[go: up one dir, main page]

IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rbz/wpaper/11029.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

TheshorttermcostsofreducingtrendinflationinSouthAfrica

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Loewald
  • Konstantin Makrelov
  • Ekaterina Pirozhkova
Abstract
The short-term costs of reducing trend inflation in South Africa

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Loewald & Konstantin Makrelov & Ekaterina Pirozhkova, 2022. "TheshorttermcostsofreducingtrendinflationinSouthAfrica," Working Papers 11029, South African Reserve Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11029
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.resbank.co.za/content/dam/sarb/publications/working-papers/2022/WP%202208.pdf
    File Function: Revision
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurence Ball, 1994. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio?," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 155-193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    3. Ken Miyajima & James Yetman, 2019. "Assessing inflation expectations anchoring for heterogeneous agents: analysts, businesses and trade unions," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(41), pages 4499-4515, September.
    4. JonasD.M. Fisher & Ryan Peters, 2010. "Using Stock Returns to Identify Government Spending Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 414-436, May.
    5. Bankim Chadha & Paul R. Masson & Guy Meredith, 2019. "Models of Inflation and the Costs of Disinflation," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Macroeconomic Modelling and Monetary and Exchange Rate Regimes, chapter 3, pages 57-99, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    6. Stanley Fischer & Franco Modigliani, 1978. "Towards an understanding of the real effects and costs of inflation," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 114(4), pages 810-833, December.
    7. Alain Kabundi & Asi Mbelu, 2018. "Has the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through changed in South Africa?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 86(3), pages 339-360, September.
    8. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.
    9. Carlos Eduardo S. Gonçalves & Alexandre Carvalho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies' Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 233-243, February.
    10. Boschen, John F. & Weise, Charles L., 2001. "The Ex Ante Credibility of Disinflation Policy and the Cost of Reducing Inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 323-347, July.
    11. Cochrane, John H., 1998. "What do the VARs mean? Measuring the output effects of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 277-300, April.
    12. Janine Aron & Greg Farrell & John Muellbauer & Peter Sinclair, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices, and Monetary Policy in South Africa," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 144-164, January.
    13. Alain N. Kabundi & Mr. Montfort Mlachila, 2018. "Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2018/173, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Alan S. Blinder & Michael Ehrmann & Marcel Fratzscher & Jakob De Haan & David-Jan Jansen, 2008. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 910-945, December.
    15. Bowdler, Christopher, 2009. "Openness, exchange rate regimes and the Phillips curve," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 148-160, February.
    16. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "Determinants of the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 117-135.
    17. Nicolás De Roux & Marc Hofstetter, 2014. "Sacrifice Ratios and Inflation Targeting: The Role of Credibility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 381-401, December.
    18. Heinrich Bohlmann & Rod Crompton, 2020. "The impact on the South African economy of alternative regulatory arrangements in the petroleum sector," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-153, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    20. Katharine S. Neiss, 2001. "The markup and inflation: evidence in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(2), pages 570-587, May.
    21. Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani & Robert G. King & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Globalization and Equilibrium Inflation-Output Tradeoffs [with Comments]," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 2005(1), pages 171-203.
    22. Ansgar Belke & Tobias Böing, 2014. "Sacrifice Ratios for Euro Area Countries: New Evidence on the Costs of Price Stability," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 47(4), pages 455-471, December.
    23. Hofstetter, Marc, 2008. "Disinflations in Latin America and the Caribbean: A free lunch?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 327-345, March.
    24. Cukierman Alex, 1992. "CENTRAL BANK STRATEGY, CREDIBILITY, AND INDEPENDANCE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE: Compte Rendu par Dominique Cariofillo," Journal des Economistes et des Etudes Humaines, De Gruyter, vol. 3(4), pages 581-590, December.
    25. Hayelom Yrgaw Gereziher & Naser Yenus Nuru, 2021. "Structural estimates of the South African sacrifice ratio," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2021-12, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    26. Monique B. Reid & Pierre L. Siklos, 2022. "How Firms and Experts View The Phillips Curve: Evidence from Individual and Aggregate Data from South Africa," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(12), pages 3355-3376, September.
    27. Daniels, Joseph P & Nourzad, Farrokh & Vanhoose, David D, 2005. "Openness, Central Bank Independence, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(2), pages 371-379, April.
    28. Katharine S. Neiss, 2001. "The markup and inflation: evidence in OECD countries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(2), pages 570-587, May.
    29. Ball, Laurence, 1995. "Disinflation with imperfect credibility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 5-23, February.
    30. Christopher Loewald & Konstantin Makrelov & Andreas Wrgtter, 2021. "Addressing low labour utilisation in South Africa," Working Papers 11008, South African Reserve Bank.
    31. De Gregorio, Jose, 1992. "The effects of inflation on economic growth : Lessons from Latin America," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 417-425, April.
    32. David Romer, 1993. "Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(4), pages 869-903.
    33. Daniels, Joseph P. & VanHoose, David D., 2009. "Openness, income-tax progressivity, and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 485-491, September.
    34. repec:pri:cepsud:161blinder is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Carlos Eduardo S. Gon«Alves & Alexandre Carvalho, 2009. "Inflation Targeting Matters: Evidence from OECD Economies' Sacrifice Ratios," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 233-243, February.
    36. Alberto Coco & Nicola Viegi, 2019. "The monetary policy of the South African Reserve Bank: stance, communication and credibility," Working Papers 788, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    37. Taylor, John B, 1983. "Union Wage Settlements during a Disinflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(5), pages 981-993, December.
