[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/sru/ssewps/2016-15.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Deep Transitions: Emergence, Acceleration, Stabilization and Directionality

Author

Listed:
  • Johan Schot

    (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, UK)

  • Laur Kanger

    (Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, UK)

Abstract
The unfolding of industrial modernity has led to high levels of wealth and welfare in the Western world but also to increasing global ecological degradation and social inequality. The routine mode of operation of a wide range of socio-technical systems, forming the material backbone of contemporary societies, has substantially contributed to these outcomes. This paper proposes that all these systems can be seen as a surface expression of fundamental meta-rules that for the past 250 years have driven the evolution of these systems and system innovation towards particular directions, thereby constituting the First Deep Transition. To meet the accumulated social and ecological challenges would therefore require a radical change not only in socio-technical systems but also in meta-rules underlying their functioning – the Second Deep Transition. This paper develops a new theoretical framework aiming to explain the emergence, acceleration, stabilization and directionality of Deep Transitions. It does so through the synthesis of three strands of literature: individual socio-technical systems, interconnected systems and industrialization-related macro-trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Johan Schot & Laur Kanger, 2016. "Deep Transitions: Emergence, Acceleration, Stabilization and Directionality," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-15, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    • Handle: RePEc:sru:ssewps:2016-15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/swps2016-15
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mazzucato, Mariana & Semieniuk, Gregor, 2018. "Financing renewable energy: Who is financing what and why it matters," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 8-22.
    2. Smith, Adrian & Stirling, Andy & Berkhout, Frans, 2005. "The governance of sustainable socio-technical transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1491-1510, December.
    3. Philip T. Hoffman, 2015. "Why Did Europe Conquer the World?," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10452.
    4. Mariana Mazzucato & Carlota Perez, 2014. "Innovation as Growth Policy: the challenge for Europe," SPRU Working Paper Series 2014-13, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    5. David H. Autor & David Dorn, 2013. "The Growth of Low-Skill Service Jobs and the Polarization of the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(5), pages 1553-1597, August.
    6. Rotolo, Daniele & Hicks, Diana & Martin, Ben R., 2015. "What is an emerging technology?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(10), pages 1827-1843.
    7. Arthur, W Brian, 1989. "Competing Technologies, Increasing Returns, and Lock-In by Historical Events," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(394), pages 116-131, March.
    8. Graham M Turner, 2008. "A Comparison of the Limits to Growth with Thirty Years of Reality," Socio-Economics and the Environment in Discussion (SEED) Working Paper Series 2008-09, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems.
    9. Kingston, Christopher & Caballero, Gonzalo, 2009. "Comparing theories of institutional change," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(2), pages 151-180, August.
    10. Penna, Caetano C.R. & Geels, Frank W., 2015. "Climate change and the slow reorientation of the American car industry (1979–2012): An application and extension of the Dialectic Issue LifeCycle (DILC) model," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(5), pages 1029-1048.
    11. Karoline Rogge, 2016. "Reviewing the evidence on the innovation impact of the EU Emission Trading System," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-09, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    12. Carlota Perez, 2009. "The double bubble at the turn of the century: technological roots and structural implications," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 33(4), pages 779-805, July.
    13. Geels, Frank W., 2006. "The hygienic transition from cesspools to sewer systems (1840-1930): The dynamics of regime transformation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1069-1082, September.
    14. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7073 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Nicola Grassano & Daniele Rotolo & Joshua Hutton & Frédérique Lang & Michael M. Hopkins, 2017. "Funding Data from Publication Acknowledgments: Coverage, Uses, and Limitations," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 68(4), pages 999-1017, April.
    16. Markard, Jochen & Truffer, Bernhard, 2008. "Technological innovation systems and the multi-level perspective: Towards an integrated framework," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 596-615, May.
    17. Brousseau, Eric & Garrouste, Pierre & Raynaud, Emmanuel, 2011. "Institutional changes: Alternative theories and consequences for institutional design," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 3-19.
    18. Genus, Audley & Coles, Anne-Marie, 2008. "Rethinking the multi-level perspective of technological transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 1436-1445, October.
