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Good enough for government work? Macroeconomics since the crisis

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  • Paul Krugman
Abstract
This paper argues that when the financial crisis came policy-makers relied on some version of the Hicksian sticky-price IS-LM as their default model; these models were ‘good enough for government work’. While there have been many incremental changes suggested to the DSGE model, there has been no single ‘big new idea’ because the even simpler IS-LM type models were what worked well. In particular, the policy responses based on IS-LM were appropriate. Specifically, these models generated the insights that large budget deficits would not drive up interest rates and, while the economy remained at the zero lower bound, that very large increases in monetary base wouldn’t be inflationary, and that the multiplier on government spending was greater than 1. The one big exception to this satisfactory understanding was in price behaviour. A large output gap was expected to lead to a large fall in inflation, but did not. If new research is necessary, it is on pricing behaviour. While there was a failure to forecast the crisis, it did not come down to a lack of understanding of possible mechanisms, or of a lack of data, but rather through a lack of attention to the right data.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Krugman, 2018. "Good enough for government work? Macroeconomics since the crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 34(1-2), pages 156-168.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:34:y:2018:i:1-2:p:156-168.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/grx052
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Eugenio Caverzasi & Alberto Russo, 2018. "Toward a new microfounded macroeconomics in the wake of the crisis," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 27(6), pages 999-1014.
    2. Jochen O. Mierau & Mark Mink, 2018. "A Descriptive Model of Banking and Aggregate Demand," De Economist, Springer, vol. 166(2), pages 207-237, June.
    3. Emre Örün, 2020. "Theoritical Seekings in Macroeconomics," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 70(2), pages 451-477, December.
    4. Andrew, Jane & Baker, Max & Cooper, Christine & Tweedie, Jonathan, 2024. "Wealth taxes and the post-COVID future of the state," CRITICAL PERSPECTIVES ON ACCOUNTING, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    5. Canelli, Rosa & Fontana, Giuseppe & Realfonzo, Riccardo & Passarella, Marco Veronese, 2024. "Energy crisis, economic growth and public finance in Italy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    6. Francisco Louçã & Alexandre Abreu & Gonçalo Pessa Costa, 2021. "Disarray at the headquarters: Economists and Central bankers tested by the subprime and the COVID recessions [Forward guidance without common knowledge]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 30(2), pages 273-296.
    7. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Gulan, Adam, 2018. "Paradise lost? A brief history of DSGE macroeconomics," Research Discussion Papers 22/2018, Bank of Finland.
    9. Massimiliano Mazzanti & Matteo Mazzarano & Andrea Pronti & Marco Quatrosi, 2020. "Fiscal policies, public investments and wellbeing: mapping the evolution of the EU," Insights into Regional Development, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 2(4), pages 725-749, December.
    10. Bakeev, M., 2022. "A compromise between formalism and realism as a way to influence economic policy," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 57(5), pages 113-125.
    11. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "The (conflict-augmented) Phillips Curve is alive and well," Working Papers 0055, ASTRIL - Associazione Studi e Ricerche Interdisciplinari sul Lavoro.
    12. Nikola Milović & Mijat Jocović & Nikola Martinović, 2021. "Analysis of the Impact of Macroeconomic Stability on the Level of Global Competitiveness of Western Balkan Countries," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(2), pages 23-37.
    13. Roberto Artoni, 2021. "Passo d'addio (Final recital)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 74(295), pages 213-227.
    14. Schoder, Christian, 2020. "A Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic Disequilibrium model for business cycle analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 117-132.
    15. Ricardo Summa & Julia Braga, 2020. "Two routes back to the old Phillips curve: the amended mainstream model and the conflict augmented alternative," Bulletin of Political Economy, Bulletin of Political Economy, vol. 14(1), pages 81-115, June.
    16. Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2019. "Externalities and financial crisis – enough to cause collapse?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1207, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    17. Christian Hecker, 2021. "How Should Responsible Investors Behave? Keynes’s Distinction Between Entrepreneurship and Speculation Revisited," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 171(3), pages 459-473, July.
    18. Michl Aleš, 2019. "Ten Years Later: Lessons for DSGE Builders and Czech Policy Makers," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 19(3), pages 159-174, September.
    19. M. Yu. Andreyev & A. V. Polbin, 2019. "Trends of Macroeconomic Models," Administrative Consulting, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. North-West Institute of Management., issue 2.

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