[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/mateco/v68y2017icp142-151.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Banking and sovereign debt crises in a monetary union without central bank intervention

Author

Listed:
  • Cheng, Jin
  • Dai, Meixing
  • Dufourt, Frédéric
Abstract
We analyze the conditions of emergence of a twin banking and sovereign debt crisis within a monetary union in which: (i) the central bank is not allowed to provide direct financial support to stressed member states or to play the role of lender of last resort in sovereign bond markets, and (ii) the responsibility of fighting against large scale bank runs, ascribed to domestic governments, is ensured through the implementation of a financial safety net (banking regulation and government deposit guarantee). We show that this broad institutional architecture, typical of the Eurozone at the onset of the financial crisis, is not always able to prevent the occurrence of a twin banking and sovereign debt crisis triggered by pessimistic investors’ expectations. Without significant backstop by the central bank, the financial safety net may actually aggravate, instead of improve, the financial situation of banks and of the government.

Suggested Citation

  • Cheng, Jin & Dai, Meixing & Dufourt, Frédéric, 2017. "Banking and sovereign debt crises in a monetary union without central bank intervention," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 142-151.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:142-151
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmateco.2016.01.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304406816000070
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmateco.2016.01.005?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Felipe Serrano, 2010. "The Spanish fiscal policy during the recent "great recession"," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(3), pages 371-388, April.
    2. Patrick Bolton & Olivier Jeanne, 2011. "Sovereign Default Risk and Bank Fragility in Financially Integrated Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 162-194, June.
    3. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    4. Emmanuel Farhi & Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki, 2014. "Fiscal Devaluations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 81(2), pages 725-760.
    5. Hasman, Augusto & López, Ángel L. & SamartIín, Margarita, 2011. "Government, taxes and banking crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2761-2770, October.
    6. Javier Garcia-Cicco & Roberto Pancrazi & Martin Uribe, 2010. "Real Business Cycles in Emerging Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2510-2531, December.
    7. von Hagen, Jürgen & Schuknecht, Ludger & Wolswijk, Guido, 2011. "Government bond risk premiums in the EU revisited: The impact of the financial crisis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 36-43, March.
    8. Martin Schneider & Aaron Tornell, 2004. "Balance Sheet Effects, Bailout Guarantees and Financial Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 71(3), pages 883-913.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    10. Bengt Holmstrom & Jean Tirole, 1998. "Private and Public Supply of Liquidity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(1), pages 1-40, February.
    11. Bauer, Christian & Herz, Bernhard & Karb, Volker, 2007. "Are twin currency and debt crises special?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 59-84, April.
    12. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Money in a Theory of Banking," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 30-53, March.
    13. Sebastian Dellepiane Avellaneda & Niamh Hardiman, 2010. "The European Context of Ireland’s Economic Crisis," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 41(4), pages 473-500.
    14. Eric M. Leeper, 2013. "Fiscal Limits and Monetary Policy," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(2), pages 33-58.
    15. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "Fiscal Stimulus with Spending Reversals," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 878-895, November.
    16. Douglas W. Diamond & Philip H. Dybvig, 2000. "Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 24(Win), pages 14-23.
    17. Calvo, Guillermo A, 1988. "Servicing the Public Debt: The Role of Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 647-661, September.
    18. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
    19. Mr. Fabian Valencia & Mr. Luc Laeven, 2008. "Systemic Banking Crises: A New Database," IMF Working Papers 2008/224, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2000. "A Theory of Bank Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(6), pages 2431-2465, December.
    21. Acharya, Viral V. & Steffen, Sascha, 2015. "The “greatest” carry trade ever? Understanding eurozone bank risks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 215-236.
    22. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2012. "The Euro's Three Crises," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 44(1 (Spring), pages 157-231.
    23. Aguiar, Mark & Gopinath, Gita, 2006. "Defaultable debt, interest rates and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 64-83, June.
    24. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    25. De Paoli, Biana & Hoggarth, Glenn & Saporta, Victoria, 2006. "Financial Stability Paper No 1: Costs of Sovereign Default," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 1, Bank of England.
