|
on Africa |
| By: | Prados de la Escosura, Leandro |
| Abstract: | Long-run trends in Africa’s well-being are provided on the basis of a new index of human development, alternative to the UNDP’s HDI. A sustained improvement in African human development is found that falls, nonetheless, short of those experienced in other developing regions. Within Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen steadily behind the North since mid-20th century. Human development improvement is positively associated to being coastal and resource-rich and negatively to political-economy distortions. Contrary to the world experience, in which life expectancy dominated, education has driven progress in African human development during the last half-a-century and, due to the impact of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and the arresting effect of economic mismanagement and political turmoil on growth, advances in human development since 1990 have depended almost exclusively on education achievements. The large country variance of the recovery during the last decade suggests being cautious about the future’s prospects. |
| Keywords: | Africa; Education; HDI; Human Development; Life Expectancy; Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | I30 N37 O15 O55 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8586&r=afr |
| By: | AfDB |
| Date: | 2011–09–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbebr:326&r=afr |
| By: | Ranganathan, Rupa; Briceno-Garmendia, Cecilia M. |
| Abstract: | Improvements in infrastructure across Sudan in recent years have contributed 1.7 percentage points to the country's per capita growth. Consistent with trends in other countries, the ICT revolution that swept Africa contributed more than any other sector to growth in Sudan. Raising the infrastructure endowment of all parts of Sudan to that of the region's best performer -- Mauritius -- could boost annual growth by about 3.5 percentage points. Sudan has heavily invested in infrastructure in recent years. Notable achievements include tripling power-generation capacity, liberalizing the ICT sector, and connecting to an undersea fiber-optic cable. Looking ahead, Sudan's most pressing infrastructure challenges lie in the water and transport sectors. In the water sector, the country needs to dramatically improve access to safe sources of water and sanitation while improving utility efficiency. In the transport sector the country needs to vastly expand rural and international connectivity and improve quality across the network. Sudan presently spends about $1.5 billion per year on infrastructure, with $580 million a year lost to inefficiencies. Even if the inefficiencies were eliminated, however, Sudan would face an infrastructure funding gap of $2.9 billion per year. This gap could be reduced by half by choosing lower-cost water, sanitation, and road-surfacing technologies, and could be bridged by continuing to capture financing from the private sector and abroad. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Infrastructure Economics,Energy Production and Transportation,E-Business,Banks&Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2011–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5815&r=afr |
| By: | Morgan Bazilian (United Nations Industrial Development Organization); Patrick Nussbaumer (United Nations Industrial Development Organization); Hans-Holger Rogner (International Atomic Energy Agency); Abeeku Brew-Hammond (The Energy Center, KNUST); Vivien Foster (The World Bank); Shonali Pachauri (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis); Eric Williams (International Atomic Energy Agency); Mark Howells (KTH Technical University); Philippe Niyongabo (African Union Commission); Lawrence Musaba (Southern African Power Pool); Brian Ó Gallachóir (University College Cork); Mark Radka (United Nations Environment Programme); Daniel M. Kammen (The World Bank) |
| Abstract: | In order to reach a goal of universal access to modern energy services in Africa by 2030, consideration of various electricity sector pathways is required to help inform policy-makers and investors, and help guide power system design. To that end, and building on existing tools and analysis, we present several ‘high-level’, transparent, and economy-wide scenarios for the sub-Saharan African power sector to 2030. We construct these simple scenarios against the backdrop of historical trends and various interpretations of universal access. They are designed to provide the international community with an indication of the overall scale of the effort required. We find that most existing projections, using typical long-term forecasting methods for power planning, show roughly a threefold increase in installed generation capacity occurring by 2030, but more than a tenfold increase would likely be required to provide for full access – even at relatively modest levels of electricity consumption. This equates to approximately a 13% average annual growth rate, compared to a historical one (in the last two decades) of 1.7%. |
| Keywords: | Energy Access, Power System Planning, Sub-Saharan Africa |
| JEL: | C1 Q41 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2011.68&r=afr |
| By: | AfDB |
| Date: | 2011–09–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:adb:adbwps:327&r=afr |
| By: | Abebe Damte; Steven F. Koc |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between property rights, defined by land tenure security and the strength of local-level institutions, and household demand for fuel wood, as measured by the source from which fuel wood is collected. A multinomial regression model is applied to survey data collected in rural Ethiopia. Results from the discrete choice model indicate that active local-level institutions increase household dependency on open access forests, while land security reduces open access forest dependence. However, local-level institutions are found to reduce the role of private fuel wood sources, while tenure security has not, at least yet, had any impact on private fuel wood source collection activities. The results suggest that there is a need to bring more open access forests under the management of the community and increase the quality of community forestry management in order to realize improvements in forest conservation |
| Keywords: | property rights, institutions, fuel wood, rural, Ethiopia |
| JEL: | C2 D73 O17 H32 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:245&r=afr |
| By: | Dominguez-Torres, Carolina; Foster, Vivien |
| Abstract: | The poor state of Cameroon's infrastructure is a key bottleneck to the nation's economic growth. From 2000 to 2005, improvements in information and communications technology (ICT) boosted Cameroon's growth performance by 1.26 percentage points per capita, while deficient power infrastructure held growth back by 0.28 points per capita. If Cameroon could improve its infrastructure to the level of Africa's middle-income countries, it could raise its per capita economic growth rate by about 3.3 percentage points. Cameroon has made significant progress in many aspects of infrastructure, implementing institutional reforms across a broad range of sectors with a view to attracting private-sector participation and finance, which has generally led to performance improvements. But the country still faces a number of important infrastructure challenges, including poor road quality, expensive and unreliable electricity, and a stagnating and uncompetitive ICT sector. Cameroon currently spends around $930 million per year on infrastructure, with $586 million lost to inefficiencies. Removing those inefficiencies would leave an infrastructure funding gap of $350 million per year. Given Cameroon's relatively strong economy and natural-resource base, as well as its success in attracting private financing, the country should be able to close that gap and meet its infrastructure goals within 13 years. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Infrastructure Economics,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Energy Production and Transportation,Banks&Banking Reform |
