[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/drxlwp/2022_005.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Predictable Forecast Errors in Full-Information Rational Expectations Models with Regime Shifts

Author

Listed:
  • Hajdini, Ina

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • Kurmann, Andre

    (Drexel University)

Abstract
This paper shows that in the presence of Markov regime shifts, Full Information Rational Expectations (FIRE) models lead to predictable, regime-dependent forecast errors. More generally, regime shifts imply that ex-post forecast error regressions display waves of over-and under-reaction to current information over rolling sample windows. Using survey-based forecast data of macroeconomic aggregates, we confirm the existence of such waves. We then estimate a medium-scale DSGE model with regime shifts in the aggressiveness of monetary policy on U.S. data to assess the quantitative importance of the proposed mechanism. Despite the assumption of FIRE, simulated data conditional on the estimated sequence of regime realizations generates ex-post forecast error predictability consistent with reduced-form regressions from the existing literature and large waves of over- and under-reaction across subsamples. Hence, predictabiliy of ex-post forecast errors is neither a sufficient condition to reject FIRE nor by itself a good metric to test alternative theories of expectations formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Hajdini, Ina & Kurmann, Andre, 2022. "Predictable Forecast Errors in Full-Information Rational Expectations Models with Regime Shifts," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2022-5, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2022_005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ZNmtbNXIGhYTc2ajef4PhLZhnO7P_RhH/view?usp=sharing
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alexandre N. Kohlhas & Ansgar Walther, 2021. "Asymmetric Attention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(9), pages 2879-2925, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts," Working Papers 22-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    2. Alexandros Botsis & Christoph Görtz & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2020. "Quantifying Qualitative Survey Data: New Insights on the (Ir)Rationality of Firms' Forecasts," CESifo Working Paper Series 8148, CESifo.
    3. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Rafael Wouters, 2023. "Professional Survey Forecasts and Expectations in DSGE Models," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp766, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J., 2023. "On FIRE, news, and expectations," Working Papers 42, German Research Foundation's Priority Programme 1859 "Experience and Expectation. Historical Foundations of Economic Behaviour", Humboldt University Berlin.
    2. Chen, Heng & Li, Xu & Pei, Guangyu & Xin, Qian, 2024. "Heterogeneous overreaction in expectation formation: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    3. Hajdini, Ina & Knotek, Edward S. & Leer, John & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Rich, Robert & Schoenle, Raphael, 2024. "Indirect consumer inflation expectations: Theory and evidence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    4. Jean-Paul L’Huillier & Sanjay R Singh & Donghoon Yoo, 2024. "Incorporating Diagnostic Expectations into the New Keynesian Framework," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(5), pages 3013-3046.
    5. Born, Benjamin & Enders, Zeno & Menkhoff, Manuel & Müller, Gernot & Niemann, Knut, 2022. "Firm Expectations and News: Micro v Macro," CEPR Discussion Papers 17768, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2022_005 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Adams, Jonathan J., 2023. "Moderating noise-driven macroeconomic fluctuations under dispersed information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    8. Han, Zhao, 2024. "Asymmetric information and misaligned inflation expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Granziera, Eleonora & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Paloviita, Maritta, 2021. "The bias and efficiency of the ECB inflation projections: a State dependent analysis," Research Discussion Papers 7/2021, Bank of Finland.
    10. Abay, Kibrom A. & Barrett, Christopher B. & Kilic, Talip & Moylan, Heather & Ilukor, John & Vundru, Wilbert Drazi, 2023. "Nonclassical measurement error and farmers’ response to information treatment," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    11. Stephen Cole & Enrique Martinez-Garcia & Eric R. Sims, 2023. "Living Up to Expectations: Central Bank Credibility, the Effectiveness of Forward Guidance, and Inflation Dynamics Post-Global Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 31777, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Gemmi, Luca, 2024. "Rational overoptimism and limited liability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    13. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2021_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Yuliya Rychalovska & Sergey Slobodyan & Raf Wouters, 2024. "Survey Expectations, Adaptive Learning and Inflation Dynamics," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp781, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    15. Meggiorini, Greta, 2023. "Behavioral New Keynesian Models: An empirical assessment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    16. Eleonora Granziera & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Maritta Paloviita, 2021. "The Bias and Efficiency of the ECB Inflation Projections: a State Dependent Analysis," Working Paper 2021/1, Norges Bank.
    17. Shintani, Mototsugu & Ueda, Kozo, 2023. "Identifying the source of information rigidities in the expectations formation process," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    18. Ambrocio, Gene, 2020. "Inflationary household uncertainty shocks," Research Discussion Papers 5/2020, Bank of Finland.
    19. Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023. "Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters," ZEW Discussion Papers 23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    20. Roberto Gómez‐Cram, 2022. "Late to Recessions: Stocks and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 923-966, April.
    21. Huo, Zhen & Pedroni, Marcelo, 2023. "Dynamic information aggregation: Learning from the past," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 107-124.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Full-information Rational Expectations; Markov Regime Shifts; Forecasting Errors; Waves of Over- and Under-Reaction; Survey of Professional Forecasters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2022_005. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Richard C. Barnett (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbdreus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.