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Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation

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  • Ricardo Reis
Abstract
With the profusion of measures of expected inflation (from market prices and from surveys of households, firms, and professionals), it is a mistake to focus on a single one while ignoring the others. This paper discusses four common arguments for a single focus and finds each of them to be lacking. In the process, it isolates characteristics of different measures that models that combine them should take into account.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Reis, 2023. "Four Mistakes in the Use of Measures of Expected Inflation," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 47-51, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:113:y:2023:p:47-51
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20231033
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ricardo Reis, 2022. "Expected Inflation in the Euro Area: Measurement and Policy Responses," Discussion Papers 2301, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Yotzov & Nicholas Bloom & Philip Bunn & Paul Mizen & Gregory Thwaites, 2024. "The Speed of Firm Response to Inflation," Discussion Papers 2425, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).

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      More about this item

      JEL classification:

      • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
      • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
      • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
      • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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