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Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change

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Abstract
This paper considers the joint problem of model estimation and implementation of monetary policy in the face of uncertainty regarding the process of structural change in the economy. We model unobserved structural change through time variation in the natural rates of interest and unemployment. We show that certainty equivalent optimal policies perform poorly when there is model uncertainty about the natural rate processes. We then examine the properties of combined estimation methods and policy rules that are robust to this type of model uncertainty. We find that weighted averages of sample means perform well as estimators of natural rates. The optimal policy under uncertainty responds more aggressively to inflation and less so to the perceived unemployment gap then the certainty equivalent policy. This robust estimation/policy combination is highly effective at mitigating the effects of natural rate mismeasurement.

Suggested Citation

  • John C. Williams, 2005. "Robust estimation and monetary policy with unobserved structural change," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), pages 53-81.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgpr:y:2005:p:53-81
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    Cited by:

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    2. Maria Demertzis & Alexander F. Tieman, 2007. "Dealing With Uncertainty: Robust Rules In Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 54(2), pages 295-307, May.
    3. GEORGE W. EVANS & BRUCE McGOUGH, 2007. "Optimal Constrained Interest‐Rate Rules," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1335-1356, September.
    4. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2007. "Inflation Targeting under Imperfect Knowledge," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.),Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 4, pages 077-123, Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Athanasios Orphanides & John C. Williams, 2006. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 366-375, 04-05.
    6. Paul De Grauwe, 2012. "Booms and busts: New Keynesian and behavioural explanations," Chapters, in: Robert M. Solow & Jean-Philippe Touffut (ed.), What’s Right with Macroeconomics?, chapter 6, pages 149-180, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Ippei Fujiwara & Naoko Hara & Naohisa Hirakata & Takeshi Kimura & Shinichiro Watanabe, 2007. "Japanese Monetary Policy during the Collapse of the Bubble Economy: A View of Policymaking under Uncertainty," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 89-128, November.
    8. Richard A. Ashley. & Randall J. Verbrugge., 2006. "Mis-Specification and Frequency Dependence in a New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers e06-12, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Carola Conces Binder, 2021. "Central Bank Communication and Disagreement about the Natural Rate Hypothesis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 81-123, June.
    10. Filippo Gori, 2016. "Disentangling the Monetary Policy Stance," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 27, Bank of Lithuania.
    11. Michael Donadelli & Antonio Paradiso & Max Riedel, 2019. "A Quasi Real‐Time Leading Indicator for the EU Industrial Production," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 87(4), pages 510-542, July.
    12. Richard A. Ashley & Randall J. Verbrugge., 2006. "Mis-Specification in Phillips Curve Regressions: Quantifying Frequency Dependence in This Relationship While Allowing for Feedback," Working Papers e06-11, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.

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