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Correlation dynamics of crude oil with agricultural commodities: A comparison between energy and food crops

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  • Pal, Debdatta
  • Mitra, Subrata K.
Abstract
This study elucidates plausible correlation between crude oil and agricultural commodities. We assess whether the conditional correlation of crude oil with energy crops (e.g., corn and soybeans) is different from that of food crops (e.g., oats and wheat). We find a stronger correlation of about 20 percent between returns of crude oil and energy crops. However, the correlation coefficient value for oil-oats and oil-wheat is as low as eight percent. We add to the literature by exploring correlation in a dynamic context using three different GARCH models and found that conditional correlation between crude oil and energy corps is relatively high. In order to reduce risk associated with crude oil price fluctuations, this study also examined hedging possibilities against crude oil by investment in agricultural commodities. Although hedging effectiveness is low with all underlying agricultural commodities, soybeans provide relatively better hedging possibilities compared to other agricultural crops.

Suggested Citation

  • Pal, Debdatta & Mitra, Subrata K., 2019. "Correlation dynamics of crude oil with agricultural commodities: A comparison between energy and food crops," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 453-466.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:82:y:2019:i:c:p:453-466
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.05.017
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Conditional correlation; Hedging; Crude oil; Agricultural commodities; Multivariate GARCH;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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