| Date: | 2011–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5822&r=afr |
| By: | Devarajan, Shantayanan (World Bank); Khemani, Stuti (World Bank); Walton, Michael (Harvard University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the potential role of civil society action in increasing state accountability for development in Sub-Saharan Africa. It further develops the analytical framework of the World Development Report 2004 on accountability relationships, to emphasize the underlying political economy drivers of accountability and implications for how civil society is constituted and functions. It argues on this basis that the most important domain for improving accountability is through the political relations between citizens, civil society, and state leadership. The evidence broadly suggests that when higher-level political leadership provides sufficient or appropriate powers for citizen participation in holding within-state agencies or frontline providers accountable, there is frequently positive impact on outcomes. However, the big question remaining for such types of interventions is how to improve the incentives of higher-level leadership to pursue appropriate policy design and implementation. The paper argues that there is substantial scope for greater efforts in this domain, including through the support of external aid agencies. Such efforts and support should, however, build on existing political and civil society structures (rather than transplanting "best practice" initiatives from elsewhere), and be structured for careful monitoring and assessment of impact. |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:harjfk:rwp11-036&r=afr |
| By: | Edouard Turkisch |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the opportunities and barriers for Sovereign Wealth Funds’ (SWFs) investments in Africa. Based on historical databases on SWFs’ transactions, it shows that SWFs can facilitate up to 50% of the investment needs in infrastructure in Africa over the next decade to meet the Millennium Development Goals over the 2010-20 decade, and that African economies can benefit highly from the rising investor interest, which stretches increasingly beyond natural resources. However, there are specific barriers to SWF investments. Some of them are structural (lack of technologies; small size, low liquidity and fragmentation of markets; bad sovereign ratings; weak regulatory framework; lack of capacity building), requiring long-term changes, whereas others require shorter term adjustments (more co-ordinated development strategies, more active actions dedicated to SWFs). The international community and major financial institutions may also play an increasingly active role in channelling SWFs into Africa.<BR>Dans ce document, l’auteur étudie les opportunités et barrières pour les investissements des fonds souverains en Afrique. A partir de données historiques sur les transactions des fonds souverains, il montre que leurs investissements peuvent faciliter jusqu’à 50% des investissements en infrastructure nécessaires pour atteindre les objectifs du Millénaire pour le développement pendant la décennie 2010-20, et que les économies africaines peuvent grandement bénéficier de l’intérêt croissant des fonds souverains, au delà des ressources naturelles. Cependant, il y a des barrières spécifiques. Certaines d’entre elles sont structurelles (manque de technologies ; petite taille, faible liquidité et fragmentation des marchés ; mauvaises notations de dettes souveraines ; faible cadre de régulation ; manque de capacité institutionnelle), et requièrent des changements de long terme, tandis que d’autres requièrent des changements de plus court terme (comme la définition d’une stratégie de développement mieux coordonnée et des actions spécifiques envers les fonds souverains). La communauté internationale et des institutions financières peuvent également jouer un rôle de plus en plus actif dans l’attraction de fonds souverains en Afrique. |
| Keywords: | developing countries, sovereign wealth fund, cross-border investment, pays en développement, fonds souverain, investissements transfrontaliers |
| JEL: | F21 F3 O16 O19 O55 Q3 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:devaaa:303-en&r=afr |
| By: | Torres, Clemencia; Briceno-Garmendia, Cecilia M.; Dominguez, Carolina |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure contributed 1 percentage point to Senegal's improved per capita growth performance between 2000 and 2005, placing it in the middle of the distribution among West African countries. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries (MICs) could boost annual growth by about 2.7 percentage points. Senegal has made significant progress in some areas of its infrastructure, including the transport, electricity, water, and information-and-communication-technology (ICT) sectors. But looking ahead, the country faces important infrastructure challenges, including improving road conditions, boosting air and rail traffic, updating electricity infrastructure, and boosting the pace of expansion of the water-and-sanitation network. Senegal currently spends around $911 million per year on infrastructure, with $312 million lost annually to inefficiencies. Comparing spending needs with existing spending and potential efficiency gains leaves an annual funding gap of $578 million per year. Senegal has the potential close this gap by bringing in more private-sector investment. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Infrastructure Economics,Public Sector Economics,E-Business,Roads&Highways |
| Date: | 2011–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5817&r=afr |
| By: | Briceno-Garmendia, Cecilia; Dominguez-Torres, Carolina |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure contributed 1.3 percentage points to Burkina Faso's annual per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth over the past decade, much of it due to improvements in information and communication technology (ICT). Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries (MICs) could boost annual growth by more than 3 percentage points per capita. Burkina Faso has made significant progress developing its infrastructure in recent years, especially in the ICT sector. The country has also moved forward in the areas of road maintenance and water and sanitation, but still faces challenges in these sectors, as well as in the electricity sector. As of 2007, Burkina Faso faced an annual infrastructure funding gap of $165 million per year, or 4 percent of GDP. That gap could be cut in half by the adoption of more appropriate technologies to meet infrastructure targets in the transport and the water and sanitation sectors. Even if Burkina Faso were unable to increase infrastructure spending or otherwise close the infrastructure funding gap, simply by moving from a 10- to 18-year horizon the country could address its efficiency gap and meet the posited infrastructure targets. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Infrastructure Economics,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,E-Business,Energy Production and Transportation |
| Date: | 2011–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5818&r=afr |
| By: | Ranganathan, Rupa; Briceno-Garmendia, Cecilia M. |
