[Теоретические Аспекты Моделирования Svar]"> [Теоретические Аспекты Моделирования Svar]"> [Теоретические Аспекты ">
[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rnp/ppaper/mak8.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Theoretical Aspects of Modeling of the SVAR
[Теоретические Аспекты Моделирования Svar]

Author

Listed:
  • Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Turuntseva, Marina (Турунцева, Марина)

    (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

Abstract
In this paper an overview of methods for the analysis of structural VAR models is provided. The fundamental properties of SVAR models, the estimated parameters, as well as various methods of identifying shocks and pritsnipe construct confidence intervals for impulse responses, are discussed. The paper also discusses the problems associated with non-stationary variables.

Suggested Citation

  • Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Turuntseva, Marina (Турунцева, Марина), 2015. "Theoretical Aspects of Modeling of the SVAR [Теоретические Аспекты Моделирования Svar]," Published Papers mak8, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ppaper:mak8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec.ranepa.ru/rnp/ppaper/mak8.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-442, October.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    3. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    4. Gonzalo, Jesus & Ng, Serena, 2001. "A systematic framework for analyzing the dynamic effects of permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1527-1546, October.
    5. Weide, R. van der, 2002. "Generalized Orthogonal GARCH. A Multivariate GARCH model," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-02, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
    6. Renée Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2011. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(4), pages 938-960, December.
    7. Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 2010. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory of Identification and Algorithms for Inference," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 665-696.
    8. Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Roberto Rigobon, 2011. "Stocks, bonds, money markets and exchange rates: measuring international financial transmission," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 948-974, September.
    9. Jörg Breitung, 2001. "A convenient representation for structural vector autoregressions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 26(2), pages 447-459.
    10. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Issues In Using Vars For Macroeconometric Research," CAMA Working Papers 2005-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Ron P. Smith, 1998. "Structural Analysis of Cointegrating VARs," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(5), pages 471-505, December.
    12. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1999. "Error Bands for Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(5), pages 1113-1156, September.
    13. Pagan, A.R. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2008. "Econometric analysis of structural systems with permanent and transitory shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3376-3395, October.
    14. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    15. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
    16. Normandin, Michel & Phaneuf, Louis, 2004. "Monetary policy shocks:: Testing identification conditions under time-varying conditional volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(6), pages 1217-1243, September.
    17. Yang, Minxian, 1998. "On identifying permanent and transitory shocks in VAR models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 171-175, February.
    18. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    19. Lanne, Markku & Lütkepohl, Helmut & Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2010. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 121-131, February.
    20. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
    21. Lance A. Fisher & Hyeon-seung Huh, 2014. "Identification Methods In Vector-Error Correction Models: Equivalence Results," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 1-16, February.
    22. Jon Faust, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," International Finance Discussion Papers 610, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Canova, Fabio & Nicolo, Gianni De, 2002. "Monetary disturbances matter for business fluctuations in the G-7," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1131-1159, September.
    24. Arai, Yoichi & Yamamoto, Taku, 2000. "Alternative representation for asymptotic distributions of impulse responses in cointegrated VAR systems," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 261-271, June.
    25. Bouakez, Hafedh & Normandin, Michel, 2010. "Fluctuations in the foreign exchange market: How important are monetary policy shocks?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 139-153, May.
    26. Claudia Foroni & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2014. "Mixed frequency structural VARs," Working Paper 2014/01, Norges Bank.
    27. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    28. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454-454, October.
    29. Faust, Jon, 1998. "The robustness of identified VAR conclusions about money," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 207-244, December.
    30. I. D. Vrontos & P. Dellaportas & D. N. Politis, 2003. "A full-factor multivariate GARCH model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(2), pages 312-334, December.
    31. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    32. Sentana, Enrique & Fiorentini, Gabriele, 2001. "Identification, estimation and testing of conditionally heteroskedastic factor models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 143-164, June.
    33. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    34. Lee, Kevin C. & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 1993. "Persistence profiles and business cycle fluctuations in a disaggregated model of U.K. output growth," Ricerche Economiche, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 293-322, September.
    35. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-Seung & Summers, Peter M., 2000. "Structural Identification of Permanent Shocks in VEC Models: A Generalization," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 53-68, January.
    36. Kilian, Lutz & Chang, Pao-Li, 2000. "How accurate are confidence intervals for impulse responses in large VAR models?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 299-307, December.
    37. Vlaar, Peter J.G., 2004. "On The Asymptotic Distribution Of Impulse Response Functions With Long-Run Restrictions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 891-903, October.
    38. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
