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Zur Rückkehr der Machtpolitik in Handelsfragen: Theoretische Überlegungen und politische Empfehlungen

Author

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  • Felbermayr Gabriel J.

    (Ludwig Maximilians Universität München und ifo Institut, Poschingerstraße 5, 81679 MünchenLudwig Maximilians Universität Münchenifo InstitutPoschingerstraße 581679 MünchenGermany)

Abstract
Opportunistische Regierungen haben vielfache Anreize, unilateral vom Freihandel abzuweichen, zum Beispiel um ihre Terms of trade zu verbessern. Doch was individuell rational sein mag, führt kollektiv in eine Situation, in der alle Länder schlechter gestellt sind, und aus der sie nur schwer herausfinden. Die neuere Forschung zeigt, dass es das Prinzip der Reziprozität im GATT/WTO-System ermöglicht hat, aus diesem Gefangenendilemma auszubrechen. Das Prinzip stellt sicher, dass bei Zollsenkungen die Terms of trade der Länder konstant bleiben, so dass alle Beteiligten profitieren. Reziprozität bedeutet auch, dass der Bruch von Vereinbarungen durch streng reglementierte „Gegenzölle“ kompensiert werden darf. Die glaubwürdige Drohung mit solchen Maßnahmen ist das einzige Mittel, opportunistisches Verhalten in Schach zu halten und die Stabilität der multilateralen Ordnung zu bewahren. Daher ist es auch richtig, dass die EU auf die unter dem Vorwand der Bedrohung der nationalen Sicherheit erhobenen amerikanischen Zölle auf Stahl und Aluminium mit maßvollen Vergeltungszöllen reagiert hat.

Suggested Citation

  • Felbermayr Gabriel J., 2018. "Zur Rückkehr der Machtpolitik in Handelsfragen: Theoretische Überlegungen und politische Empfehlungen," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 19(3), pages 232-244, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pewipo:v:19:y:2018:i:3:p:232-244:n:6
    DOI: 10.1515/pwp-2018-0027
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    Cited by:

    1. Berend Diekmann, 2020. "Globale Handelsordnung — mit den oder ohne die USA?," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(5), pages 324-328, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Handelspolitik; Optimalzolltheorie; Spieltheorie;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F55 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Institutional Arrangements
    • C71 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Cooperative Games

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