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Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?

Author

Listed:
  • José Dorich
  • Nicholas Labelle St‐Pierre
  • Vadym Lepetyuk
  • Rhys R. Mendes
Abstract
Recent international experience with the effective lower bound on nominal interest rates has rekindled interest in the benefits of inflation targets above 2%. We evaluate whether an increase in the inflation target to 3% or 4% could improve macroeconomic stability in the Canadian economy. We find that the magnitude of the benefits hinges critically on two elements: (i) the availability and effectiveness of unconventional monetary policy (UMP) tools at the effective lower bound and (ii) the level of the real neutral interest rate. In particular, we show that when the real neutral rate is in line with the central tendency of estimates, raising the inflation target yields some improvement in macroeconomic outcomes. There are only modest gains if effective UMP tools are available. In contrast, with a deeply negative real neutral rate, a higher inflation target substantially improves macroeconomic stability regardless of UMP. Le phénomène d’atteinte de la valeur plancher des taux d’intérêt nominaux observée dans de nombreux pays ces dernières années a renouvelé l’intérêt porté aux avantages des cibles d’inflation supérieures à 2 %. Nous cherchons à savoir dans quelle mesure l’économie canadienne gagnerait en stabilité macroéconomique si la cible d’inflation était portée à 3 % ou à 4 %. L’ampleur des avantages dépendrait fondamentalement de deux éléments : (a) la possibilité de recourir à des instruments de politique monétaire non traditionnels et l’efficacité de ces instruments en contexte d’atteinte de la valeur plancher des taux nominaux et (b) le taux d’intérêt neutre réel. En particulier, nous montrons que lorsque le taux d’intérêt neutre est de l’ordre de la tendance centrale des estimations, le relèvement de la cible d’inflation s’accompagne d’effets bénéfiques sur le plan macroéconomique. L’amélioration est cependant modeste quand des instruments de politique monétaire non traditionnels efficaces sont mis en œ uvre. En cas de taux d’intérêt neutre réel fortement négatif, par contre, le relèvement de la cible contribue grandement à la stabilité macroéconomique, indépendamment des mesures non traditionnelles de politique monétaire mises en place.

Suggested Citation

  • José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St‐Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:canjec:v:51:y:2018:i:3:p:1029-1055
    DOI: 10.1111/caje.12343
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    3. Ernest Gnan & Claudia Kwapil & Maria Teresa Valderrama, 2018. "Monetary policy after the crisis: mandates, targets, and international linkages," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q2/18, pages 8-33.
    4. Lepetyuk, Vadym & Maliar, Lilia & Maliar, Serguei, 2020. "When the U.S. catches a cold, Canada sneezes: A lower-bound tale told by deep learning," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
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    6. E. Sinelnikova-Muryleva V. & A. Grebenkina M. & Е. Синельникова-Мурылева В. & А. Гребенкина М., 2019. "Оптимальная инфляция и инфляционное таргетирование: страновой опыт // Optimal Inflation and Inflation Targeting: International Experience," Финансы: теория и практика/Finance: Theory and Practice // Finance: Theory and Practice, ФГОБУВО Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 23(1), pages 49-65.
    7. Ha,Jongrim & Ivanova,Anna & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Unsal Portillo Ocando,Derya Filiz, 2019. "Inflation : Concepts, Evolution, and Correlates," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8738, The World Bank.
    8. Dante B Canlas & Johnny Noe E Ravalo & Eli M Remolona, 2018. "Do small bank deposits run more than large ones? Three event studies of contagion and financial inclusion," BIS Working Papers 724, Bank for International Settlements.
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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