| Abstract: | Newly independent South Sudan faces a challenge in making its own way in infrastructure development. Despite earning $6 billion in oil revenues since 2005, South Sudan's spending has not been proportional to its income, but rather has lagged behind North Sudan's development of infrastructure and social support. South Sudan benefitted from strong donor support during 2004-10, the interim period defined by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement. It focused on reestablishing regional transport links and access to seaports as well as rehabilitating its ports, airstrips, and single rail line. South Sudan also successfully liberalized the ICT sector. Nonetheless, the new country's infrastructure remains in such a dismal state that it is difficult to pinpoint a single most pressing challenge. The transport sector accounts for half of the country's spending needs, and water and sanitation account for a further quarter of the total. But so many improvements are needed that the nation cannot realistically catch up with its neighbors within 10 years, or even longer. South Sudan's annual infrastructure funding gap is $879 million per year. Given that the country's total needs are beyond its reach in the medium term, it must adopt firm priorities for its infrastructure spending. It also must attract international and private-sector investment and look to lower-cost technologies to begin to close its funding gap. Although South Sudan loses relatively little to inefficiencies, redressing those inefficiencies will be vital to creating solid institutions to attract new investors and get the most out of their investments. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,E-Business,Infrastructure Economics,Energy Production and Transportation,Roads&Highways |
| Date: | 2011–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5814&r=afr |
| By: | Diongue Abdou Ka (UFR SAT - Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis Sénégal - Université Gaston Berger de Saint-Louis); Gaël Giraud (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - CNRS : UMR8174 - Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I, EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, ESCP-Europe - Campus de Paris); Cécile Renouard (ESSEC - ESSEC Business School) |
| Abstract: | Extractive industries face two main challenges in terms of CSR and poverty reduction: 1) recognize that societal activity is part of their core business; 2) take part in socio-economic projects that contribute to their stakeholders' empowerment and not only to their living conditions. Based on surveys achieved in Nigeria in 2008, the paper presents two societal performance indices meant to be complementary: the Poverty Exit Index (PEI) and the Relational Capability Index (RCI). We show that, while they have fostered the PEI of the local communities, the development projects of the oil companies had a rather negative impact on their RCI. We then identify key variables that can influence positively the RCI and on which a sensible development policy should focus. |
| Keywords: | development indices ; capability approach ; relational capability ; development ; poverty ; impact assessment |
| Date: | 2011–07–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:hal-00626247&r=afr |
| By: | James Njeru |
| Abstract: | This study examined the factors influencing technical efficiency in wheat farming in Kenya using a stochastic frontier production function in which technical inefficiency effects were assumed to be functions of both socioeconomic characteristics of the farmer and farm-specific characteristics. The paper used random sampling to interview 160 farmers comprising 97 large-scale farmers and 63 small-scale farmers. The results revealed existence of significant levels of technical inefficiencies in wheatproduction, especially among the large-scale farmers. The study found that the magnitude of technical efficiency varied from one farmer to another and ranged from 48.9% to 95.1%, with a mean of 87.2%. This implied that farmers lost close to 13% of the potential output to technical inefficiencies. There was variation depending on the size of farm with small-scale farmers attaining higher technical efficiency than the large-scale farmers. The main factors that influenced the degree of inefficiency were education levels, access to credit, and ownership of the capital equipment. Higher levels of education (12 years and above or secondary and above) significantly reduced inefficiency as did access to credit facilities and owning the farm equipment. The study recommended that farmers be educated on the use of better techniques such as use of certified seeds and application of recommended levels of fertilizer. |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_206&r=afr |
| By: | Stephen C. Smith (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University); Sungil Kwak (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | We introduce new approaches to research on poverty traps, focusing on changes in patterns of equilibria over time and across regions, applied to the Ethiopia Rural Household Survey. We revisit the incidence of multiple equilibria using new nonparametric techniques; we also emphasize conditions of single equilibria that remain stagnant below the poverty line. We identify a single equilibrium in our initial interval (1994 - 1999) but and evidence that a second, higher equilibrium is emerging in the subsequent (1999 - 2004) interval. One of three major regions exhibits a deeply impoverished equilibrium that does not improve despite a national environment of pro-poor growth. |
| Keywords: | poverty trap, Ethiopia, multiple equilibria, asset dynamics, regional poverty, sequence of equilibria |
| JEL: | O1 I3 |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2011-01&r=afr |
| By: | Awoyemi Taiwo Timothy |
| Abstract: | The study examines some of the factors which determine the type of non-agricultural activities in rural Nigeria an individual engages in. It is argued that diversification from subsistence farming and support for rural on-farm employment opportunities could be poverty-reducing. It has been noticed that an increase in foreign remittances reduces the incidence, depth and severity of poverty in developing countries. This study considers remittances as a source of incomewhich could possibly reduce poverty in the rural sector of the economy.We focus on the non-farmsector because of its potential for development and poverty alleviation in Nigeria. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_224&r=afr |
| By: | Ben E. Aigbokhan |
| Abstract: | The Nigerian labour market, like other sectors of the economy, witnessed dramatic changes following the introduction of the structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) in mid 1986. The labour market has a central role to play in the attainment of SAP objectives such as employment, income growth, and poverty reduction. In 1998 and 2000 the Federal Government implemented two jumbo salary increases which raised minimum salaries in the public sector. This had further implications for wages and employment in the formal sector of the economy. It then becomes necessary to understand the labour market process in the country. This study, focusing on the wage determination process, particularly in the manufacturing sector seeks to do this. Through this, it is possible to answer to the question: “Why would wages not adjust to equate labour supply to labour demand?” Drawing inspiration from the efficiency wage and related literature, the study uses data from an annual survey of manufacturing establishments conducted by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization in collaboration with the Centre for the Study of African Economies, Oxford, to analyse wage determination process in the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. Production and earning function approaches were used in the analysis. The ordinary least squares and instrumental two-stage least squares techniques were used in the analysis. Results from the production function analysis show that there is a positive and statistically significant relation between relative wage and productivity, consistent with prediction of the efficiency wage model. Estimation of further augmented production function suggests that some rent-sharing variables such as unionization are also relevant. Results from analysis of the earnings function show that earnings differentials seem to be explained mainly by human capital, as predicted by the competitive models. Efficiency wage and rent-sharing models both provide additional explanations. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_222&r=afr |
