[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecoedu/v66y2018icp223-244.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Enrollment and degree completion in higher education without admission standards

Author

Listed:
  • Declercq, Koen
  • Verboven, Frank
Abstract
Many countries organize their higher education system with limited or no ex ante admission standards. They instead rely more heavily on an ex post selection mechanism, based on the students’ performance during higher education. We analyze how a system of ex post selection affects initial enrollment and final degree completion, using a rich dataset for Belgium (region of Flanders). We develop a dynamic discrete choice model of college/university and major choice, where the outcome of the enrollment decision is uncertain. Upon observing past performance, students may decide to continue, reorient to another major, or drop out. We find that ex post student selection is very strong: less than half of the students successfully complete their course work in the first year. Unsuccessful students mainly switch from university to college majors, or from college majors to drop-out. We use the estimates to evaluate the effects of alternative, ex ante admission policies. We find that well-designed moderate admission standards reduce unsuccessful initial enrolment and at the same time do not decrease degree completion. This is because ex ante screening better matches students to the right majors, reducing the probability of early drop-out.

Suggested Citation

  • Declercq, Koen & Verboven, Frank, 2018. "Enrollment and degree completion in higher education without admission standards," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 223-244.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:66:y:2018:i:c:p:223-244
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2018.08.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272775718301304
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econedurev.2018.08.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. Pietro Garibaldi & Francesco Giavazzi & Andrea Ichino & Enrico Rettore, 2012. "College Cost and Time to Complete a Degree: Evidence from Tuition Discontinuities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(3), pages 699-711, August.
    3. Terry Long, B.Bridget, 2004. "How have college decisions changed over time? An application of the conditional logistic choice model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 271-296.
    4. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529.
    5. Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd Stinebrickner, 2014. "Academic Performance and College Dropout: Using Longitudinal Expectations Data to Estimate a Learning Model," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(3), pages 601-644.
    6. Peter Arcidiacono, 2005. "Affirmative Action in Higher Education: How Do Admission and Financial Aid Rules Affect Future Earnings?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(5), pages 1477-1524, September.
    7. Kifmann Mathias & Heineck Martin & Lorenz Normann, 2006. "A Duration Analysis of the Effects of Tuition Fees for Long-Term Students in Germany," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 226(1), pages 82-112, February.
    8. Elena Mattana & Juanna Joensen, 2016. "Student Aid, Academic Achievement, and Labor Market Behavior," 2016 Meeting Papers 1102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Esteban M. Aucejo & Jonathan James, 2019. "Catching up to girls: Understanding the gender imbalance in educational attainment within race," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 502-525, June.
    10. Susan M. Dynarski, 2003. "Does Aid Matter? Measuring the Effect of Student Aid on College Attendance and Completion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 279-288, March.
    11. Matthew T. Johnson, 2013. "Borrowing Constraints, College Enrollment, and Delayed Entry," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(4), pages 669-725.
    12. Arcidiacono, Peter, 2004. "Ability sorting and the returns to college major," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 121(1-2), pages 343-375.
    13. repec:mpr:mprres:7891 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Peter Arcidiacono & Robert A. Miller, 2011. "Conditional Choice Probability Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models With Unobserved Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(6), pages 1823-1867, November.
    15. David Autor & David Figlio & Krzysztof Karbownik & Jeffrey Roth & Melanie Wasserman, 2019. "Family Disadvantage and the Gender Gap in Behavioral and Educational Outcomes," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 338-381, July.
    16. Dennis Epple & Richard Romano & Holger Sieg, 2006. "Admission, Tuition, and Financial Aid Policies in the Market for Higher Education," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 885-928, July.
    17. Gunnes, Trude & Kirkebøen, Lars J. & Rønning, Marte, 2013. "Financial incentives and study duration in higher education," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 1-11.
    18. Keane, Michael P & Wolpin, Kenneth I, 1997. "The Career Decisions of Young Men," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(3), pages 473-522, June.
    19. Chao Fu, 2014. "Equilibrium Tuition, Applications, Admissions, and Enrollment in the College Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(2), pages 225-281.
    20. Matthew T. Johnson, 2013. "Borrowing Constraints, College Enrollment, and Delayed Entry," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 57fc00235c3a47ff92cb253f9, Mathematica Policy Research.
    21. Bordon, Paola & Fu, Chao, 2015. "College-Major Choice to College-Then-Major Choice," MPRA Paper 79643, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Häkkinen, Iida & Uusitalo, Roope, 2003. "The Effect of a Student Aid Reform on Graduation: A Duration Analysis," Working Paper Series 2003:8, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    23. Stijn Kelchtermans & Frank Verboven, 2010. "Participation and study decisions in a public system of higher education," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 355-391.
    24. Paola Bordon & Chao Fu, 2015. "College-Major Choice to College-Then-Major Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1247-1288.
    25. Marc Frenette, 2006. "Too Far to Go On? Distance to School and University Participation," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 31-58.
