[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jsusta/v12y2020i23p9890-d451552.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Climate Change and Sustainability of Crop Yield in Dry Regions Food Insecurity

Author

Listed:
  • Samira Shayanmehr

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948974, Iran)

  • Shida Rastegari Henneberry

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK 74078, USA)

  • Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948974, Iran)

  • Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani

    (Department of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad 9177948974, Iran)

Abstract
The main purpose of the study was to investigate the effects of climatic change on potato yield and yield variability in Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Iran during 2041–2070 (2050s). The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was performed in this study to downscale the outputs of the General Circulation Model (GCM) and to obtain local climate projections under climate scenarios for a future period. The Just and Pope Production function was used to investigate the impacts of climatic change on potato yield. The results showed that the effects of future climatic change on potato yield and its variability would vary among the different AEZs. Potato yield would change in the range from −11% to 36% across different AEZs during the 2050s. Yield variability is expected to vary from −29% to 6%. Much more generally, the results indicated that the major potato producing zones would experience a decrease in mean potato yield in the presence of climate change. Our findings would help policymakers and planners in designing appropriate policies to allocate the lands under potato cultivation among different zones. These results also have important implications for adopting ecological zone-specific strategies to mitigate the reduction in potato yield and meet food security.

Suggested Citation

  • Samira Shayanmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2020. "Climate Change and Sustainability of Crop Yield in Dry Regions Food Insecurity," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-24, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:23:p:9890-:d:451552
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/23/9890/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/23/9890/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    2. Mahdiyeh Saei & Hamid Mohammadi & Saman Ziaee & Sajjad Barkhordari Dourbash, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Grain Yield and Yield Variability in Iran," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 23(2), pages 509-531, Spring.
    3. Mohammad Kheiri & Saeid Soufizadeh & Abdolali Ghaffari & Majid AghaAlikhani & Ali Eskandari, 2017. "Association between temperature and precipitation with dryland wheat yield in northwest of Iran," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(4), pages 703-717, April.
    4. Kim, Man-Keun & Pang, Arwin, 2009. "Climate Change Impact on Rice Yield and Production Risk," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 32(2), pages 1-13, June.
    5. S. Seo & Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar & Rashid Hassan & Pradeep Kurukulasuriya, 2009. "A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(3), pages 313-332, July.
    6. Hasan Gökhan Doğan & Arzu Kan, 2019. "The effect of precipitation and temperature on wheat yield in Turkey: a panel FMOLS and panel VECM approach," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 447-460, February.
    7. Frederick Armah & Justice Odoi & Genesis Yengoh & Samuel Obiri & David Yawson & Ernest Afrifa, 2011. "Food security and climate change in drought-sensitive savanna zones of Ghana," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 291-306, March.
    8. Arora, V.K. & Nath, J.C. & Singh, C.B., 2013. "Analyzing potato response to irrigation and nitrogen regimes in a sub-tropical environment using SUBSTOR-Potato model," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 69-76.
    9. Jean-Paul Chavas & Salvatore Di Falco & Felice Adinolfi & Fabian Capitanio, 2019. "Weather effects and their long-term impact on the distribution of agricultural yields: evidence from Italy," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 46(1), pages 29-51.
    10. Koundouri, Phoebe & Nauges, Celine, 2005. "On Production Function Estimation with Selectivity and Risk Considerations," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 30(3), pages 1-12, December.
    11. Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2012. "Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 11-16.
    12. Boubacar, Inoussa, 2010. "The Effects of Drought on Crop Yields and Yield Variability in Sahel," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56322, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    13. Tavana, Alireza & Emami Javid, Alireza & Houshfar, Ehsan & Mahmoudzadeh Andwari, Amin & Ashjaee, Mehdi & Shoaee, Saeed & Maghmoomi, Abtin & Marashi, Fatima, 2019. "Toward renewable and sustainable energies perspective in Iran," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 1194-1216.
    14. Salvatore Di Falco & Felice Adinolfi & Martina Bozzola & Fabian Capitanio, 2014. "Crop Insurance as a Strategy for Adapting to Climate Change," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 65(2), pages 485-504, June.
    15. Ragnar Tveteros, 1999. "Production Risk and Productivity Growth: Some Findings for Norwegian Salmon Aquaculture," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 161-179, September.
