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Is there a too-big-to-fail discount in excess returns on German banks' stocks?

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  • Dr. Thomas Nitschka
Abstract
This paper shows that standard multifactor asset pricing models provide an adequate description of excess returns on stock indexes of German industrial sectors. The only exception is the banking sector index. It offers lower monthly excess returns than suggested by exposures to risk factors in the sample period from 1973 to 2014. This evidence is robust to various changes in the specification of the empirical model. Rolling time window regressions highlight that this finding has been most pronounced since the peak of the global financial crisis in 2008/2009 when the government guarantee for big, systemically important German banks became explicit.

Suggested Citation

  • Dr. Thomas Nitschka, 2015. "Is there a too-big-to-fail discount in excess returns on German banks' stocks?," Working Papers 2015-08, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2015-08
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    File URL: https://www.snb.ch/en/publications/research/working-papers/2015/working_paper_2015_08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking sector; multifactor models; risk factors; risk premia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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