[go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/79530.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Indonesia towards 2030 and beyond: A Long-Run International Trade Foresight

Author

Listed:
  • Verico, Kiki
Abstract
One of the most important variables in the emerging economies like Indonesia is the stability of the exchange rate. Unstable exchange rates make it almost impossible for all business ventures to plan the business. The higher the depreciation of the Rupiah the higher the inflation rate and this will decrease people's purchasing power. In the balance of payments, the stability of the exchange rate and capital account are strongly influenced by the current account balance. A study found that in Indonesia, in the long run (Johansen Procedure) Indonesia current account balance affects the real exchange rate while in the short run (VECM) it affects the nominal exchange rate. The study also found that in the current account balance the one that affecting the exchange rate is the trade balance. Indonesia's trade balance relies on a surplus of trade in goods, especially agricultural products, petroleum and gas. The price of products in the primary sector is very vulnerable because of the volatility of primary products due to that of world’s oil and gas price. Indonesia's current account balance is highly dependent on manufacturing product trade. Another study found that in real-world, manufacturing trade influences more the capital flows than vice versa. Therefore, in order to maintain a positive long-term economic growth and stable exchange rate, Indonesia must increase its trade competitiveness, especially in the manufacturing sector. This paper will explore the challenges and opportunities of international trade in Indonesia towards 2030 and afterwards.

Suggested Citation

  • Verico, Kiki, 2017. "Indonesia towards 2030 and beyond: A Long-Run International Trade Foresight," MPRA Paper 79530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79530
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79530/1/MPRA_paper_79530.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79645/1/MPRA_paper_79645.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/79665/1/MPRA_paper_79665.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David Amaglobeli & Wei Shi, 2016. "How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts: A Granular Approach," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 2016/002, International Monetary Fund.
    2. David Amaglobeli & Wei Shi, 2016. "How to Assess Fiscal Implications of Demographic Shifts; A Granular Approach," IMF Fiscal Affairs Department 16/02, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Verico, Kiki, 2018. "Does Indonesia’s macroeconomic work well towards the political year?," MPRA Paper 86164, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kiki Verico, 2021. "Global Pandemic 2020: Indonesia’s Output Gap and Middle-Income Trap Scenario," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 202157, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised 2021.
    3. Kiki Verico, 2018. "Does Indonesia’s Macroeconomic Work Well Towards the Political Year?," LPEM FEBUI Working Papers 201819, LPEM, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, revised Apr 2018.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Junlae Kim & Seiyong Kim, 2020. "The Impact of Population Characteristics and Government Budgets on the Sustainability of Public Buildings in Korea’s Regional Cities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Diego Wachs & Jorge Onrubia, 2021. "Automatic adjustment mechanisms in public pension reforms: Effects over fiscal sustainability, adequacy, and fairness," Working Papers 2021-05, FEDEA.
    3. Ms. Majdeline El Rayess & Avril Halstead & Jason Harris & Mr. John Ralyea & Alexander F. Tieman, 2019. "Indonesia's Public Wealth: A Balance Sheet Approach to Fiscal Policy Analysis," IMF Working Papers 2019/081, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Szunomár, Ágnes, 2019. "A digitális nagy ugrás. Lassulás és modernizációs stratégiaváltás Kínában [The great digital leap. Deceleration and a change in modernisation strategy in China]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1312-1346.
    5. Werding, Martin & Läpple, Benjamin & Schirner, Sebastian, 2024. "Modellrechnungen für den Sechsten Tragfähigkeitsbericht des BMF," FiFo Reports - FiFo-Berichte 33, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    6. Mr. Fabien Gonguet & Klaus-Peter Hellwig, 2019. "Public Wealth in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2019/139, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long-run foresight; international trade; 2030 and beyond; Indonesia; Indonesia economy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • F63 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Economic Development
    • L66 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - Food; Beverages; Cosmetics; Tobacco
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:79530. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.