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Investigating the quitting decision of nurses: panel data evidence from the british national health service

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  • Paul Frijters
  • Michael A. Shields
  • Stephen Wheatley Price
Abstract
In this paper, we provide a detailed investigation into the quitting behaviour of nurses in the British National Health Service (NHS), using a recently constructed longitudinal survey. We fit both single and competing risks duration models that enable us to establish the characteristics of those nurses who leave the public sector, distinguish the importance of pay in this decision and document the destinations that nurses move to. Contrary to expectations, we find that the hourly wage received by nurses outside of the NHS is around 20% lower than in the NHS, and that hours of work are about the same. However, while the effect of wages is found to be statistically significant, the predicted impact of an increase in nurses' pay on retention rates is small. The current nurse retention problem in the NHS is therefore unlikely to be eliminated through substantially increased pay. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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  • Paul Frijters & Michael A. Shields & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2007. "Investigating the quitting decision of nurses: panel data evidence from the british national health service," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(1), pages 57-73, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:16:y:2007:i:1:p:57-73
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.1144
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    1. Askildsen, Jan Erik & Baltagi, Badi H. & Holmås, Tor Helge, 2002. "Will Increased Wages Reduce Shortage of Nurses? A Panel Data Analysis of Nurses’ Labour Supply," Working Papers in Economics 21/02, University of Bergen, Department of Economics.
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    13. Shields, Michael A. & Ward, Melanie, 2001. "Improving nurse retention in the National Health Service in England: the impact of job satisfaction on intentions to quit," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 677-701, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kroczek, Martin & Koch, Andreas, 2024. "The reaction of wages to skill shortage in nursing," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302406, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Carol Propper & John Van Reenen, 2010. "Can Pay Regulation Kill? Panel Data Evidence on the Effect of Labor Markets on Hospital Performance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(2), pages 222-273, April.
    3. Martin Kroczek, 2021. "Analyzing Nurses‘ Decisions to Leave Their Profession – a Duration Analysis," IAW Discussion Papers 136, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
    4. Divine Ikenwilo & Anthony Scott, 2007. "The effects of pay and job satisfaction on the labour supply of hospital consultants," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(12), pages 1303-1318.
    5. Serra-Sastre, Victoria, 2024. "Workplace violence and intention to quit in the English NHS," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121623, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Budría, Santiago, 2012. "The shadow value of employer-provided training," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 494-514.
    7. Paul Frijters & Michael A. Shields & Stephen Wheatley Price, 2004. "To Teach or not to Teach? Panel Data Evidence on the Quitting Decision," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 916, The University of Melbourne.
    8. Martin Kroczek & Philipp Kugler & Anne Zühlke, 2022. "Erwerbsverläufe und Einkommensentwicklung in der Pflege," IAW Discussion Papers 137, Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW).
    9. Kenneth Snellman, 2007. "The determinants of nurses’ transitions into and out of health care," Working Papers 228, Työn ja talouden tutkimus LABORE, The Labour Institute for Economic Research LABORE.
    10. Yaa Akosa Antwi & John R. Bowblis, 2018. "The Impact of Nurse Turnover on Quality of Care and Mortality in Nursing Homes: Evidence from the Great Recession," American Journal of Health Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 131-163, Spring.
    11. Denise Doiron & Hong Il Yoo, 2020. "Stated preferences over job characteristics: A panel study," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(1), pages 43-82, February.
    12. Claude Montmarquette & Laure Thomas, 2005. "La pénurie de travailleurs qualifiés," CIRANO Project Reports 2005rp-03, CIRANO.
    13. Serra-Sastre, Victoria, 2024. "Workplace violence and intention to quit in the English NHS," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 340(C).
    14. Michelle Cunich & Stephen Whelan, 2010. "Nurse Education and the Retention of Registered Nurses in New South Wales," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(274), pages 396-413, September.
    15. Daniels, Frieda & Laporte, Audrey & Lemieux-Charles, Louise & Baumann, Andrea & Onate, Kanecy & Deber, Raisa, 2012. "Retaining nurses: The impact of Ontario's “70% Full-Time Commitment”," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 107(1), pages 54-65.
    16. Simon Condliffe & Charles R. Link & Sezin Zengin Farias Martinez, 2020. "Factors Affecting The Labor Supply Decisions Of Registered Nurses," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(1), pages 127-138, January.
    17. Divine Ikenwilo & Anthony Scott, 2007. "The effects of pay and job satisfaction on the labour supply of hospital consultants," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(12), pages 1303-1318, December.
    18. Denise Doiron & Glenn Jones, 2006. "Nurses' Retention and Hospital Characteristics in New South Wales," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 82(256), pages 11-29, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J45 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Particular Labor Markets - - - Public Sector Labor Markets
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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