[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v30y2008i5p2636-2644.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market

Author

Listed:
  • Liao, Huei-Chu
  • Lee, Yi-Huey
  • Suen, Yu-Bo
Abstract
This paper uses daily Brent crude prices to investigate the employment of electronic trading on the returns conditional volatility in the oil futures market. After a suitable GARCH model is established, the conditional volatility series are found. The Bai and Perron model is then used to find two significant structural breaks for these conditional volatility series around two implementation dates of electronic trading. This result indicates that the change in the trading system has significant impacts on the returns volatility since our estimated second break date is very close to the all-electronic trade implementation date. Moreover, the conditional volatility in the all-electronic trading period is found to be more dominated by the temporal persistence rather than the volatility clustering effect. All these evidence can shed some light for explaining the high relationship between more volatile world oil price and the more popular electronic trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Liao, Huei-Chu & Lee, Yi-Huey & Suen, Yu-Bo, 2008. "Electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2636-2644, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:2636-2644
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140-9883(08)00077-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aktham Maghyereh, 2005. "Electronic Trading and Market Efficiency in an Emerging Market: The Case of the Jordanian Capital Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(4), pages 5-19, August.
    2. Hans R. Stoll, 2006. "Electronic Trading in Stock Markets," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(1), pages 153-174, Winter.
    3. Patricia Chelley‐Steeley, 2005. "Noise and the Trading Mechanism: the Case of SETS," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 11(3), pages 387-424, June.
    4. Zhongjun Qu & Pierre Perron, 2007. "Estimating and Testing Structural Changes in Multivariate Regressions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 459-502, March.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    7. Perron, Pierre & Qu, Zhongjun, 2006. "Estimating restricted structural change models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 373-399, October.
    8. A. W. Dnes & J. S. Seaton, 1999. "The regulation of electricity: results from an event study," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 609-618.
    9. Assaf, Ata, 2006. "The stochastic volatility in mean model and automation: Evidence from TSE," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 241-253, May.
    10. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    11. Harrison Hong, 2000. "A Model of Returns and Trading in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 959-988, April.
    12. Freund, William C & Pagano, Michael S, 2000. "Market Efficiency in Specialist Markets Before and After Automation," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 35(3), pages 79-104, August.
    13. Battalio, Robert H. & Hatch, Brian & Jennings, Robert, 1997. "SOES Trading and Market Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 225-238, June.
    14. Fleming, Jeff & Ostdiek, Barbara, 1999. "The impact of energy derivatives on the crude oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 135-167, April.
    15. Franz Wirl and Azra Kujundzic, 2004. "The Impact of OPEC Conference Outcomes on World Oil Prices 1984-2001," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 45-62.
    16. Weiner, Robert J., 2002. "Sheep in wolves' clothing? Speculators and price volatility in petroleum futures," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 391-400.
    17. Eldor, Rafi & Hauser, Shmuel & Pilo, Batia & Shurki, Itzik, 2006. "The contribution of market makers to liquidity and efficiency of options trading in electronic markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2025-2040, July.
    18. Ho-Chuan Huang & Wan-hsiu Cheng, 2005. "Tests of the CAPM under structural changes," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 523-541.
    19. Joshua D. Coval & Tyler Shumway, 2001. "Is Sound Just Noise?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1887-1910, October.
    20. Giot, Pierre & Laurent, Sebastien, 2003. "Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 435-457, September.
    21. David Cabedo, J. & Moya, Ismael, 2003. "Estimating oil price 'Value at Risk' using the historical simulation approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 239-253, May.
    22. Plourde, André & Watkins, G. C., 1998. "Crude oil prices between 1985 and 1994: how volatile in relation to other commodities?," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 245-262, September.
    23. Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 467-488, July.
    24. A. Craig MacKinlay, 1997. "Event Studies in Economics and Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(1), pages 13-39, March.
    25. Raymond Tsang, 1999. "Open outcry and electronic trading in futures exchanges," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 1999(Spring), pages 21-39.