| By: | Olanrewaju Olaniyan |
| Abstract: | This study explores the determinants of child schooling in Nigeria and takes current enrolment and delayed entry into schools as measures of schooling outcome. The study utilized reduced form relationships for male and female children within urban and rural households. Using data from the 1999 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) of Nigeria, the study found that socioeconomic backgrounds of children are significant determinants of schooling with education of parents being the most important determinant. Educated parents desire more schooling for their children. Our decomposition analysis revealed that the way a household treats boys and girls in urban areas contracts the gender gap in enrolment, while it widens the gap in rural areas. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_217&r=afr |
| By: | Jane Kabubo-Mariara; Anthony Wambugu; Susan Musau |
| Abstract: | This paper generates multidimensional poverty profiles for women and children over a ten-year period from 1993 to 2003.Data from the national Demographic and Health Survey are used to improve measurement of poverty in Kenya in four ways: First, the paper constructs a composite wealth index (CWI). Second, it applies the Alkire and Foster (2007) approach to the measurement of multidimensional poverty based on the CWI and health status. Third, stochastic dominance approaches are used to make poverty orderings across groups. Fourth, the probability of being poor in assets, health or both is explored using a bivariate probit model. The results show that the distribution of poor women and children differs across groups, space and time. We also find that the CWI and residence in a rural area respectively contribute more to multidimensional poverty than health and residence in an urban area. The results further suggest that understanding the correlates of wellbeing in a multidimensional context can generate policy insights for improving human capital investments. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional poverty, composite wealth indicator, child health, stochastic dominance, Kenya |
| JEL: | C43 D31 I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:pmmacr:2011-12&r=afr |
| By: | Kwasi Fosu, Augustin (UNU-WIDER); Getachew, Yoseph Yilma (Durham Business School, Durham University); Ziesemer, Thomas (UNU-MERIT, and Department of Economics, Maastricht UNiversity) |
| Abstract: | How much does public capital matter for economic growth? How large should it be? This paper attempts to answer these questions, taking the case of SSA countries. It develops and estimates a model that posits a nonlinear relationship between public investment and growth, to determine the growth-maximizing public investment GDP share. It empirically also accounts for the crowding-in and crowding-out effects between public and private investment, with equations estimated separately and simultaneously, using System GMM. The paper further runs simulation and examines the public investment GDP share that maximizes consumption. This is estimated to be between 8.4 percent and 11.0 percent. The results from estimating the growth model are in the middle of this range, which is larger than the observed value of 7.2 percent at the end of the sample period. These outcomes suggest that, on average, there has been public under-investment in Africa, contrary to previous findings. |
| Keywords: | Public investment, Economic Growth, Nonlinearity |
| JEL: | H40 O40 O47 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:unumer:2011051&r=afr |
| By: | Gunther Bensch,; Jochen Kluve; Jörg Peters |
| Abstract: | Rural electrifi cation is believed to contribute to the achievement of the MDG. In this paper, we investigate electrifi cation impacts on diff erent indicators. We use household data that we collected in Rwanda in villages with and without electricity access. We account for self-selection and regional diff erences by using households from the electrifi ed villages to estimate the probability to connect for all households – including those in the non-electrifi ed villages. Based on these probabilities we identify counterfactual households and fi nd robust evidence for positive eff ects on lighting usage. Eff ects on income and children’s home studying become insignifi cant if regional diff erences are accounted for. |
| Keywords: | Rural electrifi cation; energy access; impact evaluation; matching |
| JEL: | O12 O13 O18 O22 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0284&r=afr |
| By: | Levision S. Chiwaula |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the impact of income and asset poverty on child work using the rural sub-sample of the 2004 Malawi Integrated Household Survey. Instrumenting consumption expenditure with a location dummy variabl and interacting consumption expenditure with household land-holding size in probit models, the likelihood of child labour is found to relate negatively with household consumption. On the other hand child labour relates positively with household land-holding size for consumption poor households only and when labour markets are imperfect. These findings do not discourage asset accumulation policies as a remedy agaisnts child labour but support policies that aim at increasing returns on the assets. |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_208&r=afr |
| By: | John Ataguba; William M. Fonta; Hyacinth E. Ichoku |
| Abstract: | This paper explores factors that predict deprivation and are associated with multiple counts of deprivation in Nsukka, Nigeria. Different conceptions of poverty were constructed: the traditional money-metric measure and differing multidimensional constructs of poverty. Data from a survey of households in Nsukka were used. The counting and FGT methodologies were used to measure poverty and deprivation. Ordinary least squares, probit and counting models were also used to assess factors that predict poverty. The results indicate that between 70% and 78% of the population in the study is categorized as deprived or poor. The major determinants of deprivation across its various constructs include large family size, a low level of education, poor employment, rural location and poor health. In order to effectively alleviate poverty, an integrated approach that accounts for inter-linkages between factors associated with poverty is required. |
| Keywords: | Multidimensional poverty, deprivation, determinants of poverty, missing dimensions, Nsukka |
| JEL: | I3 I32 D63 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:pmmacr:2011-13&r=afr |
| By: | Sosthène Ulrich Gnansounou |
| Abstract: | Investment is one of the mainsprings of economic growth. In order to analyse the factors explaining the weakness of investment by private firms in Benin, this paper used a capital demand function. This function was estimated using data from a panel of 123 firms in Benin and covering the 19972003 period. The findings showed that demand uncertainty and, more importantly, the fluctuations in the imports of manufactured goods from Nigeria have a negative effect on investment by private firms in Benin. The investment behaviour of these firms strongly hinges on the cost of capital utilization: When this cost is high, it weighs negatively on the purchase and installation of new production infrastructure. The magnitude of the effect of this cost of capital utilization and of the demand uncertainty which investment firms face depends on the nature of their activities. |
| Date: | 2010–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_209&r=afr |
| By: | Pushak, Nataliya; Foster, Vivien |
