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on Environmental Economics |
| By: | Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline (PSE - Paris School of Economics, UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne); Mouez Fodha (PSE - Paris School of Economics, UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne); Yassine Kirat (PSE - Paris School of Economics, UP1 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Among the ten countries with the highest carbon intensity, six are natural resource-rich countries. This suggests the existence of a carbon curse: resource-rich countries would tend to follow more carbon-intensive development paths than resource-poor countries. We investigate this assumption empirically using a panel data method covering 29 countries (OECD and BRIC) and seven sectors over the 1995-2009 period. First, at the macroeconomic level, we find that the relationship between national CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP and abundance in natural resources is U-shaped. The carbon curse appears only after the turning point. Second, we measure the impact of resource abundance on sectoral emissions for two groups of countries based on their resource endowments. We show that a country rich in natural resources pollutes relatively more in resource-related sectors as well as all other sectors. Our results suggest that the debate on climate change mitigation should rather focus on a comparison of resource-rich countries versus resource-poor countries than the developed-country versus developing-country debate. |
| Keywords: | carbon curse,carbon intensity,resource-rich economies |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02902393&r=all |
| By: | Tancrède Voituriez (UMR ART-Dev - Acteurs, Ressources et Territoires dans le Développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - UM3 - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - UPVD - Université de Perpignan Via Domitia - UM - Université de Montpellier - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Cirad-ES - Département Environnements et Sociétés - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, IDDRI - Institut du Développement Durable et des Relations Internationales - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Paris, WIL - World Inequality Lab) |
| Abstract: | In 2015, the world nations agreed to tackle the "two greatest challenges of our century" to paraphrase Nick Stern (2009) – namely growing inequality and climate change. They signed up the Agenda 2030 and endorsed its 17 sustainable development goals (SDGs), thereby committing to shift development patterns towards sustainable paths. The same year, the Paris Agreement on climate change was celebrated as a breakthrough in environmental governance, marking a watershed between an old world suffocating under fossil-fuel pollution, and a green new world matching the economic aspiration of a growing world middle class within a ‘safe operating space for humanity' (Steffen et al., 2015). The transition from one world to the other is not part of any handbook however, nor was it laid out in companion texts to the SDGs and the Paris Agreement. The recipe for turning coal, oil and gas into carbon-free watts and joules while curbing the seemingly irresistible rise of income and wealth inequalities seems as coveted as were alchemist formulae to turn sand into gold a few centuries ago. The practicality of the transition remains debatable, as global inequality and CO2 emissions seem stubbornly stuck to their long-term rising trend (Wid, 2018 ; Carbon Tracker Institute, 2019). To tackle the magnitude of inequality and environmental intertwined challenges, some scholars framed the concept of green welfare state or "ecostate" almost twenty years ago. They called for a transformation of the welfare state as we know it in most of OECD countries into a governance system supplying the insurance mechanisms and public goods and services to cope with environmental degradation and shocks. This paper is a quest of emerging ecostate in existing literature, and in most recent data. The first section presents a literature review on welfare state and ecostate, and on the expected transition from one to the other. In section two, we update Wood and Gough (2006) typology on welfare regimes to include the most recent available data covering income inequalities and environmental performance. We conduct an empirical multivariate analysis and come up with four distinct type of ecostates: unequal, super unequal, balanced and insecure. We focus in sections four and five on the particular case of insecure ecostates, which gathers a large share of emerging economies. Taking Nigeria as an example, we delineate the characteristics of ecostate insecurity and possible way forward, drawing on ongoing in-house research made in this country. Research gaps and bridging initiatives are hinted at in conclusion. |
| Keywords: | climate change adaptation,Nigeria,insecurity,environment,green welfare states,ecostates,developing countries,inequality |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:wilwps:hal-02876972&r=all |
| By: | Tensay Meles; L. (Lisa B.) Ryan; Joe Wheatley |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 crisis comes at a complex moment for European climate policy as it pivots from a 40% 2030 emissions reduction target to a European Green Deal that is in better alignment with long-term Paris Agreement goals. Here, the implications of the dramatic fall in economic output associated with the crisis are examined using a representative range of growth scenarios. With lower economic activity resulting from the COVID-19 crisis, existing policy measures could achieve the 40% target sooner than 2030. However, we find that even in the most severe economic scenario examined, this falls well short of the 50-55% emissions reduction target under the Green Deal. Maintaining the existing 40% target in 2030 with reduced policy measures on the other hand would move European climate policy away from the required path. This analysis indicates the feasibility of increased climate ambition in the wake of the pandemic and supports the Green Deal 50-55% targets in 2030. |
| Keywords: | Climate change policy; Greenhouse gas emissions; Economic recovery; COVID-19 economic effects; Energy demand |
| JEL: | Q5 Q54 Q58 E6 Q43 |
| Date: | 2020–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:202012&r=all |
| By: | Tamma A. Carleton; Amir Jina; Michael T. Delgado; Michael Greenstone; Trevor Houser; Solomon M. Hsiang; Andrew Hultgren; Robert E. Kopp; Kelly E. McCusker; Ishan B. Nath; James Rising; Ashwin Rode; Hee Kwon Seo; Arvid Viaene; Jiacan Yuan; Alice Tianbo Zhang |
| Abstract: | This paper develops the first globally comprehensive and empirically grounded estimates of mortality risk due to future temperature increases caused by climate change. Using 40 countries' subnational data, we estimate age-specific mortality-temperature relationships that enable both extrapolation to countries without data and projection into future years while accounting for adaptation. We uncover a U-shaped relationship where extreme cold and hot temperatures increase mortality rates, especially for the elderly, that is flattened by both higher incomes and adaptation to local climate (e.g., robust heating systems in cold climates and cooling systems in hot climates). Further, we develop a revealed preference approach to recover unobserved adaptation costs. We combine these components with 33 high-resolution climate simulations that together capture scientific uncertainty about the degree of future temperature change. Under a high emissions scenario, we estimate the mean increase in mortality risk is valued at roughly 3.2% of global GDP in 2100, with today's cold locations benefiting and damages being especially large in today's poor and/or hot locations. Finally, we estimate that the release of an additional ton of CO2 today will cause mean [interquartile range] damages of $36.6 [-$7.8, $73.0] under a high emissions scenario and $17.1 [-$24.7, $53.6] under a moderate scenario, using a 2% discount rate that is justified by US Treasury rates over the last two decades. Globally, these empirically grounded estimates substantially exceed the previous literature's estimates that lacked similar empirical grounding, suggesting that revision of the estimated economic damage from climate change is warranted. |
| JEL: | Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27599&r=all |
| By: | Shahbaz, Muhammad; Nasir, Muhammad Ali; Hille, Erik; Kumar, Mantu |
| Abstract: | The 4th industrial revolution and global decarbonisation are frequently referred to as two, interrelated megatrends. In particular, the former, technological revolution is expected to fundamentally change the economy, society, and financial systems, and may also create opportunities towards a zero-carbon future. Therefore, in the presence of the UK’s legally binding commitment to achieve a net-zero emissions target by 2050, we analyse the role of economic growth, R&D expenditures, financial development, and energy consumption in causing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Our analysis is based on historical annual data from 1870 to 2017, thereby employing the bootstrapping bounds testing approach to examine short- and long-run relationships. The results suggest the existence of cointegration between CO2 emissions and its determinants. Financial development and energy consumption lead to environmental degradation, but R&D expenditures help reducing CO2 emissions. The estimated environmental effects of economic growth support the EKC hypothesis. While a U-shaped relationship is depicted between financial development and CO2 emissions, the nexus between R&D expenditures and CO2 emissions is analogues to the EKC. In the context of the efforts to tackle climate change, our findings suggest policy prescriptions by using financial development and R&D expenditures as key tools to meet the emissions target. |
