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Causal effects of PetroCaribe on sustainable development: a synthetic control analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Acel Jardón

    (Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam)

  • Onno Kuik

    (Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam)

  • Richard S.J. Tol

    (Department of Economics, University of Sussex
    Department of Spatial Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
    Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam
    Tinbergen Institute, Amsterdam)

Abstract
We examine the causal effects of the energy subsidy programme PetroCaribe in the three dimensions of sustainable development: economic, social and environmental. We use the synthetic control method to construct a counterfactual and compare it to the outcomes of the beneficiary countries and thus estimate the magnitude and direction of the PetroCaribe effect. PetroCaribe had a positive effect on economic growth in most of the beneficiary countries without a deterioration of their environmental quality. However, this economic boost was not followed by an improvement in social development.

Suggested Citation

  • Acel Jardón & Onno Kuik & Richard S.J. Tol, 2018. "Causal effects of PetroCaribe on sustainable development: a synthetic control analysis," Working Paper Series 0918, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:sus:susewp:0918
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:cii:cepiie:2014-q4-140-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Laurent Gobillon & Thierry Magnac, 2016. "Regional Policy Evaluation: Interactive Fixed Effects and Synthetic Controls," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(3), pages 535-551, July.
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    5. Bruno Ferman & Cristine Pinto & Vitor Possebom, 2020. "Cherry Picking with Synthetic Controls," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 510-532, March.
    6. Alberto Abadie & Alexis Diamond & Jens Hainmueller, 2015. "Comparative Politics and the Synthetic Control Method," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(2), pages 495-510, February.
    7. Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
    8. Gabriel Di Bella & Mr. Lawrence Norton & Mr. Joseph Ntamatungiro & Ms. Sumiko Ogawa & Issouf Samaké & Marika Santoro, 2015. "Energy Subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stocktaking and Policy Challenges," IMF Working Papers 2015/030, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Andreas Billmeier & Tommaso Nannicini, 2013. "Assessing Economic Liberalization Episodes: A Synthetic Control Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 983-1001, July.
    10. Jean-Marc Burniaux & Jean Chateau, 2014. "Greenhouse gases mitigation potential and economic efficiency of phasing-out fossil fuel subsidies," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 140, pages 71-88.
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    12. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
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    Cited by:

    1. Becker, Maike & Pfeifer, Gregor & Schweikert, Karsten, 2021. "Price Effects of the Austrian Fuel Price Fixing Act: A Synthetic Control Study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Aray, Henry & Vera, David, 2024. "A tale of oil production collapse," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    energy subsidy; synthetic control method; sustainable development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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