| Abstract: | Infrastructure made a net contribution of around 1 percentage point to Angola's improved per capita growth performance in recent years, despite unreliable power supplies and poor roads, which each holding back growth by 0.2 percentage points. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries (MICs) could boost Angola's annual growth by about 2.9 percentage points. As a resource-rich, postconflict country, Angola has shown an exceptionally strong commitment to financing the reconstruction and expansion of its infrastructure. It has recently expanded its generation capacity, embarked on an ambitious multibillion-dollar road rehabilitation program, begun to make investments aimed at easing congestion at the Port of Luanda, and embarked upon an ambitious rehabilitation program for urban water systems. Numerous challenges remain, however. Angola needs to upgrade its electricity transmission and distribution infrastructure, expand its urban water-supply system, improve efficiency at the Port of Luanda, and make policy and regulatory adjustments across the board. Angola presently spends around $4.3 billion per year on infrastructure, with $1.3 billion lost to inefficiencies. After taking sectoral allocations and inefficiencies into account, a modest funding gap of $115 million per year remains, which could be largely eliminated by focusing on lower-cost water and sanitation options. Angola's infrastructure needs are manageable relative to its fast-growing economy, as long as the country can address inefficiencies. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Infrastructure Economics,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Energy Production and Transportation,Economic Theory&Research |
| Date: | 2011–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5813&r=afr |
| By: | Francis Menjo Baye |
| Abstract: | This study attempts to carry out a comprehensive analysis of poverty, inequality and polarization trends using Cameroon household surveys collected before and during the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) process. The theoretical decomposition frameworks propelling the study are motivated mainly by the Shapley value. Empirical estimates are obtained from the software DAD 4.4 using both money-metric and child nutrition indicators, and poverty lines, with the monetary threshold derived nonparametrically. Effects within-zones account for much of monetary poverty changes than effects between-zones. The findings that inter-zone effects contribute to alleviating rural poverty while aggravating urban poverty, suggests the potential for rural–urban migration to alleviate rural poverty. Changes in money-metric poverty and health deprivation sharply contrast each other. While health poverty deteriorated, income poverty retreated. This is an indication that economic growth may not necessarily engender significant reduction in all dimensions of well-being. Changes in health poverty are driven largely by effects of redistribution, whereas for income poverty the growth component seems to be more important. Both income and non-income dimensions highlight the dominant role of within-group components in accounting for inequality trends. However, while the between-group contributions to inequality are negligible in the health dimension, they are non-negligible in the income space. In terms of levels, polarization and inequality are more of an urban than a rural problem, yet inequality and polarization worsened only in rural areas in the period 1996–2001. As a whole, polarization indices do not give dissimilar trends from standard measures of inequality. The conflicting results from income and health well-being indicators are attributable to the observation that the economic rebound in Cameroon was preceded by fiscal austerity measures embedded in the Structural Adjustment Programmes that engendered a decline in the availability of public goods. Moreover, health indicators are slow-moving compared with income or expenditure, which does not include the quality of service received from social expenditures on health and nutrition. These results have implications for policy making: in terms of income deprivation, emphasis could be on growth-based labour-intensive policies that create opportunities for the rural poor to increase their incomes; and in terms of child health and perhaps general health, emphasis could be on redistribution of health infrastructure and personnel to increase outreach. |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_207&r=afr |
| By: | Adhvaryu, Achyuta (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | I show that malaria misdiagnosis, common in resource-poor settings, decreases the expected effectiveness of an important new therapy--since only a fraction of treated individuals have malaria--and reduces the rate of learning via increased noise. Using pilot program data from Tanzania, I exploit variation in the location and timing of survey enumeration to construct reference groups composed of randomly chosen, geographically and temporally proximate acutely ill individuals. I show that learning is stronger and adoption rates are higher in villages with more misdiagnosis. Subsidizing diagnostic tools or improving initial targeting of new technologies may thus accelerate uptake through learning. |
| JEL: | O12 O33 |
| Date: | 2011–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecl:yaleco:92&r=afr |
| By: | Stephen C. Smith (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University); Sungil Kwak (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact and potential interactions of health, education and consumption dimensions of persistent poverty at the household level. Our application is to indictors of assets, undernutrition, and illiteracy drawn from the Ethiopia Rural Household Survey (ERHS) panel data set. We develop a framework for operationalizing the concept of multidimensional traps, involving two or more simultaneous distinct poverty dimensions of persistent poverty; these include a subset of cases in which an interlocking poverty trap is effectively formed as a result of deprivations functioning as complements. We test an implication of the multiple trap framework by comparing structural income dynamics across groups. We find that in the poorest of the three main agro-ecological regions in Ethiopia, those with both chronic undernutrition and illiteracy have the lowest implied equilibrium; those with one of these chronic conditions have intermediate (but still deeply poor) equilibria; and those without either condition have the highest asset equilibrium. Evidence for complementarity of persistence across dimensions of poverty - what we term an interlocking poverty trap - is found in only a limited number cases, however. We present several robustness checks for our results. |
| Keywords: | Poverty, poverty trap, Ethiopia, multidimensional poverty, interlocking poverty, regional poverty, literacy, undernutrition, asset dynamics |
| JEL: | O1 I3 |
| Date: | 2011–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2011-04&r=afr |
| By: | Tochukwu E. Nwachukwu; Peter Odigie |
| Abstract: | This study discusses the trend in Nigerian saving behaviour and reviews policy options to increase domestic saving. It also examines the determinants of private saving in Nigeria during the 1970-2007 period. It makes an important contribution to literature by evaluating the magnitude and direction of the effects of the following key policy and non-policy variables on private saving: Income growth, interest rate, fiscal policy and financial development. The framework for analysis involves the estimation of a saving rate function derived from the life cycle hypothesis while recognizing the structural characteristics of a developing economy. The study employs the Error-Correction Modelling procedure which minimizes the possibility of estimating spurious relations, while retaining long-run information. The results of the analysis show that the saving rate rises with both the growth rate of disposable income and the real interest rate on bank deposits. Public saving seems not to crowd out private saving, suggesting that government policies aimed at improving the fiscal balance have the potential of bringing about a substantial increase in the national saving rate. Finally, the degree of financial depth has a negative but insignificant impact on saving behaviour in Nigeria. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_212&r=afr |