| Keywords: | CO2 Emissions, Economic Growth, Financial Development, R&D Expenditures, Net-zero Emissions |
| JEL: | Q5 |
| Date: | 2020–07–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102022&r=all |
| By: | Bertsch, Valentin; Di Cosmo, Valeria |
| Abstract: | The European Union has set ambitious targets for expanding renewable energy to meet emission reduction goals. After a period of subsidy-driven investments, the costs of renewables decreased strongly and renewable support schemes shift towards more market-based approaches. We therefore analyse the market-based profitability of wind onshore and offshore and solar PV across Europe to determine where it is optimal to invest and understand which factors drive the profitability of investments. We use a power systems model to simulate the whole European electricity market in 2030. Using the renewables’ revenues determined by the model, we calculate the profitability of each technology in each country. We also analyse how effective renewables are in terms of emission reduction. Investments are found not to be homogeneously profitable across Europe, i.e. cooperation between European countries can be expected to achieve the overall targets at lower costs than nationally-driven approaches. We also find that in many countries, wind onshore and solar PV are profitable by 2030 in absence of any financial support, whereas wind offshore does never seem profitable without support. Finally, RES expansion alone will not guarantee an effective reduction of CO2 emissions. |
| Keywords: | Renewable Energy; Renewable Energy Target; Renewable Electricity Target; EU Electricity Market; Profitability; Emission Reduction; Carbon Price; Carbon Price Floor |
| JEL: | Q42 Q52 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–07–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:101822&r=all |
| By: | Isaksen, Elisabeth Thuestad |
| Abstract: | Evaluating the effectiveness of international agreements is inherently difficult due to problems such as self-selection, spillovers, anticipation effects, and aggregate-level data. In this paper, I provide new and arguably more credible estimates on the effects of three major pollution protocols on SO2, NOx, and VOC emissions. I do so by combining a newly available global dataset on emissions dating back to 1970 with a generalized version of the synthetic control method. By constructing “synthetic” controls that mimic the pre-treatment development of each affected country, I mitigate bias caused by self-selection and non-parallel emission trends. The broader data coverage - both geographically and over time - allows me to examine the importance of spillovers and anticipation effects. Results from the estimation show that all three protocols induced emissions reductions well beyond a (synthetic) counterfactual development. |
| Keywords: | Emissions; International environmental agreements; Pollution; Synthetic control method; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment; Research Council of Norway (grant 215831) |
| JEL: | Q53 Q58 F53 |
| Date: | 2020–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:105812&r=all |
| By: | Romain Espinosa (CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREM - Centre de recherche en économie et management - UNICAEN - Université de Caen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - UR1 - Université de Rennes 1 - UNIV-RENNES - Université de Rennes - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Damian Tago (Emergency Centre for Transboundary Animal Diseases, Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN); Nicolas Treich (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Most infectious diseases in humans originate from animals. In this paper, we explore the role of animal farming and meat consumption in the emergence and amplification of infectious diseases. First, we discuss how meat production increases epidemic risks, either directly through increased contact with wild and farmed animals or indirectly through its impact on the environment (e.g., biodiversity loss, water use, climate change). Traditional food systems such as bushmeat and backyard farming increase the risks of disease transmission from wild animals, while intensive farming amplifies the impact of the disease due to the high density, genetic proximity, increased immunodeficiency, and live transport of farmed animals. Second, we describe the various direct and indirect costs of animal-based infectious diseases, and in particular, how these diseases can negatively impact the economy and the environment. Last, we discuss policies to reduce the social costs of infectious diseases. While existing regulatory frameworks such as the "One Health" approach focus on increasing farms' biosecurity and emergency preparedness, we emphasize the need to better align stakeholders' incentives and to reduce meat consumption. We discuss in particular the implementation of a "zoonotic" Pigouvian tax, and innovations such as insect-based food or cultured meat. |
| Keywords: | Infectious diseases,meat production,meat consumption,biodiversity,prevention,intensive farming,regulation,taxation |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02891997&r=all |
| By: | Fabian Stöckl |
| Abstract: | When analyzing potential ways to counter climate change, standard models of green growth abstract from investment in substitutability between “clean” and “dirty” energy inputs. Instead, they rely on the assumption that efficiency with respect to fossil fuels can be increased perpetually. However, this is not in line with observed firm investment behavior and the limits to efficiency imposed by thermodynamic laws. In this paper, I develop a growth model that explicitly accounts for endogenous investment to increase input substitutability, in addition to investment in efficiency. The model predicts that, for a growing economy, there is always investment in both substitutability and efficiency, even without a carbon cap and with non-infinite fossil fuel prices. Most importantly, in the long-run, with sufficient investment in substitutability, fossil fuels become inessential for production. Moreover, the model predicts a declining income share of fossil fuels, an outcome not featured by standard models based on purely efficiency-enhancing technological progress. Overall, the model generates an endogenous path of transition from an economy characterized by a low elasticity of substitution to one characterized by a high elasticity. In doing so, it still nests the results derived from a purely efficiency-based directed technical change framework as a special case. In addition, this paper analyzes the scope for policy intervention, showing that even a temporary subsidy/tax can trigger a full transformation toward green growth. |
| Keywords: | Elasticity of substitution, endogenous (sigma-augmenting) technological change, growth, investment incentives, climate policy, decarbonization |
| JEL: | Q20 Q30 O30 O40 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1886&r=all |
| By: | Maxime Menuet; Alexandru Minea; Patrick Villieu; Anastasios Xepapadeas |
| Abstract: | The relationship between economic growth and the environment is at the core of the theoretical and empirical researches since at least thirty years. This paper shows that a small-dimension ecological growth model can lead to a great diversity of relationships between pollution and growth, including the popular environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and logistic curve (ELC). We exhibit multiple equilibria and complex local and global dynamics resulting in potential indeterminacy or long-lasting pollution cycles. Furthermore, our model reveals an ecological poverty trap associated with a possible irreversibility of the environmental degradation. Interestingly, our findings do not resort on some exogenous technological breaks but result from the endogenous interaction between households� saving behaviour and the natural resources' law of motion. |
| Keywords: | Growth, Environment, Bifurcation, Endogenous Cycles, Poverty Traps, Pollution |
| JEL: | E32 O44 Q50 |
| Date: | 2020–08–27 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aue:wpaper:2031&r=all |
| By: | Cloé Garnache; Pierre Mérel |
| Abstract: | This paper derives the incidence of a pollution tax in a stylized general equilibrium framework, building on previous work by Fullerton and Heutel (2007a). Using the CPI as numeraire, we show that tax incidence is a simpler problem than previously thought, and that general insights can be derived without the need to restrict the parameter space. In addition, the counter-intuitive possibility that an increase in the tax could lead to worse pollution outcomes vanishes. The choice of the CPI as numeraire is further justified by the fact that environmental taxes, for instance carbon taxes, are typically indexed on inflation. |
| Keywords: | tax incidence, general equilibrium, relative prices, numeraire |
| JEL: | Q52 H23 H22 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8354&r=all |
| By: | Adler, David (Carnegie Mellon University); Severnini, Edson R. (Carnegie Mellon University) |
