[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed018/1207.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Understanding the Scarring Effect of Recessions

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Huckfeldt

    (Cornell University)

Abstract
This paper documents that the earnings cost of job loss is concentrated among workers who find reemployment in lower-paying occupations, and that the incidence of such occupation displacement is higher for workers who lose their job during a recession. I propose a model where hiring is endogenously more selective during recessions, forcing some unemployed workers to search for lower-skill jobs. In accounting for the cost and cyclical incidence of occupation displacement, the model accounts for existing estimates of the present value cost of job loss during expansions and recessions, and the cost of entering the labor market during a recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Huckfeldt, 2018. "Understanding the Scarring Effect of Recessions," 2018 Meeting Papers 1207, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:1207
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2018/paper_1207.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fatih Guvenen & Fatih Karahan & Serdar Ozkan & Jae Song, 2015. "What Do Data on Millions of U.S. Workers Reveal about Life-Cycle Earnings Risk?," NBER Working Papers 20913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    3. Mark Gertler & Christopher Huckfeldt & Antonella Trigari, 2020. "Unemployment Fluctuations, Match Quality, and the Wage Cyclicality of New Hires," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(4), pages 1876-1914.
    4. John Haltiwanger & Henry Hyatt & Erika McEntarfer, 2015. "Cyclical Reallocation of Workers Across Employers by Firm Size and Firm Wage," NBER Working Papers 21235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Joseph G. Altonji & Lisa B. Kahn & Jamin D. Speer, 2016. "Cashier or Consultant? Entry Labor Market Conditions, Field of Study, and Career Success," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 361-401.
    6. Greg Kaplan & Guido Menzio, 2016. "Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 124(3), pages 771-825.
    7. Karen Kopecky & Richard Suen, 2010. "Finite State Markov-chain Approximations to Highly Persistent Processes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 701-714, July.
    8. McLaughlin, Kenneth J & Bils, Mark, 2001. "Interindustry Mobility and the Cyclical Upgrading of Labor," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 19(1), pages 94-135, January.
    9. Erdogan, Berrin & Bauer, Talya N. & Peiró, José María & Truxillo, Donald M., 2011. "Overqualified Employees: Making the Best of a Potentially Bad Situation for Individuals and Organizations," Industrial and Organizational Psychology, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(2), pages 215-232, June.
    10. Pawel Krolikowski, 2017. "Job Ladders and Earnings of Displaced Workers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-31, April.
    11. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2295-2350, November.
    12. Ruhm, Christopher J, 1991. "Are Workers Permanently Scarred by Job Displacements?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 319-324, March.
    13. Giuseppe Moscarini & Kaj Thomsson, 2007. "Occupational and Job Mobility in the US," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 109(4), pages 807-836, December.
    14. Menzio, Guido & Shi, Shouyong, 2010. "Block recursive equilibria for stochastic models of search on the job," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 145(4), pages 1453-1494, July.
    15. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    16. Stevens, Ann Huff, 1997. "Persistent Effects of Job Displacement: The Importance of Multiple Job Losses," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 165-188, January.
    17. Topel, Robert, 1990. "Specific capital and unemployment: Measuring the costs and consequences of job loss," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 181-214, January.
    18. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    19. Daron Acemoglu, 1996. "A Microfoundation for Social Increasing Returns in Human Capital Accumulation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 779-804.
    20. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8grh35j2 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter, 2010. "Does Wage Persistence Matter for Employment Fluctuations? Evidence from Displaced Workers," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-21, July.
    22. Giovanni L. Violante, 2002. "Technological Acceleration, Skill Transferability, and the Rise in Residual Inequality," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(1), pages 297-338.
    23. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," Post-Print hal-03458567, HAL.
    24. Modestino, Alicia Sasser & Shoag, Daniel & Ballance, Joshua, 2016. "Downskilling: changes in employer skill requirements over the business cycle," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 333-347.
    25. repec:bla:scandj:v:109:y:2008:i:4:p:807-836 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Prescott, Edward C., 1974. "Equilibrium search and unemployment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 188-209, February.
