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A multi‐country dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility for euro area business cycle analysis

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  • Florian Huber
  • Michael Pfarrhofer
  • Philipp Piribauer
Abstract
This paper develops a dynamic factor model that uses euro area country‐specific information on output and inflation to estimate an area‐wide measure of the output gap. Our model assumes that output and inflation can be decomposed into country‐specific stochastic trends and a common cyclical component. Comovement in the trends is introduced by imposing a factor structure on the shocks to the latent states. We moreover introduce flexible stochastic volatility specifications to control for heteroscedasticity in the measurement errors and innovations to the latent states. Carefully specified shrinkage priors allow for pushing the model towards a homoscedastic specification, if supported by the data. Our measure of the output gap closely tracks other commonly adopted measures, with small differences in magnitudes and timing. To assess whether the model‐based output gap helps in forecasting inflation, we perform an out‐of‐sample forecasting exercise. The findings indicate that our approach yields superior inflation forecasts, both in terms of point and density predictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Florian Huber & Michael Pfarrhofer & Philipp Piribauer, 2020. "A multi‐country dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility for euro area business cycle analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(6), pages 911-926, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:39:y:2020:i:6:p:911-926
    DOI: 10.1002/for.2667
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kai Carstensen & Felix Kießner & Thies Rossian, 2023. "Estimation of the TFP Gap for the Largest Five EMU Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 10245, CESifo.
    3. Nataliia Ostapenko, 2022. "Do output gap estimates improve inflation forecasts in Slovakia?," Working and Discussion Papers WP 4/2022, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    4. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2023. "Global and local components of output gaps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2301-2331, November.
    5. Wu, Ping, 2024. "Should I open to forecast? Implications from a multi-country unobserved components model with sparse factor stochastic volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 903-917.

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