[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/eabrwp/2017_003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Edb Countries: Economic Outlook Improves

Author

Listed:
Abstract
The recovery in global commodity prices as well as the weakening currency imbalances had a positive effect on EDB countries' foreign trade flows. Whereas 1Q 2016 saw falling exports of goods and services in all EDB countries except Armenia, positive growth in exports was demonstrated by all EDB countries this year. Remittances coming off the back of revived economic activity in Russia contributed to improving the current account in Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. In Kazakhstan, the rising current account deficit was due to growing dividend payments to direct foreign investors. The recovery in economic activity, accompanied by weakening inflation risks, had a positive impact on the living standards of the population in the region. In 1Q 2017, unlike in the same period last year, real wages started to demonstrate a positive trend in all EDB countries except Kazakhstan, although the rate of decline slowed in that country. The accelerated economic activity in EDB countries in the first half of 2017 led us to revise our GDP outlook for the full year. We raised our Russian GDP forecast by 0.3 pp to 1.4%, which, in its turn, has driven a higher 2017 GDP forecast for Belarus, up 0.1 pp to 1.4%. There were more considerable changes with respect to Kazakhstan and Armenia. The deferred effect of stimulatory fiscal and monetary policy in 2016 amid a quick recovery in remittances was reflected in consumer demand trends in Armenia in 1H 2017. In these circumstances, we raised Armenia's full-year GDP outlook from 2.9% to 5.2%. In this regard, amid the recovery in trade and economic growth rates, Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries are taking further steps aimed at improving economic integration. In particular, in the transport and logistics sphere, quarantinable products will be transported within the territory of the EAEU under standardized rules from 1 July 2017. Uniform domestic tariffs have already been established for cargo transportation by rail for the EAEU. In addition, an important step on the way to further integration was the approval by the presidents of the EAEU countries of a key strategic document - Main Directions and Stages of the Coordinated (Agreed) Transport Policy - in December 2016. Also worth mentioning is further progress in developing the EAEU through building economic alliances - a joint statement was signed in June between the EAEU and the Republic of India on beginning negotiations on a Free Trade Area agreement.

Suggested Citation

  • Lissovolik, Yaroslav & Kuznetsov, Aleksei & Berdigulova, Aigul, 2017. "Edb Countries: Economic Outlook Improves," Working Papers 2017-3, Eurasian Development Bank, Chief Economist Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2017_003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://eabr.org/upload/iblock/238/MACROREVIEW_EN.PDF
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. H. Hanson, Gordon, 2005. "Market potential, increasing returns and geographic concentration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2006. "Regional wage and employment responses to market potential in the EU," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 573-594, September.
    3. Hervé Boulhol & Alain de Serres, 2010. "Have developed countries escaped the curse of distance?," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(1), pages 113-139, January.
    4. Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2006. "Notes on CEPII’s distances measures," MPRA Paper 26469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Thierry Mayer, 2008. "Market Potential and Development," Working Papers hal-01066164, HAL.
    6. Hervé Boulhol & Alain de Serres & Margit Molnár, 2008. "The contribution of economic geography to GDP per capita," OECD Journal: Economic Studies, OECD Publishing, vol. 2008(1), pages 1-37.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Burhan Can Karahasan & Firat Bilgel, 2018. "Economic Geography, Growth Dynamics and Human Capital Accumulation in Turkey: Evidence from Regional and Micro Data," Working Papers 1233, Economic Research Forum, revised 10 Oct 2018.
    2. Stephen J. Redding, 2010. "The Empirics Of New Economic Geography," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 297-311, February.
    3. Burhan Can Karahasan, 2014. "The Spatial Distribution Of New Firms:Can Peripheral Areas Escape From The Curse Of Remoteness?," Romanian Journal of Regional Science, Romanian Regional Science Association, vol. 8(2), pages 1-28, DECEMBER.
    4. Burhan Can Karahasan & Fatma Dogruel & Ali Suut Dogruel, 2016. "Can Market Potential Explain Regional Disparities in Developing Countries? Evidence from Turkey," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 54(2), pages 162-197, June.
    5. Maarten Bosker & Harry Garretsen, 2010. "Trade costs in empirical New Economic Geography," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 89(3), pages 485-511, August.
    6. Burhan Can Karahasan & Fırat Bilgel, 2020. "Market access and regional dispersion of human capital accumulation in Turkey," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 1073-1101, August.
    7. repec:hal:journl:dumas-00802143 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Stephen J. Redding, 2013. "Economic Geography: A Review of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Daniel Bernhofen & Rod Falvey & David Greenaway & Udo Kreickemeier (ed.), Palgrave Handbook of International Trade, chapter 16, pages 497-531, Palgrave Macmillan.
    9. Andrzej Cieślik & Bartłomiej Rokicki, 2016. "European Integration and Spatial Wage Structure in Poland," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 107(4), pages 435-453, September.
    10. Gabrielle Gambuli, 2023. "Navigating the Geography of Regional Disparities: Market Access and the Core-Periphery Divide," THEMA Working Papers 2023-05, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    11. Fernando Bruna, 2015. "Why do empirical tests tend to accept the NEG? An alternative approach to the 'wage equation' in European regions," Working Papers 15-11, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    12. John Francis & Yuqing Zheng, 2012. "Trade, Geography, and Industry Growth in U.S. Manufacturing," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(4), pages 1222-1241, April.
    13. Andrzej Cieślik & Bartłomiej Rokicki, 2016. "Individual wages and regional market potential," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(4), pages 661-682, October.
    14. Han, Feng & Ke, Shanzi, 2016. "The effects of factor proximity and market potential on urban manufacturing output," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 31-45.
    15. Reinhold Kosfeld & Hans-Friedrich Eckey, 2010. "Market access, regional price level and wage disparities: the German case," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 30(2), pages 105-128, September.
    16. Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Pinelli, Dino, 2006. "Market potential and productivity: Evidence from Finnish regions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 636-657, September.
    17. Hering, Laura & Poncet, Sandra, 2009. "The impact of economic geography on wages: Disentangling the channels of influence," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-14, March.
    18. Treb Allen & Costas Arkolakis, 2014. "Trade and the Topography of the Spatial Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1085-1140.
    19. Huang, Qiong & Chand, Satish, 2015. "Spatial spillovers of regional wages: Evidence from Chinese provinces," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 97-109.
    20. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8mb6c01j is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Anderson, James E. & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "Short run gravity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    22. Fingleton, Bernard, 2008. "Competing models of global dynamics: Evidence from panel models with spatially correlated error components," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 542-558, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomy; Forecasting; Eurasia; EAEU Countries; Economic Growth; Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:eabrwp:2017_003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Yaroslav Lissovolik (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ceedbru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.