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Disaggregate Energy Consumption Versus Economic Growth in Tunisia: Cointegration and Structural Break Analysis

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  • Mehdi Abid
  • Rafaa Mraihi
Abstract
This study investigates the causality between energy consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) in Tunisia for the period 1980–2012. The main contribution of the paper is to investigate empirically the relation of economic growth and energy consumption at both the aggregated and disaggregated levels regarding oil, natural gas, and electricity. We applied the unit root test and the cointegration approach in the presence of structural breaks. Using a vector error correction model specification, our results confirmed the existence of cointegration between the series (except for the case of electricity). The short-run dynamics of the interested variables are tested, indicating that there exists Granger causality running from oil consumption to GDP, but no Granger causality exists running in any direction between gas and GDP and between aggregate energy consumption and GDP. In the long run, our results imply that disaggregated energy consumption causes GDP and that there is a bidirectional causal relationship between aggregated energy consumption and GDP. On the other hand, GDP causes electricity consumption, using a VAR specification. Consequently, policy makers in Tunisia should give priority to the reconstruction of infrastructure development of the aggregated and disaggregated energy consumption as this would force the sustainable economic growth in Tunisia. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

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  • Mehdi Abid & Rafaa Mraihi, 2015. "Disaggregate Energy Consumption Versus Economic Growth in Tunisia: Cointegration and Structural Break Analysis," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 6(4), pages 1104-1122, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jknowl:v:6:y:2015:i:4:p:1104-1122
    DOI: 10.1007/s13132-014-0189-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nadeem, Sana & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Sectoral Analysis," MPRA Paper 74569, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Muhammad Shahbaz & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, 2016. "Revisiting the Electricity Consumption-Economic Growth Nexus in Angola: The Role of Exports, Imports and Urbanization," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 501-512.
    3. Kashif Munir & Sana Nadeem, 2022. "Disaggregate Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Sectoral Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(1), pages 296-306.
    4. Mehdi Abid, 2016. "Energy Consumption-Informal Economic Growth Analysis: What Policy Options Do We Have?," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 7(1), pages 207-218, March.
    5. Mounir Ben Mbarek & Kais Saidi & Rochdi Feki, 2018. "How Effective Are Renewable Energy in Addition of Economic Growth and Curbing CO2 Emissions in the Long Run? A Panel Data Analysis for Four Mediterranean Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 9(3), pages 754-766, September.
    6. Sebastian Majewski & Urszula Mentel & Raufhon Salahodjaev & Marek Cierpiał-Wolan, 2022. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-10, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy consumption–growth nexus; Johansen et al. cointegration; Structural breaks; Tunisia; Vector error correction; C01; C32; Q43;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C01 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Econometrics
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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