[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/adbiwp/0467.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is There Really a Renminbi Bloc in Asia?

Author

Listed:
  • Kawai, Masahiro

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Pontines, Victor

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract
This paper examines whether the renminbi (RMB) has supplanted the US dollar as the major anchor currency in the currency baskets of East Asian economies. It systematically demonstrates that existing techniques to address the problem of severe multicollinearity in estimations of the Frankel¬–Wei regression model, with the movements in both the RMB and the US dollar included on the right-hand side of the equation, remain limited in providing stable and robust results. The paper proposes a simple modification of the Frankel–Wei regression model to estimate the RMB weight in an economy’s currency basket. Using this new approach, findings show there is not yet an RMB bloc in East Asia, contrary to claims made by some recent studies, with the US dollar continuing to be the dominant anchor currency in the region. The RMB has taken on some importance in the currency baskets of many East Asian economies in recent years and this appears to have occurred at the expense of the yen. In short, despite the rising importance of the RMB, it has not eclipsed the US dollar as the dominant anchor currency in East Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Kawai, Masahiro & Pontines, Victor, 2014. "Is There Really a Renminbi Bloc in Asia?," ADBI Working Papers 467, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0467
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.adbi.org/files/2014.02.28.wp467.is.there.really.a.renminbi.bloc.asia.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Chapters, in: Volbert Alexander & Hans-Helmut Kotz (ed.), Global Divergence in Trade, Money and Policy, chapter 3, pages 45-71, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Hwee Kwan Chow, 2011. "Towards an Expanded Role for Asian Currencies : Issues and Prospects," Macroeconomics Working Papers 23251, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Kawai, Masahiro & Akiyama, Shigeru, 1998. "The Role of Nominal Anchor Currencies in Exchange Rate Arrangements," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 334-387, December.
    4. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
    5. Balasubramaniam, Vimal & Patnaik, Ila & Shah, Ajay, 2011. "Who cares about the Chinese Yuan?," Working Papers 11/89, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    6. Benassy-Quere, Agnes & Coeure, Benoit & Mignon, Valerie, 2006. "On the identification of de facto currency pegs," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 112-127, March.
    7. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "China's Dominance Hypothesis and the Emergence of a Tri‐polar Global Currency System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1343-1370, December.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1994. "Yen Bloc or Dollar Bloc? Exchange Rate Policies of the East Asian Economies," NBER Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Linkage: Savings, Exchange Rates, and Capital Flows, pages 295-333, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Subramanian Arvind & Kessler Martin, 2013. "The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?1)," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 49-94, August.
    10. C. Randall Henning, 2012. "Choice and Coercion in East Asian Exchange Rate Regimes," Working Paper Series WP12-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    11. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2004. "The East Asian dollar standard," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 325-330.
    12. Corrinne Ho & Guonan Ma & Robert N McCauley, 2005. "Trading Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ulrich Volz, 2015. "On the Future of Inflation Targeting in East Asia," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 638-652, August.
    2. Hyoung-kyu Chey & Geun-Young Kim & Dong Hyun Lee, 2016. "Who Are the First Users of a Newly-Emerging International Currency? A Demand-Side Study of Chinese Renminbi Internationalization," Working Papers 2016-19, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    3. Robert N McCauley & Tracy Chan, 2014. "Currency movements drive reserve composition," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
    4. Daniela Marconi, "undated". "Currency Co-Movements In Asia-Pacific: The Regional Role Of The Renminbi," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2016_023, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    5. Wing-Choong Lai & Kim-Leng Goh, 2019. "Impact of Chinese Yuan Devaluation on the Dependence Structure: The Archimedean Copula Approach," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(01), pages 1-27, March.
    6. Hyoung-kyu Chey, 2014. "A Demand-Side Analysis of Renminbi Internationalisation: The Renminbi in South Korea," GRIPS Discussion Papers 14-02, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    7. Yiping Huang & Daili Wang & Gang Fan, 2014. "Paths to a Reserve Currency : Internationalization of the Renminbi and Its Implications," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24165, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    8. Masahiro Kawai & Victor Pontines, 2014. "The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24218, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    9. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    10. Shekhar Hari Kumar & Vimal Balasubramaniam & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2020. "Who cares about the Renminbi?," 2020 Papers pha1373, Job Market Papers.
    11. Hyoung-kyu Chey, 2015. "Renminbi in Ordinary Economies: A Demand-side Study of Currency Globalization," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 23(3), pages 1-21, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Masahiro Kawai & Victor Pontines, 2014. "The Renminbi and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia," Finance Working Papers 24218, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    2. Kawai, Masahiro & Pontines, Victor, 2016. "Is there really a renminbi bloc in Asia?: A modified Frankel–Wei approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 72-97.
    3. Chang Sik Kim & Sunghyun Kim & Yunjong Wang, 2018. "RMB Bloc in East Asia: Too Early to Talk About It?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(3), pages 31-48, Fall.
    4. Keddad, Benjamin & Sato, Kiyotaka, 2022. "The influence of the renminbi and its macroeconomic determinants: A new Chinese monetary order in Asia?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Ulrich Volz, 2014. "RMB Internationalisation and Currency Cooperation in East Asia," Financial and Monetary Policy Studies, in: Frank Rövekamp & Hanns Günther Hilpert (ed.), Currency Cooperation in East Asia, edition 127, pages 57-81, Springer.
    6. He, Qing & Liu, Junyi & Yu, Jishuang, 2023. "Dancing with dragon: The RMB and developing economies’ currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Keddad, Benjamin, 2019. "How do the Renminbi and other East Asian currencies co-move?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-70.
    8. Click, Reid W., 2009. "The ASEAN dollar standard in the post-crisis era: A reconsideration," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 269-279, May.
    9. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Cheng, Xiaoqiang, 2015. "One currency, two markets: the renminbi's growing influence in Asia-Pacific," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 163-178.
    10. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    11. Eiji Ogawa, 2011. "Currency Baskets for East Asia," Chapters, in: Ulrich Volz (ed.), Regional Integration, Economic Development and Global Governance, chapter 14, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Robert N McCauley & Chang Shu, 2018. "Recent RMB policy and currency co-movements," BIS Working Papers 727, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Subramanian Arvind & Kessler Martin, 2013. "The Renminbi Bloc is Here: Asia Down, Rest of the World to Go?1)," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 49-94, August.
    14. Ito, Hiro & McCauley, Robert N., 2019. "A key currency view of global imbalances," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 97-115.
    15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & You, Kefei, 2018. "Exchange rate linkages between the ASEAN currencies, the US dollar and the Chinese RMB," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 227-238.
    16. Ulrich Volz (ed.), 2011. "Regional Integration, Economic Development and Global Governance," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14259.
    17. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 25, pages 1439-1520, Elsevier.
    18. Liu, Tao & Wang, Xiaosong & Woo, Wing Thye, 2022. "The rise of Renminbi in Asia: Evidence from Network Analysis and SWIFT dataset," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Masahiro Kawai, 2014. "Asian Monetary Integration : A Japanese Perspective," Macroeconomics Working Papers 24158, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    20. Marcel Fratzscher & Arnaud Mehl, 2014. "China's Dominance Hypothesis and the Emergence of a Tri‐polar Global Currency System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(581), pages 1343-1370, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    RMB; renminbi bloc; Frankel–Wei regression model; anchor currency; East Asia; currency baskets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0467. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ADB Institute (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/adbinjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.