| Abstract: | Ground-level ozone has been shown to have significant health consequences from short-term exposure, and as such has been regulated in the U.S. since the 1970s by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Ozone is not emitted directly; instead formation occurs due to a complex, Leontief-like combination of air pollutants and sunlight that results in high levels mid-day and low levels at night. Despite this known relationship, EPA regulations only consider the total emissions of ozone precursors and not when these emissions occur. Using hourly data on ambient ozone from 1980-2017 near the U.S. time zone borders, we provide evidence that the 1-hour time difference on either side of a border leads to a nontrivial change in ozone levels over the course of the day. We then examine a cap-and-trade program targeting ozone precursor emissions – the NOx Budget Program – finding that while it reduced ozone overall it did not have an economically significant effect on shifting when these emissions occurred. We conclude by outlining a possible policy solution to account for the time value of reductions in precursor emissions. |
| Keywords: | ambient ozone concentration, timing of ozone precursor emissions, time zone border, shifting economic activity, NOx Budget Program (NBP) |
| JEL: | Q53 Q58 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13428&r=all |
| By: | Enrico Mallucci |
| Abstract: | I investigate how natural disaster can exacerbate fiscal vulnerabilities and trigger sovereign defaults. I extend a standard sovereign default model to include disaster risk and calibrate it to a sample of seven Caribbean countries that are frequently hit by hurricanes. I find that hurricane risk reduces government's ability to issue debt and that climate change may further restrict market access. Next, I show that "disaster clauses", that provide debt-servicing relief, improve government ability to borrow and mitigate the adverse impact of climate change on government's borrowing conditions. |
| Keywords: | Sovereign risk; Climate change; Natural disasters |
| JEL: | F32 F34 Q54 |
| Date: | 2020–07–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedgif:1291&r=all |
| By: | Fusillo, Fabrizio (University of Turin) |
| Abstract: | A large body of existing literature extensively studied the economic deter-minants and effects of environmental innovations. However, only a few studiesanalyzed the specific features of green technologies in the early phasesof theinvention process. The aim of this paper is to investigate knowledgerecombi-nation patterns in the green domain. The focus is on identifying whether andhow different bodies of technology are combined and integrated. Exploitinga large sample of European patent data, from 1980 to 2012, the paper inves-tigates the degree of diversity in the knowledge sources and the generationphase of green inventions. Using the Integration Score as an index of techno-logical diversity we compare the recombinant features of Green Technologieswith a control sample of “Traditional Technologies†, accurately drawn fromthe universe of all patent applications. Empirical results suggest that, aftercontrolling for a number of typical characteristics which may affect diversity,Green Technologies systematically show a higher degree of diversitywhencompared to non-green ones. |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uto:dipeco:202015&r=all |
| By: | Thilini V. Mahanama; Abootaleb Shirvani |
| Abstract: | Natural disasters, such as tornadoes, floods, and wildfire pose risks to life and property, requiring the intervention of insurance corporations. One of the most visible consequences of changing climate is an increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. The relative strengths of these disasters are far beyond the habitual seasonal maxima, often resulting in subsequent increases in property losses. Thus, insurance policies should be modified to endure increasingly volatile catastrophic weather events. We propose a Natural Disasters Index (NDI) for the property losses caused by natural disasters in the United States based on the "Storm Data" published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The proposed NDI is an attempt to construct a financial instrument for hedging the intrinsic risk. The NDI is intended to forecast the degree of future risk that could forewarn the insurers and corporations allowing them to transfer insurance risk to capital market investors. This index could also be modified to other regions and countries. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2008.03672&r=all |
| By: | Vadim A. Karatayev; V\'itor V. Vasconcelos; Anne-Sophie Lafuite; Simon A. Levin; Chris T. Bauch; Madhur Anand |
| Abstract: | Recent attempts at cooperating on climate change mitigation highlight the limited efficacy of large-scale agreements, when commitment to mitigation is costly and initially rare. Bottom-up approaches using region-specific mitigation agreements promise greater success, at the cost of slowing global adoption. Here, we show that a well-timed switch from regional to global negotiations dramatically accelerates climate mitigation compared to using only local, only global, or both agreement types simultaneously. This highlights the scale-specific roles of mitigation incentives: local incentives capitalize on regional differences (e.g., where recent disasters incentivize mitigation) by committing early-adopting regions, after which global agreements draw in late-adopting regions. We conclude that global agreements are key to overcoming the expenses of mitigation and economic rivalry among regions but should be attempted once regional agreements are common. Gradually up-scaling efforts could likewise accelerate mitigation at smaller scales, for instance when costly ecosystem restoration initially faces limited public and legislative support. |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2007.13238&r=all |
| By: | International Monetary Fund |
| Abstract: | Tonga is one of the world’s most exposed countries to climate change and natural disasters. It suffered the highest loss from natural disasters in the world (as a ratio to GDP) in 2018 and is among the top five over the last decade (Table 1). Climate change will make this worse. Cyclones will become more intense, with more damage from wind and sea surges. Rising sea levels will cause more flooding, coastal erosion and contaminate fresh water. Daily high temperatures will become more extreme, with more severe floods and drought. |
| Keywords: | Economic reforms;Economic growth;Financial management;Public financial management;Poverty;ISCR,CR,NIIP,development partner,disaster risk,post-disaster,emergency fund |
| Date: | 2020–06–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfscr:2020/212&r=all |
| By: | Sanghamitra Mukherjee; Séin Healy; Tensay Meles; L. (Lisa B.) Ryan; Robert Mooney; Lindsay Sharpe; Paul Hayes |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to understand what motivates the adoption of key renewable energy technologies (RET) in early adopter markets. Electrification of heat and transport, through the deployment of heat pumps, electric vehicles and solar photovoltaic panels, combined with renewable sources of electricity is a key strategy for policymakers to combat climate change. Notwithstanding their social benefits, uptake remains low. Thus, targeted policy measures are needed to address this. We conduct a survey of a nationally representative sample of Irish households to better understand the motivations behind RET adoption and find fundamental differences between adopters and non-adopters. Current adopters tend to be younger, highly educated, of higher socio-economic status, and are likely to live in newer buildings of generous size. While non-adopters self-report as being more sustainable, adopters appear to be stronger believers that their own decisions impact climate change. Thus, environmental attitudes are an insufficient predictor of uptake. Instead, poor understanding of new technologies often inhibits uptake. Word-of-mouth recommendation matters greatly in communicating the use and benefits of new technology as evident from the significantly larger social networks that adopters enjoy. With this information, a range of monetary and non-monetary policy incentives can be designed according to public preferences. |
| Keywords: | Household survey; Technology adoption policy; Heat pumps; Solar PV; Electric vehicles; Consumer behaviour |
| JEL: | D1 D9 O3 Q4 |
| Date: | 2020–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:202004&r=all |
| By: | Hewitt, Richard J; Compagnucci, Andrea Baggio; Castellazzi, Marie; Dunford, Rob W.; Harrison, Paula A.; Pedde, Simona; Gimona, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | Current estimates suggest that the world is on track for ~3°C of heating relative to pre-industrial levels by 2100. This is likely to bring great disruption to earth systems, leading to increased natural hazard risks, crop failures, civil unrest and population migration. There is, however, a high degree of uncertainty about the impacts that such events may have on land use and ecosystems in individual countries. Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) of scenarios like the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) offers one way to address this uncertainty, allowing outcomes such as the relative land cover under food production or forestry to be compared for each scenario. However, global and continental-scale IAMs need to be complemented by landscape scale spatial modelling to inform national and regional policy making. In this paper, we demonstrate impacts and trade-offs of future land cover change in Scotland, a UK region with a high degree of political autonomy, using downscaled SSPs from Europe to the national and finally the regional level. Our methods integrate participatory knowledge co-construction approaches with land-use modelling. Firstly, a stakeholder workshop held in November 2018 led to the development of detailed narratives for 5 UK SSPs. Two contrasting UK SSPs, SSP1 (Sustainability), and SSP5 (Fossil-Fuelled Development) were then adapted to the case of Scotland and simulated to the year 2040 using a land use change model (APoLUS). Land use demands for each scenario were quantified based on historical tendencies, narrative information derived from the workshop, and future Scottish Government targets. Results highlight trade-offs between forest cover, grasslands, natural areas including marginal peatlands important for carbon sequestration, and cropland for food production and the drinks industry. We discuss these preliminary findings, highlight key areas of uncertainty and present pathways for future work. |