    39. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
    40. Zacharias Psaradakis & Nicola Spagnolo, 2006. "Joint Determination of the State Dimension and Autoregressive Order for Models with Markov Regime Switching," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(5), pages 753-766, September.
    41. Lucke, Bernd, 2010. "Identification and overidentification in SVECMs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 318-321, September.
    42. Michael Wolf & Dan Wunderli, 2012. "Bootstrap joint prediction regions," ECON - Working Papers 064, Department of Economics - University of Zurich, revised May 2013.
    43. Kilian, Lutz, 2001. "Impulse Response Analysis in Vector Autoregressions with Unknown Lag Order," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(3), pages 161-179, April.
    44. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 2007. "Permanent-Transitory Decompositions Under Weak Exogeneity," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 183-189, February.
    45. Fisher, Lance A. & Huh, Hyeon-seung, 1999. "Weak exogeneity and long-run and contemporaneous identifying restrictions in VEC models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 159-165, May.
    46. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2007. "Some Issues in Using Sign Restrictions for Identifying Structural VARs," NCER Working Paper Series 14, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Andrei Shevelev & Maria Kvaktun & Kristina Virovets, 2021. "Effect of Monetary Policy on Investment in Russian Regions," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(4), pages 31-49, December.
    2. И Управления Мир Экономики, 2017. "Байесовский подход к анализу влияния монетарной политики на макроэкономические показатели России. Bayesian approach to the analysis of monetary policy impact on Russian macroeconomics indicators," Мир экономики и управления // Вестник НГУ. Cерия: Cоциально-экономические науки, Socionet;Новосибирский государственный университет, vol. 17(4), pages 53-70.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2014-009 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Helmut Lütkepohl & Anton Velinov, 2016. "Structural Vector Autoregressions: Checking Identifying Long-Run Restrictions Via Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 377-392, April.
    3. Herwartz, Helmut & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching: Combining conventional with statistical identification of shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 104-116.
    4. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 2016. "Dynamic Factor Models, Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressions, and Structural Vector Autoregressions in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 415-525, Elsevier.
    5. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2017. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A review of different volatility models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 1(C), pages 2-18.
    6. Lütkepohl, Helmut & Netšunajev, Aleksei, 2015. "Structural vector autoregressions with heteroskedasticity: A comparison of different volatility models," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2015-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2015-015 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dominik Bertsche & Robin Braun, 2022. "Identification of Structural Vector Autoregressions by Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 328-341, January.
    9. Dobromił Serwa & Piotr Wdowiński, 2017. "Modeling Macro-Financial Linkages: Combined Impulse Response Functions in SVAR Models," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 9(4), pages 323-357, December.
    10. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Identifying Structural Vector Autoregressions via Changes in Volatility," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1259, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Efrem Castelnuovo & Luca Fanelli, 2014. "Gimme a break! Identification and estimation of the macroeconomic effects of monetary policy shocks in the U.S," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0181, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    12. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI & Luca FANELLI, 2012. "Identification in structural vector autoregressive models with structural changes," Departmental Working Papers 2012-16, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    13. Herwartz, Helmut & Lange, Alexander & Maxand, Simone, 2019. "Statistical identification in SVARs - Monte Carlo experiments and a comparative assessment of the role of economic uncertainties for the US business cycle," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 375, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    14. Pao-Lin Tien, 2009. "Using Long-Run Restrictions to Investigate the Sources of Exchange Rate Fluctuations," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2009-004, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
    15. Helmut Lütkepohl & Aleksei NetŠunajev, 2014. "Disentangling Demand And Supply Shocks In The Crude Oil Market: How To Check Sign Restrictions In Structural Vars," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 479-496, April.
    16. Helmut Herwartz & Alexander Lange & Simone Maxand, 2022. "Data‐driven identification in SVARs—When and how can statistical characteristics be used to unravel causal relationships?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(2), pages 668-693, April.
    17. Dees, Stéphane, 2016. "Credit, asset prices and business cycles at the global level," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 139-152.
    18. Galadima, Mukhtar Danladi & Aminu, Abubakar Wambai, 2019. "Shocks effects of macroeconomic variables on natural gas consumption in Nigeria: Structural VAR with sign restrictions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 135-144.
    19. Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-387, October.
    20. Marek Rusnak & Tomas Havranek & Roman Horvath, 2013. "How to Solve the Price Puzzle? A Meta-Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(1), pages 37-70, February.
    21. Andrew Binning, 2013. "Underidentified SVAR models: A framework for combining short and long-run restrictions with sign-restrictions," Working Paper 2013/14, Norges Bank.
    22. Fratzscher, Marcel & Juvenal, Luciana & Sarno, Lucio, 2010. "Asset prices, exchange rates and the current account," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 643-658, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    structural VAR models (SVAR); structural VECM (SVECM); impulse responses; decomposition of the forecast error variances; the identification of shocks;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rnp:ppaper:mak8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: RANEPA maintainer (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aneeeru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.