[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/rae/wpaper/201710.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Export Decision under Risk

Author

Listed:
  • José De Sousa
  • Anne-Célia Disdier
  • Carl Gaigné
Abstract
Using firm and industry data, we unveil two empirical regularities: (i) Demand uncertainty not only reduces export probabilities but also decreases export quantities and increases export prices; (ii) The most productive exporters are more affected by higher industry-wide expenditure volatility than are the least productive exporters. We rationalize these regularities by developing a new firm-based trade model wherein managers are risk averse. Higher volatility induces the reallocation of export shares from the most to the least productive incumbents. Greater skewness of the demand distribution and/or higher trade costs weaken this effect. Our results hold for a large class of consumer utility functions.

Suggested Citation

  • José De Sousa & Anne-Célia Disdier & Carl Gaigné, 2017. "Export Decision under Risk," Working Papers SMART 17-10, INRAE UMR SMART.
    • Handle: RePEc:rae:wpaper:201710
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/265728
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. de Sousa, José & Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2012. "Market access in global and regional trade," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1037-1052.
    2. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    3. Marc J. Melitz & Sašo Polanec, 2015. "Dynamic Olley-Pakes productivity decomposition with entry and exit," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 362-375, June.
    4. De Sousa, José & Disdier, Anne-Célia & Gaigné, Carl, 2020. "Export decision under risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    5. Di Comite, Francesco & Thisse, Jacques-François & Vandenbussche, Hylke, 2014. "Verti-zontal differentiation in export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1), pages 50-66.
    6. Martin L. Weitzman, 1974. "Prices vs. Quantities," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(4), pages 477-491.
    7. Francesco Caselli & Miklós Koren & Milan Lisicky & Silvana Tenreyro, 2020. "Diversification Through Trade," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(1), pages 449-502.
    8. Roc Armenter & Miklós Koren, 2015. "Economies Of Scale And The Size Of Exporters," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 482-511, June.
    9. Olga Gorbachev, 2011. "Did Household Consumption Become More Volatile?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2248-2270, August.
    10. de Sousa, José, 2012. "The currency union effect on trade is decreasing over time," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 917-920.
    11. Evgeny Zhelobodko & Sergey Kokovin & Mathieu Parenti & Jacques‐François Thisse, 2012. "Monopolistic Competition: Beyond the Constant Elasticity of Substitution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2765-2784, November.
    12. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    13. Pablo Fajgelbaum & Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman, 2011. "Income Distribution, Product Quality, and International Trade," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(4), pages 721-765.
    14. José L. Fillat & Stefania Garetto, 2015. "Risk, Returns, and Multinational Production," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(4), pages 2027-2073.
    15. Pol Antràs & C. Fritz Foley, 2015. "Poultry in Motion: A Study of International Trade Finance Practices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 123(4), pages 853-901.
    16. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January.
    17. Miklós Koren & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Volatility and Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 243-287.
    18. Impullitti, Giammario & Irarrazabal, Alfonso A. & Opromolla, Luca David, 2013. "A theory of entry into and exit from export markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 75-90.
    19. Grossman, Sanford J & Hart, Oliver D, 1981. "Implicit Contracts, Moral Hazard, and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(2), pages 301-307, May.
    20. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade, and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the United States," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Policy Externalities and International Trade Agreements, chapter 5, pages 123-175, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Dennis Novy & Alan M. Taylor, 2020. "Trade and Uncertainty," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 749-765, October.
    22. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Francis Kramarz, 2011. "An Anatomy of International Trade: Evidence From French Firms," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1453-1498, September.
    23. Helpman, Elhanan & Razin, Assaf, 1979. "A Theory of International Trade Under Uncertainty," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780123396501 edited by Shell, Karl.
    24. Kyle Handley & Nuno Limão, 2013. "Policy Uncertainty, Trade and Welfare: Theory and Evidence for China and the U.S," NBER Working Papers 19376, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Natalia Ramondo & Veronica Rappoport & Kim J. Ruhl, 2013. "The Proximity-Concentration Tradeoff under Uncertainty," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1582-1621.
    26. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    27. Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2007. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 74(2), pages 391-415.
    28. Vannoorenberghe, Gonzague & Wang, Zheng & Yu, Zhihong, 2016. "Volatility and diversification of exports: Firm-level theory and evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 216-247.
    29. Gervais, Antoine, 2018. "Uncertainty, risk aversion and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-158.
    30. Amit K. Khandelwal & Peter K. Schott & Shang-Jin Wei, 2013. "Trade Liberalization and Embedded Institutional Reform: Evidence from Chinese Exporters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2169-2195, October.