| Date: | 2020–06–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fc6he&r=all |
| By: | Medel-Ramírez, Carlos; Medel-López, Hilario |
| Abstract: | The present proposal is an approach to the vision, cosmogony and philosophy of the Totonacapan people, and particularly with the inhabitants of the Totonacapan region in Veracruz Mexico, a town whose wisdom is manifested to this day, in the conservation of customs and traditions, as well as the hierarchy of collective desire that seeks health, well-being and peace in the region, are guides in the evolution of their cultural processes, where a closeness, respectful and deep with Mother Nature stands out. This wisdom by the Council of Elders, transmitted to the new generations, by the Supreme Council of Totonacapan who seek share the basis to understand and conceive the current world, from the ancestral vision and cosmogony to identify their space, thought, spirituality and in the building your social context. In the Totonacapan region, the first pre-hispanic population concentrations were located around 1259 to 1311. Already by the year 1450, there is a record of incursions and the conquest of Totonaca territory, by the Mexica, establishing a relationship of domain and subordination. As a result of the presence of "Mexica" in the Totonaco territory, there was an imposition of customs and language, since in some areas they begin to speak in Nahuatl, resulting in the presence of a bilingualism (Nahuatl-Totonac) , situation that persists, until the encounter with the Spaniards in the year of 1519. At present, the Totonacapan region includes the area that extends from the Cazones River to the north, to the towns of Gutiérrez Zamora and Tecolutla, in the State of Veracruz in Mexico. The importance of the document is that it constitutes an invitation to deepen and understand the vision of the inhabitants of Totonacapan, in the construction of their social context and their connection with nature, as part of an ancient culture, which creates and recreates their vision, in the search for the feeling of belonging and as an inheritance of the children of thunder (Tajin), as well as the need to preserve the benefits that nature itself offers them, seeking a peaceful and harmonious coexistence, in the social and environmental environment. However, the preservation of its history, tradition and philosophy of life, contrast with public policy strategies, particularly in the social sphere, and which are aimed at achieving economic development in the fight against multidimensional poverty and marginalization, all Once they have not incorporated into them, the feeling and living of the relationship between individual and nature, as the guiding axis, of the philosophy of the Totonacapan people. What is sustainability for the people of Totonacapan? What is social justice in the search for sustainability? And what is your concept of justice in sustainability and human development? From the vision and philosophy of the people of Totonacapan, as part of the history and tradition of the children of thunder “Tajin” and in whose worldview, he is responsible for regulating the rain, climate and life of the people of the region. How does the people of Totonacapan live and live in the face of the maelstrom of actions that, from public policy, that seek human development? How do you adjust, your way of life and how do you adapt to the requirements, which from the perspective of justice, are required to contribute to the objectives of the 2030 development agenda? This document is an effort to learn and recognize one of the most important millenary cultures in Mexico, in the construction of a more inclusive vision of the social development of the Totonacapan people, which invites us to reflect on the direction and scope of this response. |
| Keywords: | Sustainability, Justice, Poverty, Capabilities approach, Totonacapan |
| JEL: | A14 A19 C00 I30 I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2020–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102172&r=all |
| By: | Elías Cisnerosy; Krisztina Kis-Katosz; Nunung Nuryartono |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the interactions between political and economic incentives to foster forest conversion in Indonesian districts. Using a district–level panel data set from 2001 to 2016, we analyze variation in remotely sensed forest loss and forest fires as well as measures of land use licensing. We link these outcomes to economic incentives to expand oil palm cultivation areas as well as political incentives arising before idiosyncratically–timed local mayoral elections. Empirical results documentsubstantial increases in deforestation and forest fires in the year prior to local elections.Additionally, oil palm plays a crucial role in driving deforestation dynamics. Variations in global market prices of palm oil are closely linked to deforestation inareas which are geo-climatically best suited for growing oil palm and they amplify the importance of the political cycle. We thus find clear evidence for economic and political incentives reinforcing each other as drivers of forest loss and land conversion for oil palm cultivation. |
| JEL: | O13 Q15 Q56 P16 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:825&r=all |
| By: | Isphording, Ingo E. (IZA); Pestel, Nico (IZA) |
| Abstract: | We study the impact of short-term exposure to ambient air pollution on the spread and severity of COVID-19 in Germany. We combine data on county-by-day level on confirmed cases and deaths with information on local air quality and weather conditions and exploit short-term variation in the concentration of particulate matter (PM10) and ozone (O3). We apply fixed effects regressions controlling for global time-varying confounding factors and regional time-invariant confounding factors on the county level, as well as potentially confounding weather conditions and the regional stage of the pandemic. We find significant positive effects of PM10 concentration after the onset of the illness on COVID-19 deaths specifically for elderly patients (80+ years): higher levels of air pollution by one standard deviation 3 to 12 days after developing symptoms increase deaths by 30 percent (males) and 35 percent (females) of the mean. In addition, air pollution raises the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. The timing of results supports mechanisms of air pollution affecting the severity of already realized infections. Air pollution appears not to affect the probability of infection itself. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, health, air pollution, Germany |
| JEL: | I12 I18 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp13418&r=all |
| By: | Ariel Ortiz-Bobea; Toby R. Ault; Carlos M. Carrillo; Robert G. Chambers; David B. Lobell |
| Abstract: | Agricultural research has fostered productivity growth, but the historical influence of anthropogenic climate change on that growth has not been quantified. We develop a robust econometric model of weather effects on global agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) and combine this model with counterfactual climate scenarios to evaluate impacts of past climate trends on TFP. Our baseline model indicates that anthropogenic climate change has reduced global agricultural TFP by about 21% since 1961, a slowdown that is equivalent to losing the last 9 years of productivity growth. The effect is substantially more severe (a reduction of ~30-33%) in warmer regions such as Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. We also find that global agriculture has grown more vulnerable to ongoing climate change. |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2007.10415&r=all |
| By: | Caroline Marie-Jeanne (UA - Université d'Angers) |
| Abstract: | L'objet de cet article est d'étudier, à travers la contribution de l'approche thomiste, les liens entre la finance et le bien commun. L'argent n'appartient pas aux biens communs par nature mais il peut être mis en commun par le partage et utilisé en vue du Bien commun au sens philosophique du terme. Il s'agit tout d'abord de penser cette notion dans l'ordre financier à partir des écrits fondamentaux. L'étude de l'utilisation de l'argent en vue du Bien commun, selon l'approche thomiste, à travers les prêts et la spéculation, fournit ensuite des pistes de réflexion pour répondre aux défis à venir et définir de nouvelles formes de gestion associées à cette ressource. Saint Thomas met en exergue l'importance du partage de l'argent et du gain, de la gratuité du prêt pour l'existence de la communauté, de la finalité de l'acte et de la valeur d'usage. Nous montrerons enfin comment ces concepts peuvent être développés aujourd'hui pour une finance destinée au Bien commun notamment grâce à la finance participative, à la finance solidaire, au microcrédit, aux social bonds, aux green bonds et aux climate bonds. |
