[Remote diagnosis of the RWI business cycle model]"> [Remote diagnosis of the RWI business cycle model]"> [Remote diagnosis of the RWI">
[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/95292.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Ferndiagnose des RWI-Konjunkturmodells
[Remote diagnosis of the RWI business cycle model]

Author

Listed:
  • Quaas, Georg
Abstract
The German Institute for Economic Research Berlin (DIW), the Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH) and the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut Essen (RWI) have used their own models to calculate the macroeconomic effects of the measures under the coalition agreement for the 19th parliamentary term and published them in the spring report 2018 of the Joint Economic Forecast project group. A comparison with the simulations of two other econometric models, including an older version of the RWI business cycle model (KM), suggests that these effects have been overestimated. The study focuses on the results of the RWI, which least overestimates those effects. To test the overestimation hypothesis, (1) a black box method is used to show that the implicit multipliers of the simulation results are not plausible. In a further attempt (2), the problematic effects are calculated on the basis of multipliers published in 2012 from an older version of the KM and compared with those of the new version. The hypothesis can be confirmed. Finally, (3) the latest documentation of the new versions of the KM shows that the price development indices are not calculated correctly. This would explain why the simulation results of the KM have a bias. In view of the importance of the KM for the Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut and beyond that for the project group Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, which informs the public twice a year about the expected economic development, but also because other models may also be affected by this problem, the experts should be informed and encouraged to check their own models. The public should be warned against overly optimistic forecasts. It goes without saying that the wrong calculation method, if it is still used, must be eliminated before further simulations and forecasts are published. For a publicly funded model, it would also be necessary to document which of the technically possible methods for implementing the annual overlap method has been implemented.

