[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rif/dpaper/1156.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Offshoring, Relocation and the Speed of Convergence in the Enlarged European Union

Author

Listed:
  • Alho, Kari E.O.
  • Kaitila, Ville
  • Widgrén, Mika
Abstract
Economic convergence of the new member states (NMS) of the EU towards the old EU countries (EU-15), not only in terms of real income, but also in nominal terms, is of paramount importance for the whole of the EU. We build a dynamic CGE model, starting from the Balassa-Samuelson two-sector framework, but modify and enlarge it with forward-looking investment, consumption, and labour mobility behaviour to address several other issues like welfare and sustainability in terms of foreign indebtedness. At the same time we evaluate the impact of convergence on the EU-15 countries also, by endogenising offshoring and the related FDI flows from them to the NMS. Thereby we identify various effects of relocation and globalisation on the EU-15 enlarging the standard set of effects of globalisation and demonstrate the key role of their dynamic nature in the process of convergence. We find that in a general equilibrium setting fears of large adverse effects of a relocation of EU-15 manufacturing to the NMS are not well founded. In contrast, offshoring appears to be a win-win case for both the EU-15 and the NMS in terms of real income. The convergence of the NMS is fairly rapid, but will involve a persistent rapid inflation rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Alho, Kari E.O. & Kaitila, Ville & Widgrén, Mika, 2008. "Offshoring, Relocation and the Speed of Convergence in the Enlarged European Union," Discussion Papers 1156, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:rif:dpaper:1156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.etla.fi/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/dp1156.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chang, Roberto & Kaltani, Linda & Loayza, Norman V., 2009. "Openness can be good for growth: The role of policy complementarities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49, September.
    2. Jonathan E. Haskel & Sonia C. Pereira & Matthew J. Slaughter, 2007. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Boost the Productivity of Domestic Firms?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(3), pages 482-496, August.
    3. Henrekson, Magnus & Torstensson, Johan & Torstensson, Rasha, 1997. "Growth effects of European integration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1537-1557, August.
    4. Ben-David, Dan, 1996. "Trade and convergence among countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-4), pages 279-298, May.
    5. Alvarez, Luis H.R. & Stenbacka, Rune, 2007. "Partial outsourcing: A real options perspective," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 91-102, February.
    6. Dan Ben-David & Ayal Kimhi, 2001. "Trade and the rate of income convergence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 419-441.
    7. Boldrin, Michele & Canova, Fabio, 2003. "Regional Policies and EU Enlargement," CEPR Discussion Papers 3744, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Vaittinen, Risto, 2004. "Trade Policies and Integration - Evaluations with CGE Models," Research Reports 109, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    9. ?gel de la Fuente, "undated". "Convergence Across Countries And Regions: Theory And Empirics," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 447.00, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    10. Cécile Denis & Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2006. "Globalisation : trends, issues and macro implications for the EU," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 254, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2006. "The rise of offshoring: it's not wine for cloth anymore," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 59-102.
    12. Kaitila, Ville, 2004. "Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area," Discussion Papers 935, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    13. Baldwin, Richard & Seghezza, Elena, 1996. "Growth and European Integration: Towards an Empirical Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 1393, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Kaitila, Ville, 2003. "Convergence of Real GDP per Capita in the EU15 area: How do the Accession Countries Fit in ?," Discussion Papers 865, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    15. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    16. Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2002. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: How Much Is It Worth for Austria?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(2), pages 324-342, May.
    17. Barro, Robert J & Mankiw, N Gregory & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1995. "Capital Mobility in Neoclassical Models of Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 103-115, March.
    18. Ben J Heijdra & Christian Keuschnigg & Wilhelm Kohler, 2014. "Eastern Enlargement of the EU: Jobs, Investment and Welfare in Present Member Countries," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: European Economic Integration, WTO Membership, Immigration and Offshoring, chapter 2, pages 37-83, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    19. repec:bla:reviec:v:10:y:2002:i:2:p:324-42 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Baldwin, Richard & Seghezza, Elena, 1996. "Trade-induced Investment-led Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1420, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Jaime De Melo & Arvind Panagariya & Dani Rodrik, 2015. "The New Regionalism: A Country Perspective," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 14, pages 323-357, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    22. Heikki Kauppi & Mika Widgrén, 2004. "What determines EU decision making? Needs, power or both? [‘Implications of the EC expansion for European agricultural policies, trade and welfare’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 19(39), pages 222-266.
    23. van de Klundert, Theo & Smulders, Sjak, 2001. "Loss of technological leadership of rentier economies: a two-country endogenous growth model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 211-231, June.
    24. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
    25. Edwards, Sebastian, 1993. "Openness, Trade Liberalization, and Growth in Developing Countries," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1358-1393, September.
    26. Dubravko Mihaljek & Marc Klau, 2003. "The Balassa-Samuelson effect in central Europe: a disaggregated analysis," BIS Working Papers 143, Bank for International Settlements.
    27. Beata Smarzynska Javorcik, 2004. "Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? In Search of Spillovers Through Backward Linkages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(3), pages 605-627, June.
    28. Ottaviano, Gianmarco I. P., 1999. "Integration, geography and the burden of history," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 245-256, March.