| By: | Pushak, Nataliya; Briceno-Garmendia, Cecilia M. |
| Abstract: | Despite general economic decline and power-supply deficiencies, infrastructure made a modest net contribution of just less than half a percentage point to Zimbabwe's improved per capita growth performance in recent years. Raising the country's infrastructure endowment to that of the region's middle-income countries could boost annual growth by about 2.4 percentage points. Zimbabwe made significant progress in infrastructure in its early period as an independent state, building a national electricity network with regional interconnections, an extensive and internationally connected road network, and a water and sewer system. But the country has been unable to maintain its existing infrastructure since it became immersed in economic and political turmoil in the late 1990s. Zimbabwe now faces a number of important infrastructure challenges, the most pressing of which lie in the power and water sectors, where deteriorating conditions pose risks to the economy and public health. Zimbabwe currently spends about $0.8 billion per year on infrastructure, though $0.7 billion of this is lost to inefficiencies of various kinds. Even if these inefficiencies were fully captured, Zimbabwe would still face an infrastructure funding gap of $0.6 billion per year. That staggering figure can be reduced, however, to $0.4 billion if the country adopts a more modest spending scenario, or even to $0.1 billion under a minimalist, maintenance-only scenario. To close the gap, Zimbabwe needs to raise additional public, private-sector, and international funding, which, when coupled with the prospect of economic rebound and prudent policies, would allow the country to regain its historic infrastructure advantages. |
| Keywords: | Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Infrastructure Economics,Energy Production and Transportation,Town Water Supply and Sanitation,Water Supply and Systems |
| Date: | 2011–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5816&r=afr |
| By: | Félix BADOLO |
| Abstract: | La hausse des prix des produits agricoles sur les marchés internationaux durant la période 2006-2008 a entraîné une flambée des prix intérieurs dans certains pays en développement, mais pas dans d'autres. La littérature empirique sur la transmission des chocs des prix internationaux dans les pays en développement reste très mitigée. L'objectif de ce papier est d'évaluer la relation entre le prix du riz importé sur les marchés au Burkina Faso et le prix international, à partir de tests de cointégration linéaire et non linéaire. L'analyse se base sur des séries mensuelles de prix pour deux marchés du Burkina Faso : le marché de Sankaryaré à Ouagadougou et le marché de Dori au nord du pays. Les résultats montrent que les prix du riz importé sur ces deux marchés sont intégrés au prix international. L'élasticité de transmission de long terme apparaît importante. Le modèle TAR révèle une transmission asymétrique dont l'ampleur diffère en fonction de la nature des chocs. Les hausses du prix international se transmettent plus rapidement aux prix intérieurs que les baisses. Ces résultats s'expliquent par le pouvoir de marché des intermédiaires commerciaux, les coûts de transport et les mécanismes d'intervention du gouvernement. |
| Keywords: | marchés des produits de base, modèles autorégressifs à seuil, transmission asymétrique |
| JEL: | D40 C32 Q13 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdi:wpaper:1285&r=afr |
| By: | Peter Aling; Shakill Hassan |
| Abstract: | Short-term interest rate processes determine the term-structure of interest rates in an arbitrage-free market, and are central to the valuation of interest-rate derivatives. We obtain parameter estimates and compare the empirical fit of alternative one-factor continuous-time processes for the South African short-term interest rate (and hence of arbitrage-free term-structure models), using Gaussian estimation methods. We find support only for diffusions where the interest rate volatility is moderately sensitive to the level of the interest rate. Other common models with restrictions that either preclude this effect, or restrict it to be too high, do not fit the data. Differences in the specification of the drift function have no evident effect on model performance. |
| Keywords: | bonds and interest-rate derivatives; arbitrage theory; maximum likelihood; continuous-time short rate models; term-structure of interest rates. |
| JEL: | G12 C13 E43 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rza:wpaper:246&r=afr |
| By: | Kuikeu, Oscar |
| Abstract: | As inflation looks forever transactions, while, under the assumption of closed economy and Okun's law, we can consider that the ultimate goal of economic policy is to increase economic growth, about the debate on the suitable foreign exchange regime for Sub-Saharan African economies in the Cfa franc zone, we will examine in CEMAC, as representative of the Cfa franc zone, first, the teaching from the study of inflation (chapter 1 and chapter 2), secondly, the lessons from the study of economic growth (chapter 3 and chapter 4): in Chapter 1, the aim is to describe the strategy, of fighting against inflation, followed by BEAC, in a period of resurgence of inflation, after the devaluation of the Cfa franc in January 1994 and to check the idea, well established in the literature, of a monetary policy oriented toward the controlling inflation after the devaluation of the Cfa franc in January 1994, in Chapter 2, following Gali and Gertler (1999), we will examine the parameters associated to the neo-keynesian phillips curve of the CEMAC, because, those parameters describe the behavior of agents against price, we will have we will have some teachings about the inflation persistance in CEMAC, in Chapter 3, the aim is to study the effect on the cameroonian's economic growth of its real exchange rate misalignment, otherwise, episodes of appreciation or depreciation of the real exchange rate, because, we can show that the real exchange rate misalignment is an indicator of the stability or the instability of the macroeconomic framework, we will have some teachings about the sensibility of the cameroonian economy to the macroeconomic framework, in Chapter 4, the aim is to study the standard of living convergence. Oscar KUIKEU is Doctor in economics from the University of Pau (FRANCE). |
| Keywords: | C22; E31 |
| JEL: | E31 C22 |
| Date: | 2011–09–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:33710&r=afr |
| By: | Titeca, Kristof; Samson Omwa, Samuel |
| Abstract: | In response to the orphan crisis, a number of community initiatives have proliferated to enhance service delivery to OVCs (Orphans and other Vulnerable Children). Part of the literature paints a bleak and pessimistic picture: it believes that community based support interventions anchored on the family are faltering under the weight of increasing number of orphans; while others argue that communities are innovative and resilient to the extent that they have devised new coping strategies. The paper shows how OVC community responses in Northern Uganda are under severe pressure from a range of factors; but how these community initiatives are not collapsing – as the ‘social rupture’ thesis predicts. Instead, these community initiatives are dynamic and constantly evolving through various mechanisms to respond to the challenges of meeting the needs of the orphans. The paper shows how some of these initiatives are more successful than others in doing so. |
