2114994
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2022.2114994
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2022.2114994?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni, 2017. "Credit Crises, Precautionary Savings, and the Liquidity Trap," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(3), pages 1427-1467.
    2. Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2000. "Financial markets and the allocation of capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 187-214.
    3. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross, 2004. "Stock markets, banks, and growth: Panel evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 423-442, March.
    4. Levine, Ross & Zervos, Sara, 1998. "Stock Markets, Banks, and Economic Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 537-558, June.
    5. Filippo di Mauro & L. Vanessa Smith & Stephane Dees & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "Exploring the international linkages of the euro area: a global VAR analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 1-38.
    6. Iftekhar Hasan & Roman Horvath & Jan Mares, 2018. "What Type of Finance Matters for Growth? Bayesian Model Averaging Evidence," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(2), pages 383-409.
    7. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-586, June.
    8. Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Erik Feyen & Ross Levine, 2013. "The Evolving Importance of Banks and Securities Markets," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 27(3), pages 476-490.
    9. Michiel Bijlsma & Clemens Kool & Marielle Non, 2018. "The effect of financial development on economic growth: a meta-analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(57), pages 6128-6148, December.
    10. Matteo Maggiori, 2017. "Financial Intermediation, International Risk Sharing, and Reserve Currencies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3038-3071, October.
    11. Michael R. M. Abrigo & Inessa Love, 2016. "Estimation of panel vector autoregression in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 16(3), pages 778-804, September.
    12. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M Taylor, 2011. "Financial Crises, Credit Booms, and External Imbalances: 140 Years of Lessons," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 340-378, June.
    13. Sam Langfield & Marco Pagano, 2016. "Bank bias in Europe: effects on systemic risk and growth," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 51-106.
    14. Vasco M. Carvalho & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2012. "Understanding Bubbly Episodes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 95-100, May.
    15. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, April.
    16. Rajan, Raghuram & Zingales, Luigi, 2003. "Banks and Markets: the Changing Character of European Finance," CEPR Discussion Papers 3865, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Petra Valickova & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2015. "Financial Development And Economic Growth: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 506-526, July.
    18. Luintel, Kul B. & Khan, Mosahid, 1999. "A quantitative reassessment of the finance-growth nexus: evidence from a multivariate VAR," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 381-405, December.
    19. Levine, Ross, 2002. "Bank-Based or Market-Based Financial Systems: Which Is Better?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 398-428, October.
    20. Rousseau, P. L. & Wachtel, P., 2000. "Equity markets and growth: Cross-country evidence on timing and outcomes, 1980-1995," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(12), pages 1933-1957, December.
    21. Rousseau, Peter L & Wachtel, Paul, 1998. "Financial Intermediation and Economic Performance: Historical Evidence from Five Industrialized Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 30(4), pages 657-678, November.
    22. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 16-41, February.
    23. Robert G. King & Ross Levine, 1993. "Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 717-737.
    24. Calderon, Cesar & Liu, Lin, 2003. "The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 321-334, October.
    25. Greenwood, Jeremy & Jovanovic, Boyan, 1990. "Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 1076-1107, October.
    26. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Rancière, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. "Exchange rate volatility and productivity growth: The role of financial development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 494-513, May.
    27. Pesaran M.H. & Schuermann T. & Weiner S.M., 2004. "Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 129-162, April.
    28. Philip Arestis & Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis, 2015. "The Financial Development And Growth Nexus: A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 549-565, July.
    29. Nicola Fuchs-Schündeln & Norbert Funke, 2004. "Stock market liberalizations: Financial and macroeconomic implications," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(3), pages 730-761, September.
    30. Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Maksimovic, Vojislav, 2002. "Funding growth in bank-based and market-based financial systems: evidence from firm-level data," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(3), pages 337-363, September.
    31. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lu, Biao, 2001. "Consistent model and moment selection procedures for GMM estimation with application to dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 123-164, March.
    32. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2000. "A New Database on the Structure and Development of the Financial Sector," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(3), pages 597-605, September.
    33. Leonardo Gambacorta & Jing Yang & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "Financial structure and growth," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    34. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    35. Chaney, Thomas, 2016. "Liquidity constrained exporters," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 141-154.
    36. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1988. "On the mechanics of economic development," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-42, July.
    37. William W. Chow & Michael K. Fung, 2013. "Financial development and growth: A clustering and causality analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 430-453, April.
    38. Desbordes, Rodolphe & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2017. "The effects of financial development on foreign direct investment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 153-168.
    39. Chan, Jackie M.L. & Manova, Kalina, 2015. "Financial development and the choice of trade partners," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 122-145.
    40. Michael D. Bordo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2015. "Growing Up to Stability? Financial Globalization, Financial Development and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 21287, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    42. Bruce D. Smith & John H. Boyd, 1998. "The evolution of debt and equity markets in economic development," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 12(3), pages 519-560.