    29. Kari E.O.Alho & Ville Kaitila & Mika Widgrén, 2005. "Speed of Convergence and Relocation - New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old," Economics Working Papers 034, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    30. David Barr & Francis Breedon & David Miles, 2003. "Life on the outside: economic conditions and prospects outside euroland [‘Do domestic firms benefit from foreign direct investment? Evidence from Venezuela’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 573-613.
    31. Jagdish Bhagwati & Arvind Panagariya, 2004. "The Muddles over Outsourcing," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 93-114, Fall.
    32. Kari E.O.Alho, 2005. "A Gravity Model under Monopolistic Competition," Economics Working Papers 033, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    33. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Beugelsdijk, S., 2003. "The Effectiveness of Structural Policy in the European Union : An Empirical Analysis for the EU-15 During the Period 1995-2001," Other publications TiSEM b49148f9-6d69-49ac-93c1-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    34. Pekka Sulamaa & Mika Widgrén, 2004. "EU-Enlargement and Beyond: A Simulation Study on EU and Russia Integration," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 307-323, December.
    35. Dollar, David, 1992. "Outward-Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(3), pages 523-544, April.
    36. Paul A. Samuelson, 2004. "Where Ricardo and Mill Rebut and Confirm Arguments of Mainstream Economists Supporting Globalization," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 135-146, Summer.
    37. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Warner, 1995. "Economic Reform and the Process of Global Integration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 26(1, 25th A), pages 1-118.
    38. Gene M. Grossman & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2008. "Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 1978-1997, December.
    39. Robert E. Hall, 2004. "Measuring Factor Adjustment Costs," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(3), pages 899-927.
    40. Noguer, Marta & Siscart, Marc, 2005. "Trade raises income: a precise and robust result," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 447-460, March.
    41. Richard E. Baldwin & Joseph F. Francois & Richard Portes, 1997. "The costs and benefits of eastern enlargement: the impact on the EU and central Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 12(24), pages 125-176.
    42. Kaitila, Ville & Alho, Kari E. O. & Nikula, Nuutti, 2007. "Growth Prospects of Emerging Market Economies in Europe - How Fast Will They Catch up with the Old West?," Discussion Papers 1115, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kari E.O.Alho & Ville Kaitila & Mika Widgrén, 2005. "Speed of Convergence and Relocation - New EU Member Countries Catching up with the Old," Economics Working Papers 034, European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
    2. Kaitila, Ville, 2004. "Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area," Discussion Papers 935, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    3. Eriṣ, Mehmet N. & Ulaṣan, Bülent, 2013. "Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 867-883.
    4. Chad Stroomer & David E.A. Giles, 2003. "Income Convergence and trade Openness: Fuzzy Clustering and Time Series Evidence," Econometrics Working Papers 0304, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    5. Tarlok Singh, 2010. "Does International Trade Cause Economic Growth? A Survey," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(11), pages 1517-1564, November.
    6. Mina Baliamoune-Lutz, 2002. "Assessing the Impact of One Aspect of Globalization on Economic Growth in Africa," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2002-91, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Arjan Lejour & Vladimir Solanic & Paul Tang, 2009. "EU Accession and Income Growth: An Empirical Approach," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 16(1), pages 127-144, May.
    8. Ben-David, Dan & Loewy, Michael B, 1995. "Free Trade and Long-Run Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 1183, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Antoni Estevadeordal & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Is the Washington Consensus Dead? Growth, Openness, and the Great Liberalization, 1970s–2000s," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1669-1690, December.
    10. Mr. Allan D. Brunner, 2003. "The Long-Run Effects of Tradeon Income and Income Growth," IMF Working Papers 2003/037, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Celal Kucuker, 2003. "Türkiye Ýktisat Kongresi Büyüme Stratejileri Çalýþma Grubu," Working Papers 2003/5, Turkish Economic Association.
    12. Capolupo, Rosa, 2009. "The New Growth Theories and Their Empirics after Twenty Years," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 3, pages 1-72.
    13. Jin, Jang C., 2006. "Openness, growth, and inflation: Evidence from South Korea before the economic crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 738-757, October.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Romer, David & Cyrus, Teresa, 1995. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233408, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    15. Hur, Jung & Park, Cheolbeom, 2012. "Do Free Trade Agreements Increase Economic Growth of the Member Countries?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 1283-1294.
    16. Rosa Capolupo & Giuseppe Celi, 2008. "Openness And Economic Growth: A Comparative Study Of Alternative Trading Regimes," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 5-36.
    17. Xuepeng Liu, 2009. "Trade and income convergence: Sorting out the causality," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 169-195.
    18. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Filippo Gori, 2016. "Can Reforms Promoting Growth Increase Financial Fragility?: An Empirical Assessment," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1340, OECD Publishing.
    19. Dan Ben-David & Ayal Kimhi, 2001. "Trade and the rate of income convergence," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(4), pages 419-441.
    20. Jin, Jang C., 2006. "Can openness be an engine of sustained high growth rates and inflation?: Evidence from Japan and Korea," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 228-240.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    convergence; relocation; new member states; EU-15;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rif:dpaper:1156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kaija Hyvönen-Rajecki (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/etlaafi.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.