    26. Freund, William C. & Larrain, Maurice & Pagano, Michael S., 1997. "Market efficiency before and after the introduction of electronic trading at the Toronto stock exchange," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 29-56.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ching-Chun Wei & Chung-Hsuan Chen, 2014. "Does WTI Oil Price Returns Volatility Spillover to the Exchange Rate and Stock Index in the US?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(2), pages 189-197.
    2. Czupryna Marcin & Oleksy Paweł, 2018. "The Effect of an Electronic Exchange on Prices and Return Volatility in the Fine Wine Market," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 14(4), pages 22-35, December.
    3. Adamolekun, Gbenga & Sakariyahu, Rilwan & Lawal, Rodiat & Ahmed, Ammar, 2023. "Electronic trading and stock market participation in Africa: Does technology induce participation?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    4. Hayat, Aziz & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2010. "The oil stock fluctuations in the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-184, January.
    5. Wang, Cheng & Bouri, Elie & Xu, Yahua & Zhang, Dingsheng, 2023. "Intraday and overnight tail risks and return predictability in the crude oil market: Evidence from oil-related regular news and extreme shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Alvarez, Jesus & Rodriguez, Eduardo, 2008. "Short-term predictability of crude oil markets: A detrended fluctuation analysis approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2645-2656, September.
    2. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2019. "Futures-based forecasts: How useful are they for oil price volatility forecasting?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 639-649.
    3. Auer, Benjamin R., 2014. "Daily seasonality in crude oil returns and volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 82-88.
    4. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wei, Yu, 2011. "Can GARCH-class models capture long memory in WTI crude oil markets?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 921-927, May.
    5. Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2017. "The asymptotic behaviour of the residual sum of squares in models with multiple break points," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 667-698, October.
    6. Fan, Ying & Zhang, Yue-Jun & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Estimating 'Value at Risk' of crude oil price and its spillover effect using the GED-GARCH approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3156-3171, November.
    7. Kang, Sang Hoon & Kang, Sang-Mok & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2009. "Forecasting volatility of crude oil markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 119-125, January.
    8. Oka, Tatsushi & Perron, Pierre, 2018. "Testing for common breaks in a multiple equations system," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 204(1), pages 66-85.
    9. Casini, Alessandro & Perron, Pierre, 2021. "Continuous record Laplace-based inference about the break date in structural change models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 3-21.
    10. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    11. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2008. "Estimating and Testing Multiple Structural Changes in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series wp2008-017, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    12. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2008. "The limit distribution of the estimates in cointegrated regression models with multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 59-73, September.
    13. Perron, Pierre & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2014. "A Note On Estimating And Testing For Multiple Structural Changes In Models With Endogenous Regressors Via 2sls," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(2), pages 491-507, April.
    14. He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung & Yen, Jerome, 2011. "Value-at-risk estimation of crude oil price using MCA based transient risk modeling approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 903-911, September.
    15. Pierre Perron & Yohei Yamamoto, 2015. "Using OLS to Estimate and Test for Structural Changes in Models with Endogenous Regressors," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 119-144, January.
    16. Cheng, Wan-Hsiu & Hung, Jui-Cheng, 2011. "Skewness and leptokurtosis in GARCH-typed VaR estimation of petroleum and metal asset returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 160-173, January.
    17. Cheong, Chin Wen, 2009. "Modeling and forecasting crude oil markets using ARCH-type models," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2346-2355, June.
    18. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2014. "Output Growth and its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(3), pages 728-751, January.
    19. Seong Yeon Chang & Pierre Perron, 2018. "A comparison of alternative methods to construct confidence intervals for the estimate of a break date in linear regression models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(6), pages 577-601, July.
    20. Tarek Bouazizi & Mongi Lassoued & Zouhaier Hadhek, 2021. "Oil Price Volatility Models during Coronavirus Crisis: Testing with Appropriate Models Using Further Univariate GARCH and Monte Carlo Simulation Models," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(1), pages 281-292.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:30:y:2008:i:5:p:2636-2644. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.