Suggested Citation

  • Quaas, Georg, 2019. "Ferndiagnose des RWI-Konjunkturmodells [Remote diagnosis of the RWI business cycle model]," MPRA Paper 95292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95292
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95292/1/MPRA_paper_95292.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/95427/1/MPRA_paper_95427.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Georg Quaas & Mathias Klein, 2012. "Einnahmen- und ausgabenseitige Multiplikatoren der deutschen Volkswirtschaft," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 92(10), pages 692-698, October.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2004. "Zur Einführung der Vorjahrespreisbasis in der deutschen Statistik: Besonderheiten der Quartalsrechnung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(15), pages 14-21, August.
    3. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2018. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Boom – Luft wird dünner," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(08), pages 03-62, April.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Vorjahrespreisbasis: Rechenregeln für die Aggregation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(22), pages 12-16, November.
    5. Ullrich Heilemann & Karsten Müller, 2018. "Wenig Unterschiede – Zur Treffsicherheit Internationaler Prognosen und Prognostiker [Few differences—on the accuracy of international forecasts and forecaster]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 12(3), pages 195-233, December.
    6. Heilemann, Ullrich & Quaas, Georg & Ulrich, Jens, 2006. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen der Haushaltspolitik des Koalitionsvertrages," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 86(1), pages 27-36.
    7. Quaas, Georg, 2009. "Realgrößen und Preisindizes im alten und im neuen VGR-System [Macro-economic aggregates in real terms and price indices in the old and the new system of national accounts]," MPRA Paper 22316, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Apr 2010.
    8. Barabas, György & Döhrn, Roland & Gebhardt, Heinz, 2006. "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen der Haushaltspolitik: Anmerkungen zu Heilemann, Quaas und Ulrich," Wirtschaftsdienst – Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik (1949 - 2007), ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 86(5), pages 322-325.
    9. Quaas, Georg, 2006. "Ganzheitliche Wirkungen von Dummyvariablen auf die Prognosegenauigkeit ökonometrischer Modelle – analysiert am Beispiel des RWI-Konjunkturmodells KM59 [Holistic effects of dummy variables on the fo," MPRA Paper 19028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2009.
    10. Quaas, Georg, 2009. "Die Umsetzung der Annual-Overlap-Methode in ökonometrischen Modellen – eine Analyse der programmtechnischen Möglichkeiten von E-Views [The implementation of the annual-overlap method in econometric," MPRA Paper 19435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Barabas, György & Döhrn, Roland & Spitznagel, Eugen, 2006. "Konjunktur und Arbeitsmarkt : Simulationen und Projektionen mit der IAB-Version des RWI-Konjunkturmodells," IAB-Forschungsbericht 200620, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    2. Quaas, Georg, 2009. "Die Umsetzung der Annual-Overlap-Methode in ökonometrischen Modellen – eine Analyse der programmtechnischen Möglichkeiten von E-Views [The implementation of the annual-overlap method in econometric," MPRA Paper 19435, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Quaas, Georg, 2009. "Realgrößen und Preisindizes im alten und im neuen VGR-System [Macro-economic aggregates in real terms and price indices in the old and the new system of national accounts]," MPRA Paper 22316, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Apr 2010.
    4. Flor Michael, 2014. "Post reunification economic fluctuations in Germany: a real business cycle interpretation," Review of Business and Economics Studies, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации» (Финансовый университет), issue 4, pages 5-17.
    5. Michael Flor, 2014. "Post Reunification Economic Fluctuations in Germany: A Real Business Cycle Interpretation," Working Papers 146, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    6. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Preisbereinigtes Bruttoinlandsprodukt: Zur Veröffentlichungspraxis im Gemeinschaftsgutachten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(09), pages 15-18, May.
    7. Barabas, György & Döhrn, Roland, 2008. "Kurzfristige Arbeitsmarktanalyse und -projektionen: Weiterentwicklung, Aktualisierung und Anwendungsberatung der Arbeitsmarkt (IAB)-Version des RWI-Konjunkturmodells. IAB-Projekt 2-33-A. Endbericht - ," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 70892.
    8. Feil, Michael & Klinger, Sabine & Zika, Gerd, 2006. "Sozialabgaben und Beschäftigung : Simulationen mit drei makroökonomischen Modellen," IAB-Discussion Paper 200622, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    9. Michael Berlemann & Beate Henschel & Beate Schirwitz & Gerit Vogt, 2005. "Entwicklung von Wirtschaft und Arbeitsmarkt in Sachsen und Ostdeutschland 2005/2006," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 12(04), pages 3-10, August.
    10. Timo Schmid & Markus Zwick, 2018. "Vorwort der Herausgeber," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 12(3), pages 189-193, December.
    11. Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose, 2007. "Aufschwung legt Pause ein," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(20), pages 03-58, October.
    12. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2020. "ifo Handbuch der Konjunkturumfragen," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 88.
    13. Quaas, Georg, 2019. "Die Dimensionsanalyse und ihre Anwendung in der Ökonomik [Dimensional analysis and its application in economics]," MPRA Paper 93224, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Quaas, Georg, 2006. "Ganzheitliche Wirkungen von Dummyvariablen auf die Prognosegenauigkeit ökonometrischer Modelle – analysiert am Beispiel des RWI-Konjunkturmodells KM59 [Holistic effects of dummy variables on the fo," MPRA Paper 19028, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Dec 2009.
    15. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Vierteljährliche volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen für Sachsen mit Hilfe temporaler Disaggregation," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(04), pages .24-36, August.
    16. Isabel Hanisch & Elisabeth Wieland & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2015. "Entwicklung der deutschen Investitionstätigkeit imeuropäischen Vergleich: Die Rolle von Preis- undMengeneffekten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(16), pages 39-50, August.
    17. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Vorjahrespreisbasis: Rechenregeln für die Aggregation," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(22), pages 12-16, November.
    18. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Vorjahrespreisbasis : Aggregation und Verkettungsdifferenz," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(06), pages 29-33, March.
    19. Magnus Reif & Arno Städtler, 2018. "Investitionen und Leasing: Nachlassende Dynamik," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(13), pages 69-72, July.
    20. Tim Köhler & Jörg Döpke, 2023. "Will the last be the first? Ranking German macroeconomic forecasters based on different criteria," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 797-832, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    RWI business cycle model; price equations; simulation results;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:95292. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.