[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/81604.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating Difference-in-Differences in the Presence of Spillovers

Author

Listed:
  • Clarke, Damian
Abstract
I propose a method for difference-in-differences (DD) estimation in situations where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated locally. This is relevant for a wide variety of cases where spillovers may occur between quasi-treatment and quasi-control areas in a (natural) experiment. A flexible methodology is described to test for such spillovers, and to consistently estimate treatment effects in their presence. This spillover-robust DD method results in two classes of estimands: treatment effects, and “close” to treatment effects. The methodology outlined describes a versatile and non-arbitrary procedure to determine the distance over which treatments propagate, where distance can be defined in many ways, including as a multi-dimensional measure. This methodology is illustrated by simulation, and by its application to estimates of the impact of state-level text-messaging bans on fatal vehicle accidents. Extending existing DD estimates, I document that reforms travel over roads, and have spillover effects in neighbouring non-affected counties. Text messaging laws appear to continue to alter driving behaviour as much as 30 km outside of affected jurisdictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Clarke, Damian, 2017. "Estimating Difference-in-Differences in the Presence of Spillovers," MPRA Paper 81604, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81604
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/81604/1/MPRA_paper_81604.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Structural Equations, Treatment Effects, and Econometric Policy Evaluation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 669-738, May.
    2. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00840901 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Douglas Almond & Lena Edlund & Mårten Palme, 2009. "Chernobyl's Subclinical Legacy: Prenatal Exposure to Radioactive Fallout and School Outcomes in Sweden," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1729-1772.
    4. Bruno Crépon & Esther Duflo & Marc Gurgand & Roland Rathelot & Philippe Zamora, 2013. "Do Labor Market Policies have Displacement Effects? Evidence from a Clustered Randomized Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 531-580.
    5. Jens Ludwig & Douglas L. Miller, 2007. "Does Head Start Improve Children's Life Chances? Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(1), pages 159-208.
    6. Nikolay Doudchenko & Guido W. Imbens, 2016. "Balancing, Regression, Difference-In-Differences and Synthetic Control Methods: A Synthesis," NBER Working Papers 22791, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Manuela Angelucci & Giacomo De Giorgi, 2009. "Indirect Effects of an Aid Program: How Do Cash Transfers Affect Ineligibles' Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 486-508, March.
    8. A. Colin Cameron & Jonah B. Gelbach & Douglas L. Miller, 2008. "Bootstrap-Based Improvements for Inference with Clustered Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(3), pages 414-427, August.
    9. Charles F. Manski, 2013. "Identification of treatment response with social interactions," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 16(1), pages 1-23, February.
    10. Hudgens, Michael G. & Halloran, M. Elizabeth, 2008. "Toward Causal Inference With Interference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 832-842, June.
    11. A. Colin Cameron & Douglas L. Miller, 2015. "A Practitioner’s Guide to Cluster-Robust Inference," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(2), pages 317-372.
    12. Imbens, Guido W. & Lemieux, Thomas, 2008. "Regression discontinuity designs: A guide to practice," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 615-635, February.
    13. William A. Brock & Steven N. Durlauf, 2001. "Discrete Choice with Social Interactions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(2), pages 235-260.
    14. M. Angelucci & V. Di Maro, 2016. "Programme evaluation and spillover effects," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 22-43, March.
    15. Alberto Abadie, 2005. "Semiparametric Difference-in-Differences Estimators," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(1), pages 1-19.
    16. Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, January.
    17. Rosenbaum, Paul R., 2007. "Interference Between Units in Randomized Experiments," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 102, pages 191-200, March.
    18. Ashenfelter, Orley & Card, David, 1985. "Using the Longitudinal Structure of Earnings to Estimate the Effect of Training Programs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 648-660, November.
    19. Marianne Bertrand & Esther Duflo & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 249-275.
    20. Abadie, Alberto & Diamond, Alexis & Hainmueller, Jens, 2010. "Synthetic Control Methods for Comparative Case Studies: Estimating the Effect of California’s Tobacco Control Program," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 105(490), pages 493-505.
