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The Kyoto protocol: Empirical evidence of a hidden success

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  • Maamoun, Nada
Abstract
How effective was the Kyoto protocol? International Environmental Agreements (IEA) have been on the rise over the past four decades; however, thus far their effectiveness is controversial. In view of the conflicting results found in the related literature, this paper addresses its effectiveness by utilizing for the first time the generalized synthetic control method (GSCM) to compare the emissions of the industrialized countries with a “No- Kyoto” counterfactual scenario that represents the expected emissions in the absence of the protocol. This method facilitates a robust comparison between treated and control countries as done by Almer and Winkler (2017) and account for the multiple treated units as done by Grunewald and Martinez-Zarzoso (2016), so as to capture the collective nature of the protocol. Results show that the protocol was successful in reducing the emissions of the ratifying countries approximately by 7% below the emissions expected under a “No-Kyoto” scenario, confirming the importance of accounting for the collective nature of the agreement.

Suggested Citation

  • Maamoun, Nada, 2019. "The Kyoto protocol: Empirical evidence of a hidden success," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 227-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeeman:v:95:y:2019:i:c:p:227-256
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2019.04.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Treatment effects; Kyoto protocol; International public goods; Air pollution; Global warming; Generalized synthetic controls;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • H87 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - International Fiscal Issues; International Public Goods
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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