    27. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms985085gkbp is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Michael Podgursky & Paul Swaim, 1987. "Job Displacement and Earnings Loss: Evidence from the Displaced Worker Survey," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 41(1), pages 17-29, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Francesca Caselli & Francesco Grigoli & Damiano Sandri & Antonio Spilimbergo, 2022. "Mobility Under the COVID-19 Pandemic: Asymmetric Effects Across Gender and Age," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(1), pages 105-138, March.
    2. Antonio Martins-Neto & Xavier Cirera & Alex Coad, 2024. "Routine-biased technological change and employee outcomes after mass layoffs: evidence from Brazil," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 33(3), pages 555-583.
    3. Vasilios D. Kosteas, 2020. "Occupational concentration and outcomes for displaced workers," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 99(4), pages 977-997, August.
    4. Barnette Justin & Odongo Kennedy & Reynolds C. Lockwood, 2021. "Changes Over Time in the Cost of Job Loss for Young Men and Women," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(1), pages 335-378, January.
    5. Darapheak Tin & Chung Tran, 2023. "Lifecycle Earnings Risk and Insurance: New Evidence from Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 99(325), pages 141-174, June.
    6. Benjamin S. Griffy, 2021. "Search And The Sources Of Life‐Cycle Inequality," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(4), pages 1321-1362, November.
    7. Barnette, Justin, 2020. "Wealth After Job Displacement," MPRA Paper 103642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Barnette, Justin, 2020. "Replacement Rates and Long-Term Outcomes after Job Displacement," MPRA Paper 103644, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kenneth Burdett & Carlos Carrillo-Tudela & Melvyn Coles, 2020. "The Cost of Job Loss," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(4), pages 1757-1798.
    2. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    3. Guo, Junjie, 2022. "The persistent impact of multiple offers," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Pawel Krolikowski, 2018. "Choosing a Control Group for Displaced Workers," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 71(5), pages 1232-1254, October.
    5. Christopher Huckfeldt, 2022. "Understanding the Scarring Effect of Recessions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1273-1310, April.
    6. Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2016. "Unemployment history and frictional wage dispersion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 5-22.
    7. Jake Bradley & Axel Gottfries, 2021. "A job ladder model with stochastic employment opportunities," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 12(4), pages 1399-1430, November.
    8. William J. Carrington & Bruce Fallick, 2017. "Why Do Earnings Fall with Job Displacement?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 688-722, October.
    9. Serdar Birinci, 2019. "Spousal Labor Supply Response to Job Displacement and Implications for Optimal Transfers," Working Papers 2019-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised Jan 2024.
    10. William J. Carrington & Bruce Fallick, 2014. "Why Do Earnings Fall with Job Displacement?," Working Papers (Old Series) 1405, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    11. Victoria Gregory & Guido Menzio & David G. Wiczer, 2021. "The Alpha Beta Gamma of the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 28663, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Pawel Krolikowski, 2017. "Job Ladders and Earnings of Displaced Workers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 1-31, April.
    13. Jeremy Lise & Jean-Marc Robin, 2017. "The Macrodynamics of Sorting between Workers and Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(4), pages 1104-1135, April.
    14. Cozzi, Marco & Fella, Giulio, 2016. "Job displacement risk and severance pay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 166-181.
    15. William J. Carrington, 2015. "Do We Know Why Earnings Fall with Job Displacement? Working Paper: 2015-01," Working Papers 49908, Congressional Budget Office.
    16. Nellie Zhao & Henry Hyatt & Isabel Cairo, 2016. "The U.S. Job Ladder and the Low-Wage Jobs of the New Millennium," 2016 Meeting Papers 1414, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Jon Ellingsen & Caroline Espegren, 2022. "Lost in transition? Earnings losses of displaced petroleum workers," Working Papers No 06/2022, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    18. Cozzi, Marco & Fella, Giulio, 2016. "Job displacement risk and severance pay," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 166-181.
    19. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Ricardo Lagos, 2007. "A Model of Job and Worker Flows," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(5), pages 770-819, October.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed018:1207. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.