    38. Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani, 2005. "Globalization and Equilibrium Inflation-Output Tradeoffs," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 171-192, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    39. Rod Crompton & Midesh Sing & Vernon Filter & Nonhlanhla Msimango, 2020. "Petrol price regulation in South Africa: Is it meeting its intended objectives?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2020-140, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    40. Byron Botha & Lauren Kuhn & Daan Steenkamp, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa," Working Papers 10211, South African Reserve Bank.
    41. Daniels, Joseph P. & VanHoose, David D., 2013. "Exchange-rate pass through, openness, and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 131-150.
    42. Guy Debelle & Stanley Fischer, 1994. "How independent should a central bank be?," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 38, pages 195-225.
    43. Assaf Razin & Prakash Loungani, 2005. "Globalization and Inflation-Output Tradeoffs," NBER Working Papers 11641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. Frenkel, Michael & Mehrez, Gil, 2000. "Inflation and the Misallocation of Resources," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 38(4), pages 616-628, October.
    45. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    46. Alex Cukierman, 1992. "Central Bank Strategy, Credibility, and Independence: Theory and Evidence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262031981, April.
    47. Bowdler, Christopher & Nunziata, Luca, 2010. "Labor market structures and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 816-826, September.
    48. Badinger, Harald, 2009. "Globalization, the output-inflation tradeoff and inflation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 888-907, November.
    49. Andreas Fischer, 1996. "Central bank independence and sacrifice ratios," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 5-18, January.
    50. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    51. Michael Bruno & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1985. "Economics of Worldwide Stagflation," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number brun85-1.
    52. Harold Brumm & Richard Krashevski, 2003. "The Sacrifice Ratio and Central Bank Independence Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 157-168, April.
    53. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "The sacrifice ratio and core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-421.
    54. Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Inflation-output trade-off: Old measures, new determinants?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    55. Hajime Katayama & Natalia Ponomareva & Malvin Sharma, 2019. "What Determines the Sacrifice Ratio? A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(5), pages 960-988, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Eric Schaling & Kgotso Morema, 2022. "Optimalinterestrategapsforflexibleinflationtargeting," Working Papers 11037, South African Reserve Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Martin Stojanovikj & Goran Petrevski, 2024. "Inflation targeting and disinflation costs in Emerging Market economies," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(1), pages 283-312, February.
    2. Magkonis, Georgios & Zekente, Kalliopi-Maria, 2020. "Inflation-output trade-off: Old measures, new determinants?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Petrevski, Goran, 2023. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Targeting: A Survey of the Empirical Literature," EconStor Preprints 271122, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Bowdler, Christopher & Nunziata, Luca, 2010. "Labor market structures and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 816-826, September.
    5. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "Determinants of the sacrifice ratio: Evidence from OECD and non-OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 117-135.
    6. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2014. "The sacrifice ratio and core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 400-421.
    7. Joseph Daniels & Sandeep Mazumder & David VanHoose, 2015. "Implications of Globalization for the Output-inflation Relationship: an Assessment," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 26(1), pages 39-60, February.
    8. Daniels, Joseph P. & VanHoose, David D., 2013. "Exchange-rate pass through, openness, and the sacrifice ratio," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 131-150.
    9. Mazumder, Sandeep, 2017. "Output gains from accelerating core inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-74.
    10. Danilo José Rodrigues Passos & Pedro Garcia Duarte, 2014. "Reavaliando A Relação Entre Independência Do Banco Central E Custos De Desinflação: Uma Análise De Viés De Seleção," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41st Brazilian Economics Meeting] 040, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    11. Andrea Vaona, 2015. "The price-price Phillips curve in small open economies and monetary unions: theory and empirics," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 281-307, June.
    12. Joseph Daniels & David VanHoose, 2009. "Trade Openness, Capital Mobility, and the Sacrifice Ratio," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 473-487, September.
    13. Down Ian, 2009. "Central Bank Independence, Disinflations and Monetary Policy," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(3), pages 1-22, January.
    14. Sandeep Mazumder, 2014. "European Monetary Union and the Cost of Disinflation," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 19(2), pages 1-20, September.
    15. Daniels, Joseph P. & VanHoose, David D., 2009. "Openness, income-tax progressivity, and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 485-491, September.
    16. André Lunardelli & Marcio Issao Nakane, 2019. "The New Keynesian Model and Sacrifice Ratios: Some Measurement Issues," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_18, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    17. Thomas Jordan, 1997. "Disinflation costs, accelerating inflation gains, and central bank independence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 133(1), pages 1-21, March.
    18. Harold Brumm & Richard Krashevski, 2003. "The Sacrifice Ratio and Central Bank Independence Revisited," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 157-168, April.
    19. Giuseppe Diana & MoÏse Sidiropoulos, 2006. "Central Bank Independence and the Cost of Disinflation: Why the Wage Contracts Length Matters?," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 12(3), pages 287-297, August.
    20. Dinabandhu Sethi & Debashis Acharya, 2019. "Credibility of inflation targeting: some recent Asian evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 203-219, August.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rbz:wpaper:11029. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jessica VanWyk (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/rbagvza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.