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Combining Qualitative Forecasts Using Logit

Author

Listed:
  • Kamastra, M
  • Kennedy, P
Abstract
This paper introduces a computationally-convenient means of combining qualitative forecasts, through use of logit regression, applicable in dichotomous, polychotomous and ordered poluchotomous contexts.

Suggested Citation

  • Kamastra, M & Kennedy, P, 1996. "Combining Qualitative Forecasts Using Logit," Discussion Papers dp96-08, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    • Handle: RePEc:sfu:sfudps:dp96-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-389, June.
    2. Heejoon Kang, 1986. "Unstable Weights in the Combination of Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 32(6), pages 683-695, June.
    3. Winkler, Robert L., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A philosophical basis and some current issues," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 605-609.
    4. Peter M. Feather & Michael S. Kaylen, 1989. "Conditional Qualitative Forecasting," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(1), pages 195-201.
    5. Dewispelare, Aaron R. & Herren, L. Tandy & Clemen, Robert T., 1995. "The use of probability elicitation in the high-level nuclear waste regulation program," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 5-24, March.
    6. Clemen, Robert T., 1989. "Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 559-583.
    7. Robert C. Blattberg & Stephen J. Hoch, 1990. "Database Models and Managerial Intuition: 50% Model + 50% Manager," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(8), pages 887-899, August.
    8. David C. Schmittlein & Jinho Kim & Donald G. Morrison, 1990. "Combining Forecasts: Operational Adjustments to Theoretically Optimal Rules," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 36(9), pages 1044-1056, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
    2. Rodrigues, Bruno Dore & Stevenson, Maxwell J., 2013. "Takeover prediction using forecast combinations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 628-641.
    3. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting the oil–gasoline price relationship: Do asymmetries help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 44-56.
    4. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Matousek, Roman & Stewart, Chris, 2012. "Ratings assignments: Lessons from international banks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1593-1606.
    5. Basnet, Anup & Davis, Frederick & Walker, Thomas & Zhao, Kun, 2021. "The effect of securities class action lawsuits on mergers and acquisitions," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    6. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2006. "25 years of time series forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 443-473.
    7. Lahiri Kajal & Yang Liu, 2016. "A non-linear forecast combination procedure for binary outcomes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 421-440, September.
    8. Lewis Gaul & Jonathan Jones & Pinar Uysal, 2019. "Forecasting High-Risk Composite CAMELS Ratings," International Finance Discussion Papers 1252, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou, 2004. "Elements in the Design of an Early Warning System for Sovereign Default," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 231, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223, April.
    11. Salvador, Carlos & Pastor, Jose Manuel & Fernández de Guevara, Juan, 2014. "Impact of the subprime crisis on bank ratings: The effect of the hardening of rating policies and worsening of solvency," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 13-31.
    12. Jan G. de Gooijer & Rob J. Hyndman, 2005. "25 Years of IIF Time Series Forecasting: A Selective Review," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-068/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    13. Pauwels, Laurent & Vasnev, Andrey, 2014. "Forecast combination for U.S. recessions with real-time data," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 138-148.
    14. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Kalotychou, Elena, 2007. "Optimal design of early warning systems for sovereign debt crises," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 85-100.
    15. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
    16. Giovanni De Luca & Alfonso Carfora, 2014. "Predicting U.S. recessions through a combination of probability forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 127-144, February.
    17. Xiao, Liye & Wang, Jianzhou & Hou, Ru & Wu, Jie, 2015. "A combined model based on data pre-analysis and weight coefficients optimization for electrical load forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 524-549.
    18. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2023. "Predicting binary outcomes based on the pair-copula construction," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 3089-3119, June.
    19. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2015. "Model Averaging In Economics: An Overview," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(1), pages 46-75, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FORECASTS;

    JEL classification:

    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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