[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/b/bis/bisbps/65.html
   My bibliography  Save this book

Threat of fiscal dominance?

Author

Listed:
  • Bank for International Settlements
Abstract
The massive expansion of central bank balance sheets to contain the worst financial crisis in living memory raises questions about the theory and practice of monetary policy. The persistence in many advanced countries of large fiscal deficits and the prospect of high public debt/GDP ratios for many years is likely, at some point, to create policy dilemmas not only for central banks but also for public debt managers. Some countries have already had to cope with higher sovereign risk. Worries about both "fiscal dominance" and "financial repression" have certainly gained ground. Whatever view is taken of this, the boundary between monetary policy and government debt management has become increasingly blurred. Policy interactions have changed in ways that are difficult to understand. The current delineation of policy mandates may need to be reassessed. The aim of this BIS-OECD workshop was to better understand these issues. Theoretical perspectives draw on a long and rich body of monetary theory, but the theory is far from settled. Analysis of the history of fiscal/debt/monetary policy interconnections shows how such linkages have varied across countries and over time - there is no "one size fits all". And careful review of empirical studies shows that precise estimates of the impact of large-scale central bank purchases of government bonds need to be treated with caution. There is great uncertainty about the impact of increased government debt on inflation, on interest rates and on future growth. Much will depend on future policies. Do monetary policies need to be better coordinated with other macroeconomic or financial policies? Could government financing decisions and financial sector regulation drive the long-term interest rate too low, at least in the short-term? What medium-term risks could this create? What could be the implications for the efficiency and stability of the financial system? The papers and discussions in this volume do not, of course, converge on simple answers to any of these questions. Indeed, opposite views are expressed. The aim rather is to stimulate discussion about the complex interactions between fiscal deficits, government debt management and monetary policy in unusual macroeconomic circumstances. Some of these interactions are new, but many would be very familiar to an earlier generation of central bankers faced with heavy government debts and thin financial markets.

