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Anhaltende Divergenz bei Inflations- und Lohnentwicklung in der Eurozone: Gefahr für die Währungsunion?

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Dullien
  • Ulrich Fritsche
Abstract
In this paper we investigate if the actual debate on divergences in the Euro area is indeed a reason to be concerned. We argue that the standard definition of divergence in terms of standard deviations is too narrow to capture the persistence in deviations in output, prices and wages. Our analysis reveals that deviations are indeed persistent in the Euro area. To investigate a control group, we present results for unit labour cost dynamics in (West) Germany's Länder and the United States' federal states. The results show that the recent development in the Euro area is indeed special and potentially harmful. Dieser Aufsatz untersucht, inwieweit die jüngste Debatte um mögliche Divergenzen in der Eurozone tatsächlich einen Grund zur Besorgnis aufzählt. Dabei wird argumentiert, dass die häufig übliche Definition von Divergenzen als die Veränderung der Standardabweichung bei Inflation und Wirtschaftswachstum um den Euro-Mittelwert zu kurz greift, da diese Definition nicht die Persistenz in der Entwicklung aufzeigt und damit gefährliche Verschiebungen im Niveau von Wirtschaftsleistung und relativem Preis- und Lohnniveau nicht erfasst. Eine dementsprechende Analyse zeigt, dass die Divergenzen in der Eurozone tatsächlich sehr hartnäckig sind. In einem Vergleich mit der Entwicklung von Lohnstückkosten mit jenen zwischen US-Staaten und deutschen Bundesländern zeigt sich zudem, dass die aktuellen Entwicklungen in der Eurozone tatsächlich für eine Währungsunion ungewöhnlich und potenziell wirtschaftlich schädlich sind.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Dullien & Ulrich Fritsche, 2007. "Anhaltende Divergenz bei Inflations- und Lohnentwicklung in der Eurozone: Gefahr für die Währungsunion?," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 56-76.
    • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:76-4-6
    DOI: 10.3790/vjh.76.4.56
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    8. Enderlein, Henrik, 2004. "Nationale Wirtschaftspolitik in der europäischen Währungsunion," Schriften aus dem Max-Planck-Institut für Gesellschaftsforschung Köln, Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies, volume 49, number 49.
    9. Ulrich Fritsche & Vladimir Kuzin, 2007. "Unit labor cost growth differentials in the Euro area, Germany, and the US: lessons from PANIC and cluster analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200703, University of Hamburg, Department of Socioeconomics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Daniela Schwarzer, 2011. "The EU in Search of its New Shape: Economic Challenges and Governance Reforms in the Sovereign Debt Crisis," Chapters, in: Carlo Secchi & Antonio Villafranca (ed.), Global Governance and the Role of the EU, chapter 5, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Oliver Landmann, 2009. "EMU@10: Coping with Rotating Slumps," Discussion Paper Series 9, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Jul 2009.
    3. Afflatet, Nicolas, 2014. "European Monetary Policy in the Heterogeneous Currency Area and the Open Question of Convergence," EconStor Preprints 93382, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Unit labor costs; inflation; EMU; convergence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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