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Convergence Patterns in Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: Evidence from the Euro Area

Author

Listed:
  • Nikolaos Antonakakis

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Portsmouth; Department of Business and Management, Webster Vienna Private University)

  • Christina Christou

    (University of Pireaus, Department of Banking & Financial Management, Greece)

  • Juncal Cunado

    (University of Navarra, School of Economics, Spain)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract
This study examines the convergence patterns of Euro Area (EA) 17 countries’ sovereign bond yield spreads (relative to German bund) over the period of March 2002 to December 2015, by employing the convergence algorithm developed by Phillips and Sul (2007). The empirical findings suggest rejection of full convergence across the EA17 countries’ bond yields spreads, and the presence of a certain number of clubs. In particular, three subgroup convergence clubs emerge, with Cyprus, Spain, France, Greece, Ireland, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Latvia, Portugal and Slovenia in the first; Belgium, Italy and Malta in the second; and Austria, Finland, Netherlands and Slovakia in the third club. Moreover, there is also evidence that the first two clubs could be merged to form a larger convergence club. The transitional curves indicate that, despite short-run divergences, EU17 sovereign bond yield spreads tend to converge over the long, with the exception of those in Greece and Cyprus, indicating the strong attempts of most of the countries under investigation to adopt fiscal policies that eventually contribute to a convergence pattern.

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis & Christina Christou & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Convergence Patterns in Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: Evidence from the Euro Area," Working Papers 201616, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201616
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    2. George A. Matysiak & Krzysztof Olszewski, 2019. "A panel analysis of Polish regional cities: residential price convergence in the primary market," NBP Working Papers 316, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    3. André, Christophe & Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan, 2024. "Revisiting international house price convergence using house price level data," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(2).
    4. Cavallaro, Eleonora & Villani, Ilaria, 2022. "Beyond financial deepening: Rethinking the finance-growth relationship in an uneven world," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    5. Qin, Weiping & Cho, Sungjun & Hyde, Stuart, 2023. "Time-varying bond market integration and the impact of financial crises," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Mita Bhattacharya & John Inekwe, 2021. "Convergence in Sovereign Debt Defaults: Quantifying the Roles of Institutions," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(3), pages 792-811, June.
    7. Nicholas Apergis & Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2018. "Convergence in Income Inequality: Further Evidence from the Club Clustering Methodology across States in the U.S," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 24(2), pages 147-161, May.
    8. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & David Gabauer, 2021. "The impact of Euro through time: Exchange rate dynamics under different regimes," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1375-1408, January.
    9. Gilles Dufrénot & Fredj Jawadi & Zied Ftiti, 2022. "Sovereign bond market integration in the euro area: a new empirical conceptualization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 318(1), pages 147-161, November.
    10. Holmes, Mark J. & Iregui, Ana María & Otero, Jesús, 2019. "Interest rate convergence across maturities: Evidence from bank data in an emerging market economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 57-70.
    11. Wojciech Grabowski & Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, 2019. "News Releases, Credit Rating Announcements, and Anti-Crisis Measures as Determinants of Sovereign Bond Spreads in the Peripheral Euro-Area Countries," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(2), pages 149-173, April.
    12. Gabauer, David, 2021. "Dynamic measures of asymmetric & pairwise connectedness within an optimal currency area: Evidence from the ERM I system," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Agnieszka Głodowska, 2017. "Business Environment and Economic Growth in the European Union Countries: What Can Be Explained for the Convergence?," Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, Centre for Strategic and International Entrepreneurship at the Cracow University of Economics., vol. 5(4), pages 189-204.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign bond yield spreads; Club convergence; Euro Area;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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