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Does foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?

Author

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  • Marcin Kolasa
  • Michal Rubaszek
Abstract
This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of several small open economy DSGE models relative to a closed economy benchmark using a long span of data for Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom. We find that opening the economy does not improve, and even deteriorates the quality of point and density forecasts for key domestic variables. We show that this result can be to a large extent attributed to an increase in forecast error due to a more sophisticated structure of the extended setup. This claim is based on a Monte Carlo experiment, in which an open economy model fails to consistently beat its closed economy benchmark even if it is the true data generating process.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcin Kolasa & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Does foreign sector help forecast domestic variables in DSGE models?," KAE Working Papers 2016-022, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:kaewps:2016022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Rubaszek, Michał, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil prices with DSGE models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 531-546.
    2. Gelfer, Sacha, 2021. "Evaluating the forecasting power of an open-economy DSGE model when estimated in a data-Rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Rachatar Nilavongse & Michał Rubaszek & Karsten Staehr & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2021. "Foreign and Domestic Uncertainty Shocks in Four Open Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(5), pages 933-954, November.
    4. Ca’ Zorzi, Michele & Kolasa, Marcin & Rubaszek, Michał, 2017. "Exchange rate forecasting with DSGE models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 127-146.
    5. Martin Feldkircher & Nico Hauzenberger, 2019. "How useful are time-varying parameter models for forecasting economic growth in CESEE?," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q1/19, pages 29-48.
    6. Sergii Kiiashko, 2018. "Applications for DSGE Models in Central Banking: Key Issues Explored During Research Workshop of the National Bank of Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 246, pages 4-9.
    7. Van Nguyen, Phuong, 2020. "The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model," Dynare Working Papers 56, CEPREMAP.
    8. Van Nguyen, Phuong, 2020. "Evaluating the forecasting accuracy of the closed- and open economy New Keynesian DSGE models," Dynare Working Papers 59, CEPREMAP.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; DSGE models; New Open Economy Macroeconomics; Bayesian estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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