    26. Nicola Gennaioli & Alberto Martin & Stefano Rossi, 2014. "Sovereign Default, Domestic Banks, and Financial Institutions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(2), pages 819-866, April.
    27. Enrique G. Mendoza & Vivian Z. Yue, 2012. "A General Equilibrium Model of Sovereign Default and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 127(2), pages 889-946.
    28. De Grauwe, Paul & Ji, Yuemei, 2013. "Self-fulfilling crises in the Eurozone: An empirical test," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-36.
    29. Harold L. Cole & Timothy J. Kehoe, 2000. "Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(1), pages 91-116.
    30. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2010. "This Time is Different Chartbook: Country Histories on Debt, Default, and Financial Crises," NBER Working Papers 15815, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Alejandro Justiniano & Bruce Preston, 2010. "Monetary policy and uncertainty in an empirical small open‐economy model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 93-128, January.
    32. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey Sachs, 2000. "The Onset of the East Asian Financial Crisis," NBER Chapters, in: Currency Crises, pages 105-153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Diamond, Douglas W. & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2001. "Banks, short-term debt and financial crises: theory, policy implications and applications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 37-71, June.
    34. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2016. "The Mystery of the Printing Press: Monetary Policy and Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(6), pages 1329-1371.
    35. Sandro Brusco & Fabio Castiglionesi, 2007. "Liquidity Coinsurance, Moral Hazard, and Financial Contagion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2275-2302, October.
    36. Carey, Mark & Stulz, René M. (ed.), 2007. "The Risks of Financial Institutions," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226092850, September.
    37. Chang, Roberto & Velasco, Andres, 2000. "Banks, debt maturity and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 169-194, June.
    38. Mora, Nada, 2006. "Sovereign credit ratings: Guilty beyond reasonable doubt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 2041-2062, July.
    39. Amable, Bruno & Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & De Bandt, Olivier, 2002. "Optimal capacity in the banking sector and economic growth," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 491-517, March.
    40. Singh, Rajesh, 2007. "Asset Prices and Twin Crises," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12844, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    41. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1998. "Currency and banking crises: the early warnings of distress," International Finance Discussion Papers 629, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    42. Philip R. Lane, 2012. "The European Sovereign Debt Crisis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 49-68, Summer.
    43. Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
    44. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2009. "The Janus-headed salvation: sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-09," Working Paper Series 1127, European Central Bank.
    45. Miller, V., 2003. "Bank runs and currency peg credibility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 385-392, June.
    46. Ejsing, Jacob & Lemke, Wolfgang, 2011. "The Janus-headed salvation: Sovereign and bank credit risk premia during 2008-2009," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 28-31, January.
    47. Jonathan Eaton & Mark Gersovitz, 1981. "Debt with Potential Repudiation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309.
    48. Paul De Grauwe, 2011. "Managing a Fragile Eurozone," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(02), pages 40-45, July.
    49. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    50. Yan Bai & Cristina Arellano, 2012. "Linkages across sovereign debt markets," 2012 Meeting Papers 414, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    51. Singh, Rajesh, 2009. "Asset prices and twin crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 26-55, February.
    52. Franklin Allen & Douglas Gale, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Regulation," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 341-368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    53. Brutti, Filippo, 2011. "Sovereign defaults and liquidity crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 65-72, May.
    54. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2001. "A Model of Financial Crises in Emerging Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(2), pages 489-517.
    55. Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, 2012. "The "Mystery of the Printing Press" Monetary Policy and Self-fulfilling Debt Crises," Discussion Papers 1424, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Aug 2014.
    56. Viral Acharya & Itamar Drechsler & Philipp Schnabl, 2014. "A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(6), pages 2689-2739, December.
    57. Bleaney, Michael & Bougheas, Spiros & Skamnelos, Ilias, 2008. "A model of the interactions between banking crises and currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 695-706, September.
    58. Jay C. Shambaugh, 2012. "The Euro's Three Crises," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(1 (Spring), pages 157-231.
    59. Jagdeep S. Bhandari & Nadeem Ul Haque & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1990. "Growth, External Debt, and Sovereign Risk in a Small Open Economy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(2), pages 388-417, June.
