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Improving Monetary Policy Models

Author

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  • Christopher A. Sims

    (Princeton University and NBER)

Abstract
If macroeconomic models are to be useful in policy-making, where uncertainty is pervasive, the models must be treated as probability models, whether formally or informally. Use of explicit probability models allows us to learn systematically from past mistakes, to integrate model-based uncertainty with uncertain subjective judgment, and to bind data-bassed forecasting together with theory-based projection of policy effects. Yet in the last few decades policy models at central banks have steadily shed any claims to being believable probability models of the data to which they are fit. Here we describe the current state of policy modeling, suggest some reasons why we have reached this state, and assess some promising directions for future progress.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher A. Sims, 2006. "Improving Monetary Policy Models," Working Papers 74, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    • Handle: RePEc:pri:cepsud:128
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frank Schorfheide, 2000. "Loss function-based evaluation of DSGE models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(6), pages 645-670.
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    6. Christopher A. Sims, 2002. "The Role of Models and Probabilities in the Monetary Policy Process," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 33(2), pages 1-62.
    7. Sims, Christopher A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2008. "Methods for inference in large multiple-equation Markov-switching models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 255-274, October.
    8. Sims, Christopher A, 2001. "Fiscal Consequences for Mexico of Adopting the Dollar," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 597-616, May.
    9. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2005. "An estimated DSGE model of the US economy with an application to natural rate measures," Proceedings, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    11. Christopher A. Sims, 2004. "Econometrics for Policy Analysis: Progress and Regress," De Economist, Springer, vol. 152(2), pages 167-175, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Levine, Paul & McAdam, Peter & Pearlman, Joseph, 2012. "Probability models and robust policy rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 246-262.
    2. Deak, S. & Levine, P. & Mirza, A. & Pearlman, J., 2019. "Designing Robust Monetary Policy Using Prediction Pools," Working Papers 19/11, Department of Economics, City University London.
    3. Goutsmedt, Aurélien & Sergi, Francesco & Cherrier, Beatrice & Claveau, François & Fontan, Clément & Acosta, Juan, 2023. "To change or not to change The evolution of forecasting models at the Bank of England," SocArXiv m2cet, Center for Open Science.
    4. Adolfson, Malin & Laséen, Stefan & Lindé, Jesper & Ratto, Marco, 2019. "Identification versus misspecification in New Keynesian monetary policy models," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 225-246.
    5. Mr. Francis Vitek, 2009. "Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy: A Panel Unobserved Components Approach," IMF Working Papers 2009/238, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Sofía Bauducco & Aleš Bulir & Martin Èihák, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 545-565, December.
    7. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "La coordination des politiques monétaire et budgétaire: Aperçu théorique [Coordination of monetary and fiscal policies: Theoretical Overview]," MPRA Paper 48020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Adolfson, Malin & Lindé, Jesper, 2011. "Parameter Identification in a Estimated New Keynesian Open Economy Model," Working Paper Series 251, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    9. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2009. "A comparision of forecast, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," CAMA Working Papers 2009-03, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    10. Seth Pruitt, 2012. "Uncertainty Over Models and Data: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 341-365, March.
    11. Juan Acosta & Beatrice Cherrier & François Claveau & Clément Fontan & Aurélien Goutsmedt & Francesco Sergi, 2023. "Six Decades of Economic Research at the Bank of England," Post-Print hal-03919394, HAL.
    12. Dedu, Vasile & Stoica, Tiberiu, 2014. "The Impact of Monetaru Policy on the Romanian Economy," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 71-86, June.
    13. Dario Caldara & Richard Harrison & Anna Lipinska, 2012. "Practical tools for policy analysis in DSGE models with missing channels," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-72, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Szabolcs Deak & Paul Levine & Afrasiab Mirza & Son Pham, 2023. "Negotiating the Wilderness of Bounded Rationality through Robust Policy," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0223, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    15. Avouyi-Dovi, Sanvi & Sahuc, Jean-Guillaume, 2011. "On the welfare costs of misspecified monetary policy objectives," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 151-161, June.
    16. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2013. "Interaction entre politique monétaire et politique budgétaire:Cas de la Grèce [Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interactions : The Greece Case]," MPRA Paper 45931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Rochelle M. Edge & Michael T. Kiley & Jean-Philippe Laforte, 2010. "A comparison of forecast performance between Federal Reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced-form models, and a DSGE model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 720-754.
    18. Stan du Plessis & Ben Smit & Rudi Steinbach, 2014. "A mediumsized open economy DSGE model of South Africa," Working Papers 6319, South African Reserve Bank.
    19. Jaromír Beneš & Andrew Binning & Kirdan Lees, 2008. "Incorporating judgement with DSGE models," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/10, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    20. Szabolcs Deak & Paul Levine & Afrasiab Mirza & Joseph Pearlman, 2020. "Is Price Level Targeting a Robust Monetary Rule?," Discussion Papers 20-27, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
    21. Daly, Hounaida & Smida, Mounir, 2014. "Fiscal Theory of Price Level," MPRA Paper 60142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Dario Caldara & Richard Harrison & Anna Lipińska, 2014. "Practical Tools For Policy Analysis In Dsge Models With Missing Shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(7), pages 1145-1163, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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