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Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China - at Home and Abroad

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Abstract
The increased range and quality of China's exports is a major ongoing development in the international economy with potentially far-reaching effects. In this paper, we examine the impact of the China's integration in international trade in the Portuguese labour market. On top of the direct effects of increased imports from China studied in previous research, we focus on the indirect labour market effects stemming from increased export competition in third markets. Our findings, based on matched employer-employee data in the 1991-2008 period, indicate that workers' earnings and employment are significantly negatively affected by China's competition, but only through the indirect 'market-stealing' channel. In contrast to evidence for other countries, the direct effects of Chinese import competition are mostly non-significant. The results are robust to a number of checks, and the negative impacts of indirect competition are found to be stronger for women, older and less educated workers, and workers in domestic firms.

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  • Sónia Cabral & Pedro S. Martins, 2018. "Collateral Damage? Labour Market Effects of Competing with China - at Home and Abroad," Working Papers w201812, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201812
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    Cited by:

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    2. Xuefeng Qian & Kalsoom Rafique & Yingna Wu, 2020. "Flying with the Dragon: Estimating Developing Countries’ Gains from China's Imports," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 28(5), pages 1-25, September.
    3. César, Andrés & Falcone, Guillermo & Gasparini, Leonardo, 2021. "Costs and benefits of trade shocks: Evidence from Chilean local labor markets," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
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    5. Martins, Pedro S. & Melo, António, 2024. "Making their own weather? Estimating employer labour-market power and its wage effects," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Jan-Luca Hennig, 2020. "Can labor market institutions mitigate the China syndrome? Evidence from regional labor markets in Europe," Trinity Economics Papers tep1420, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    7. Karin Mayr-Dorn & Gaia Narciso & Duc Anh Dang & Hien Phan, 2023. "Trade diversion and labor market adjustment: Vietnam and the U.S.-China trade war," Trinity Economics Papers tep0923, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    8. Katharina van Treeck & Konstantin M. Wacker, 2020. "Financial globalisation and the labour share in developing countries: The type of capital matters," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2343-2374, September.
    9. Luca Citino & Andrea Linarello, 2022. "The impact of Chinese import competition on Italian manufacturing," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 702-731, August.
    10. Jan‐Luca Hennig, 2023. "Can labour market institutions mitigate the China syndrome? Evidence from regional labour markets in Europe," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(1), pages 55-84, January.
    11. Lee Branstetter & Ana Venancio & Brian Kovak, 2019. "The China Shock and Portuguese Manufacturing," 2019 Meeting Papers 1051, Society for Economic Dynamics.

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials

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