| Keywords: | spéculation,finance,bien commun,prêt |
| Date: | 2019–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02799230&r=all |
| By: | Max Luke; Priyanshi Somani; Turner Cotterman; Dhruv Suri; Stephen J. Lee |
| Abstract: | Recent studies conclude that the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic decreased power sector CO$_2$ emissions worldwide. We analyze the statistical significance of CO$_2$ emissions reductions in the U.S power sector from March through July 2020 and we present model-informed expectations of the likelihood of sustained reductions in CO$_2$ emissions. We use Gaussian process (GP) regression to assess whether CO$_2$ emissions reductions would have occurred with reasonable probability in the absence of COVID-19 considering uncertainty due to factors unrelated to the pandemic. We show that CO$_2$ emissions are lower than levels expected in the absence of COVID-19 for each month from March through July 2020 but that those monthly reductions are not statistically significant considering hypothesis tests at 5% significance levels. To make predictions about whether COVID-19-related CO$_2$ emissions reductions will be sustained in the power sector, we assess the relative impacts of the pandemic on electricity generation (E) and on the carbon intensity of electricity supply (C/E). E is on average 2.9\% lower than what we would expect in the absence of COVID-19 from March through July 2020. We expect E to rebound alongside a recovery of the U.S. economy. C/E is determined to be 2.7% lower on average than what we would expect in the absence of COVID-19 from March through July 2020. Reductions in C/E are mostly attributable to reductions in the share of coal-fired electricity generation. We analyze the expected profitability through 2021 of the 845 coal-fired power plant units operating in the U.S. We find that only 76 of those units, representing 1.3% of total coal generation capacity, were expected to be profitable prior to COVID-19 but are no longer expected to be profitable. We conclude that COVID-19 is unlikely to have a material impact on U.S. power sector CO$_2$ emissions in the long-run. |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2008.06660&r=all |
| By: | J. Scott Holladay (Department of Economics, University of Tennessee); Lawrence D. LaPlue III (Department of Economics, New Mexico State University) |
| Abstract: | This paper decomposes pollution releases by U.S. manufacturing establishments to show the relative importance of four establishment-level channels: entry, exit, reallocation between survivors, and within-establishment adjustment of emissions intensity. Using a panel of establishment-level output and pollution emissions to air and water for U.S. manufacturers, we decompose changes in pollution emissions into the three channels typically presented in the literature: changes in scale (output), composition (industry market share), and industry-level technique (emissions intensity). We then decompose changes due to industry-level emissions intensity into four establishment level channels for three criteria air pollutants and water pollution. For volatile organic compound emissions, nearly two-thirds of the reduction in sector-level emissions intensity is due to within-establishment reductions in emissions intensity. The other third is driven by reallocation to cleaner establishments. Though the magnitudes differ, results are broadly similar for particulate matter and sulfur dioxide. Onsite releases of effluents to water exhibit a similar pattern, though the relative importance of reallocation is greater. Additionally we find that within-establishment reductions in water emissions are associated with increased transfers to offsite publicly owned treatment facilities. The heterogeneous contributions across channels suggests that the cleanup in the U.S. manufacturing sector likely has multiple sources. |
| Keywords: | Emissions Decomposition, Establishment Entry and Exit, Aggregate Emissions, Emissions Intensity |
| JEL: | C10 Q50 Q56 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ten:wpaper:2020-01&r=all |
| By: | Abedullah (Chief of Research, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.); Muhammad Tanvir (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad.) |
| Abstract: | About 3 billion people are relying on polluting sources of energy in developing countries. These polluting sources are responsible for 4 million deaths and 2.7 percent of the global burden of disease. Ninety-four percent of households in rural areas of Pakistan are using solid biomass for cooking and heating. Being mainly involved in cooking, rural women are highly vulnerable to hazardous pollutants. The extant literature has rarely explored the impact of indoor air pollution on women health in Pakistan. The present study unveils the effect of polluting fuel burning on symptoms of acute upper respiratory infections such as sore throat, cough, congestion, breathing difficulties, and fatigue. A household survey was conducted by employing a multi-stage sampling technique to collect data from 252 households from Abbottabad and Haripur districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. The diversification in domestic tasks, number of windows in kitchen and use of mask in close kitchen have negative and significant correlation with respiratory health symptoms. However, solid fuels, exposure to pollution, and close kitchen are found to have positive and significant impacts on respiratory health symptoms. The results of standardized regression model reveal that use of polluting energy sources in close kitchen are contributing more than twice to respiratory symptoms than in open kitchen. Exposure to pollution, solid fuels and close kitchen are major culprits for respiratory health symptoms among rural women responsible for kitchen work. The study concludes that awareness campaigns on the benefits of using clean energy sources, importance of windows and masks in close kitchen and open kitchen among rural women may help to significantly reduce the burden of respiratory health problems. |
| Keywords: | Indoor air pollution, polluting fuel and respiratory symptoms, Pakistan |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pid:wpaper:2020:12&r=all |
| By: | Regina Pleninger (KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | During the last decades, the United States experienced an increase in the number of natural disasters as well as their destructive capability. Several studies suggest a damaging effect of natural disasters on income. In this paper, I estimate the effects of natural disasters on the entire income distribution using county-level data in the United States. In particular, I determine the income fractions that are affected by natural disasters. The results suggest that natural disasters primarily affect middle incomes, thereby leaving income inequality levels mostly unchanged. In addition, the paper examines potential channels that intensify or mitigate the effects, such as social security or the severity of natural disasters. The findings show that social security, assistance programs and migration are important adaptation tools that reduce the effects of natural disasters. In contrast, the occurrence of multiple and severe disasters aggravate the effects. |
| Keywords: | Disaster, Income Distribution, United States, Migration, Panel Data |
| JEL: | D63 O51 Q54 R23 |
| Date: | 2020–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kof:wpskof:20-474&r=all |
| By: | L. Vanessa Smith (DERS, University of York.); Nori Tarui (Department of Economics, University of Hawaii.); Takashi Yamagata (DERS, University of York & ISER, Osaka University.) |
| Abstract: | This paper demonstrates how the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) modelling framework can be used for producing conditional forecasts of global fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, as well as for conducting counterfactual analysis related to carbon pricing, conditional on alternative GDP scenarios. The choice of the conditioning variable does not limit the generality of the approach. The proposed analysis can be useful in guiding and informing policy making as illustrated by our application, which conditions on two-year horizon GDP forecast trajectories by the International Monetary Fund. These trajectories are associated with the global economic shock due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Our model makes use of a unique quarterly data set of coal, natural gas, and oil consumption, output and exchange rates, including global fossil fuel prices for 32 major CO2 emitting countries. The results show that fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are expected to return to their pre-crisis levels, and even exceed them, within the two-year horizon despite the large reductions in the first quarter following the outbreak. More robust growth is anticipated for emerging than for advanced economies. Recovery to the pre-crisis levels is expected even if another wave of pandemic occurs within a year. Results from the counterfactual carbon pricing scenario indicate that an increase in coal prices is expected to have a smaller impact on GDP than on fossil fuel consumption. Thus, the COVID-19 pandemic would not provide countries with a strong reason to delay climate change mitigation efforts. |
| Keywords: | fuel consumption; CO2 emissions; Global VAR (GVAR); conditional forecasts; carbon pricing; COVID-19 |
| JEL: | C33 O50 P18 Q41 Q43 Q47 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:was:dpaper:2004&r=all |
