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Economic shocks and growth: spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis

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  • Doran, Justin
  • Fingleton, Bernard
Abstract
The response by regional and national economies to exogenous impulses has a well-established literature in both spatial econometrics and in mainstream econometrics and is of considerable importance given the current economic crisis. This paper focuses on dynamic counterfactual predictions and impulse-response functions to provide insight regarding the question of whether responses to economic shocks are transitory or permanent. Analysis shows that output shocks have permanent effects on productivity with economies adjusting to new levels following a shock. This suggests that the current recession will be embodied permanently within the memory of some of Europe's leading economies as a hysteretic effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Doran, Justin & Fingleton, Bernard, 2012. "Economic shocks and growth: spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis," MPRA Paper 47292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47292
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Baltagi, Badi H. & Fingleton, Bernard & Pirotte, Alain, 2019. "A time-space dynamic panel data model with spatial moving average errors," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 13-31.
    2. Bernard Fingleton, 2020. "Exploring Brexit with dynamic spatial panel models: some possible outcomes for employment across the EU regions," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 64(2), pages 455-491, April.
    3. Hanson, Daniel & Toru Delibasi, Tuba & Gatti, Matteo & Cohen, Shamai, 2022. "How do changes in economic activity affect air passenger traffic? The use of state-dependent income elasticities to improve aviation forecasts," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    4. Aura Reggiani, 2022. "The Architecture of Connectivity: A Key to Network Vulnerability, Complexity and Resilience," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 415-437, September.
    5. O'Connor, Sean & Doyle, Eleanor & Doran, Justin, 2018. "Diversity, employment growth and spatial spillovers amongst Irish regions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 260-267.
    6. Andrea Filippetti & Petros Gkotsis & Antonio Vezzani & Antonio Zinilli, 2020. "Are innovative regions more resilient? Evidence from Europe in 2008–2016," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(3), pages 807-832, October.
    7. Bernard Fingleton, 2020. "Italexit, is it another Brexit?," Journal of Geographical Systems, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 77-104, January.
    8. Elias Giannakis & Adriana Bruggeman, 2017. "Economic crisis and regional resilience: Evidence from Greece," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(3), pages 451-476, August.
    9. Justin Doran & Bernard Fingleton, 2016. "Employment Resilience in Europe and the 2008 Economic Crisis: Insights from Micro-Level Data," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 644-656, April.
    10. Roberto Cellini & Tiziana Cuccia, 2019. "Do behaviours in cultural markets affect economic resilience? An analysis of Italian regions," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(4), pages 784-801, April.
    11. Susan Christopherson & Gordon L. Clark & John Whiteman, 2015. "Introduction: the Euro crisis and the future of Europe," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(5), pages 843-853.
    12. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Mirjana Čižmešija, 2015. "European economic sentiment indicator: An empirical reappraisal," EFZG Working Papers Series 1505, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    13. Justin Doran & Bernard Fingleton, 2015. "Resilience from the micro perspective," Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 8(2), pages 205-223.
    14. Justin Doran & Bernard Fingleton, 2018. "US Metropolitan Area Resilience: Insights from dynamic spatial panel estimation," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 50(1), pages 111-132, February.
    15. Gudmundsson, S.V. & Cattaneo, M. & Redondi, R., 2021. "Forecasting temporal world recovery in air transport markets in the presence of large economic shocks: The case of COVID-19," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    vector error correction; European Union; economic shocks; crisis; Verdoorn law; productivity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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