    19. Gregor Semieniuk, 2016. "Fossil energy in economic growth: A study of the energy direction of technical change, 1950-2012," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-11, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    20. David, Paul A, 1985. "Clio and the Economics of QWERTY," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 332-337, May.
    21. Cullen S Hendrix & Idean Salehyan, 2012. "Climate change, rainfall, and social conflict in Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(1), pages 35-50, January.
    22. Elzen, Boelie & Geels, Frank W. & Leeuwis, Cees & van Mierlo, Barbara, 2011. "Normative contestation in transitions 'in the making': Animal welfare concerns and system innovation in pig husbandry," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 263-275, March.
    23. Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056.
    24. Wells, Peter & Nieuwenhuis, Paul, 2012. "Transition failure: Understanding continuity in the automotive industry," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 1681-1692.
    25. Andy Stirling, 2016. "Precaution in the Governance of Technology," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-14, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    26. Bob Jessop, 2002. "Critical forum," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(2), pages 249-250, April.
    27. Lucas Bernard & Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan & Thomas I. Palley & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Time scales and mechanisms of economic cycles: a review of theories of long waves," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 87-107, January.
    28. Mari Martiskainen, 2016. "The role of community leadership in the development of grassroots innovations," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-10, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    29. Geels, Frank W. & Schot, Johan, 2007. "Typology of sociotechnical transition pathways," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 399-417, April.
    30. Foxon, Timothy J., 2013. "Transition pathways for a UK low carbon electricity future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 10-24.
    31. Hodson, Mike & Marvin, Simon, 2010. "Can cities shape socio-technical transitions and how would we know if they were?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 477-485, May.
    32. Kaplinsky, Raphael, 2011. "Schumacher meets Schumpeter: Appropriate technology below the radar," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 193-203, March.
    33. Laur Kanger & Johan Schot, 2016. "User-made immobilities: a transitions perspective," Mobilities, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 598-613, August.
    34. Verbong, Geert & Geels, Frank, 2007. "The ongoing energy transition: Lessons from a socio-technical, multi-level analysis of the Dutch electricity system (1960-2004)," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 1025-1037, February.
    35. Lucy Baker & Peter Newell & Jon Phillips, 2014. "The Political Economy of Energy Transitions: The Case of South Africa," New Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 791-818, December.
    36. Fusari, Angelo & Reati, Angelo, 2013. "Endogenizing technical change: Uncertainty, profits, entrepreneurship. A long-term view of sectoral dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 76-100.
    37. Penna, Caetano C.R. & Geels, Frank W., 2012. "Multi-dimensional struggles in the greening of industry: A dialectic issue lifecycle model and case study," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 79(6), pages 999-1020.
    38. Raven, R.P.J.M. & Verbong, G.P.J., 2009. "Boundary crossing innovations: Case studies from the energy domain," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 85-93.
    39. Carlota Perez, 2002. "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2640.
    40. Lachman, Daniël A., 2013. "A survey and review of approaches to study transitions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 269-276.
    41. Geels, Frank W., 2002. "Technological transitions as evolutionary reconfiguration processes: a multi-level perspective and a case-study," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1257-1274, December.
    42. Carlota Perez, 2010. "Technological revolutions and techno-economic paradigms," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 34(1), pages 185-202, January.
    43. World Bank, 2012. "Inclusive Green Growth : The Pathway to Sustainable Development," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 6058.
    44. Rainer Metz, 2011. "Do Kondratieff waves exist? How time series techniques can help to solve the problem," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(3), pages 205-238, October.
    45. Laur Kanger & Johan Schot, 2016. "User-made Immobilities: A Transitions Perspective," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-13, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    46. Gudrun Østby, 2008. "Polarization, Horizontal Inequalities and Violent Civil Conflict," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 45(2), pages 143-162, March.
    47. Ciarli, Tommaso & Valente, Marco, 2016. "The complex interactions between economic growth and market concentration in a model of structural change," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 38-54.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dierk Bauknecht & Allan Dahl Andersen & Karoline Dunne, 2020. "Challenges for electricity network governance in Energy transitions: Insights from Norway," Working Papers on Innovation Studies 20200115, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