| By: | Patrice Wuscher (Inrap - Institut national de recherches archéologiques préventives); Christophe Jorda (ASM - Archéologie des Sociétés Méditerranéennes - UM3 - Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 - MCC - Ministère de la Culture et de la Communication - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Quentin Borderie (CG28 - Conseil général d'Eure-et-Loir. Service de l'archéologie - Conseil général d'Eure-et-Loir); Nathalie Schneider (Inrap - Institut national de recherches archéologiques préventives); Laurent Bruxelles (Inrap - Institut national de recherches archéologiques préventives) |
| Abstract: | Earth sciences were used since the earliest paleolithic research in the 19th century to find archaeological sites and to study the adaptation of past societies to environmental changes. They took an important role in the preventive archaeology systems developed from the 1980s to save the remains threatened by territory development. This contribution aims to illustrate the multidisciplinary approach developed over several decades, from documentary and cartographic studies to the opening of test pits. It also intends to show some contributions of geoarchaeology and preventive archaeology to geomorphological questions, to the reconstruction of landscape dynamics and to the question of human impact on the environment. The examples presented were chosen in different geographical contexts, in the south of France, Paris basin and Alsace, from the paleolithic to the modern era, to illustrate the potential of the approach which would benefit from being applied more systematically. |
| Abstract: | Les sciences de la terre ont été mises à contribution dès les premières recherches paléolithiques au XIXe siècle pour trouver les sites archéologiques et participer à l'étude de l'adaptation des sociétés du passé aux changements environnementaux. Elles ont pris un rôle important dans les dispositifs d'archéologie préventive élaborés à partir des années 1980 pour sauvegarder les vestiges menacés par les travaux d'aménagement du territoire. La présente contribution vise à illustrer la démarche pluridisciplinaire à l'œuvre depuis plusieurs décennies, depuis les études documentaires et cartographiques jusqu'à l'ouverture de tranchées de diagnostic. Elle se propose également de montrer quelques apports de la géoarchéologie et de l'archéologie préventive aux questions géomorphologiques, à la reconstitution des dynamiques des paysages et à l'impact de l'Homme sur l'environnement. Les exemples présentés ont été choisis dans des contextes géographiques différents, du sud de la France, du bassin de Paris et d'Alsace, du paléolithique à l'époque moderne, pour illustrer les potentiels de la démarche qui gagnerait à être appliquée de façon plus systématique. |
| Keywords: | Geomorphology,geoarchaeology,rescue archaeology,test pits,landscapes,Géomorphologie,géoarchéologie,archéologie préventive,diagnostics archéologiques,paysages |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02893418&r=all |
| By: | Damonte, Gerardo (Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE)); Godfried, Julieta; Ulloa, Astrid; Quiroga, Catalina; López, Ana Paula |
| Abstract: | La problemática hídrica es uno de los motores de los múltiples conflictos ambientales generados por la expansión de la minería a gran escala en territorios andinos. Como respuesta al acaparamiento del agua por parte de las empresas, las trabas para la población disponible de este recurso y la contaminación de las fuentes, se presentan reclamos referidos al control ambiental por parte del Estado. Este estudio —en el que se abordan los casos de tres minas ubicadas en la Argentina, el Perú y Colombia— muestra que, frente a la falta de acceso y canales de participación, así como la desconfianza respecto a la información oficial por los Estados y las empresas, emergen procesos de monitoreo comunitario del agua que buscan legitimarse y articularse con movimientos de defensa territorial de largo plazo. |
| Keywords: | Minería, Mining, Conflictos sociales, Social conflicts, Gestión ambiental, Environmental management, Recursos hídricos, Water resources, Argentina, Perú, Colombia, Peru |
| JEL: | L71 Q25 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gad:doctra:dt104&r=all |
| By: | Claudio Santiago Dias Jr (UFMG) |
| Abstract: | This paper describes some demographic, socioeconomic and health characteristics of the municipalities municipalities located in the area covered by the Brumadinho Environmental Disaster that occurred in January 2019. Data from Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE), Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano do Brasil, DATASUS and the Secretaria de Estado da Saúde de Minas Gerais were used. The results show a certain heterogeneity in the indicators used to characterize the municipalities. It is hoped that the information produced can assist future studies and public policies to be carried out in the affected area. |
| Keywords: | Brumadinho´s Environmental Disaster, Vale S.A, Minas Gerais, Brazil |
| JEL: | J10 J11 Y80 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdp:texdis:td624&r=all |
| By: | Fernanda da Silva Momo (UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul [Porto Alegre]); Marcos Vinicius Araujo (UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul [Porto Alegre]); Ariel Behr (UFRGS - Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul [Porto Alegre]) |
| Abstract: | A partir das preocupações com o meio ambiente, surgiu, na Organização das Nações Unidas, uma comissão para discutir sustentabilidade e desenvolvimento sustentável, da qual emergiram diversas outras pesquisas, relatórios e materiais de uso acadêmico e de uso em políticas públicas. Nesse sentido, o tema se tornou importante e tem sido estudado em diversas áreas, como na Contabilidade e na Adminis-tração, ganhando, inclusive, sessões temáticas em eventos, como o Encontro da Associação Nacional de Pesquisa em Administração (EnANPAD), maior evento brasileiro da área. Visto esse ganho de importância, este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar os artigos publicados na linha Contabilidade e Sustentabilidade, de 2010 a 2016. Para tal, coletou-se todos os artigos para uma análise quantitativa, a partir de uma análise frequencial, utilizando-se o software NVivo®. Os resultados mostram as palavras e temas mais comuns nos títulos e resumos. A partir dos resultados, é possível concluir que há uma diversidade de abordagens direcionadas a essa temática, mas percebe-se que as publicações possuem um enfoque em temas de men-suração e divulgação das ações relacionadas à sustentabilidade. Assim, dentro da abordagem contábil, a sustentabilidade está relacionada a pensar no futuro da organização e sua imagem, ou seja, à divulgação de seus resultados. Palavras-chave: Sustentabilidade; contabilidade; relatório de sustentabilidade; indicadores de sustentabilidade. |
| Keywords: | Sustentabilidade,contabilidade,relatório de sustentabilidade,indicadores de sustentabilidade |
| Date: | 2018–09–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02885654&r=all |
| By: | Shun Katsuki (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology); Yoichi Hizen (School of Economics and Management, Kochi University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | Does voting solve intergenerational sustainability dilemma? Do voting rules matter for inducing people to collectively select a sustainable alternative that leaves more resources for future generations? To answer these questions, we conduct a laboratory experiment with human subjects in the framework of intergenerational sustainability dilemma game, in which the own-payoff maximizing choice by the current generation decreases the size of resource left for the subsequent generations. The choice is made by voting among the members of each generation, and we compare three voting rules, ordinary voting, whereby each person has one vote, proxy voting, whereby a part of people are given an extra vote on behalf of the subsequent generations, and two-ballot voting, whereby all people are given an extra vote. We observe that proxy voting and two-ballot voting improve the frequency of sustainable choice in comparison with ordinary voting, but the frequency is still low. This result implies that having people vote individually hardly achieves sustainable choices by successive generations even if the rules of voting are elaborated to some extent. |
| Keywords: | proxy vote, intergenerational sustainability dilemma, future generation, laboratory experiment |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kch:wpaper:sdes-2020-7&r=all |
| By: | Shyekhha, Siamak (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)); Borggrefe, Frieder (German Aerospace Center (DLR)); Madlener, Reinhard (E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN)) |
| Abstract: | Auctions have recently been introduced in many countries as a useful alternative to accomplish renewable energy supports. However, they are often accompanied by a high concentration of renewable energy power plants at productive sites, at the expense of other, less favorable sites. This paper studies the impact of alternative renewable energy auction designs on the promotion of renewable energy in Germany using a novel multi-level approach. To do so, we analyze auctions on three different spatial levels: the national auction, the regional auction-type I (federal states level) and the regional auction-type II (north/south auction). The initial step for modeling renewable energy auction schemes in Germany is to investigate the onshore wind potential with a high regional and temporal resolution, using the GIS-data-based tool REMix-ENDAT. The results of this analysis show a considerable as yet untapped onshore wind potential in the southern federal states of Germany. Second, an onshore wind auction model is developed using a system dynamics approach. Finally, the comparison of the support payment for different auction designs is evaluated using the electricity market simulation model (HECTOR). Findings indicate that more bidders from the southern federal states can win in the regional auctions. Detailed spatial analysis reveals a trade-off between balanced diversity of bidders and average auction price (the price difference varies from 0.5 €-ct/kWh to 1.5 €-ct/kWh in different scenarios). We conduct that, a noticeable potential support payment saving from regional auctions should be exploited in long-term renewable energy policy designs. |