    16. Olotu Yahaya & Atanda E.O. & Rodiya A.A. & Okafor M.C., 2019. "Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Plantain Yield in Ondo State, Nigeria," Agriculture and Food Sciences Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(1), pages 57-65.
    17. Hamzeh Ahmadi & Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari & Mohammad Baaghideh, 2019. "Correction to: Impacts of climate change on apple tree cultivation areas in Iran," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 105-105, March.
    18. Just, Richard E. & Pope, Rulon D., 1978. "Stochastic specification of production functions and economic implications," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 67-86, February.
    19. Chi‐Chung Chen & Ching‐Cheng Chang, 2005. "The impact of weather on crop yield distribution in Taiwan: some new evidence from panel data models and implications for crop insurance," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(s3), pages 503-511, November.
    20. Martina Bozzola & Emanuele Massetti & Robert Mendelsohn & Fabian Capitanio, 2018. "A Ricardian analysis of the impact of climate change on Italian agriculture," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 45(1), pages 57-79.
    21. Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
    22. Robert Mendelsohn & Ariel Dinar, 2009. "Climate Change and Agriculture," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12990.
    23. Santosh Poudel & Koji Kotani, 2013. "Climatic impacts on crop yield and its variability in Nepal: do they vary across seasons and altitudes?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 327-355, January.
    24. Hamzeh Ahmadi & Gholamabbas Fallah Ghalhari & Mohammad Baaghideh, 2019. "Impacts of climate change on apple tree cultivation areas in Iran," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 91-103, March.
    25. Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker & Khorshed Alam & Jeff Gow, 2014. "Assessing the effects of climate change on rice yields: An econometric investigation using Bangladeshi panel data," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 405-416.
    26. Richard E. Just & Rulon D. Pope, 1979. "Production Function Estimation and Related Risk Considerations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 61(2), pages 276-284.
    27. Olotu Yahaya & Atanda E.O. & Rodiya A.A. & Okafor M.C., 2019. "Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Plantain Yield in Ondo State, Nigeria," Agriculture and Food Sciences Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(1), pages 57-65.
    28. Mortazavi, Seyed Abolghasem & Hezareh, Reza & Ahmadi Kaliji, Sina & Shayan Mehr, Samira, 2014. "Application of Linear and Non-linear Programming Model to Assess the Sustainability of Water Resources in Agricultural Patterns," International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics, vol. 4(1), pages 1-6, March.
    29. Valentina Mereu & Gianluca Carboni & Andrea Gallo & Raffaello Cervigni & Donatella Spano, 2015. "Impact of climate change on staple food crop production in Nigeria," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 321-336, September.
    30. K, Sudarkodi & K, Sathyabama, 2011. "The Impact Of Climate Change On Agriculture," MPRA Paper 29784, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Vashisht, B.B. & Nigon, T. & Mulla, D.J. & Rosen, C. & Xu, H. & Twine, T. & Jalota, S.K., 2015. "Adaptation of water and nitrogen management to future climates for sustaining potato yield in Minnesota: Field and simulation study," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 198-206.
    32. Adham, Ammar & Wesseling, Jan G. & Abed, Rasha & Riksen, Michel & Ouessar, Mohamed & Ritsema, Coen J., 2019. "Assessing the impact of climate change on rainwater harvesting in the Oum Zessar watershed in Southeastern Tunisia," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 221(C), pages 131-140.
    33. Bruce A. McCarl & Xavier Villavicencio & Ximing Wu, 2008. "Climate Change and Future Analysis: Is Stationarity Dying?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1241-1247.
    34. Acquah Henry De-graft & Kyei Clement Kweku, 2012. "The effects of climatic variables and crop area on maize yield and variability in Ghana," Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, CyberLeninka;Редакция журнала Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, vol. 10(10), pages 10-13.
    35. Oecd, 2009. "Climate Change and Africa," OECD Journal: General Papers, OECD Publishing, vol. 2009(1), pages 5-35.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wu, Di & Yang, Yuping & Shi, Yi & Xu, Meng & Zou, Wenjie, 2022. "Renewable energy resources, natural resources volatility and economic performance: Evidence from BRICS," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. repec:bba:j00006:v:1:y:2023:i:2:p:1-13:d:270 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Walaa Elnashar & Ahmed Elyamany, 2023. "Managing Risks of Climate Change on Irrigation Water in Arid Regions," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(6), pages 2429-2446, May.
    4. Naomi di Santo & Ilaria Russo & Roberta Sisto, 2022. "Climate Change and Natural Resource Scarcity: A Literature Review on Dry Farming," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(12), pages 1-25, November.
    5. Le, Thanh Ha, 2022. "Connectedness between nonrenewable and renewable energy consumption, economic growth and CO2 emission in Vietnam: New evidence from a wavelet analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 442-454.