    21. Rahi Abouk & Scott Adams, 2013. "Texting Bans and Fatal Accidents on Roadways: Do They Work? Or Do Drivers Just React to Announcements of Bans?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 179-199, April.
    22. Sobel, Michael E., 2006. "What Do Randomized Studies of Housing Mobility Demonstrate?: Causal Inference in the Face of Interference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 1398-1407, December.
    23. Lan Liu & Michael G. Hudgens, 2014. "Large Sample Randomization Inference of Causal Effects in the Presence of Interference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(505), pages 288-301, March.
    24. Craig McIntosh, 2008. "Estimating Treatment Effects from Spatial Policy Experiments: An Application to Ugandan Microfinance," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(1), pages 15-28, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ruonan Xu, 2023. "Difference-in-Differences with Interference," Papers 2306.12003, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    2. Yun Yang & Feng Hao & Xingchen Meng, 2024. "How does the national e-commerce demonstration city pilot policy boost economic growth? Evidence from China," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 929-975, November.
    3. Wang, Yupeng & Shimokawa, Satoru, 2024. "A trade-off between lives and the economy? Subsidizing dining out under the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    4. Andrea Cinque & Lennart Reiners, 2022. "Confined to Stay: Natural Disasters and Indonesia's Migration Ban," CESifo Working Paper Series 9837, CESifo.
    5. Zhao, Renjie & Zhang, Jiakai, 2022. "Rent-tax substitution and its impact on firms: Evidence from housing purchase limits policy in China," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    6. Gong, Da & Shang, Zhuocheng & Su, Yaqin & Yan, Andong & Zhang, Qi, 2024. "Economic impacts of China's zero-COVID policies," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Tongyue Zhang & Mengyang Hou & Liqi Chu & Lili Wang, 2022. "Can the Establishment of National Key Ecological Function Areas Enhance Vegetation Carbon Sink? A Quasi-Natural Experiment Evidence from China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(19), pages 1-21, September.
    8. Kyle Butts, 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with Geocoded Microdata," Papers 2110.10192, arXiv.org.
    9. Kyle Butts, 2021. "Difference-in-Differences Estimation with Spatial Spillovers," Papers 2105.03737, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2023.
    10. Mitze, Timo & Breidenbach, Philipp, 2023. "The complex regional effects of macro-institutional shocks: Evidence from EU economic integration over three decades," Ruhr Economic Papers 1007, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    11. Garz, Marcel & Schneider, Andrea, 2023. "Data sharing and tax enforcement: Evidence from short-term rentals in Denmark," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    12. Pan, Xian & Yu, Lihong, 2024. "Do China's pilot emissions trading schemes lead to domestic carbon leakage? Perspective from the firm relocation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. Castillo, Emilio, 2021. "The impacts of profit-based royalties on early-stage mineral exploration," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Xu, Hao & Xu, Jingxuan & Wang, Jie & Hou, Xiang, 2023. "Reduce production or increase efficiency? Hazardous air pollutants regulation, energy use, and the synergistic effect on industrial enterprises' carbon emission," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    15. Paul Aseete & Andrew Barkley & Enid Katungi & Michael Adrogu Ugen & Eliud Birachi, 2023. "Public–private partnership generates economic benefits to smallholder bean growers in Uganda," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(1), pages 201-218, February.
    16. Fiorini, Mario & Lee, Wooyong & Pfeifer, Gregor, 2024. "A Simple Approach to Staggered Difference-in-Differences in the Presence of Spillovers," IZA Discussion Papers 16868, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Mitze, Timo & Breidenbach, Philipp, 2018. "Economic integration and growth at the margin: A space-time incremental impact analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 775, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    18. Pelster, Matthias, 2024. "Leverage constraints and investors' choice of underlyings," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    19. Li, Wen & Peng, Qing, 2023. "Digital courts and corporate investment in sustainability: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    20. Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2023. "The impact of upzoning on housing construction in Auckland," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    21. Qiao, Qiao & Zeng, Xianhai & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Mitigating wind curtailment risk in China: The impact of subsidy reduction policy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    22. Butts, Kyle, 2023. "JUE Insight: Difference-in-differences with geocoded microdata," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guido W. Imbens & Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2009. "Recent Developments in the Econometrics of Program Evaluation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(1), pages 5-86, March.