| Keywords: | Renewable auction design; System dynamics; Support payment |
| JEL: | D44 D47 Q28 Q47 |
| Date: | 2019–12–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:fcnwpa:2019_022&r=all |
| By: | Guillaume MOREL |
| Abstract: | Within the present paper, we build a model from epidemiology and economics to study the impact of infectious diseases on the steady states and dynamic of an economy. More precisely, we embed a SIS model within a Ramsey growth model in a close framework with a tax where pollution comes from consumption. Firstly, we show that a consumption tax allocated to a depollution policy possesses an ambiguous effect on consumption and welfare, depending on the disease infectivity factor. Secondly, we point out that an increase in the spread of an infectious disease can’t make a limit cycle (Hopf bifurcation) emerge near the endemic steady state. |
| Keywords: | Hopf bifurcation, Pollution, Ramsey model, SIS model. |
| JEL: | C62 O44 Q5 I1 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2020-38&r=all |
| By: | Valentine Erne-Heintz (CERDACC - Centre Européen de recherche sur le Risque, le Droit des Accidents Collectifs et des Catastrophes - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar) |
| Abstract: | La sûreté répond à trois exigences : limiter les rejets radioactifs dans l'environnement, prévenir les incidents et les accidents, en limiter les conséquences. Pour disposer d'une centrale sûre, il faut s'assurer en permanence du contrôle de la réaction nucléaire, du refroidissement du combustible et du confinement des produits radioactifs. Ces trois fonctions doivent être pensées dès la conception, lors de la construction puis de l'exploitation de la centrale. Dès lors, des investissements supplémentaires (dits de sûreté) visent-ils à accroître la sécurité des dispositifs existants ou la durée de vie des centrales donc à rentabiliser un existant via des économies d'échelle au détriment du risque d'un accident ? Le risque improbable ne peut-il jamais se réaliser ? Est-il anodin ? Une bonne préparation à un accident nucléaire permet-elle d'en réduire sa vulnérabilité ? Le principe de prévention est-il applicable dans le cas du risque nucléaire ? Si oui, cela signifie que le rapport bénéfice/coût des mesures prend en compte deux points essentiels : le coût d'un accident et la probabilité d'occurrence ; ce raisonnement détermine-t-il le choix de fermer une centrale ? Dans le cadre de cet article, nous soulèverons les difficultés à évaluer le coût d'un accident nucléaire. En fait, la question n'est pas tant d'en chiffrer le coût – les investissements déjà réalisés sont irréversibles : les centrales sont bien là – mais plutôt de mettre en perspective le coût du démantèlement et le coût d'une catastrophe via l'évaluation économique des conséquences d'un accident (mineur et majeur). Puis d'insister sur les limites d'une telle démarche dans le cas du risque nucléaire. |
| Keywords: | risque ultime,accident,nucléaire civil,démantèlement |
| Date: | 2019 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02902085&r=all |
| By: | Sinha, Avik; Sengupta, Tuhin; Kalugina, Olga; Awais Gulzar, Muhammad |
| Abstract: | Despite the ongoing research on energy innovation and economic growth, little is known on how degree of energy innovation impacts income inequality within a nation. To address this research gap, we have developed a bivariate model to analyze how distribution of energy innovation affects the income distribution in a certain country. Using the Fisher Ideal Index, we have calculated energy efficiency as an indicator of energy innovation. Quantile-on-Quantile regression has been applied to capture the impact on energy innovation across different income quantiles in Next 11 countries. Results show that energy innovation can have different outcomes, across the member countries of N11 group, namely a) equitable and positive impact, (b) negative impact, and (c) inequitable impact in terms of distribution of income. We have inferred important policy implications, which might lead to sustainable development strategies in N11 countries. This study is one of the first to establish the direct link between energy innovation and income inequality across different quantiles within a nation. Further, we successfully demonstrate the application of advanced quantile methods in inferring Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) focused policy implications. |
| Keywords: | Energy Innovation; Energy Efficiency; Income Inequality; Sustainable Development Goals; Quantile-on-Quantile Regression |
| JEL: | O3 O30 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102007&r=all |
| By: | Hayat, Arshad; Rakshit, Shoumyadeep |
| Abstract: | Natural resources are expected to worsen institutional quality, thus slowing economic growth. In this paper, we investigate the link between institutional quality, natural resources, and economic growth. We used a panel data of 117 countries, growth relevant IRCG, institutional quality indicators, and apply the system generalized method of moments. Our results confirm that institutional quality promotes economic growth. We found that natural resource slows down the growth-inducing impact institutional quality only in for corruption and democratic accountability, thus confirming the idea of the natural resource curse. Natural resources were, however, found to enhance the institutions' induced economic growth for all other indicators except corruption, democratic accountability, and bureaucracy, thus confirming the idea of so-called natural resource blessing. The results are robust for two model specifications and across two different indicators of natural resource abundance, namely, natural resource exports and natural resource rents. |
| Keywords: | Natural resources, institutional quality, economic growth |
| JEL: | O43 Q32 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:101704&r=all |
| By: | Jaramillo, Miguel; Ñopo, Hugo (Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE)) |
| Abstract: | América Latina sufre en este momento dos shocks, independientes, pero relacionados: el impacto del COVID-19 y el shock de precios de materias primas. El Perú, argumentamos, es un caso en el que el impacto más fuerte proviene de la epidemia. El Perú fue el primer caso de América Latina que reaccionó frente al coronavirus implementado medidas sanitarias y económicas. El país está en cuarentena obligatoria desde el lunes 16 de marzo. Esto trae consigo retos muy importantes para todos los actores económicos. La actividad global y nacional ha sufrido una parada súbita, lo cual tiene implicanciones directas en (i) la capacidad de generación de ingresos de los trabajadores independientes; (ii) los empleos de los trabajadores formales e informales; y (iii) la supervivencia de las empresas pequeñas, medianas y grandes. En este texto, analizamos la situación de los hogares peruanos de cara a la pandemia, explorando sus vulnerabilidades mediante un análisis de sus principal fuente de generación de ingresos: el trabajo. Analizamos también la situación de las empresas que brindan empleo a estos trabajadores. Presentamos un panorama de las principales ascciones del Gobierno y ofrecemos algunas recomendaciones. |
| Keywords: | COVID 19, Impactos económicos, Políticas públicas, Economic impacts, Public policies, Perú, Peru |
| JEL: | I18 F6 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gad:doctra:dt107&r=all |
| By: | Fabian Stöckl; Alexander Zerrahn |
| Abstract: | We fit CES and VES production functions to data from a numerical bottom-up optimization model of electricity supply with clean and dirty inputs. This approach allows for studying high shares of clean energy not observable today and for isolating mechanisms that impact the elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty energy. Central results show that (i) dirty inputs are not essential for production. As long as some energy storage is available, the elasticity of substitution between clean and dirty inputs is above unity; (ii) no single clean technology is indispensable, but a balanced mix facilitates substitution; (iii) substitution is harder for higher shares of clean energy. Finally, we demonstrate how changing availability of generation and storage technologies can be implemented in macroeconomic models. |
| Keywords: | Elasticity of substitution, clean and dirty energy, electricity production, decarbonization, green growth |
| JEL: | O44 Q42 Q43 Q55 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1885&r=all |
| By: | Björn Bartling; Vanessa Valero; Roberto A. Weber; Lan Yao |
| Abstract: | We investigate the causal impact of public discourse on socially responsible market behavior. We conduct laboratory market experiments with products that differ in their production costs and social impact, and provide market actors and impacted third parties with the opportunity to discuss appropriate market behavior. Across two studies that vary characteristics of the discourse, the external impact and the participants, we find that public discourse substantially increases market social responsibility. Our findings suggest that discussions and campaigns focusing on appropriate market behavior can be powerful tools for shaping responsible norms governing market conduct and addressing inefficiencies due to market failures. |
