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Financial Crises And International Stock Market Volatility Transmission

Author

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  • INDIKA KARUNANAYAKE
  • ABBAS VALADKHANI
  • MARTIN O'BRIEN
Abstract
This paper examines the interplay between stock market returns and their volatility, focusing on the Asian and global financial crises of 1997–98 and 2008–09 for Australia, Singapore, the UK, and the US. We use a multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model and weekly data (January 1992–June 2009). Based on the results obtained from the mean return equations, we could not find any significant impact on returns arising from the Asian crisis and more recent global financial crises across these four markets. However, both crises significantly increased the stock return volatilities across all of the four markets. Not surprisingly, it is also found that the US stock market is the most crucial market impacting on the volatilities of smaller economies such as Australia. Our results provide evidence of own and cross ARCH and GARCH effects among all four markets, suggesting the existence of significant volatility and cross volatility spillovers across all four markets. A high degree of time‐varying co‐volatility among these markets indicates that investors will be highly unlikely to benefit from diversifying their financial portfolio by acquiring stocks within these four countries only.

Suggested Citation

  • Indika Karunanayake & Abbas Valadkhani & Martin O'Brien, 2010. "Financial Crises And International Stock Market Volatility Transmission," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 49(3), pages 209-221, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:49:y:2010:i:3:p:209-221
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-8454.2010.00397.x
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    4. Gimeno, Ruth & Andreu, Laura & Sarto, José Luis, 2022. "Fund trading divergence and performance contribution," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    5. Huijian Dong, 2017. "Asynchronous Signaling in Global Equity Markets：Based on Opening Times," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(8), pages 173-191, August.
    6. Ali, Sara & Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza, 2023. "Anti-herding by hedge funds and its implications for expected returns," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 31-48.
    7. Hou, Yang (Greg) & Li, Steven, 2020. "Volatility and skewness spillover between stock index and stock index futures markets during a crash period: New evidence from China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 166-188.
    8. Balcilar, Mehmet & Demirer, Rıza & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2014. "What drives herding in oil-rich, developing stock markets? Relative roles of own volatility and global factors," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 418-440.
    9. Chortareas, Georgios & Cipollini, Andrea & Eissa, Mohamed Abdelaziz, 2012. "Switching to floating exchange rates, devaluations, and stock returns in MENA countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 119-127.
    10. Bruce Q. Budd, 2018. "The transmission of international stock market volatilities," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(1), pages 155-173, January.
    11. Ferreruela, Sandra & Mallor, Tania, 2021. "Herding in the bad times: The 2008 and COVID-19 crises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    12. Talla M Aldeehani, 2019. "Have Stock Markets Become Less Volatile After the Great Recession?," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 10(3), pages 10-25, December.
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