    2. Sarah Baird & Aislinn Bohren & Craig McIntosh & Berk Ozler, 2017. "Optimal Design of Experiments in the Presence of Interference*, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 16-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 30 Nov 2017.
    3. Gonzalo Vazquez-Bare, 2017. "Identification and Estimation of Spillover Effects in Randomized Experiments," Papers 1711.02745, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    4. Jeffrey Smith & Arthur Sweetman, 2016. "Viewpoint: Estimating the causal effects of policies and programs," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 49(3), pages 871-905, August.
    5. Dmitry Arkhangelsky & Guido Imbens, 2023. "Causal Models for Longitudinal and Panel Data: A Survey," Papers 2311.15458, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2024.
    6. Huber, Martin & Steinmayr, Andreas, 2017. "A Framework for Separating Individual Treatment Effects From Spillover, Interaction, and General Equilibrium Effects," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 21, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    7. van der Klaauw, Bas, 2014. "From micro data to causality: Forty years of empirical labor economics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 88-97.
    8. Yann Bramoullé & Habiba Djebbari & Bernard Fortin, 2020. "Peer Effects in Networks: A Survey," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 603-629, August.
    9. Michael Pollmann, 2020. "Causal Inference for Spatial Treatments," Papers 2011.00373, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    10. Sviták, Jan & Tichem, Jan & Haasbeek, Stefan, 2021. "Price effects of search advertising restrictions," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    11. Denis Fougère & Nicolas Jacquemet, 2020. "Policy Evaluation Using Causal Inference Methods," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03455978, HAL.
    12. DiTraglia, Francis J. & García-Jimeno, Camilo & O’Keeffe-O’Donovan, Rossa & Sánchez-Becerra, Alejandro, 2023. "Identifying causal effects in experiments with spillovers and non-compliance," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1589-1624.
    13. Sourafel Girma & Yundan Gong & Holger Görg & Sandra Lancheros, 2016. "Estimating direct and indirect effects of foreign direct investment on firm productivity in the presence of interactions between firms," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: MULTINATIONAL ENTERPRISES AND HOST COUNTRY DEVELOPMENT, chapter 12, pages 227-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    14. Roth, Jonathan & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C. & Bilinski, Alyssa & Poe, John, 2023. "What’s trending in difference-in-differences? A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 2218-2244.
    15. Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Ferreira, Fernando, 2015. "Causal Inference in Urban and Regional Economics," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 3-68, Elsevier.
    16. Lina Zhang, 2020. "Spillovers of Program Benefits with Missing Network Links," Papers 2009.09614, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2024.
    17. Debopam Bhattacharya & Pascaline Dupas & Shin Kanaya, 2013. "Estimating the Impact of Means-tested Subsidies under Treatment Externalities with Application to Anti-Malarial Bednets," CREATES Research Papers 2013-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    18. Francis J. DiTraglia & Camilo Garcia-Jimeno & Rossa O'Keeffe-O'Donovan & Alejandro Sanchez-Becerra, 2020. "Identifying Causal Effects in Experiments with Spillovers and Non-compliance," Papers 2011.07051, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.
    19. Huber, Martin, 2019. "An introduction to flexible methods for policy evaluation," FSES Working Papers 504, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, University of Freiburg/Fribourg Switzerland.
    20. David Choi, 2017. "Estimation of Monotone Treatment Effects in Network Experiments," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 112(519), pages 1147-1155, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Policy evaluation; difference-in-differences; spillovers; natural experiments; SUTVA;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • D04 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Policy: Formulation; Implementation; Evaluation
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:81604. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.