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Impact of Volatility and Equity Market Uncertainty on Herd Behavior: Evidence from UK REITs

Author

Listed:
  • Omokolade Akinsomi

    (School of Construction Economics and Management, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa)

  • Yener Coskun

    (Capital Markets Board of Turkey, Eskisehir Yolu, Ankara, Turkey)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa.)

  • Chi Keung Marco Lau

    (Newcastle Business School, Northumbria University, Newcastle, UK)

Abstract
Employing static and dynamic models that capture herding under different market regimes, we provide novel evidence on the herding behaviour of UK-listed Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Our sample is extensive and covers the period from 30/6/2004 to 5/4/2016. Estimates of herding behaviour are derived using a Markov regime-switching model. The analysis suggests the existence of three market regimes (low, high and extreme or crash volatility) with transition ordered as ‘low, high and crash volatility’. Although static herding model rejects the existence of herding in REITs markets, estimates of the regimes switching model reveal substantial evidence of herding behaviours under the low volatility regime. Most interestingly we observe a shift from anti-herding behaviour during high volatility regimes to herding behaviour under low volatility regime, with this caused by the UK VIX.

Suggested Citation

  • Omokolade Akinsomi & Yener Coskun & Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau, 2016. "Impact of Volatility and Equity Market Uncertainty on Herd Behavior: Evidence from UK REITs," Working Papers 201688, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201688
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Esin Cakan & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Josine Uwilingiye, 2019. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Herding Behavior Evidence from the South African Housing Market," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(1), pages 88-113, March.
    2. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Nurudeen Abu & Tayo P. Ogundunmade, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in G7 countries: evidence of long-range dependence and cointegration," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 541-556, May.
    3. Akshita Singh & Shailendra Kumar & Utkarsh Goel & Amar Johri, 2023. "Behavioural biases in real estate investment: a literature review and future research agenda," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2020. "Is the Housing Market in the United States Really Weakly-Efficient?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(14), pages 1124-1134, July.
    5. Sercan Demiralay & Erhan Kilincarslan, 2024. "Uncertainty Measures and Sector-Specific REITs in a Regime-Switching Environment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 545-584, October.
    6. Liu, Jian & Chen, Yan & Liao, Shufei & Cheng, Cheng & Fu, Yongge, 2023. "Information spillovers in Hong Kong REITs and related asset markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 215-229.
    7. Geoffrey M. Ngene & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Impact of Housing Policy Uncertainty on Herding Behavior: Evidence from UK's Regional Housing Markets," Working Papers 202115, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    8. Lesame, Keagile & Ngene, Geoffrey & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2024. "Herding in international REITs markets around the COVID-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(PB).
    9. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2021. "The persistence of economic policy uncertainty: Evidence of long range dependence," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 568(C).
    10. Coskun, Esra Alp & Lau, Chi Keung Marco & Kahyaoglu, Hakan, 2020. "Uncertainty and herding behavior: evidence from cryptocurrencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Herd behavior; UK REITs; Markov-switching; Time-varying probabilities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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