| Date: | 2011–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iob:dpaper:2011004&r=afr |
| By: | Paul Ningaye; Laurent Ndjanyou; Guy Marcel Saakou |
| Abstract: | The study examined the usefulness and relevance of the contingent valuation method (CVM) in community-based (CB) project planning and implementation. To elicit willingness to pay (WTP) values for the restocking of Lake Bamendjim with Tilapia nilotica and Heterotis niloticus fish species, the study used pre-tested questionnaires interviewer-administered to 1,000 randomly selected households in the Bambalang Region of Cameroon.The datawere elicitedwith the conventional referendumdesign and analysed using a referendum model. Empirical findings indicated that about 85% of the sampled households were willing to pay about CFAF1,054 (US$2.1) for the restocking project. This amount was found to be significantly related to the starting price used in the referendum design, household income, the gender of the respondent, the age of the respondent, household poverty status, and previous participation of a household in a community development project.The findings prompted the following recommendations. Firstly, in order to reduce community burden due to cash constraints, it is advisable for the mean estimate obtained for the scheme to be split into four instalments over a year. Secondly, since the success of the scheme largely depends on the governing roles of the scheme, it is further advisable for the community to allowthemanagement of the scheme to be handled by the elderly community members. Finally, it will be important during the financing of the scheme, to levy wealthier household heads an amount sufficient to subsidize poorer household heads who cannot afford to pay the threshold price. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_211&r=afr |
| By: | Alarudeen Aminu |
| Abstract: | The study investigated the impact Nigeria’s government wage review of 1998 had on the differential in pay for public and private sector workers of the same educational qualifications and ages. Empirical analysis based on the Mincerian human capital model was carried out for urban male employees only (as they constitute a homogeneous group) in the public and private sectors. The results obtained show that before the wage review of 1998, public sector workers suffered a pay disadvantage of 6.78% while about one year after the review, public sector workers enjoyed a premium of 35.07%. In the absence of any wage reduction in the private sector, this result suggests that the implementation of the 1998 wage review succeeded in making public sector workers better remunerated than their private sector counterparts and it can be concluded that the wage increase in the public sector achieved its disguised goal of redressing the age-long poor pay in the sector. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_223&r=afr |
| By: | Tony Castleman (Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops and applies a methodology for measuring human recognition, which is defined as the acknowledgement provided to an individual by other individuals, groups, or organizations that he is of inherent value with intrinsic qualities in common with the recognizer. A framework is developed that organizes the sources of human recognition into various domains of an individual's life. The framework is used to develop an index of indicators that measures human recognition received in each of the domains and combines these domain-specific measures into a single overall measure of human recognition received. Two empirical applications of the index are presented with cross-sectional survey data from India and Kenya. Exploratory factor analysis is used to generate measures of human recognition with the index, and the resulting measures are used in multivariate regression models of nutritional status. Results from both datasets provide evidence that human recognition is a significant, independent, positive determinant of nutritional status, controlling for socio-economic characteristics. The method and applications demonstrate how latent, intangible aspects of development such as human recognition can be measured and indicate that further empirical work on the determinants and effects of human recognition is both feasible and needed. |
| Keywords: | human recognition, nutrition, health, dehumanization, dignity, respect, domestic violence, measurement, India, Kenya, economic development, poverty |
| JEL: | I12 I31 O15 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2011-10&r=afr |
| By: | Ahmadu U. Sanda |
| Abstract: | This study examined the relationship between board independence and firm financial performance, using data of varying sample size (ranging from 89 firms for regression to 205 firms for descriptive analysis) obtained from the Nigerian Stock Exchange for the period 1996 through 2004. The key results were that share ownership was highly concentrated inNigeria, and this structure tended to engender board structureswith close family affiliations in which the chief executive officers (CEOs) were activemembers of audit committees.While family affiliation of board members was found to support firm growth, we found evidence that audit committee membership of chief executives hurt firm performance. We also found that foreign chief executives performed better than their local counterparts. These results suggested the need for Nigerian firms to adopt better corporate governance mechanisms in order to make the boards of directors more independent, avoid unnecessary intervention of CEOs in important committees, and in that way aid financial performance. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_213&r=afr |
| By: | William M. Fonta; Hyacinth E. Ichoku; Emmanuel Nwosu |
| Abstract: | The study examined the usefulness and relevance of the contingent valuation method (CVM) in community-based (CB) project planning and implementation. To elicit willingness to pay (WTP) values for the restocking of Lake Bamendjim with Tilapia nilotica and Heterotis niloticus fish species, the study used pre-tested questionnaires interviewer-administered to 1,000 randomly selected households in the Bambalang Region of Cameroon.The datawere elicitedwith the conventional referendumdesign and analysed using a referendum model. Empirical findings indicated that about 85% of the sampled households were willing to pay about CFAF1,054 (US$2.1) for the restocking project. This amount was found to be significantly related to the starting price used in the referendum design, household income, the gender of the respondent, the age of the respondent, household poverty status, and previous participation of a household in a community development project.The findings prompted the following recommendations. Firstly, in order to reduce community burden due to cash constraints, it is advisable for the mean estimate obtained for the scheme to be split into four instalments over a year. Secondly, since the success of the scheme largely depends on the governing roles of the scheme, it is further advisable for the community to allowthemanagement of the scheme to be handled by the elderly community members. Finally, it will be important during the financing of the scheme, to levy wealthier household heads an amount sufficient to subsidize poorer household heads who cannot afford to pay the threshold price. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_210&r=afr |
| By: | Kisukyabo Simwaka; Leslie Mkandawire |
