[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pre/wpaper/201845.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Monetary Policy and Bubbles in US REITs

Author

Listed:
  • Petre Caraiani

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Adrian Cantemir Călin

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, Romanian Academy)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa)

Abstract
In this paper, we analyze the effects of monetary policy on the bubbles in the Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) sector of the United States. We use a time-varying vector autoregressive (VAR) model over the quarterly period of 1972:1 to 2018:1. We find protracted periods, starting from the onset of the recent financial crisis to the end of the sample period, where contractionary monetary policy is associated with increases in the bubble component in the REITs of the US economy. This result, which is robust to alternative REITs indexes, is contrary to the “conventional" view, as well as to the predictions of standard models of bubbles.

Suggested Citation

  • Petre Caraiani & Adrian Cantemir Călin & Rangan Gupta, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Bubbles in US REITs," Working Papers 201845, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201845
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Escobari, Diego & Jafarinejad, Mohammad, 2016. "Date stamping bubbles in Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 224-230.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
    3. Ogonna Nneji & Chris Brooks & Charles Ward, 2013. "Commercial Real Estate and Equity Market Bubbles: Are They Contagious to REITs?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 50(12), pages 2496-2516, September.
    4. Huber, Florian & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2020. "International Housing Markets, Unconventional Monetary Policy, And The Zero Lower Bound," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 774-806, June.
    5. Beatrice Simo-Kengne & Stephen Miller & Rangan Gupta & Mehmet Balcilar, 2016. "Evolution of the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the US: the Role of Asset Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 52(3), pages 226-243, April.
    6. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    7. Marfatia, Hardik A. & Gupta, Rangan & Cakan, Esin, 2017. "The international REIT’s time-varying response to the U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic surprises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 640-653.
    8. Jordi Galí & Luca Gambetti, 2015. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Stock Market Bubbles: Some Evidence," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 233-257, January.
    9. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q IV), pages 17-51.
    10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    11. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2013. "House Prices and Stock Prices: Different Roles in the US Monetary Transmission Mechanism," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(4), pages 1084-1106, October.
    12. Wu, Wenbin, 2016. "Are financial markets less responsive to monetary policy shocks at the zero lower bound?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 258-261.
    13. Charles Rahal,, 2016. "Housing markets and unconventional monetary policy," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 67-80.
    14. Jordi Gal?, 2014. "Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 721-752, March.
    15. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Jacobsen, Dag Henning, 2010. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 218-229, December.
    16. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 200913, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    17. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "Time-varying role of macroeconomic shocks on house prices in the US and UK: evidence from over 150 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2249-2285, May.
    18. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    19. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    20. Marco Del Negro & Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2015. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy: A Corrigendum," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(4), pages 1342-1345.
    21. Rangan Gupta & Alain Kabundi, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on house price inflation," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(6), pages 616-626, November.
    22. Del Negro, Marco & Otrok, Christopher, 2007. "99 Luftballons: Monetary policy and the house price boom across U.S. states," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1962-1985, October.
    23. Gupta, Rangan & Jurgilas, Marius & Kabundi, Alain, 2010. "The effect of monetary policy on real house price growth in South Africa: A factor-augmented vector autoregression (FAVAR) approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 315-323, January.
    24. Caraiani, Petre & Călin, Adrian Cantemir, 2018. "The effects of monetary policy on stock market bubbles at zero lower bound: Revisiting the evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 55-58.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Gupta, Rangan & Ma, Jun & Theodoridis, Konstantinos & Wohar, Mark E., 2023. "Is there a national housing market bubble brewing in the United States?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 27(8), pages 2191-2228, December.
    2. Petre Caraiani & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2022. "Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on Housing Prices in the United States: The Role of Sentiment," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 241-261, July.
    3. Kola Ijasan & Peterson Owusu Junior & George Tweneboah & Tunbosun Oyedokun & Anokye M. Adam, 2021. "Analysing the relationship between global REITs and exchange rates: Fresh evidence from frequency-based quantile regressions," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 25(3), pages 58-91, September.
    4. Cepni, Oguzhan & Dul, Wiehan & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2021. "The dynamics of U.S. REITs returns to uncertainty shocks: A proxy SVAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    5. Yanlin Shi, 2023. "A new unique impulse response function in linear vector autoregressive models," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(2), pages 460-468, June.
    6. Shixuan Wang & Rangan Gupta & Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on US REITs Moments: Evidence from VARs with Functional Shocks," Working Papers 202219, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    7. Caraiani, Petre & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Nielsen, Joshua, 2023. "Monetary policy and bubbles in G7 economies using a panel VAR approach: Implications for sustainable development," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 133-155.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Rangan Gupta & Zhihui Lv & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Changing Dynamics of the U.S. REITs Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-12, May.
    2. Petre Caraiani & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2022. "Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on Housing Prices in the United States: The Role of Sentiment," Journal of Behavioral Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 241-261, July.
    3. Petre Caraiani & Adrian Cantemir Călin, 2020. "Housing markets, monetary policy, and the international co‐movement of housing bubbles," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 365-375, May.
    4. André, Christophe & Caraiani, Petre & Călin, Adrian Cantemir & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Can monetary policy lean against housing bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Knut Are Aastveit & Francesco Furlanetto & Francesca Loria, 2023. "Has the Fed Responded to House and Stock Prices? A Time-Varying Analysis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 105(5), pages 1314-1324, September.
    6. Caraiani, Petre & Gupta, Rangan & Nel, Jacobus & Nielsen, Joshua, 2023. "Monetary policy and bubbles in G7 economies using a panel VAR approach: Implications for sustainable development," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 133-155.
    7. Vorada Limjaroenrat, 2017. "Distributional Effects of Monetary Policy on Housing Bubbles: Some Evidence," PIER Discussion Papers 74, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    8. Caraiani, Petre & Cǎlin, Adrian Cantemir, 2020. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on stock market bubbles: International evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    9. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019. "Time-varying impact of uncertainty shocks on the US housing market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 15-20.
    10. Vasilios Plakandaras & Rangan Gupta & Constantinos Katrakilidis & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "Time-varying role of macroeconomic shocks on house prices in the US and UK: evidence from over 150 years of data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2249-2285, May.
    11. Beckers, Benjamin & Bernoth, Kerstin, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Asset Mispricing," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145684, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    13. Anastasios Evgenidis & Apostolos Fasianos, 2021. "Unconventional Monetary Policy and Wealth Inequalities in Great Britain," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(1), pages 115-175, February.
    14. Hudepohl, Tom & van Lamoen, Ryan & de Vette, Nander, 2021. "Quantitative easing and exuberance in stock markets: Evidence from the euro area," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    15. Pascal Paul, 2020. "The Time-Varying Effect of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(4), pages 690-704, October.
    16. Caraiani, Petre & Luik, Marc-André & Wesselbaum, Dennis, 2020. "Credit policy and asset price bubbles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    17. Herwartz, Helmut & Maxand, Simone & Rohloff, Hannes, 2018. "Lean against the wind or float with the storm? Revisiting the monetary policy asset price nexus by means of a novel statistical identification approach," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 354, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    18. Benjamin Beckers & Kerstin Bernoth, 2016. "Monetary Policy and Mispricing in Stock Markets," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1605, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Filardo, Andrew & Hubert, Paul & Rungcharoenkitkul, Phurichai, 2022. "Monetary policy reaction function and the financial cycle," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    REITs; Bubbles; VAR; Monetary Policy;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201845. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Rangan Gupta (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/decupza.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.