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‘Chimerica’ and the Global Asset Market Boom

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  • Niall Ferguson
  • Moritz Schularick
Abstract
Over the past five years the world has witnessed a spectacular boom in asset prices. This paper reviews different explanations for this phenomenon, and argues that future financial historians will point to the divergence between high returns on capital and the low cost of capital, not to excess liquidity or asset shortage, as the driving force in global asset markets. The integration of the massive Asian labour force into the world economy has significantly increased global returns on capital while the cost of capital as measured by long‐term real interest rates has not increased, but has actually fallen. We label this two‐sided phenomenon ‘Chimerica’ because it is in large measure consequence of the symbiotic economic relationship that has developed between the People's Republic of China and the United States of America. Not only has plentiful Chinese and Asian labour increased global returns to capital; Chinese excess savings have also depressed US and global interest rates. We show that the Chinese ‘savings glut’ was not primarily a function of precautionary household behaviour, but of surging corporate profits in China due to increasing exchange rate undervaluation.

Suggested Citation

  • Niall Ferguson & Moritz Schularick, 2007. "‘Chimerica’ and the Global Asset Market Boom," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 215-239, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:10:y:2007:i:3:p:215-239
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2362.2007.00210.x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Luigi Bonatti & Andrea Fracasso, 2009. "The evolution of the Sino-American Co-dependency: modelling a regime switch in a growth setting," Department of Economics Working Papers 0905, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    3. Laura Barbosa de Carvalho, 2012. "Current Account Imbalances and Economic Growth: a two-country model with real-financial linkages," Working Papers 1203, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    4. Bo Chen & Hong Ma & David S. Jacks, 2017. "Revisiting the Effective Rate of Protection in the Late Stages of Chinese Industrialisation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(2), pages 424-438, February.
    5. Broich, T. & Szirmai, A., 2014. "China's economic embrace of Africa: An international comparative perspective," MERIT Working Papers 2014-049, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    6. Xiang Xu & Alice Siqi Han, 2018. "Will China Collapse: A Review, Assessment And Outlook," Economics Working Papers 18104, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    7. Kevin Daly, 2016. "A Secular Increase in the Equity Risk Premium," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 179-200, June.
    8. Tara Sinclair & Yeuqing Jia, 2010. "Permanent and Transitory Macroeconomic Relationships between China and the Developed World," Working Papers 2010-08, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    9. Schularick Moritz, 2010. "Touching the Brakes after the Crash: A Historical View of Reserve Accumulation and Financial Integration," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-13, January.
    10. Kyung Soo Kim & Hyoung‐Kyu Chey, 2010. "Some Salient Issues Raised By The Global Financial Crisis," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 1-10, February.
    11. Ying Wu & Xin Deng, 2022. "Macroeconomic Impacts of the US External Imbalances with Two Large Emerging Asian Economies: Japan (1970–1990) versus China (2000–2018)," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(2), pages 255-279, June.

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