    31. World Bank, 2013. "World Development Report 2014 [Informe sobre el desarrollo mundial 2014, Riesgo y oportunidad : la administración del riesgo como instrumento de desarrollo - Panorama general]," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 16092.
    32. Dixit, Avinash K & Stiglitz, Joseph E, 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 297-308, June.
    33. Lucia Foster & John Haltiwanger & Chad Syverson, 2008. "Reallocation, Firm Turnover, and Efficiency: Selection on Productivity or Profitability?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 394-425, March.
    34. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2017. "This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(6), pages 1564-1610, June.
    35. Federico Esposito, 2016. "Risk Diversification and International Trade," 2016 Meeting Papers 302, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    36. Popov, Alexander, 2011. "Output growth and fluctuation: the role of financial openness," Working Paper Series 1368, European Central Bank.
    37. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    38. Lewis, Logan T., 2014. "Exports versus multinational production under nominal uncertainty," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 371-386.
    39. Feng, Ling & Li, Zhiyuan & Swenson, Deborah L., 2017. "Trade policy uncertainty and exports: Evidence from China's WTO accession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 20-36.
    40. Vasia Panousi & Dimitris Papanikolaou, 2012. "Investment, Idiosyncratic Risk, and Ownership," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(3), pages 1113-1148, June.
    41. Jérôme Héricourt & Clément Nedoncelle, 2016. "How Multi-Destination Firms Shape the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Trade: Micro Evidence and Aggregate Implications," Working Papers 2016-05, CEPII research center.
    42. Handley, Kyle, 2014. "Exporting under trade policy uncertainty: Theory and evidence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 50-66.
    43. Geert Bekaert & Alexander Popov, 2019. "On the Link Between the Volatility and Skewness of Growth," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(4), pages 746-790, December.
    44. Menezes, C & Geiss, C & Tressler, J, 1980. "Increasing Downside Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 921-932, December.
    45. Federico Esposito, 2017. "Entrepreneurial Risk and Diversification through Trade," Working Papers w201714, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    46. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    47. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2009. "Trade Openness and Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 91(3), pages 558-585, August.
    48. Wei, Shang-Jin, 1999. "Currency hedging and goods trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1371-1394, June.
    49. Paul Klemperer & Margaret Meyer, 1986. "Price Competition vs. Quantity Competition: The Role of Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(4), pages 618-638, Winter.
    50. Leland, Hayne E, 1972. "Theory of the Firm Facing Uncertain Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 278-291, June.
    51. Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 441-487.
    52. Krugman, Paul R., 1979. "Increasing returns, monopolistic competition, and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 469-479, November.
    53. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1993. "Financial Market Imperfections and Business Cycles," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(1), pages 77-114.
    54. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    55. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    56. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 1974. "Technological and Price Uncertainty in a Ricardian Model of International Trade," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 41(2), pages 201-217.
    57. Julian di Giovanni & Andrei A. Levchenko, 2012. "Country Size, International Trade, and Aggregate Fluctuations in Granular Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(6), pages 1083-1132.
    58. Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, 2011. "Income Distribution, Product Quality and International Trade," 2011 Meeting Papers 415, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    59. Hartman, Richard, 1972. "The effects of price and cost uncertainty on investment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 258-266, October.
    60. Sergio Correia, 2014. "REGHDFE: Stata module to perform linear or instrumental-variable regression absorbing any number of high-dimensional fixed effects," Statistical Software Components S457874, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 21 Aug 2023.
    61. L. Eeckhoudt & C. Gollier & H. Schlesinger, 2005. "Economic and financial decisions under risk," Post-Print hal-00325882, HAL.
    62. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
    63. Nguyen, Daniel X., 2012. "Demand uncertainty: Exporting delays and exporting failures," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 336-344.
    64. Abel, Andrew B, 1983. "Optimal Investment under Uncertainty," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 228-233, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lionel Fontagné & Gianluca Orefice & Roberta Piermartini, 2020. "Making small firms happy? The heterogeneous effect of trade facilitation measures," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 565-598, August.
    2. Fracasso, Andrea & Secchi, Angelo & Tomasi, Chiara, 2022. "Export pricing and exchange rate expectations under uncertainty," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 135-152.
    3. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    4. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    5. Baley, Isaac & Veldkamp, Laura & Waugh, Michael, 2020. "Can global uncertainty promote international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    6. De Sousa, José & Disdier, Anne-Célia & Gaigné, Carl, 2020. "Export decision under risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    8. William Connell & Emmanuel Dhyne & Hylke Vandenbussche, 2019. "Learning about demand abroad from wholesalers: a B2B analysis," Working Paper Research 377, National Bank of Belgium.
