[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ssb/dispap/671.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modelling the heuristic dynamics of the wage and price curve model of equilibrium unemployment

Author

Listed:
Abstract
A standard model of equilibrium unemployment consists of static equations for real wage ambitions (wage curve) and real wage scope (price curve), which jointly determine the NAIRU. The heuristics of the model states that unless the rate of unemployment approaches the NAIRU from any given initial value, inflation will be increasing or decreasing over time. We formalize this influential heuristic argument with the aid of a dynamic model of the wage-price spiral where the static theory's equations are re-interpretated as attractor relationships. We show that NAIRU unemployment dynamics are sufficient but not necessary for inflation stabilization, and that the dynamic wage-price spiral model generally has a dynamically stable solution for any pre-determined rate of unemployment. We also discuss a restricted version of the model that conforms to the accelerationist view that inflation increases/falls if unemployment is not at its 'natural rate'.

Suggested Citation

  • Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2012. "Modelling the heuristic dynamics of the wage and price curve model of equilibrium unemployment," Discussion Papers 671, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:671
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ssb.no/a/publikasjoner/pdf/DP/dp671.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David G. Blanchflower & Andrew J. Oswald, 1995. "The Wage Curve," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 026202375x, April.
    2. Robert J. Gordon, 1997. "The Time-Varying NAIRU and Its Implications for Economic Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 11-32, Winter.
    3. Forslund, Anders & Gottfries, Nils & Westermark, Andreas, 2005. "Real and nominal wage adjustment in open economies," Working Paper Series 2005:23, IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy.
    4. Carlin, Wendy & Soskice, David, 1990. "Macroeconomics and the Wage Bargain: A Modern Approach to Employment, Inflation, and the Exchange Rate," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198772446.
    5. Stephen Nickell & Luca Nunziata & Wolfgang Ochel, 2005. "Unemployment in the OECD Since the 1960s. What Do We Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(500), pages 1-27, January.
    6. Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-336, May.
    7. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    8. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-Price Spiral," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 41-68, June.
    9. Nickell, S J & Andrews, M, 1983. "Unions, Real Wages and Employment in Britain 1951-79," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(0), pages 183-206, Supplemen.
    10. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 1998. "Unemployment and the open economy wage-price spiral," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(6), pages 450-467, October.
    11. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, April.
    12. Wright, Stephen, 1992. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 60(0), pages 63-84, Supplemen.
    13. Nymoen, Ragnar & Rodseth, Asbjorn, 2003. "Explaining unemployment: some lessons from Nordic wage formation," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 1-29, February.
    14. Blanchflower, David G & Oswald, Andrew J, 1994. "Estimating a Wage Curve for Britain: 1973-90," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 104(426), pages 1025-1043, September.
    15. Assar Lindbeck, 1993. "Unemployment and Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262121751, April.
    16. Gunnar Bårdsen & Ragnar Nymoen, 2003. "Testing Steady-State Implications for the NAIRU," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1070-1075, November.
    17. Hoel, Michael & Nymoen, Ragnar, 1988. "Wage formation in norwegian manufacturing: An empirical application of a theoretical bargaining model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 977-997, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    2. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-Price Spiral," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 41-68, June.
    3. Bårdsen, Gunnar & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2006. "U.S. natural rate dynamics reconsidered," Memorandum 13/2006, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    4. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë Mchugh, 2007. "Modelling Wages and Prices in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(261), pages 143-158, June.
    5. Marit Gjelsvik & Ragnar Nymoen & Victoria Sparrman, 2020. "Cointegration and Structure in Norwegian Wage–Price Dynamics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    6. Bårdsen, Gunnar & den Reijer, Ard & Jonasson, Patrik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2012. "MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2566-2582.
    7. Kees Folmer, 2009. "Why do macro wage elasticities diverge?," CPB Memorandum 224, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    8. Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Between Institutions and Global Forces: Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-54, January.
    9. Dosi, G. & Pereira, M.C. & Roventini, A. & Virgillito, M.E., 2017. "When more flexibility yields more fragility: The microfoundations of Keynesian aggregate unemployment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 162-186.
    10. Marit Linnea Gjelsvik & Victoria Sparrman & Ragnar Nymoen, 2015. "Have inflation targeting and EU labour immigration changed the system of wage formation in Norway?," Discussion Papers 824, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
    11. Marc van der Steeg & Roel van Elk & Dinand Webbink, 2012. "Does intensive coaching reduce school dropout?," CPB Discussion Paper 224.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Gunnar Bårdsen & Jurgen Doornik & Jan Tore Klovland, 2000. "A Wage Curve for the Interwar Labour Market: Evidence from a Panel of Norwegian Manufacturing Industries," Working Paper Series 1802, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 15 Apr 2001.
    13. Kees Folmer, 2009. "Why do macro wage elasticities diverge?," CPB Memorandum 224.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    14. Kees Folmer, 2009. "Why do macro wage elasticities diverge? A meta analysis," CPB Discussion Paper 122, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    15. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Aurélien Gaimon & Vincent Lapegue & Paola Veroni & Noé N'Semi & Frédéric Reynés & Maël Theulière, 2007. "Does the interaction between shocks and institutions solve the OECD unemployment puzzle ? A theoretical and empirical appraisal," Working Papers hal-03602950, HAL.
    18. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/9d007rc2q9huruni0kde2vr73 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6120 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Heyer, Eric & Reynes, Frederic & Sterdyniak, Henri, 2007. "Structural and reduced approaches of the equilibrium rate of unemployment, a comparison between France and the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 42-65, January.
    22. Thórarinn G. Pétursson, 2002. "Wage and price formation in a small open Economy: Evidence from Iceland," Economics wp16_thorarinn, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    23. Graafland, J.J., 1991. "From Phillips curve to wage curve," MPRA Paper 21077, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Binotti, Annetta Maria & Ghiani, Enrico, 2008. "Changes in aggregate supply conditions in Italy: A small econometric model and its policy implications," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1017-1039.
    25. Roger Bjørnstad & Terje Skjerpen, 2003. "Technology, Trade and Inequality," Discussion Papers 364, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    AS-AD; equilibrium-correction; imperfect competition; macroeconomics; NAIRU; Phillips curve; unemployment; wage-price spiral.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ssb:dispap:671. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: L Maasø (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ssbgvno.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.