[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/967.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The empirical modelling of house prices and debt revisited. A policy-oriented perspective

Author

Listed:
Abstract
The recent boom in house prices in many countries during the Covid-19 pandemic and the possibility of household financial distress are of concern among some central banks. We revisit the empirical modelling of house prices and household debt with a policy-oriented perspective using Norwegian data over the last four decades within the cointegrated VAR model. Our findings suggest, in line with previous work, a long-run mutually reinforcing relationship between these financial magnitudes, and thus the potential for the build-up of financial instabilities and spillover effects to the real economy. Applying a control analysis, we find that both house prices and debt are controllable magnitudes to some pre-specified target levels through the mortgage interest rate, which enables the central bank to reduce large fluctuations and bubble tendencies in the housing market. The present control analysis thus provides some useful policy implications from empirically relevant representations of two important financial factors entering the decision process of the policy maker.

Suggested Citation

  • Pål Boug & Håvard Hungnes & Takamitsu Kurita, 2021. "The empirical modelling of house prices and debt revisited. A policy-oriented perspective," Discussion Papers 967, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:967
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/en/priser-og-prisindekser/boligpriser-og-boligprisindekser/artikler/the-empirical-modelling-of-house-prices-and-debt-revisited-a-policy-oriented-perspective/_/attachment/inline/f27d1df6-11d4-4065-a243-c707887ebe82:baa3d9d68be588e1375c73923d567803a2940f2f/DP967_web.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer Castle & Takamitsu Kurita, 2022. "Structural relationships between cryptocurrency prices and monetary policy indicators," Economics Series Working Papers 972, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; household debt; econometric modelling; cointegrated VAR; policy control analysis; simulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:967. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: L Maasø (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbgvno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.