| Abstract: | The Malawi kwacha was floated in February 1994. Since then, the Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) has periodically intervened in the foreign exchange market. This report analyses the effectiveness of foreign exchange market interventions by RBM. We used a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH; 1,1) model to simultaneously estimate the effect of intervention on the mean and volatility of the kwacha. We also ran an equilibrium exchange rate model and use the equilibrium exchange rate criterion to compare results with those from the GARCH model. Using monthly exchange rates and official intervention data from January 1995 to June 2008, results from the GARCH model indicated that net sales of United States dollars by RBM depreciate, rather than appreciate, the kwacha. Empirically, this implies the RBM “leans against the wind”, i.e., the RBM intervenes to reduce, but not reverse, around-trend exchange rate depreciation. However, results from the GARCH model for the post-2003 period indicated that RBM intervention in the market stabilizes the kwacha. In general, results from both the GARCH model and the real equilibrium exchange rate criterion for the entire study period showed that RBM interventions have been associated with increased exchange rate volatility, except during the post-2003 period. The implication of this finding is that intervention can only have a temporary influence on the exchange rate, as it is difficult to find empirical evidence showing that intervention has a longlasting, quantitatively significant effect. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_216&r=afr |
| By: | Paulo, Antonio Manuel |
| Abstract: | Apresentado no Seminário Sobre Perspectivas de Produção e Comercialização AgrÃcola na Campanha 2010/2011 Organizado pela Direcção de Economia do Ministério da Agricultura de Moçambique Maputo, 22 de Agosto de 2011; Paper Presented at Market Outlook Conference for 2010/2011 Agricultural Crop season. Organized by the Directorate of Economics, Ministry of Agriculture of Mozambique Maputo, August 22th, 2011. |
| Keywords: | Moçambique, milho branco, comércio transfronteiriço, integração de mercados, International Relations/Trade, Marketing, Q13, Q17, Q18, |
| Date: | 2011–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:miscpa:115598&r=afr |
| By: | Sunday A. Khan |
| Abstract: | Cameroon is a small open economy that relies on the export of a few primary products for its foreign exchange earnings. The low rate of savings cannot meet the investment requirements, and investment has been declining despite many years of economic reform. There is consequently a resource gap that has to be filled by both official and private resource inflows, but these resource inflows have similarly been declining. They have also become highly volatile, thus undermining their positive effects on capital formation and consequently on economic growth and poverty reduction. This study examined the effect of resource inflows and their volatility on domestic investment in Cameroon. The results show that inflow volatility is high and that export revenue volatility is the prime mover of aggregate volatility. There is no evidence of inflow volatilities reinforcing or offsetting each other. Aggregate resource flow is important for both public and private domestic investment, while its volatility is detrimental. When total resource flows is disaggregated into export revenue, official flows, foreign direct investment and “other private flows”, only export revenue and “other private flows” significantly affect private investment, indicating that the impact on investment varies depending on the type of inflow. The volatility of official flows and export revenue hurts investment directly, but also negates the influence of the other inflows on both private and public investment. The study suggests that government make more efforts to attract more resource flows into the country and, especially, to reduce their volatility. Diversifying export supplies to minimize price fluctuations, complying with aid conditionalities (this should be facilitated with the country ownership of the poverty reduction strategy), developing a robust and transparent financial sector and stock exchange, and avoiding frequent and unpredictable policy shifts are among the actions that can go a long way to reduce resource flow volatility. Domestic investment, and consequently growth and poverty reduction, should be the main beneficiaries. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_221&r=afr |
| By: | Bédia F. Aka; Souleymane S. Diallo |
| Abstract: | The objective of this paper is to examine how a small open economy such as Côte d’Ivoire (CI) can obtain growth-based internal tax resources, and how the tax system affects households and individuals through relative prices. A microsimulated CGE model is used to analyse the effects of an alternative tax system on households by utilizing a survey. It is postulated that the military and political crisis that started in 1999 with the first coup d’etat in Côte d’Ivoire is transitory and that CI has an internal tax policy capacity. This paper indicates that an alternative tax structure can reduce distortion in regional poverty, inequality for households, and in cities and small areas of the country. A model is formulated using Côte d’Ivoire’s 1998-based social accounting matrix and the 1998 population survey of 4,200 households. The main findings of this study are that the post-crisis tax policies envisioned by the government (reducing the tax rate on firms, reducing import taxes and increasing taxes on household income) result in an increase in poverty and inequality at the regional, city and small area levels. |
| Date: | 2011–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_218&r=afr |
| By: | Adam Mugume |
| Abstract: | By using the non-structural models of competitive behaviour—the Panzar-Rosse model—the study measures competition and emphasizes the competitive conduct of banks without using explicit information about the structure of the market. Estimations indicate monopolistic competition, competition being weaker in 1995–1999 compared with 2000–2005. Moreover, the relationship between competition, measuring conduct, and concentration measuring the market structure, is negative and statistically significant; which could suggest that a few large banks can restrict competition. Overall, the results suggest that while competition in the Ugandan banking sector falls within a range of estimates for comparator markets, it tends to be on the weaker side. The structural approach to model competition includes the structure-conductperformance(SCP) paradigm and the efficiency hypothesis. Using the SCP framework, we investigate whether a highly concentrated market causes collusive behaviour among larger banks resulting in superior market performance; whereas under the efficiency hypothesis we test whether it is the efficiency of larger banks that makes for enhanced performance. Using Granger causation test, we establish that the efficiency Granger causes concentration and using instrumental variable approach, the study establishes that market power and concentration as measured by market share and Herfindahl index, respectively, positively affect bank profitability. In addition, bank efficiency also affects bank profitability. Other factors that affect bank profitability include operational costs, taxation and core capital requirement. A major policy implication derived from this analysis is that the Ugandan banking system has been subject to deep structural transformation since the early 1990s. Advances in information technology, liberalization of international capital movement, consolidation and privatization have permitted economies of scale in the production and distribution of services and increased risk diversification. These forces have led to lower costs and, undoubtedly, higher efficiency. However, to ensure that lower costs are passed through to households and firms, greater efficiency must be accompanied by a similar strengthening in the competitive environment in the banking sector. |
| Date: | 2010–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aer:rpaper:rp_203&r=afr |