| Keywords: | Public discourse, market failure, externalities, social responsibility, social norms, experiment, communication |
| JEL: | C92 D62 D83 M14 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zur:econwp:359&r=all |
| By: | Xu, Lili; Lee, Sang-Ho |
| Abstract: | This study investigates government public policies facing competing firms’ strategic corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities and finds that the choice of CSR crucially depends on corporate profit tax. We demonstrate that strategic CSR decreases while social welfare increases with corporate tax. When the government grants uniform output subsidies, we show that bilateral CSR leads to a lower CSR level than under unilateral CSR but bilateral CSR is always beneficial to society. However, when the government grants discriminatory output subsidies which yield different levels of unilateral CSR, we show that domestic CSR leads to a lower CSR level than under foreign CSR. In an endogenous CSR choice game, domestic CSR (no CSR) is a Nash equilibrium when corporate tax is low (high) under the uniform subsidy, while foreign CSR could be a Nash equilibrium when corporate tax is low under the discriminatory subsidy. |
| Keywords: | corporate profit tax; corporate social responsibility; endogenous CSR choice game |
| JEL: | D43 H21 L21 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:102313&r=all |
| By: | Nicholas Tyack (Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva, Switzerland); Milan Scasny (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic & Charles University Environment Centre, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | We use a discrete choice experiment to elicit the preferences of Czech adults ages 18 to 69 (n=805) for the conservation of wine, hop, and fruit tree varieties. In addition, we also elicit the preferences of a smaller sub-sample consisting solely of respondents from South Moravia (n=463), an agricultural region of the country. Estimating a mixed logit model, we find a strong public preference for fruit tree conservation and derive a mean willingness to pay (WTP) for the conservation of fruit tree varieties of about 280 KÄ . Mean WTP for wine variety conservation was found to be about 130 KÄ , while WTP for conserving hop varieties was estimated at about 80 KÄ . Mean WTP values among respondents from South Moravia for crop conservation programs were found to be between about three and four times higher than for the general Czech population. We further examine the impact of observed preference heterogeneity for several respondent-specific characteristics on WTP for the conservation of the three crops. In total, the Czech adult population was estimated to have an aggregate WTP of at least two billion KÄ for additional fruit tree conservation over next ten years, about one billion KÄ for the conservation of additional wine varieties, and ~580 million KÄ for the conservation of additional hop varieties, and these values increase by 31–112 percent if the estimated benefits for the maximum number of varieties as offered in our design are added), revealing the previously unmeasured social welfare benefits of these activities. The estimated benefits of specific crop conservation are an important contribution to the valuation of these historic Czech resources, as crop varieties conserved now provide not only option and bequest values but may also be more resistant to biotic stresses (such as pests and diseases) as well as expected adverse weather extremes, providing the potential to help adapt Czech agriculture to future shocks. |
| Keywords: | Crop diversity; plant genetic resources for food and agriculture; discrete choice experiments; mixed logit; willingness to pay; consumer preferences |
| JEL: | Q18 Q51 Q57 |
| Date: | 2020–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2020_25&r=all |
| By: | Jean-Pierre Bompard (Humanité et Biodiversité Paris); Dominique Bureau (MTES - Ministère de la Transition Ecologique et Solidaire); Nicolas Treich (TSE - Toulouse School of Economics - UT1 - Université Toulouse 1 Capitole - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement); Michel Trommetter (GAEL [2020-....] - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble [2020-....] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement - UGA [2020-....] - Université Grenoble Alpes [2020-....] - Grenoble INP [2020-....] - Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology [2020-....] - UGA [2020-....] - Université Grenoble Alpes [2020-....]) |
| Abstract: | La pandémie COVID-19 nous rappelle l'importance des problèmes sanitaires à l'interface entre l'Humain, l'animal et l'environnement : près des deux tiers des maladies infectieuses humaines proviennent de pathogènes partagés avec des animaux sauvages ou domestiques. Alors que le nombre de personnes atteintes de maladies infectieuses diminue, notamment dans les régions occidentales, paradoxalement le nombre d'épidémies infectieuses continue de croître. Le rôle joué par la dégradation des écosystèmes, notamment la déforestation, dans le phénomène de « saut de la barrière des espèces » est questionné, de même que, plus généralement, celui de nos modes de vie (régimes et filières alimentaires, commerce…). Ainsi, cette pandémie suggère non seulement de réévaluer les politiques publiques existantes de contrôle et gestion sanitaires, mais aussi de voir comment celles-ci devraient être complétées au niveau de l'orientation des comportements économiques. Pour prévenir les futures épidémies et en réduire les impacts, il importe de comprendre quels mécanismes génèrent les épidémies et l'augmentation de leur fréquence ou sévérité ; en particulier dans quelle mesure les changements globaux et les facteurs anthropiques modifient la donne. S'il est difficile, voire illusoire, d'empêcher les animaux de développer des maladies transmissibles aux humains, et nécessaire de contrôler leur apparition et de gérer les conséquences sanitaires et économiques, un des moyens pour diminuer les risques d'épidémie consisterait à agir aussi en amont. A cet égard, la préservation des habitats naturels, la diminution de la consommation carnée, la réduction de la taille des élevages intensifs et l'arrêt de la commercialisation (légale ou non) de la viande d'animaux sauvages constitueraient autant de mesures cohérentes et efficaces pour des politiques de santé publique de demain « une seule santé ». |
| Keywords: | préservation des ecosystèmes,zoonose,Covid-19,pandémie,politique environnementale |
| Date: | 2020–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02907115&r=all |
| By: | Grant Allan (Deparrment of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Christos Barkoumas (Deparrment of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Andrew Ross (Deparrment of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Ashank Sinha (Deparrment of Economics, University of Strathclyde) |
| Abstract: | UK policymakers are seeking to use the levers of a more active industrial policy to develop economic opportunities, including through new and expanded trading opportunities. At the same time, the UK Government has committed to a net zero greenhouse gas emissions target by 2050. While increases in exports are expected to raise economic activity, it is unclear what impact this will have on UK energy use and emissions. With a main plank of the UK strategy the development of _Sector Deals", it is unknown whether this is also true for specific industrial sectors. We examine this empirically in a multisectoral Computable General Equilibrium model of the UK that captures the interdependence between economic activity, energy use and emissions. Our results suggest that while economic outcomes move in the desired direction there are mixed impacts on energy use, UK territorial industrial emissions, and the energy- and emissions-intensity of the UK economy. Notably, we identify instances where growing exports in specific sectors help to meet the objectives of both the Clean Growth Strategy and Industrial Strategy. |
| Keywords: | energy policy, industrial strategy, trade policy, emissions |
| JEL: | C68 D58 Q43 Q48 |
| Date: | 2020–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:str:wpaper:2008&r=all |
| By: | Guglielmo Maria Caporale; Luis A. Gil-Alana; Nieves Carmona-González |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the statistical properties of daily PM10 in eight European capitals (Amsterdam, Berlin, Brussels, Helsinki, London, Luxembourg, Madrid and Paris) over the period 2014-2020 by applying a fractional integration framework; this is more general than the standard approach based on the classical dichotomy between I(0) stationary and I(1) non-stationary series used in most other studies on air pollutants. All series are found to be characterised by long memory and fractional integration, with orders of integration in the range (0, 1), which implies that mean reversion occurs and shocks do not have permanent effects. Persistence is highest in the case of Brussels, Amsterdam and London. The presence of negative trends in Brussels, Paris and Berlin indicates some degree of success in reducing pollution in these capitals. |
| Keywords: | fractional integration, long memory, persistence, trends, air pollutants, PM10 |
| JEL: | C22 Q53 |
| Date: | 2020 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_8402&r=all |