[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/spa/wpaper/2019wpecon38.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Can Workers' Increased Pessimism about the Labor Market Conditions Raise Unemployment?

Author

Listed:
  • Jaylson Jair da Silveira
  • Gilberto Tadeu Lima
Abstract
As there is evidence on persistent heterogeneity in unemployment expectations across workers, it is a reasonable premise that the expected cost of job loss and the provision of effort on the job are also heterogeneous across workers. Based on such premise, we show that the positive correlation between pessimistic unemployment expectations and actual unemployment which is observed with survey data can arise in a heterogeneous expectations-augmented efficiency wage model through a composition effect which is empirically testable.

Suggested Citation

  • Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2019. "Can Workers' Increased Pessimism about the Labor Market Conditions Raise Unemployment?," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_38, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    • Handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2019wpecon38
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.repec.eae.fea.usp.br/documentos/Silveira_Lima_38WP.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gary Charness, 2004. "Attribution and Reciprocity in an Experimental Labor Market," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 22(3), pages 665-688, July.
    2. Andreas Orland, 2017. "Personality Traits And The Perception Of Macroeconomic Indicators: Survey Evidence," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(4), pages 150-172, October.
    3. Theresa Kuchler & Basit Zafar, 2019. "Personal Experiences and Expectations about Aggregate Outcomes," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(5), pages 2491-2542, October.
    4. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
    5. Sylvain Leduc & Keith Sill, 2013. "Expectations and Economic Fluctuations: An Analysis Using Survey Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1352-1367, October.
    6. Goldsmith, Arthur H. & Veum, Jonathan R. & Darity, William Jr., 2000. "Working hard for the money? Efficiency wages and worker effort," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 351-385, August.
    7. Uri Gneezy & John A List, 2006. "Putting Behavioral Economics to Work: Testing for Gift Exchange in Labor Markets Using Field Experiments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(5), pages 1365-1384, September.
    8. Ana Rute Cardoso & Annalisa Loviglio & Lavinia Piemontese, 2016. "Misperceptions of unemployment and individual labor market outcomes," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-22, December.
    9. Gary Charness & Peter Kuhn, 2007. "Does Pay Inequality Affect Worker Effort? Experimental Evidence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 25(4), pages 693-723.
    10. Sorić, Petar & Lolić, Ivana & Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2019. "Unemployment expectations: A socio-demographic analysis of the effect of news," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 64-74.
    11. Bellemare, Charles & Shearer, Bruce, 2009. "Gift giving and worker productivity: Evidence from a firm-level experiment," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 233-244, September.
    12. Richard T. Curtin, 2003. "Unemployment Expectations: The Impact of Private Information on Income Uncertainty," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 49(4), pages 539-554, December.
    13. Peter Cappelli & Keith Chauvin, 1991. "An Interplant Test of the Efficiency Wage Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(3), pages 769-787.
    14. Garz, Marcel, 2013. "Unemployment expectations, excessive pessimism, and news coverage," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 156-168.
    15. Dickerson, Andy & Green, Francis, 2012. "Fears and realisations of employment insecurity," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 198-210.
    16. Shapiro, Carl & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1984. "Equilibrium Unemployment as a Worker Discipline Device," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 433-444, June.
    17. Carl M. Campbell III & Kunal S. Kamlani, 1997. "The Reasons for Wage Rigidity: Evidence from a Survey of Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(3), pages 759-789.
    18. Girardi, Alessandro, 2014. "Expectations and macroeconomic fluctuations in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(2), pages 315-318.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liu, Tie-Ying & Lin, Ye, 2023. "Does global warming affect unemployment? International evidence," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 991-1005.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. da Silveira, Jaylson Jair & Lima, Gilberto Tadeu, 2021. "Wage inequality as a source of endogenous macroeconomic fluctuations," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 35-52.
    2. Eduardo Monte Jorge Hey Martins & Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2021. "Heterogeneity in the extraction of labor from labor power and persistence of wage inequality," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(2), pages 260-285, May.
    3. Jaylson Jair da Silveira & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2016. "Effort Elicitation, Wage Differentials and Income Distribution in A Wage-Led Growth Regime," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(1), pages 44-75, February.
    4. Sebastian Kube & Michel André Maréchal & Clemens Puppe, 2013. "Do Wage Cuts Damage Work Morale? Evidence From A Natural Field Experiment," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 853-870, August.
    5. Simon Gächter & Daniele Nosenzo & Martin Sefton, 2012. "The Impact of Social Comparisons on Reciprocity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(4), pages 1346-1367, December.
    6. Charness, Gary & Kuhn, Peter, 2011. "Lab Labor: What Can Labor Economists Learn from the Lab?," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 3, pages 229-330, Elsevier.
    7. Simon Gächter & Daniele Nosenzo & Martin Sefton, 2012. "The Impact of Social Comparisons on Reciprocity," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 114(4), pages 1346-1367, December.
    8. Gächter, Simon & Thöni, Christian, 2010. "Social comparison and performance: Experimental evidence on the fair wage-effort hypothesis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 531-543, December.
    9. Hernán Bejarano & Brice Corgnet & Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, 2019. "Labor Contracts, Gift-Exchange and Reference Wages: Your Gift Need Not Be Mine!," Working Papers 19-26, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
    10. Gächter, Simon & Thöni, Christian, 2010. "Social comparison and performance: Experimental evidence on the fair wage-effort hypothesis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 531-543, December.
    11. Maximiano, Sandra & Sloof, Randolph & Sonnemans, Joep, 2013. "Gift exchange and the separation of ownership and control," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 41-60.
    12. Constança Esteves-Sorenson, 2018. "Gift Exchange in the Workplace: Addressing the Conflicting Evidence with a Careful Test," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(9), pages 4365-4388, September.
    13. Bejarano, Hernán & Corgnet, Brice & Gómez-Miñambres, Joaquín, 2021. "Economic stability promotes gift-exchange in the workplace," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 374-398.
    14. Fortuna Casoria & Arno Riedl, 2013. "Experimental Labor Markets And Policy Considerations: Incomplete Contracts And Macroeconomic Aspects," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 398-420, July.
    15. Richard A. Parsons, 2013. "An Empirical Test of the Efficiency Wage Hypothesis," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 16(3), pages 369-387.
    16. Matthieu Chemin & Joost DeLaat & André Kurmann, 2011. "Reciprocity in Labor Relations: Evidence from a Field Experiment with Long-Term Relationships," Cahiers de recherche 1127, CIRPEE.
    17. Dhami, Sanjit & Wei, Mengxing & al-Nowaihi, Ali, 2023. "Classical and belief-based gift exchange models: Theory and evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 171-196.
    18. Nickolas Gagnon & Charles N. Noussair, 2020. "Reciprocity Under Brief And Long‐Time Delays," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1517-1530, July.
    19. Fortuna Casoria & Arno Riedl, 2013. "Experimental Labor Markets And Policy Considerations: Incomplete Contracts And Macroeconomic Aspects," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 398-420, July.
    20. Faralla, Valeria & Borà, Guido & Innocenti, Alessandro & Novarese, Marco, 2020. "Promises in group decision making," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 1-11.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor market conditions; unemployment expectations; unemployment rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spa:wpaper:2019wpecon38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Pedro Garcia Duarte (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/deuspbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.