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Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand: An Outlook to 2020

Author

Listed:
  • Zafer Dilaver

    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

  • Lester C Hunt

    (Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), Department of Economics, University of Surrey)

Abstract
This paper investigates the relationship between Turkish aggregate electricity consumption, GDP and electricity prices in order to forecast future Turkish aggregate electricity demand. To achieve this, an aggregate electricity demand function for Turkey is estimated by applying the structural time series technique to annual data over the period 1960 to 2008. The results suggest that GDP, electricity prices and an underlying energy demand trend (UEDT) are all important drivers of Turkish electricity demand. The estimated income and price elasticities are found to be 0.17 and -0.11 respectively with the estimated UEDT found to be generally upward sloping (electricity using) but at a generally decreasing rate. Based on the estimated equation, and different forecast assumptions, it is predicted that Turkish aggregate electricity demand will be somewhere between 259 TWh and 368 TWh in 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Zafer Dilaver & Lester C Hunt, 2011. "Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand: An Outlook to 2020," Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics Discussion Papers (SEEDS) 132, Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    • Handle: RePEc:sur:seedps:132
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    File URL: https://repec.som.surrey.ac.uk/seeds/SEEDS132.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamzacebi, Coskun, 2007. "Forecasting of Turkey's net electricity energy consumption on sectoral bases," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 2009-2016, March.
    2. Hunt, Lester C. & Judge, Guy & Ninomiya, Yasushi, 2003. "Underlying trends and seasonality in UK energy demand: a sectoral analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 93-118, January.
    3. Amarawickrama, Himanshu A. & Hunt, Lester C., 2008. "Electricity demand for Sri Lanka: A time series analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 724-739.
    4. Dilaver, Zafer & Hunt, Lester C, 2011. "Modelling and forecasting Turkish residential electricity demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 3117-3127, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Turkish Turkish Aggregate Electricity Demand; Structural Time Series Model (STSM); Energy Demand Modelling and Future Scenarios.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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