    2. Ohid Yaqub, 2016. "Serendipity: Towards a taxonomy and a theory," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-17, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    3. Mariana Mazzucato & Douglas K Robinson, 2016. "Lost in space? NASA and the changing publicprivate eco-system in space," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-20, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Jan Fagerberg & Staffan Laestadius & Ben R. Martin, 2016. "The Triple Challenge for Europe: The Economy, Climate Change, and Governance," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(3), pages 178-204, May.
    5. Marshall, Fiona & Dolley, Jonathan, 2019. "Transformative innovation in peri-urban Asia," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 983-992.
    6. Könnölä, Totti & Eloranta, Ville & Turunen, Taija & Salo, Ahti, 2021. "Transformative governance of innovation ecosystems," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    7. Matthews, Nicholas, 2021. "The role of sustainability in the UK synthetic biology programme," SocArXiv vj9nm, Center for Open Science.
    8. Sam Wilkinson & Michele John & Gregory M. Morrison, 2021. "Rooftop PV and the Renewable Energy Transition; a Review of Driving Forces and Analytical Frameworks," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-25, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Schot, Johan & Kanger, Laur, 2018. "Deep transitions: Emergence, acceleration, stabilization and directionality," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(6), pages 1045-1059.
    2. Cheng Wang & Tao Lv & Rongjiang Cai & Jianfeng Xu & Liya Wang, 2022. "Bibliometric Analysis of Multi-Level Perspective on Sustainability Transition Research," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-31, March.
    3. Laur Kanger & Johan Schot, 2016. "User-made Immobilities: A Transitions Perspective," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-13, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    4. Li, Francis G.N. & Trutnevyte, Evelina & Strachan, Neil, 2015. "A review of socio-technical energy transition (STET) models," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 290-305.
    5. Foxon, Timothy J., 2011. "A coevolutionary framework for analysing a transition to a sustainable low carbon economy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2258-2267.
    6. Sorrell, Steve, 2018. "Explaining sociotechnical transitions: A critical realist perspective," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(7), pages 1267-1282.
    7. Zolfagharian, Mohammadreza & Walrave, Bob & Raven, Rob & Romme, A. Georges L., 2019. "Studying transitions: Past, present, and future," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(9), pages 1-1.
    8. Safarzyńska, Karolina & Frenken, Koen & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2012. "Evolutionary theorizing and modeling of sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1011-1024.
    9. Markard, Jochen & Raven, Rob & Truffer, Bernhard, 2012. "Sustainability transitions: An emerging field of research and its prospects," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 955-967.
    10. Coenen, Lars & Benneworth, Paul & Truffer, Bernhard, 2012. "Toward a spatial perspective on sustainability transitions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 968-979.
    11. Mariana Mazzucato & Douglas K Robinson, 2016. "Lost in space? NASA and the changing publicprivate eco-system in space," SPRU Working Paper Series 2016-20, SPRU - Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex Business School.
    12. Fuenfschilling, Lea & Truffer, Bernhard, 2014. "The structuration of socio-technical regimes—Conceptual foundations from institutional theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 772-791.
    13. Garud, Raghu & Gehman, Joel, 2012. "Metatheoretical perspectives on sustainability journeys: Evolutionary, relational and durational," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 980-995.
    14. Marco Gallegati, 2019. "A system for dating long wave phases in economic development," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 803-822, July.
    15. Frank W. Geels, 2013. "The Impact of the Financial and Economic Crisis on Sustainability Transitions: Financial Investment, Governance and Public Discourse. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 39," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47014.
    16. Foxon, Timothy J. & Pearson, Peter J.G. & Arapostathis, Stathis & Carlsson-Hyslop, Anna & Thornton, Judith, 2013. "Branching points for transition pathways: assessing responses of actors to challenges on pathways to a low carbon future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 146-158.
    17. Jano-Ito, Marco A. & Crawford-Brown, Douglas, 2016. "Socio-technical analysis of the electricity sector of Mexico: Its historical evolution and implications for a transition towards low-carbon development," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 567-590.
    18. María Elena López Reyes & Willem A. Zwagers & Ingrid J. Mulder, 2020. "Considering the Human-Dimension to Make Sustainable Transitions Actionable," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-25, October.
    19. Pesch, Udo, 2015. "Tracing discursive space: Agency and change in sustainability transitions," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 379-388.
    20. Svensson, Oscar & Nikoleris, Alexandra, 2018. "Structure reconsidered: Towards new foundations of explanatory transitions theory," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 462-473.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sru:ssewps:2016-15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: University of Sussex Business School Communications Team (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/spessuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.