    9. Antoine Gervais, 2021. "Global sourcing under uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1103-1135, November.
    10. José Fillat & Stefania Garetto, 2021. "On the Origins of the Multinational Premium," Working Papers 21-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Carl Gaigné & Karine Latouche & Stéphane Turolla, 2020. "Compétitivité internationale du secteur agroalimentaire français : c’est quoi le problème ?," Post-Print hal-03346304, HAL.
    12. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Qian, Ningyu & Shen, Yinjie (Victor), 2021. "The impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing: Evidence from emerging economies," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    13. Gervais, Antoine, 2018. "Uncertainty, risk aversion and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-158.
    14. Abdul Rashid & M. Kabir Hassan & Hafsa Karamat, 2021. "Firm size and the interlinkages between sales volatility, exports, and financial stability of Pakistani manufacturing firms," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 111-134, March.
    15. Wim Naudé & Martin Cameron, 2021. "Export-Led Growth after COVID-19: The Case of Portugal," Notas Económicas, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra, issue 52, pages 7-53, July.
    16. José C. Fariñas & Ana Martín-Marcos & Francisco J. Velázquez, 2021. "The Geographical Scope of Multinational Firms and Heterogeneity," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(4), pages 761-788, September.
    17. Carbonero, Francesco & Devicienti, Francesco & Manello, Alessandro & Vannoni, Davide, 2021. "Women on board and firm export attitudes: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 192(C), pages 159-175.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Esposito, Federico, 2022. "Demand risk and diversification through international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Esposito, Federico, 2019. "Demand Risk and Diversification through Trade," MPRA Paper 99875, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Federico Esposito, 2016. "Risk Diversification and International Trade," 2016 Meeting Papers 302, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Héricourt, Jérôme & Nedoncelle, Clément, 2018. "Multi-destination firms and the impact of exchange-rate risk on trade," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 1178-1193.
    5. Gigout, Timothee, 2019. "Firm dynamics in an global and uncertain economy," MPRA Paper 96569, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Oct 2019.
    6. Antoine Gervais, 2021. "Global sourcing under uncertainty," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 54(3), pages 1103-1135, November.
    7. N. Bloom, 2016. "Fluctuations in uncertainty," Voprosy Ekonomiki, NP Voprosy Ekonomiki, issue 4.
    8. Gervais, Antoine, 2018. "Uncertainty, risk aversion and international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 145-158.
    9. Anne‐Célia Disdier & Carl Gaigné & Cristina Herghelegiu, 2023. "Do standards improve the quality of traded products?," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 56(4), pages 1238-1290, November.
    10. Urška Čede & Bogdan Chiriacescu & Péter Harasztosi & Tibor Lalinsky & Jaanika Meriküll, 2018. "Export characteristics and output volatility: comparative firm-level evidence for CEE countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(2), pages 347-376, May.
    11. Ziran Ding, 2022. "Firm heterogeneity, variable markups, and multinational production: A review from trade policy perspective," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 1311-1357, December.
    12. Abdul Rashid & M. Kabir Hassan & Hafsa Karamat, 2021. "Firm size and the interlinkages between sales volatility, exports, and financial stability of Pakistani manufacturing firms," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 11(1), pages 111-134, March.
    13. Chen, Cheng & Senga, Tatsuro & Sun, Chang & Zhang, Hongyong, 2023. "Uncertainty, imperfect information, and expectation formation over the firm’s life cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 60-77.
    14. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    15. Josué Diwambuena & Jean-Paul K. Tsasa, 2021. "The Real Effects of Uncertainty Shocks: New Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear SVAR Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS87, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    16. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Duration of membership in the world trade organization and investment-oriented remittances inflows," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 258-277.
    17. Cezar, Rafael & Gigout, Timothée & Tripier, Fabien, 2020. "Cross-border investments and uncertainty: Firm-level evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2022. "Duration of WTO Membership and Investment-Oriented Remittances Flows," EconStor Preprints 251274, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    19. Fontanelli, Luca & Guerini, Mattia & Napoletano, Mauro, 2023. "International trade and technological competition in markets with dynamic increasing returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    20. Hayakawa, Kazunobu & Ito, Tadashi & Okubo, Toshihiro, 2017. "On the stability of intra-industry trade," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-12.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    firm exports; demand uncertainty; risk aversion; expenditure volatility; skewness;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rae:wpaper:201710. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Chauvel (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inrarfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.