    26. Kevin M. Stange, 2012. "An Empirical Investigation of the Option Value of College Enrollment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 49-84, January.
    27. Peter Arcidiacono & Paul B. Ellickson, 2011. "Practical Methods for Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 363-394, September.
    28. Bridget Terry Long & Michal Kurlaender, 2008. "Do Community Colleges provide a Viable Pathway to a Baccalaureate Degree?," NBER Working Papers 14367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Contini,Dalit & Ricciardi,Riccardo & Romito,Marco & Salza,Guido & Zotti,Roberto, 2020. "Improving university dropout and student careers. What room for institutional action?," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202004, University of Turin.
    2. Walter Alexander Mata-López & Sergio Tobón, 2018. "Analysis of Factors Associated to the Enrollment and Demand of Computing-Related Careers," Social Sciences, MDPI, vol. 8(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Contini, Dalit & Salza, Guido, 2020. "Too few university graduates. Inclusiveness and effectiveness of the Italian higher education system," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    4. Gregory Gilpin & Michael Kofoed, 2020. "Employer-Sponsored Education Assistance and Graduate Program Choice, Cost, and Finance," Research in Higher Education, Springer;Association for Institutional Research, vol. 61(4), pages 431-458, June.
    5. Cristian Usala & Mariano Porcu & Isabella Sulis, 2023. "The high school effect on students’ mobility choices," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(4), pages 1259-1293, October.
    6. De Groote, Olivier, 2019. "Dynamic Effort Choice in High School: Costs and Benefits of an Academic Track," TSE Working Papers 19-1002, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jun 2023.
    7. Navarini, Lorenzo & Verhaest, Dieter, 2024. "Returns to Education and Overeducation Risk: A Dynamic Model," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1456, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2022. "The determinants of university dropout: A review of the socio-economic literature," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Elena Mattana & Juanna Joensen, 2014. "Student Aid, Academic Achievement, and Labor Market Behavior: Grants or Loans?," 2014 Meeting Papers 707, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Elena Mattana & Juanna Joensen, 2016. "Student Aid, Academic Achievement, and Labor Market Behavior," 2016 Meeting Papers 1102, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. De Groote, Olivier, 2019. "Dynamic Effort Choice in High School: Costs and Benefits of an Academic Track," TSE Working Papers 19-1002, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Jun 2023.
    4. Lutz Hendricks & Oksana Leukhina, 2018. "The Return To College: Selection And Dropout Risk," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1077-1102, August.
    5. Kim, Sie Won, 2023. "The effect of promoting access to community colleges on educational and labor market outcomes," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    6. Lutz Hendricks & Oksana Leukhina, 2017. "How Risky is College Investment?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 26, pages 140-163, October.
    7. Dennis Epple & Richard Romano & Sinan Sarpça & Holger Sieg & Melanie Zaber, 2019. "Market power and price discrimination in the US market for higher education," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 50(1), pages 201-225, March.
    8. Sebastian Galiani & Juan Pantano, 2021. "Structural Models: Inception and Frontier," NBER Working Papers 28698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Murasawa, Yasutomo, 2023. "大学中退の逐次意思決定モデルの構造推定 [Structural estimation of a sequential decision model of college dropout]," MPRA Paper 118183, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Juanna Schrøter Joensen, 2010. "Timing and Incentives: Impacts of Student Aid on Academic Achievement," 2010 Meeting Papers 823, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Bruneel-Zupanc, Christophe Alain, 2021. "Discrete-Continuous Dynamic Choice Models: Identification and Conditional Choice Probability Estimation," TSE Working Papers 21-1185, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    12. Aina, Carmen & Baici, Eliana & Casalone, Giorgia & Pastore, Francesco, 2018. "The Economics of University Dropouts and Delayed Graduation: A Survey," IZA Discussion Papers 11421, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Kasahara, Hiroyuki & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2008. "Pseudo-likelihood estimation and bootstrap inference for structural discrete Markov decision models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 92-106, September.
    14. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    15. Philipp Eisenhauer & James J. Heckman & Stefano Mosso, 2015. "Estimation Of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models By Maximum Likelihood And The Simulated Method Of Moments," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(2), pages 331-357, May.
    16. Fernanda Estevan & Thomas Gall & Louis-Philippe Morin, 2019. "Can Affirmative Action Affect Major Choice?," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-324, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    17. Navarini, Lorenzo & Verhaest, Dieter, 2024. "Returns to Education and Overeducation Risk: A Dynamic Model," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1456, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    18. Sang Yoon (Tim) Lee & Yongseok Shin & Donghoon Lee, 2015. "The Option Value of Human Capital: Higher Education and Wage Inequality," NBER Working Papers 21724, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Peter Arcidiacono, Holger Sieg, Frank Sloan, 2001. "Living Rationally Under the Volcano? Heavy Drinking and Smoking Among the Elderly," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 207, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. Kartik B. Athreya & Felicia Ionescu & Urvi Neelakantan & Jessie Romero & Ivan Vidangos, 2020. "Who Values Access to College?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 20(03), March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic discrete choice; Higher education; Admission policies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:66:y:2018:i:c:p:223-244. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/econedurev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.