    43. Benhabib, Jess & Spiegel, Mark M, 2000. "The Role of Financial Development in Growth and Investment," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 341-360, December.
    44. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2004. "Financial development and economic growth: evidence from panel unit root and cointegration tests," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 55-74, February.
    45. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5g3sadr9h8gbri8hrtq0h6au2 is not listed on IDEAS
    46. Thorsten Beck & Asli Demirgüç-Kunt & Ross Levine, 2010. "Financial Institutions and Markets across Countries and over Time: The Updated Financial Development and Structure Database," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 24(1), pages 77-92, January.
    47. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
    48. Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, 2016. "Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 2016/005, International Monetary Fund.
    49. Nickell, Stephen J, 1981. "Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1417-1426, November.
    50. Nicholas Apergis & Ioannis Filippidis & Claire Economidou, 2007. "Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Linkages: A Panel Data Analysis," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(1), pages 179-198, April.
    51. Robert C. Merton, 1992. "Financial Innovation And Economic Performance," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 4(4), pages 12-22, January.
    52. Mohammed Ziaur Rehman & Nasir Ali & Najeeb Muhammad Nasir, 2015. "Financial Development, Savings and Economic Growth: Evidence from Bahrain Using VAR," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(2), pages 112-123, April.
    53. Xu, Zhenhui, 2000. "Financial Development, Investment, and Economic Growth," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(2), pages 331-344, April.
    54. Luigi Zingales, 2015. "Presidential Address: Does Finance Benefit Society?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1327-1363, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Marc Steffen Rapp & Iuliia A. Udoieva, 2018. "What matters in the finance–growth nexus of advanced economies? Evidence from OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(6), pages 676-690, February.
    2. Popov, Alexander, 2017. "Evidence on finance and economic growth," Working Paper Series 2115, European Central Bank.
    3. James B. Ang, 2008. "A Survey Of Recent Developments In The Literature Of Finance And Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 536-576, July.
    4. Rosa Capolupo, 2018. "Finance, Investment and Growth: Evidence for Italy," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 47(1), pages 145-186, February.
    5. Levine, Ross, 2005. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 12, pages 865-934, Elsevier.
    6. Peia, Oana & Roszbach, Kasper, 2015. "Finance and growth: Time series evidence on causality," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 105-118.
    7. Salifou Ouedraogo & Hamidou Sawadogo, 2022. "Financial development, financial structure and economic growth in the Sub‐Saharan African countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3139-3162, July.
    8. Muhammad Shahbaz & Ijaz Ur Rehman & Ahmed Taneem Muzaffar, 2015. "Re-Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 452-471, September.
    9. Laurent Cavenaile & Christian Gengenbach & Franz Palm, 2014. "Stock Markets, Banks and Long Run Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration-Based Analysis," De Economist, Springer, vol. 162(1), pages 19-40, March.
    10. Alessio Ciarlone, 2019. "The relationship between financial development and growth: the case of emerging Europe," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 521, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Thorsten Beck, 2009. "The Econometrics of Finance and Growth," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Terence C. Mills & Kerry Patterson (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, chapter 25, pages 1180-1209, Palgrave Macmillan.
    12. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-485 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Morganti, Patrizio & Garofalo, Giuseppe, 2019. "Reassessing the law, finance, and growth nexus after the recent Great recession," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 229-250.
    14. Zhang, Jin & Wang, Lanfang & Wang, Susheng, 2012. "Financial development and economic growth: Recent evidence from China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 393-412.
    15. Wahidin, Deni & Akimov, Alexandr & Roca, Eduardo, 2021. "The impact of bond market development on economic growth before and after the global financial crisis: Evidence from developed and developing countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Alberto Bucci & Simone Marsiglio, 2019. "Financial development and economic growth: long‐run equilibrium and transitional dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(3), pages 331-359, July.
    17. Cheng, Su-Yin, 2012. "Substitution or complementary effects between banking and stock markets: Evidence from financial openness in Taiwan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 508-520.
    18. Trunin, Pavel (Трунин, Павел), 2015. "Analysis of the Level of Development of the Financial System in the Russian Federation [Анализ Уровня Развития Финансовой Системы В Российской Федерации]," Published Papers mn38, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    19. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    20. Michiel Bijlsma & Andrei Dubovik, 2014. "Banks, Financial Markets and Growth in Developed Countries: a Survey of the empirical literature," CPB Discussion Paper 266, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    21. Georgios Chortareas & Georgios Magkonis & Demetrios Moschos & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2015. "Financial Development and Economic Activity in Advanced and Developing Open Economies: Evidence from Panel Cointegration," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 163-177, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:55:y:2023:i:29:p:3329-3346. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.