Individual chapters are listed in the "Chapters" tab

Suggested Citation

  • Bank for International Settlements, 2012. "Threat of fiscal dominance?," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 65.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisbps:65
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap65.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap65.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harald Hau & Massimo Massa & Joel Peress, 2010. "Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(4), pages 1681-1717, April.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart & Brian P. Sack, 2004. "Monetary Policy Alternatives at the Zero Bound: An Empirical Assessment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(2), pages 1-100.
    3. Nicola Anderson & John Sleath, 2001. "New estimates of the UK real and nominal yield curves," Bank of England working papers 126, Bank of England.
    4. Afonso, António & Martins, Manuel M.F., 2012. "Level, slope, curvature of the sovereign yield curve, and fiscal behaviour," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1789-1807.
    5. Farooq Ahmad & James Steeley, 2008. "Secondary market pricing behaviour around UK bond auctions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(9), pages 691-699.
    6. Joyce, Michael & Lasaosa, Ana & Stevens , Ibrahim & Tong, Matthew, 2010. "The financial market impact of quantitative easing," Bank of England working papers 393, Bank of England.
    7. Eric T. Swanson, 2011. "Let's Twist Again: A High-Frequency Event-study Analysis of Operation Twist and Its Implications for QE2," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 151-207.
    8. Joseph E. Gagnon & Matthew Raskin & Julie Remache & Brian P. Sack, 2011. "Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 17(May), pages 41-59.
    9. Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "What does Monetary Policy do to Long‐term Interest Rates at the Zero Lower Bound?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 447-466, November.
    10. Mr. Andre Meier, 2009. "Panacea, Curse, or Nonevent? Unconventional Monetary Policy in the United Kingdom," IMF Working Papers 2009/163, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Unconventional monetary policy had large international effects," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 101-111.
    12. Hancock, Diana & Passmore, Wayne, 2011. "Did the Federal Reserve's MBS purchase program lower mortgage rates?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 498-514.
    13. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Borag[caron]an Aruoba, S., 2006. "The macroeconomy and the yield curve: a dynamic latent factor approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 309-338.
    14. Hiroshi Ugai, 2007. "Effects of the Quantitative Easing Policy: A Survey of Empirical Analyses," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(1), pages 1-48, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dufrénot, Gilles & Jawadi, Fredj & Khayat, Guillaume A., 2018. "A model of fiscal dominance under the “Reinhart Conjecture”," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 332-345.
    2. Kashif Abbass & Abdul Aziz Khan Niazi & Abdul Basit & Tehmina Fiaz Qazi & Huaming Song & Halima Begum, 2021. "Uncovering Effects of Hot Potatoes in Banking System: Arresting Die-Hard Issues," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(4), pages 21582440211, December.
    3. van Riet Ad, 2019. "Twenty Years of European Central Bank Monetary Policy: A Keynesian and Austrian Perspective," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 239(5-6), pages 797-840, October.
    4. Wieladek, Tomasz & Haldane, Andrew & Roberts-Sklar, Matt & Young, Chris, 2016. "QE: the story so far," CEPR Discussion Papers 11691, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Lena Boneva & David Elliott & Iryna Kaminska & Oliver Linton & Nick McLaren & Ben Morley, 2022. "The Impact of Corporate QE on Liquidity: Evidence from the UK," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(648), pages 2615-2643.
    6. Philip Turner, 2014. "The exit from non-conventional monetary policy: what challenges?," BIS Working Papers 448, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Olmos, Lorena & Sanso Frago, Marcos, 2014. "Natural Rate of Interest with Endogenous Growth, Financial Frictions and Trend Inflation," MPRA Paper 57212, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Wolswijk, Guido, 2020. "Drivers of European public debt management," Working Paper Series 2437, European Central Bank.
    9. Mr. S. M. Ali Abbas & Laura Blattner & Mark De Broeck & Ms. Asmaa A ElGanainy & Malin Hu, 2014. "Sovereign Debt Composition in Advanced Economies: A Historical Perspective," IMF Working Papers 2014/162, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Allen, Bill & Chan, Ka Kei & Milne, Alistair & Thomas, Steve, 2012. "Basel III: Is the cure worse than the disease?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 159-166.
    11. Beetsma, Roel & Giuliodori, Massimo & Hanson, Jesper & de Jong, Frank, 2021. "The maturity of sovereign debt issuance in the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    12. Jagjit S Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The interest rate effects of government debt maturity," BIS Working Papers 415, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Norkina, O. & Pekarski, S., 2015. "Nonmarket Debt Placement As Financial Repression," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 28(4), pages 31-55.
    14. van Riet, Ad, 2018. "Modern financial repression in the euro area crisis: making high public debt sustainable?," MPRA Paper 92649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Júlia Brunet & Susana Párraga, 2021. "Fiscal rebalancing plans in the medium term: the case of the United Kingdom," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue 2/2021.
    16. Olga A. Norkina & Sergey E. Pekarski, 2014. "Optimal Financial Repression," HSE Working papers WP BRP 81/EC/2014, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francis Breedon & Jagjit S. Chadha & Alex Waters, 2012. "The financial market impact of UK quantitative easing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 702-728, WINTER.
    2. Francis Breedon & Jagjit S. Chadha & Alex Waters, 2012. "The financial market impact of UK quantitative easing," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 702-728, WINTER.
    3. Claudio Borio & Anna Zabai, 2018. "Unconventional monetary policies: a re-appraisal," Chapters, in: Peter Conti-Brown & Rosa M. Lastra (ed.), Research Handbook on Central Banking, chapter 20, pages 398-444, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann & Gert Peersman, 2014. "The Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Cross‐Country Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 615-642, June.
    5. Hess Chung & Jean‐Philippe Laforte & David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2012. "Have We Underestimated the Likelihood and Severity of Zero Lower Bound Events?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(s1), pages 47-82, February.
    6. Qianying Chen & Andrew Filardo & Dong He & Feng Zhu, 2012. "International spillovers of central bank balance sheet policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Are central bank balance sheets in Asia too large?, volume 66, pages 220-264, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Gert Peersman, 2012. "Effectiveness of Unconventional Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," 2012 Meeting Papers 400, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Chadha, Jagjit S. & Waters, Alex, 2014. "Applying a macro-finance yield curve to UK quantitative Easing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 68-86.
    9. Siami-Namini, Sima & Hudson, Darren & Trindade, A. Alexandre & Lyford, Conrad, 2018. "Commodity Prices, Monetary Policy and the Taylor Rule," 2018 Annual Meeting, February 2-6, 2018, Jacksonville, Florida 266719, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    10. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "Evidence on the portfolio balance channel of quantitative easing," Working Papers 2012-015, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Kotaro Ishi & Mr. Kenji Fujita & Mr. Mark R. Stone, 2011. "Should Unconventional Balance Sheet Policies Be Added to the Central Bank toolkit? a Review of the Experience so Far," IMF Working Papers 2011/145, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Saroj Bhattarai & Christopher J. Neely, 2022. "An Analysis of the Literature on International Unconventional Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 60(2), pages 527-597, June.
    13. Fratzscher, Marcel & Straub, Roland & Lo Duca, Marco, 2012. "A global monetary tsunami? On the spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," CEPR Discussion Papers 9195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Saghaian, Sayed & Reed, Michael, 2015. "Spillover Effects Of U.S. Federal Reserve’S Recent Quantitative Easing On Canadian Commodity Prices," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3(1), pages 1-33, January.
    15. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2012. "Quantitative easing: a sceptical survey," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 28(4), pages 750-764, WINTER.
    16. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Identification and Inference Using Event Studies," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 48-65, September.
    17. George Kapetanios & Haroon Mumtaz & Ibrahim Stevens & Konstantinos Theodoridis, 2012. "Assessing the Economy‐wide Effects of Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages 316-347, November.
    18. Robert Jarrow & Hao Li, 2014. "The impact of quantitative easing on the US term structure of interest rates," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 287-321, October.
    19. Carlo Rosa, 2012. "How "unconventional" are large-scale asset purchases? The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Staff Reports 560, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    20. Marcel Fratzscher & Marco Lo Duca & Roland Straub, 2018. "On the International Spillovers of US Quantitative Easing," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(608), pages 330-377, February.

    Book Chapters

    The following chapters of this book are listed in IDEAS

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:bisbps:65. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.