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Stress testing household balance sheets in Luxembourg

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  • Giordana, Gastón
  • Ziegelmeyer, Michael
Abstract
This paper uses individual household data from Luxembourg to evaluate how severe economic conditions could affect bank exposure to the household sector. Using data from a representative survey, information on household income, expenses and liquid assets are used to calculate household-specific probabilities of default (PD), aggregate bank exposure at default (EAD) and aggregate bank loss given default (LGD). The exercise is repeated with scenarios combining severe but plausible shocks to real estate prices, bonds and stocks, household income and interest rates. Compared to the baseline scenario, the LGD rises by a multiple of eight, reaching 4.2% of total bank exposure to the household sector. The high-stress scenario also generates a relatively high percentage of defaults among socio-economically disadvantaged households (i.e. low net wealth, low income, low education, three or more dependent children). Our main conclusion is that bank losses appear to be quite sensitive to financial stress, despite three mitigating factors in Luxembourg: indebted households tend to hold liquid assets that can help smooth shocks, household leverage tends to decline rapidly once mortgages have been serviced several years, and loan-to-value ratios at origination appear not to be excessive.

Suggested Citation

  • Giordana, Gastón & Ziegelmeyer, Michael, 2020. "Stress testing household balance sheets in Luxembourg," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-138.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:quaeco:v:76:y:2020:i:c:p:115-138
    DOI: 10.1016/j.qref.2019.04.003
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kirsten Abela & Ilias Georgakopoulus, 2022. "A stress testing framework for the Maltese household sector," CBM Working Papers WP/04/2022, Central Bank of Malta.
    3. Yiwen Chen & Thomas Y. Mathä & Giuseppe Pulina & Barbara Schuster & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2020. "The Luxembourg Household Finance Consumption Survey: Results from the third wave," BCL working papers 142, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    4. Evlakhova, Yu. & Alifanova, E. & Tregubova, A., 2021. "Banks behavior patterns as a response to the population financial activity in the macroeconomic shocks in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 74-95.
    5. Aleksandra Riedl, 2021. "Are CESEE borrowers at risk? COVID-19 implications in a stress test analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/21, pages 37-53.
    6. Gaston Giordana & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2024. "Using household-level data to guide borrower-based macro-prudential policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 785-827, February.
    7. François Koulischer & Pauline Perray & Thi Thu Huyen Tran, 2022. "COVID-19 and the Mortgage Market in Luxembourg," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-24, March.
    8. Byrne, Shane & Devine, Kenneth & McCarthy, Yvonne, 2022. "Interrupting inertia: evidence from a mortgage refinancing field trial," Economic Letters 9/EL/22, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Thomas Y. Mathä & Ana Montes-Viñas & Giuseppe Pulina & Michael Ziegelmeyer, 2023. "The Luxembourg Household Finance and Consumption Survey: Results from the fourth wave in 2021," BCL working papers 176, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    10. Barasinska, Nataliya & Ludwig, Johannes & Vogel, Edgar, 2021. "The impact of borrower-based instruments on household vulnerability in Germany," Discussion Papers 20/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    11. Jiri Gregor & Hana Hejlova, 2020. "The household stress test," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes,, Czech National Bank.
    12. Kim, Young Il, 2020. "Examining the liquidity risk in the household sector and the policy implications," KDI Policy Forum 279, Korea Development Institute (KDI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stress testing; Financial stability; HFCS; Household finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D10 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - General
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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