    6. Riza Radmehr & Samira Shayanmehr & Ernest Baba Ali & Elvis Kwame Ofori & Elżbieta Jasińska & Michał Jasiński, 2022. "Exploring the Nexus of Renewable Energy, Ecological Footprint, and Economic Growth through Globalization and Human Capital in G7 Economics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.
    7. Radmehr, Riza & Henneberry, Shida Rastegari & Shayanmehr, Samira, 2021. "Renewable Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Economic Growth Nexus: A Simultaneity Spatial Modeling Analysis of EU Countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 13-27.
    8. Samira Shayanmehr & Jana Ivanič Porhajašová & Mária Babošová & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Hosein Mohammadi & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2022. "The Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and Crop Production in an Arid Region," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(7), pages 1-22, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Samira Shayanmehr & Shida Rastegari Henneberry & Mahmood Sabouhi Sabouni & Naser Shahnoushi Foroushani, 2020. "Drought, Climate Change, and Dryland Wheat Yield Response: An Econometric Approach," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-18, July.
    2. Raju Guntukula & Phanindra Goyari, 2020. "Climate Change Effects on the Crop Yield and Its Variability in Telangana, India," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 8(1), pages 119-148, June.
    3. Saumya Verma & Shreekant Gupta & Partha Sen, 2020. "Does climate change make foodgrain yields more unpredictable? Evidence from India," Working papers 305, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
    4. Zheng Li & Roderick M. Rejesus & Xiaoyong Zheng, 2021. "Nonparametric Estimation and Inference of Production Risk," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(5), pages 1857-1877, October.
    5. M. MEHEDI HASAN & Md. ABDUR RASHID SARKER & JEFF GOW, 2016. "Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Aman And Boro Rice Yields In Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-21, August.
    6. Gupta, Rishabh & Mishra, Ashok, 2019. "Climate change induced impact and uncertainty of rice yield of agro-ecological zones of India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 1-11.
    7. Jesse Tack & Ardian Harri & Keith Coble, 2012. "More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1037-1054.
    8. Mandal, Raju & Singha, Pratiti, 2020. "Impact of Climate Change on Average Yields and their Variability of the Principal Crops in Assam," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), September.
    9. Ali Sardar Shahraki & Tommaso Caloiero & Ommolbanin Bazrafshan, 2023. "Influence of Climatic Factors on Yields of Pistachio, Mango, and Bananas in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-14, June.
    10. Li, Zheng & Rejesus, Roderick M. & Zheng, Xiaoyong, 2018. "Nonparametric Estimation and Inference of Production Risk with Categorical Variables," 2018 Annual Meeting, August 5-7, Washington, D.C. 274400, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    12. Hasan, M. Mehedi & Alauddin, Mohammad & Rashid Sarker, Md. Abdur & Jakaria, Mohammad & Alamgir, Mahiuddin, 2019. "Climate sensitivity of wheat yield in Bangladesh: Implications for the United Nations sustainable development goals 2 and 6," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    13. Sabrina Auci & Donatella Vignani, 2020. "Climate variability and agriculture in Italy: a stochastic frontier analysis at the regional level," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 37(2), pages 381-409, July.
    14. Luigi Biagini & Simone Severini, 2022. "How Does the Farmer Strike a Balance between Income and Risk across Inputs? An Application in Italian Field Crop Farms," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-15, December.
    15. Tsegaye Ginbo, 2022. "Heterogeneous impacts of climate change on crop yields across altitudes in Ethiopia," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 170(1), pages 1-21, January.
    16. Catherine Benjamin & Ewen Gallic, 2017. "Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture: a European case study," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes & University of Caen) 2017-16, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes, University of Caen and CNRS.
    17. Byela Tibesigwa & Martine Visser & Jane Turpie, 2017. "Climate change and South Africa’s commercial farms: an assessment of impacts on specialised horticulture, crop, livestock and mixed farming systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 607-636, April.
    18. V. Saravanakumar, "undated". "Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Major Food Crops in Tamil Nadu, India," Working papers 91, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    19. Salvatore Falco & Marcella Veronesi, 2018. "Managing Environmental Risk in Presence of Climate Change: The Role of Adaptation in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia," Natural Resource Management and Policy, in: Leslie Lipper & Nancy McCarthy & David Zilberman & Solomon Asfaw & Giacomo Branca (ed.), Climate Smart Agriculture, pages 497-526, Springer.
    20. Zeenatul Islam & Mohammad Alauddin & Md. Abdur Rashid Sarker, 2017. "Farmers’ perception on climate change-driven rice production loss in drought-prone and groundwater-depleted areas of Bangladesh: An ordered probit analysis," Discussion Papers Series 579, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:12:y:2020:i:23:p:9890-:d:451552. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.