    60. Flood, Robert P. & Marion, Nancy P., 2004. "A model of the joint distribution of banking and currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 841-865, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jin Cheng & Meixing Dai & Frédéric Dufourt, 2015. "The banking crisis with interbank market freeze," Working Papers of BETA 2015-20, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    2. Ahmet Kara, 2023. "Stabilizing instability‐suboptimality‐and‐chaos‐prone fluctuations at crisis junctures: Stochastic possibilities for crisis management," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1772-1786, April.
    3. Boucekkine, Raouf & Kazuo, Nishimura & Venditti, Alain, 2017. "Introduction to international financial markets and banking systems crises," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 87-91.
    4. Gabriel Cuadra & Manuel Ramos-Francia & Santiago Garcia-Verdu, 2018. "On the role of financial aid in a default episode," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 27(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Lim, Jamus Jerome, 2019. "Growth in the shadow of debt," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 98-112.
    6. Theodoros V. Stamatopoulos & Stavros E. Arvanitis & Dimitris M. Terzakis, 2017. "The risk of the sovereign debt default: the Eurozone crisis 2008–2013," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(38), pages 3782-3796, August.
    7. Meier, Samira & Rodriguez Gonzalez, Miguel & Kunze, Frederik, 2021. "The global financial crisis, the EMU sovereign debt crisis and international financial regulation: lessons from a systematic literature review," International Review of Law and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jin Cheng & Meixing Dai & Frédéric Dufourt, 2014. "Banking and Sovereign Debt Crises in a Monetary Union Without Central Bank Intervention," Working Papers halshs-01009684, HAL.
    2. Engler, Philipp & Große Steffen, Christoph, 2016. "Sovereign risk, interbank freezes, and aggregate fluctuations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 34-61.
    3. Mitchener, Kris & Trebesch, Christoph, 2021. "Sovereign Debt in the 21st Century: Looking Backward, Looking Forward," CEPR Discussion Papers 15935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Bordo, M.D. & Meissner, C.M., 2016. "Fiscal and Financial Crises," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 355-412, Elsevier.
    5. Sosa-Padilla, César, 2018. "Sovereign defaults and banking crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 88-105.
    6. Diego J. Perez, 2015. "Sovereign Debt, Domestic Banks and the Provision of Public Liquidity," Discussion Papers 15-016, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    7. Eijffinger, Sylvester C.W. & Karataş, Bilge, 2023. "Three sisters: The interlinkage between sovereign debt, currency, and banking crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    8. Xuan Wang, 2019. "When Do Currency Unions Benefit From Default ?," 2019 Papers pwa938, Job Market Papers.
    9. Xuan Wang, 2021. "Bankruptcy Codes and Risk Sharing of Currency Unions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-009/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
    11. Anil Ari, 2015. "Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk-Taking," Working Papers 202, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    12. Große Steffen, Christoph, 2015. "Uncertainty shocks and non-fundamental debt crises: An ambiguity approach," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 112936, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Russell Cooper & Kalin Nikolov, 2018. "Government Debt And Banking Fragility: The Spreading Of Strategic Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1905-1925, November.
    14. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    15. Coimbra, Nuno, 2020. "Sovereigns at risk: A dynamic model of sovereign debt and banking leverage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    16. Claudio Borio & Marc Farag & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2023. "Tackling the fiscal policy-financial stability nexus," BIS Working Papers 1090, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Michal Szkup, 2022. "Preventing Self-Fulfilling Debt Crises: A Global Games Approach," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 22-55, January.
    18. Arellano, Cristina & Kocherlakota, Narayana, 2014. "Internal debt crises and sovereign defaults," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 68-80.
    19. Irina Balteanu & Aitor Erce, 2018. "Linking Bank Crises and Sovereign Defaults: Evidence from Emerging Markets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(4), pages 617-664, December.
    20. Stangebye, Zachary R., 2020. "Beliefs and long-maturity sovereign debt," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banking crisis; Sovereign debt crisis; Bank runs; Financial safety net; Liquidity regulation; Government deposit guarantee;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:mateco:v:68:y:2017:i:c:p:142-151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jmateco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.